Newmac 2016

Mr.Right · October 01, 2016, 12:50:53 PM

Babson up 1-0 on Whearon at halftime. Wheaton has had some chances to score but could not finish.

Mr.Right · October 01, 2016, 12:59:27 PM

Coast Guard defeats MIT 1-0. MIT had a great chance to tie the game with 30 seconds left after service from the flank got past 3 Coast Guard defenders to find a kid WIDE open with the ball at his feet. It was a tight angle but it was just him staring at the GK rand he proceeds to shoot a half shanked shot right at the GK..Coast Guard survives 1-0. I wonder if Amherst wore MIT down 3 days ago and maybe they were not fully ready to go.

Mr.Right · October 01, 2016, 01:32:51 PM

Wheaton ties it up against Babson 1-1 in a must game for both teams in reality. Wheaton playing much better 2nd Half and have Babson on their heels for a good portion of the half.

Off Pitch · October 03, 2016, 03:51:09 PM

Current NEWMAC standings (10/3/16):

1. Springfield 2-0-1 (9-0-1) The Pride has impressively outscored their opponents 42-5 this season, and they notched their best win of the season Saturday against previously unbeaten Clark. Despite having already played one of the weakest schedules in recent memory, only 3 of their remaining 8 opponents have a winning record (at WPI, Babson, at Coast Guard). Their opponents thus far now have a combined record of 38-55-5 (increased from 0.358 to 0.413 with the inclusion of Clark's 9-1 record). I think they will suffer their first loss of the season Saturday at WPI.

2. Clark 2-1-0 (9-1-0) The young Cougars continue to be the surprise team of the conference. Having lost to Springfield this past weekend and then traveling to Babson Saturday, they will likely have taken a couple of steps back to reality. With Babson, MIT, Emerson and Wheaton remaining, a win against Emerson and a win or tie against any of the other three puts Clark into the conference tournament for the first time since 2009.

3. WPI 2-1-0 (7-1-2) Defense keeps the Engineers in games. They have only yielded 5 goals on the season.
Coast Guard 2-1-0 (7-2-1) They play hard and don't beat themselves. So far this season, that has been enough.
Babson 2-1-0 (5-4-2) The Beavers have played the conference's most difficult schedule. They are a solid side, but a season total of 13 goals is a concern.

6. MIT 1-2-0 (4-5-0) As predicted, the Engineers have fallen back through the pack. With conference games remaining with Wheaton, Clark, Springfield and WPI, their descent should continue.
Add in games with Brandeis and Mass-Boston, and MIT is looking at a losing season and the likelihood of missing the conference tournament.

7. Wheaton 0-2-1 (6-5-1) The Lyons finish with MIT, Emerson, Coast Guard and Clark. They will probably have to win 3 of those games just to qualify for the conference tournament. They also have to travel to Trinity and Wesleyan in the midst of the final stretch.

8. Emerson 0-3-0 (2-7-0) They have now been outscored 35-4 in their last 10 conference games and are still seeking their first ever conference win.

Mr.Right · October 04, 2016, 10:20:32 AM

Newmac could be a 2 bid league this year if Springfield wins the conference tournament. Clark and WPI, if they continue winning will be in the hunt for a Pool C as they have both played reasonable schedules and both should have SOS's of .560-.565. That is not great but it would be enough unless they rack up 3 more losses. Springfield's schedule is so weak that they will not get a Pool C even if they run the table IMO. First, I do not think they will run the table and second their SOS will be around .525 and that is generous and they will have a terribly weak OWP.

Off Pitch · October 09, 2016, 01:45:43 PM

Current NEWMAC standings (10/9/16):

1. Springfield 3-0-1 (11-0-1) The Pride have scored at least 2 goals in every game this season, and have outscored their competition 48-7. They host Babson next Saturday in a battle for first place.

2. Babson 3-1-0 (6-4-3) The Beavers are unbeaten in their last 6 games against the likes of Mass-Boston, Clark, Wheaton, Bowdoin and MIT.

3. Clark 2-2-0 (10-2-0)
Coast Guard 2-2-0 (8-3-1)
WPI 2-2-0 (7-2-3)

Coast Guard's loss to Emerson puts them in danger of not finishing in the top 5 and making the conference tournament. With games left at WPI, Wheaton and Springfield, the WPI game becomes a must win.
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6. Wheaton 1-2-1 (7-6-1) The Lyons finish with Emerson, Coast Guard and Clark. They have been inconsistent but remain a dangerous side. Surprisingly, they have surrendered 22 goals on the season - the most in the conference.

7. MIT 1-3-0 (4-7-0)
Emerson 1-3-0 (3-7-0)

The Engineers have lost 6 in a row and finish with Clark, Springfield and WPI. They also have a non-conference game with Mass-Boston. The probability of a top 5 conference finish is remote. Congratulations to Emerson on their first ever NEWMAC win.

Off Pitch · October 15, 2016, 06:04:22 PM

Current NEWMAC standings (10/15/16):

1 Babson 4-1-0 (7-4-3) The Beavers gave Springfield their first loss of the season to move into first. Babson faces NE #9 Endicott tomorrow and finishes the conference season with WPI at home and Emerson on the road. A regular season championship and conference tournament hosting look probable.

2. Springfield 3-1-1 (12-1-1) The Pride suffered their first loss today. Their attempt to play Amherst-style soccer worked very well against their weak non-conference slate but not so much against better quality. They finish at MIT and at Coast Guard - two very winnable games should Babson stumble.

3. Clark 3-2-0 (12-2-0) The Cougars, who face Brandeis Wednesday, finish their conference schedule at Emerson and at Wheaton. One more win should assure them of a conference tournament qualifying position.

4. Coast Guard 2-2-1 (8-3-2) Finishes with Wheaton and Springfield
WPI 2-2-1 (7-2-4) Still has Babson and MIT
Wheaton 2-2-1 (9-6-1) Closes with Coast guard and Clark.

One of these three teams will likely miss the conference tournament. Coast Guard is in the most perilous position.
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7. MIT 1-4-0 (4-8-1)
Emerson 1-4-0 (4-8-0)

Off Pitch · October 24, 2016, 11:38:27 AM

Current NEWMAC standings (10/22/16):

1. Babson 5-1-0 (9-4-3) The Beavers are now unbeaten in their last 9 games having dispatched Endicott and regionally ranked WPI last week. A win or tie at Emerson clinches the NEWMAC regular season championship and hosting responsibilities for the conference tournament.

2. Springfield 4-1-1 (14-1-1) The Pride have racked up 59 goals in winning an impressive 14 games already this season. They were ranked 7th in New England in last week's NSCAA rankings, but they were nowhere to be found in the "real" NCAA regional rankings due to their abysmal sub .500 SOS. With road games remaining at Fitchburg St (4-10-1) and at Coast Guard (9-3-3), they may be able to being their SOS up to the .500 level. They must beat Coast Guard and have Babson lose to Emerson to win the regular season championship. Senior Luke Alvaro leads the conference in scoring with 18 goals.

3. Clark 4-2-0 (13-3-0) The Cougars have secured their first appearance in the conference tournament since 2009. They were a surprising 3rd in the NCAA regional rankings released last week, but they will likely slip a bit with their loss to Brandeis and narrow 1-0 win at Emerson.

4. Coast Guard 2-2-2 (9-3-3) Hosts Springfield
Wheaton 2-2-2 (9-6-2) Hosts Clark
6. WPI 2-3-1 (8-3-4) Hosts MIT

One of these three teams will not qualify for the conference tournament. Coast Guard (regionally ranked #11) must beat Springfield and Wheaton must beat Clark if WPI (regionally ranked #9) wins against MIT as expected. As Coast Guard and Wheaton tied 4-4 on Saturday, I believe Coast Guard would win the tiebreaker (win vs #1 Babson ) should both lose Saturday.
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7. MIT 1-5-0 (4-10-1) Winless in their last 10 games.
Emerson 1-5-0 (4-10-0) Have scored just 2 goals in 6 conference games.

Off Pitch · October 29, 2016, 09:24:40 PM

Babson hosts the conference tournament by winning the regular season championship. WPI is on the outside looking in with a 6th place finish thanks to a loss to MIT.

#5 Coast Guard plays #4 Wheaton Wednesday

Babson, Springfield and Clark may still have some hope for a Pool C bid to the NCAA tournament if they are not the AQ. Springfield's (16-1-1) SOS will have improved by playing an away game vs. Coast Guard and will improve further when they play Clark.

1. Babson 11-4-3
2. Springfield 16-1-1
3. Clark 14-4-0
4. Wheaton 10-6-2
5. Coast Guard 9-5-3

Mr.Right · October 30, 2016, 05:32:58 PM

I do not think Clark or Springfield would have any chance at a Pool C. I would even suggest Babson win/draw their Semi-Final or they will be on the bubble. The right side of the bubble but still on the bubble. Babson will get a Pool C if they were to lose in the Newmac Final.

NOTE: Watch out for Wheaton as they are playing some very good futbol of late especially in the league. Besides losing a 4-1 lead v Coast Guard in the 2nd Half and drawing the game 4-4 they have played very well. They can score goals against ANY of the other Newmac schools it's just can their defense and GK'ing hold up to win this tournament. I think it can and I will predict Wheaton winning the Newmac Tournament. It will be tough but Cushing will get his boys motivated.

Off Pitch · November 01, 2016, 02:58:04 PM

Since the release of the Oct 28 data sheet which showed Springfield with a .480 SOS, they have had two away games against teams with a combined record of 14-16-4 (.471). With the away game multiplier of 1.25, this becomes approximately .589. Weighted as 1/9 of their total schedule, this yields an updated SOS still under .500 at about .495. Conclusion: Springfield will almost certainly still not be ranked in the 11/2 rankings.

Assuming that conference tournament games count in calculating final SOS, their number should rise to above .500 this week. The Clark game alone would bring them up to approximately .510.

Beat Clark on Saturday and Springfield sits at 17-1-1 with a .510 SOS and a RvR of 2-1. Would that be enough for them to get Pool C consideration?

Flying Weasel · November 01, 2016, 03:47:51 PM

Well, last year after wining their Landmark semifinal match, Elizabethtown sat at 17-1-1 (.921) with a 2-1-0 RvR and a SOS that was probably about .520 (it was .525 before the conference semifinal and Catholic's win pct. was .444 which reduces to .378 due to .85 home multiplier, but that's balanced out some with by Catholic's .582 SOS). E-town then lost in the Landmark final to dropping to 17-2-1 (.875), RvR still 2-1-0, and their SOS still approx. .520. And they were not given an at-large berth despite being ranked #4 in the Mid-Atlantic region in the 2nd and 3rd published rankings.

If Springfield won their semifinal they would be in a similar, but not as good, position as E-town last year going into the final: same record/win pct. (17-1-1), same RvR (2-1-0), but a lower SOS (0.510 versus .520), and unranked in weeks 1 and 2 (maybe 3 as well) while E-town was ranked reasonably high all three weeks (#3-#4-#4). If we are talking of at-large consideration, we are assuming a conference final tie or loss dropping Springfield into Pool C. And that final loss or tie will somewhat counter a semifinal win. If Springfield does not show up in tomorrow's rankings--and if you are right about their SOS, it doesn't look like it--then I don't see how they get into consideration. At best they might just crack into the regional rankings, but certainly not high enough to ever get into the conversation, IMO.

Mr.Right · November 01, 2016, 06:53:40 PM

Absolutely...Springfield must win the AQ and if they do not then the blame for the schedule will all be on the coach as he will need a major upgrade. There is no reason they cannot play 2-3 Nescac teams like Trinity and Wesleyan which are 30 minutes away. They used to play Brandeis. In fact they used to play under former coach Peter Haley the Little 3 of Williams, Amherst and Wesleyan. With their conference they should be able to find an out of conference schedule that would get them to a .550-.560 SOS yearly. It would be a total waste if they do not make it because they are not a great side but a good side with 2-3 legit players.

Off Pitch · November 01, 2016, 07:15:01 PM

I agree and would always err to the side of a team that played a more challenging schedule. This season Springfield played the following 11 non-conference opponents:

Lassell 1-17-0 (last in the GNAC)
W. Conn 6-10-1 (4th in the LEC)
Elms 5-13-1 (5th in the NECC
Westfield St 8-7-2 (7th in the MASCAC)
Anna Maria 2-13-1 (9th in the GNAC)
Keene St 8-8-2 (6th in the LEC)
S. Vermont 4-10-3 (7th in the NECC)
Framingham St 8-11-0 (3rd in the MASCAC)
W. New England 10-9-0 (4th in the CCC)
Suffolk 9-10-0 (4th in the GNAC)
Fitchburg St 6-11-1 (6th in the MASCAC)

Not a single team that contended for a conference championship and only 4 that finished in the top half of their respective conferences.

Mr.Right · November 01, 2016, 08:00:28 PM

Quote from: Off Pitch on November 01, 2016, 07:15:01 PM
I agree and would always err to the side of a team that played a more challenging schedule. This season Springfield played the following 11 non-conference opponents:

Lassell 1-17-0 (last in the GNAC)
W. Conn 6-10-1 (4th in the LEC)
Elms 5-13-1 (5th in the NECC
Westfield St 8-7-2 (7th in the MASCAC)
Anna Maria 2-13-1 (9th in the GNAC)
Keene St 8-8-2 (6th in the LEC)
S. Vermont 4-10-3 (7th in the NECC)
Framingham St 8-11-0 (3rd in the MASCAC)
W. New England 10-9-0 (4th in the CCC)
Suffolk 9-10-0 (4th in the GNAC)
Fitchburg St 6-11-1 (6th in the MASCAC)

Not a single team that contended for a conference championship and only 4 that finished in the top half of their respective conferences.

Some of those teams could be kept on the schedule like Keens St, WNEC(rivalry game), Elms(good distance), Westfield St(good distance) and WCONN.

Teams THAT MUST be dropped and absolutely should NEVER be on Springfield's schedule are: Southern VT, Anna Maria, and Lasell. Those 3 teams and wins killed them

Newmac 2016

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