2016 North Region

[dontshootthegoose]

Region Predictions:

Another year of D3 soccer and another year with Loras on top. I expect Loras's reign to continue strong this year, partly with a softer schedule and partly with a weaker region.

Had the opportunity to watch UWW-Macalaster, was not thoroughly impressed with either side. UWW relied on their typical big ball... relied would be an understatement. They have the capabilities to play good soccer in the midfield but look too narrowly at set pieces and throw-ins.  Macalaster really struggled with UWW's athleticism and could not posses the ball. But they had a couple spurts where I saw the Macalaster that only lost 1 game last year (don't quote me on their losses).

A lot of people are talking about St. Thomas having a good year... from their results I think that conclusion may be in jeopardy. A win, but a very undermining win against Northwestern as well as a tie against Colorado College. I'll wait and see to make a conclusion on them.


Dubuque, Wartburg, Luther look to be stronger than years past. Dubuque yet to concede a goal and are blowing out competition. Wartburg has fireworks for offense, but were beat 3-1 to a far more possessive Macalaster team.  Luther... two subpar wins, but have the roster to be talented.

Think St. Scholastica is down this year but they play in a high school level conference, so of course they will be tournament bound.

St. Norberts and Platteville are both teams that could have a "dark-horse" like year. Haven't played anyone yet but have been steadily on the incline for the past couple years.

Games to watch this weekend:

Norberts against Olaf, at Loras

Platteville at CUW, at Marian

Luther vs Knox

Warburg vs St. John's and Knox

[Cheesehead Henry]

Looks like Wartburg tied St. Johns today. Will be interesting to see how they respond tomorrow against Knox. Wartburg started strong but fizzled out in the middle 45 minutes only to come around at the end for a tie.

[dontshootthegoose]

Could this be the year Dubuque is the best team in their own city?!

Own thoughts, Loras has taken a significant drop relative to recent years. Meanwhile, the rest of the IIAC is catching up.  Luther, Dubuque, Simpson, Wartburg.

Mac, St. Thomas, and HAMLINE!! Are looking like the cream of the crop up in the MIAC.

St. Norberts looks to be rolling this year.

Platteville and Whitewater will always be in the mix as well. That should be an interesting race for the Pool B between the two.

Overall, I do think this region is steps behind the others. If you look at the Central region, teams like Chicago, Wash U, Calvin... I do not see a team in this region that could top those three.

[Wisco21]

Little late to the party this year lads. Goose is absolutely correct in the North being down this year.....head scratching some of these results. Unless there is a serious turnaround in the second half of the season, North region will be hard pressed to find a Pool C bid.

Early Postseason predictions:

IIAC - Luther has my attention. Dubuque is looking good this year as well, but they have yet to play the other "big 3" (Loras, Wartburg, Luther) so I will hold my tongue for now, especially as we venture into the heart of regular season conference play.

MIAC - Macalester continuing from where they left off in 2015. The Scots have only conceded 4 goals so far, could see them finishing the regular season without another loss. Will St. Thomas bottle it again this year? I think/hope they can figure it out- undefeated so far but still have Luther, CSS, MAC. All other MIAC schools with too many blemishes, would need AQ.

UMAC - Usually Scholastica. Don't think UW Superior would put up too much of a fight but who knows with this conference.

Pool B - Could it come down to whoever wins the UWW-UWP match on 10/16? UWW has more opportunity to hold a better RvR. Not really impressed with either squad yet. Is UWW relaxing a bit knowing that they don't have to worry about competition from UW Oshkosh? Platteville hasn't seemed like they have taken advantage either. Warhawks do have a win against Loras, but how much value will that hold at the end of the season? Whitewater has final match vs. Wash-U to collect a signature victory. However, if Platteville wins out, could be interesting at 14-4 with wins against Wartburg, UWW, Dubuque. Toss up for me.

MWC - St. Norberts has done well. Knox quietly at 9-3. Lake Forest always in the mix.

Predicted Regional Rankings this week:
1.) Macalester - Still like them for top dawg even with the loss away to Luther.
2.) Luther - Win vs. MAC and only loss to a strong Wash-U side.
3.) Dubuque - Have met expectations so far.
4.) St. Thomas - Undefeated but also untested.
5-10.)

[dontshootthegoose]

Nice post Wisco, and welcome back!

IIAC- I am in the same boat as you with this one. Luther is the clear favorite. #17 in the nation with a huge win against Macalaster two days back... they are on a roll. But a 4-0 loss to Wash U just shows this years lackluster North Region. Dubuque with only one loss is rolling as well, not the same schedule of Luther however. But a 2-1 ot win against Nebraska Wesleyan... yikes. Loras is down this year, I think they can pull it together for a decent run during conference tournament time, but I do not expect them to make the national tournament (unless they get the Oshkosh/Dominican treatment).

MIAC- I think this is the worst year in terms of strength they have had in years. Macalaster is slumping and has yet to have an impressive win, St. Olaf would be the 5/6 best team in the IIAC, and St. Thomas has yet to play anybody that will be even remotely close to the NCAA Tournament. The winner will be one of those three teams, but don't expect them to go far in the National Tourney.

UMAC- Arguably the worst conference in the nation, Scholastica has been underwhelming. Of course smashing their lesser opponents but losing key games to Knox, Loras, St. Olaf, Mac.   

Pool B-  UWW 7-3-2, biggest W is against Loras (who may not be regionally ranked) and Webster/Westminister (who neither will be regionally ranked), they did pull a tie against Luther and Mac, two regionally ranked opponents.

UWP- 8-4. biggest W against nobody, and 3 losses to regionally ranked opponents.

I think this just reflects how down this region is this year and how lucky the winner of these two should feel for being in an abysmal pool B bracket.

Winner will come down to head to head match up.

MWC- Knox, only a 1-0 loss to Chicago is a statement in my eyes.


Predicted Regional Rankings
1. Luther
2. Mac
3. Dubuque
4. St. Thomas
5. Knox
6-10, who knows

[Wisco21]

Another weekend packed full of north region matches and more perplexing results...you can't make this stuff up. St. Thomas is the only team still alive IMO, however they only have one solid win against a declining Macalester side. Luther is on thin ice at 9-2-2 (which would be a decent record anywhere else in the nation). The Norse haven't played too many cupcakes but who knows what is going to be considered a "good win" come November. They host Dubuque tomorrow. And speaking of UD, Dubuque dumps a 3-nil shocker to 7-6-1 Simpson and Wartburg also gets skunked, giving up three goals to Platteville. Both losses coming after big midweek wins for Sparty and Warty. Loras is at 6-4 and will travel to Waverly tomorrow to take on the Knights. Whitewater drops all three points to..... ST NORBERT COLLEGE?!?! At this point, UWP and UWW should just flip a coin for the Pool B bid. Even with as good of a year St. Norbert is having, I still think they have to win conference as the MWC just isn't strong enough yet to reap a Pool C.

I want my old north region back.

[WarhawkFan]

UWP vs UWW:  This past week definitely made the Pool B race closer, but even with the rather lackluster results in the last couple of games UWW is still in the driver's seat.  They've got a top 10 SOS in the country compared to UWP somewhere in the 200's, with their only poor loss against Augustana.  The number of blemishes for UWW is troubling though, so they're definitely not doing this in convincing fashion.  UWP has to win out to really have a chance.  Even a tie against UWW could sink their chances, barring a UWW meltdown. 

[casualfan]

Something to watch....

http://d3soccer.com/seasons/men/2016/pool-b-teams

Although it looks like New Rochelle does not play anyone even remotely good, they have a 11-2 record at the moment.

With 3 games left and a potentail 14-2 record, could they spoil the Pool B Party?

[Wisco21]

Casualfan,

http://d3soccer.com/teams/New_Rochelle/Men/2016-17/index

Looking at their schedule, only 9 teams are linked, which I'm going to assume means "D3 school". Off those 9, they posted a record of 6-2 (Keystone match not played).

I would be led to believe the NCAA committee would only take that 6-2 record into account when determining the Pool B bid.

[dontshootthegoose]

UWW virtually has the Pool B on lock. They blow out Platteville in basically every statistical category. SOS, Regional wins/ties. And consistently being ranked higher in both massey/hero sports rankings helps. 

I will say this though, they are a little fortunate with Platteville being down and no Oshkosh. This makes this a two-horse race every year for the pool B, the rest of the pool B teams are abysmal. In years past, UWW had stronger profiles than this year and were turned down because of a better resume of an Oshkosh or Platteville. (2012/2013)

[Flying Weasel]

Casualfan,

http://d3soccer.com/teams/New_Rochelle/Men/2016-17/index

Looking at their schedule, only 9 teams are linked, which I'm going to assume means "D3 school". Off those 9, they posted a record of 6-2 (Keystone match not played).

I would be led to believe the NCAA committee would only take that 6-2 record into account when determining the Pool B bid.

New Rochelle is eligible for the NCAA tournament on the basis of their Division III membership, but they will not meet the requirement for at-large selection consideration of playing 70% of their games against Division III in-region opponents because only 9 of their 17 opponents are Division III members (53%).  That is, unless they requested and were granted a waiver, but that is highly doubtful for a variety of reasons, foremost that they do not have a compelling geographical challenge which is the typical reason for requesting and receiving a waiver. 

New Rochelle competes in the Hudson Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (HVIAC) which is not Division III but rather a member conference of the United States Collegiate Athletic Association (USCAA).  The HVIAC, and its predecessor separate men's and women's conferences, have been home to numerous Division III members over the years, many who eventually moved to the Skyline Conference. Of the HVIAC's ten current members, six are full USCAA members and four, including New Rochelle, are affiliate USCAA members. I could imagine that New Rochelle will declare for the USCAA national championship (I'm assuming affiliate members are eligible).  New Rochelle is also an ECAC member, but I'm not sure that the D-III's version of the NIT would select them to their Mid-Atlantic championship given their weak schedule.

[casualfan]

Casualfan,

http://d3soccer.com/teams/New_Rochelle/Men/2016-17/index

Looking at their schedule, only 9 teams are linked, which I'm going to assume means "D3 school". Off those 9, they posted a record of 6-2 (Keystone match not played).

I would be led to believe the NCAA committee would only take that 6-2 record into account when determining the Pool B bid.

New Rochelle is eligible for the NCAA tournament on the basis of their Division III membership, but they will not meet the requirement for at-large selection consideration of playing 70% of their games against Division III in-region opponents because only 9 of their 17 opponents are Division III members (53%).  That is, unless they requested and were granted a waiver, but that is highly doubtful for a variety of reasons, foremost that they do not have a compelling geographical challenge which is the typical reason for requesting and receiving a waiver. 

New Rochelle competes in the Hudson Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (HVIAC) which is not Division III but rather a member conference of the United States Collegiate Athletic Association (USCAA).  The HVIAC, and its predecessor separate men's and women's conferences, have been home to numerous Division III members over the years, many who eventually moved to the Skyline Conference. Of the HVIAC's ten current members, six are full USCAA members and four, including New Rochelle, are affiliate USCAA members. I could imagine that New Rochelle will declare for the USCAA national championship (I'm assuming affiliate members are eligible).  New Rochelle is also an ECAC member, but I'm not sure that the D-III's version of the NIT would select them to their Mid-Atlantic championship given their weak schedule.

Thanks for the clarification FW!

Looks like it will come down to the UW schools then as they're the only other 2 Pool B eligible teams with winning records.

I think Sunday's game will have a lot to do with it despite the statistics saying otherwise..

Having seen both teams play, it should be an interesting battle. Two different styles with neither preferring the ball on the ground. UWP will high press UWW's backline as Rinderknecht from UWP is a handful up top. With 13 goals thus far, I can see him tallying at least one.

UWW will use set pieces to slow the game down and create chance after chance from long throw-ins, corner kicks, and deep free kicks from Stanko. They believe in their set pieces and are willing to throw their bodies around to create chaos in the box for rebounds and tap-ins. If Kayser, Whiteman, Ortiz, and Hottsmith can get on the ball in the attacking third, I think UWW will be more dangerous in the run of play, but that seems to be an outlier throughout the season.

My prediction is 2-1 UWW. Rinderknecht gets one in the first 15-20 minutes. UWW equalizes just after half through Hottsmith. Then with 10 minutes remaining Ortiz gets the winner.

[Wisco21]

Looks about right Casualfan. I do want to note that Platteville is coming off two away wins this previous weekend to good opposition and enjoys a week to prepare while Whitewater travels 3 and half hours to Monmouth tonight and then up to Fond du Lac for Marian this upcoming Saturday.

I will for sure be attending this one live, weather forecast looks to be favorable!

[dontshootthegoose]

Hopefully none of the UWW guy's lose their cool against a rough/hard-working Marian team. That could be one of those sleeper games where UWW is looking forward to Sunday a little too much.

I think it will be 3-0 UWW. Although Platteville does have Rinderknecht, I see Whitewater capitalizing on the "winner takes Pool B" game.
Hottsmith will have 2 and Stanko the third.

[WarhawkFan]

Warhawks took care of business and make the committee's job easy for them.  UWW still has a couple big games to play though which could help in determining what quality opponent they get in the first round of the tournament.