2016 Playoffs

Started by Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat, November 04, 2016, 03:41:12 PM

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Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat

Thought that starting a new thread specific to the 2016 playoffs would make sense...

Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat

It is looking to me like there are any number of teams truly in the hunt for the national title... right now we have zero idea of how good is MUC but their resume speaks for itself... 3 teams from the WIAC are title contenders but it doesn't look all that good for UWP to get in... The MIAC has St Thomas who hasn't been as impressive this season as last and then St Johns and Concordia look to be battling for a Pool C spot... UMHB and HSU battled to a 5 point game.. North Central and Wheaton are from the traditionally tough CCIW.  Linfield is going to be tough, Johns Hopkins has had all sorts of success in the regular season and might this be the year that translates into a run in the playoffs...

HansenRatings

I agree. This season feels more wide open than years previous. I was just looking through tournaments past, and typically there were only two or three teams that would have better than 10% odds of winning the championship based on my ratings, but right now (and this could change drastically based on draws) there are 5 teams with better than 10% odds: IST, UMU, UWW, UWO, and UMHB, with Linfield and some others hovering around 5%.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

emma17

Could this be the year a Pool B/C wins it all?

HansenRatings

Was the NWC an auto-bid conference when PLU and Linfield won? I know they had some years they weren't.

With 2 Top 5 teams coming from B/C, it seems more likely than most years.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

SaintsFAN

Quote from: Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat on November 04, 2016, 03:49:04 PM
It is looking to me like there are any number of teams truly in the hunt for the national title... right now we have zero idea of how good is MUC but their resume speaks for itself... 3 teams from the WIAC are title contenders but it doesn't look all that good for UWP to get in... The MIAC has St Thomas who hasn't been as impressive this season as last and then St Johns and Concordia look to be battling for a Pool C spot... UMHB and HSU battled to a 5 point game.. North Central and Wheaton are from the traditionally tough CCIW.  Linfield is going to be tough, Johns Hopkins has had all sorts of success in the regular season and might this be the year that translates into a run in the playoffs...

JHU's road would go through Alliance and I don't think that's conducive to a "run" for them. 

If you're looking for a team nobody is talking about, I'll take Saint John's or an E8 team.
AMC Champs: 1991-1992-1993-1994-1995
HCAC Champs: 2000, 2001
PAC Champs:  2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Bridge Bowl Champs:  1990-1991-1992-1993-1994-1995-2002-2003-2006-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 (SERIES OVER)
Undefeated: 1991, 1995, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2015
Instances where MSJ quit the Bridge Bowl:  2

wally_wabash

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 04, 2016, 07:23:38 PM
Was the NWC an auto-bid conference when PLU and Linfield won? I know they had some years they weren't.

With 2 Top 5 teams coming from B/C, it seems more likely than most years.

I'm fairly sure the NWC was not an auto-bid league until at least 2006.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

desertcat1

back in the day ,  1999,  PLU was the second place team in the NWC that year 4-1, 
they beat EVERYBODY ON the road to salem, OR and Salem , VA. :-* even the NWC Champ.bearkitties.. 5-0   :)  ture road warrior's.. 8-)

thats what it was like on the Island back then..  "Life was a beach" 8-)
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

MonroviaCat

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 04, 2016, 07:23:38 PM
Was the NWC an auto-bid conference when PLU and Linfield won? I know they had some years they weren't.

With 2 Top 5 teams coming from B/C, it seems more likely than most years.
Autobids started the year PLU won it but they (as has been said) were the 2nd place team that year and the NWC had no autobid.  In 2004, the NWC may have had the autobid--that year we had two teams (in a 28 team field) make the playoffs and Menlo had been part of the conference for a 3 years by then---so I think we had an autobid but can't find anywhere to confirm it.....
Go Cats!

HansenRatings

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2016, 08:31:24 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 04, 2016, 07:23:38 PM
Was the NWC an auto-bid conference when PLU and Linfield won? I know they had some years they weren't.

With 2 Top 5 teams coming from B/C, it seems more likely than most years.
Autobids started the year PLU won it but they (as has been said) were the 2nd place team that year and the NWC had no autobid.  In 2004, the NWC may have had the autobid--that year we had two teams (in a 28 team field) make the playoffs and Menlo had been part of the conference for a 3 years by then---so I think we had an autobid but can't find anywhere to confirm it.....

Part of the reason I only went back to 2005 when I was trying to find trends for Pool C teams. I know they had an auto-bid on 2005 and lost it after Lewis and Clark dropped football for a year.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

Ralph Turner

#10
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 04, 2016, 08:55:12 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2016, 08:31:24 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 04, 2016, 07:23:38 PM
Was the NWC an auto-bid conference when PLU and Linfield won? I know they had some years they weren't.

With 2 Top 5 teams coming from B/C, it seems more likely than most years.
Autobids started the year PLU won it but they (as has been said) were the 2nd place team that year and the NWC had no autobid.  In 2004, the NWC may have had the autobid--that year we had two teams (in a 28 team field) make the playoffs and Menlo had been part of the conference for a 3 years by then---so I think we had an autobid but can't find anywhere to confirm it.....
Conferences have needed to have 7 members to earn an Auto-bid. (The 7 may be be comprised of 4 full members and 3 affiliates). The Northwest

Part of the reason I only went back to 2005 when I was trying to find trends for Pool C teams. I know they had an auto-bid on 2005 and lost it after Lewis and Clark dropped football for a year.
Conference did not have 7 full members until the 2006 season.  I think that is the first year for Pool A for the NWC

Ralph Turner

Quote from: pirat on November 11, 2007, 01:40:52 PM
Yes Bob next year they will have AQ status.  But, I am greedy and want to get 2 or maybe 3 (E8 this year?????? wow) of our teams in.

From the 2007 Playoff Message Board

SaintsFAN

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2016, 08:50:15 PM
Quote from: pirat on November 11, 2007, 01:40:52 PM
Yes Bob next year they will have AQ status.  But, I am greedy and want to get 2 or maybe 3 (E8 this year?????? wow) of our teams in.

From the 2007 Playoff Message Board

Should've saved that for #TBT, Ralph!  WOW, 9 years!
AMC Champs: 1991-1992-1993-1994-1995
HCAC Champs: 2000, 2001
PAC Champs:  2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Bridge Bowl Champs:  1990-1991-1992-1993-1994-1995-2002-2003-2006-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 (SERIES OVER)
Undefeated: 1991, 1995, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2015
Instances where MSJ quit the Bridge Bowl:  2

Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat

So do we gripe this year about the AQ's for teams from non-competitive conferences who provide first round speed bumps (or in some cases 2nd round speed bumps when they are paired against each other in Round 1) or simply accept that is the nature of D3 and move on?

I will always be of the belief that an AQ should only count if a team is ranked in the Top 25 (from whatever polls are in use).  If a team isn't ranked then the AQ goes to pool C.  I'd be much happier with the AQ system if the teams were seeded 1-32 and the bracket was scheduled accordingly.  As it is right now we have a system that is set up for for many great early round matchups that should be in the quarters at worst (but that won't happen unless I win the Powerball and pay for it myself :) ).

smedindy

Well,since everyone disagrees on the polls and what polls to use, then I think we have the best system in all of football. Of course seeding would be great. It would be in all sports. Alas.
Wabash Always Fights!