2016 Playoffs

[USee]

They "eye test" doesn't always work either. The model said Huntington was a 6 point dog to Wheaton and they won by 35. The model and the "eye test" by most said NCC was a double digit favorite the next week and they lost by double digits.

BTW, I will take UWW and give 10% odds to win the Stagg if anyone wants the other side. 

[HansenRatings]

I don't want Hansen's model getting any more accurate.  There'd be no further need for the "eye test".

LOL +k

But you can't expect any of these models to subjectively dig into every single box score and cherry pick which stats are situationally important and which ones aren't.

But that's not going to stop me from trying!

Unlike some others, i am guessing you enjoy the banter and find more value in dissenting opinions than a continual flow of "Awesome Ratings, Logan".

Definitely. Some conversations I've had with people on Twitter have already given me a few ideas on how to improve the model, and not just in its "predictive accuracy," but also to make it more descriptive. I'm a big believer that stats & analytics are best when used to supplement the eye test, team narrative, or game-viewing experience.

[emma17]

They "eye test" doesn't always work either. The model said Huntington was a 6 point dog to Wheaton and they won by 35. The model and the "eye test" by most said NCC was a double digit favorite the next week and they lost by double digits.

BTW, I will take UWW and give 10% odds to win the Stagg if anyone wants the other side. 

Well, what fun would it be if a single model worked all the time?

I know the eye test doesn't always work, but I think much of that has to do with the immeasurable that comes into play. 
I remember in 2014 UWW was playing Wabash in the playoffs.  My eye test told me that Wabash's defense was going to cause all sorts of problems, I even predicted some crazy number of sacks or TFL's for loss against UWW.  UWW had 300 yards passing and was sacked once. 

Does that mean I should stay far away from predictions based on eye tests?  I don't know, I think the Wabash D was pretty darn good that year, and the UWW O lack of consistency, like this year, was giving me cause of concern.  And then the game happened. 
Like 02 said, it's how the players rise to the game. 

[bleedpurple]

Don't let the math get in the way of the "disrespected underdog status" which is a badge Bleed (and a few others) likes to wear with honor whenever possible even if no one else believes it.

Thank you, Usee. At least someone understands. 

Obviously, I'm not going to feel UW-W is disrespected by a mathematical model. I love what Logan does as I've rambled in my other posts. I think HSCoach explained the point well that I was trying to make regarding UW-W and Mount.

But upon further review, I see that the model's ratings have UW-W behind UW-Platteville (3 losses, including at home to UW-W), Oshkosh (loss to UW-W), Mount Union (1 loss), and St John's (2 losses). Is it really naive, biased, or wearing a "disrespected underdog" badge if I ask why the Johnnies and Platteville, at least, have higher ratings than UW-W,  John Carroll and Alma? 

(And LH, I just saw your response. I'm more asking this questions to the guys that went to bat for the results. I think in one of my other posts, I may have even said something like "I doubt very much LH believes that" about one of the results that popped out. Or at least I was going to! Anyway, your stuff is awesome to talk over to get through a week. Thanks again!)

First and foremost, I like the banter and the questions because the alternative is no discussion, opposing views, etc, which would make these boards non existent.

As to the "disrespected underdog" comment I think it's not specific to this particular issue but more of a theme the UWW faithful like to attach themselves to. Whether it's yelling at a math model for disrespecting their chances, or "why aren't we #1 after the stretch we just played" or "we don't have a recruiting advantage", etc, etc. I Don't view any of those things as negative, rather I view them more along the lines of Michael Jordan, who would use anything to fuel his competitive desires. He took a couple of reporter comments that he was a poor defensive player (early in his career) and used it to become DPOY and one of the best defensive players ever. He used comments about his shooting to propel his work to become a prolific shooter of the ball. I view UWW's program, and the posters on here who are alums/close to the program, as having a chip on their shoulder. That same chip is a big part of what makes them great.

I embrace the discussion and the questions. To this point, I  think the model is capturing the "odds" of each team winning. I would think most people would place money on a 6.4% UWW Stagg bowl probability. I certainly wouldn't take the short side of that bet.

USee,
I appreciate the clarification and that's actually a pretty astute observation. I think competitors actually relish being doubted. And I think having a "chip on your shoulder" is good when it can run through a program in a positive way. In reality, UW-W already has that because of the way last year ended.  That chip will stay there until this year ends differently on the field, irrespective of these boards.  As probably a 12 on a 1-10 competitor scale, I definitely see some of my responses as a bit over the top. But hopefully no one takes them personally or I can at least come back and reel things back in a bit from time to time. As a poster I know having a chip on my shoulder is completely unnecessary. But I actually find it fun. How scary is that? 

02,
Wow, I'm very impressed with your transformation! It took me many more years to figure out what you have figured out in a relatively short period of time. I'm trusting it makes following the Hawks more fun and less stressful! 

Wally,
Do you really think I am going to take it as a "compliment" the notion that UW-W would sweep a three game stretch of John Carroll, UW-O, and UMHB  seven time out of 100? Let me get a back brace for my chip and get back to you... 

Pep,
I apologize to you and Pioneer fans everywhere for typing Albright instead of Alfred State in an earlier post. 

[wesleydad]

This is a good week for D3.  These games are really nice.  I expect Mount to win.  I am thinking that UMHB is going to have too much for Wheaton.  The other 2 games are really tough.  UWW has not lit it up this year on offense and after what I saw from JCU last week, their D is legit.  I expect a low scoring game, but think UWW will score enough to win since Wesley held JCU to 7 and Wesley did not have a stellar defense this year.  The last game looks to be great on paper.  I picked Oshkosh to win this bracket so I am going to stick to it, but I expect this to be a real knock down drag out battle.  Good luck to all the teams this weekend.

[02 Warhawk]

02,
Wow, I'm very impressed with your transformation! It took me many more years to figure out what you have figured out in a relatively short period of time. I'm trusting it makes following the Hawks more fun and less stressful! 

I don't know about that...I've been making irrational comments against UWW on these boards since 2007. 

[jamtod]

I think you're also way too hung up on the 7% thing and the perception that it's too small.  It isn't really unreasonable at all.  The path forward is winning against John Carroll, then winning against St. Thomas/UW-Oshkosh (the model appears to have UWW as slight underdogs to either), and then also winning against whoever survives UMHB/Wheaton/UMU/AU (the model will say UMHB more often than the others).  That gauntlet is more daunting than the Morningside/UWO/UWP that Whitewater ran earlier this year.  Is it crazy to think that UWW would win all three of those games, in succession, more than 7 out of 100 times?  I don't think so.  In fact, I think that number gives UWW an immense amount of credit- there aren't more than 3-4 teams that could win those three games in a row more than a few times in 100 chances.

This is an interesting observation, but I'm not convinced that UW-W's path to the championship is significantly more challenging than anybody elses. Every path is very very tough at this time of year, and if every team is totally equal, each team should have a 12.5% chance of winning. The model suggests that UW-W's chance is lower than the mean of remaining teams. For St Thomas or Oshkosh to win it all, they have to get past each other (which I would suggest is a more challenging game than John Carroll) and then past UW-W before facing likely UMHB or North Central. There isn't an easy path in the bunch.

[USee]

They "eye test" doesn't always work either. The model said Huntington was a 6 point dog to Wheaton and they won by 35. The model and the "eye test" by most said NCC was a double digit favorite the next week and they lost by double digits.

BTW, I will take UWW and give 10% odds to win the Stagg if anyone wants the other side. 

Well, what fun would it be if a single model worked all the time?

I know the eye test doesn't always work, but I think much of that has to do with the immeasurable that comes into play. 
I remember in 2014 UWW was playing Wabash in the playoffs.  My eye test told me that Wabash's defense was going to cause all sorts of problems, I even predicted some crazy number of sacks or TFL's for loss against UWW.  UWW had 300 yards passing and was sacked once. 

Does that mean I should stay far away from predictions based on eye tests?  I don't know, I think the Wabash D was pretty darn good that year, and the UWW O lack of consistency, like this year, was giving me cause of concern.  And then the game happened. 
Like 02 said, it's how the players rise to the game.

Agree completely. Well said.

[art76]

This is an interesting observation, but I'm not convinced that UW-W's path to the championship is significantly more challenging than anybody elses. Every path is very very tough at this time of year, and if every team is totally equal, each team should have a 12.5% chance of winning. The model suggests that UW-W's chance is lower than the mean of remaining teams. For St Thomas or Oshkosh to win it all, they have to get past each other (which I would suggest is a more challenging game than John Carroll) and then past UW-W before facing likely UMHB or North Central. There isn't an easy path in the bunch.

Jamto - I think you meant Wheaton...or maybe Mount?

[jamtod]

This is an interesting observation, but I'm not convinced that UW-W's path to the championship is significantly more challenging than anybody elses. Every path is very very tough at this time of year, and if every team is totally equal, each team should have a 12.5% chance of winning. The model suggests that UW-W's chance is lower than the mean of remaining teams. For St Thomas or Oshkosh to win it all, they have to get past each other (which I would suggest is a more challenging game than John Carroll) and then past UW-W before facing likely UMHB or North Central. There isn't an easy path in the bunch.

Jamto - I think you meant Wheaton...or maybe Mount?

Woops. Yes. I meant UMU I guess.

[AUPepBand]

Pep,
I apologize to you and Pioneer fans everywhere for typing Albright instead of Alfred State in an earlier post. 

Well, at least you're in the right town now....just the wrong side. Perhaps you're often found on the wrong side of town?
We here at Alfred are well accustomed to and very much enjoy playing the Rodney Dangerfield role. No harm done. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pep,
I apologize to you and Pioneer fans everywhere for typing Albright instead of Alfred State in an earlier post. 

Well, at least you're in the right town now....just the wrong side. Perhaps you're often found on the wrong side of town?
We here at Alfred are well accustomed to and very much enjoy playing the Rodney Dangerfield role. No harm done. 

bleedpurple, while I won't be as gracious as Pep, you've added extra insult in your attempt to apologize.  Alfred University is now among the final eight in D3.  Alfred State University is among the absolute dregs of D3; they only joined in 2013, but their 4-year record is 4-31.  Next year they join the ECFC, generally considered one of the 2-3 worst conferences, while Alfred is the 10-0 champ of the E8, generally considered one of the 3-4 best conferences.

Maybe you'd better quit until you do some homework!

[Pat Coleman]

Pep,
I apologize to you and Pioneer fans everywhere for typing Albright instead of Alfred State in an earlier post. 

Well, at least you're in the right town now....just the wrong side. Perhaps you're often found on the wrong side of town?
We here at Alfred are well accustomed to and very much enjoy playing the Rodney Dangerfield role. No harm done. 

bleedpurple, while I won't be as gracious as Pep, you've added extra insult in your attempt to apologize.  Alfred University is now among the final eight in D3.  Alfred State University is among the absolute dregs of D3; they only joined in 2013, but their 4-year record is 4-31.  Next year they join the ECFC, generally considered one of the 2-3 worst conferences, while Alfred is the 10-0 champ of the E8, generally considered one of the 3-4 best conferences.

Maybe you'd better quit until you do some homework!

You make it sound like he did it on accident ... I'm pretty sure he knows what he's saying.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pep,
I apologize to you and Pioneer fans everywhere for typing Albright instead of Alfred State in an earlier post. 

Well, at least you're in the right town now....just the wrong side. Perhaps you're often found on the wrong side of town?
We here at Alfred are well accustomed to and very much enjoy playing the Rodney Dangerfield role. No harm done. 

bleedpurple, while I won't be as gracious as Pep, you've added extra insult in your attempt to apologize.  Alfred University is now among the final eight in D3.  Alfred State University is among the absolute dregs of D3; they only joined in 2013, but their 4-year record is 4-31.  Next year they join the ECFC, generally considered one of the 2-3 worst conferences, while Alfred is the 10-0 champ of the E8, generally considered one of the 3-4 best conferences.

Maybe you'd better quit until you do some homework!

You make it sound like he did it on accident ... I'm pretty sure he knows what he's saying.

Well, if so, he punked me good!

I just feel like sticking up for Alfred, especially as you guys unanimously picked them to lose big.  I feel it's gonna be MUCH closer than most predict, and would be surprised not be shocked if they won.

[AUKaz00]

Pep,
I apologize to you and Pioneer fans everywhere for typing Albright instead of Alfred State in an earlier post. 

Well, at least you're in the right town now....just the wrong side. Perhaps you're often found on the wrong side of town?
We here at Alfred are well accustomed to and very much enjoy playing the Rodney Dangerfield role. No harm done. 

bleedpurple, while I won't be as gracious as Pep, you've added extra insult in your attempt to apologize.  Alfred University is now among the final eight in D3.  Alfred State University is among the absolute dregs of D3; they only joined in 2013, but their 4-year record is 4-31.  Next year they join the ECFC, generally considered one of the 2-3 worst conferences, while Alfred is the 10-0 champ of the E8, generally considered one of the 3-4 best conferences.

Maybe you'd better quit until you do some homework!

You make it sound like he did it on accident ... I'm pretty sure he knows what he's saying.

Yeah, if he hadn't paired Pioneers with the institution name, I would have been humorously offended.

Well played, bp.