2016 Playoffs

[USee]

If there are any road wins in the Alfred bracket Mount may not actually be on the road the whole playoffs.....it has happened.

[HansenRatings]

Since we're all yammering about who got what and what's fair for who, I figured I would share my two cents. Everything below is based on my current ratings. If you don't agree with my ratings (which have been the most accurate computer ratings all season long), you're not going to agree with anything below. If you want to argue, I'll usually respond though.

First, each teams odds of advancing through the tournament, based on their draw, their ratings, their likely opponents, and home-field advantage:


UMHB is the favorite, with Mount Union still having very favorable odds for being on the road (which is worth 3 points/game vs. a neutral field).

Next, each team's odds to win the championship based on a random draw, with each game assumed on a neutral field. This is basically a ranking based solely on ratings:


And here's how each team's draw affects their odds of advancing relative to a random draw:


This last one is a little more complex. It shows the strength of opponents in each teams pod (4-team grouping) and quad (8-team grouping), weighted by those teams' odds of facing the team in question. Let's use Alfred for an example. In their pod, they are definitely going to face Bridgewater State, and have about a 25% chance of facing Husson and 75% chance of facing WNE. So their pod's rating is:
50% Bridgewater State + 50% (75% WNE + 25% Husson)
Here are the results:


To add to the cacophony surrounding Mount Union's draw, they have one of the weakest pods and the 3rd easiest path to the semifinals, even considering their status as road warriors this season.

[USee]

I think Mount Union got off pretty light considering their bracket.  Too bad the Wisconsin teams were all crowded up in a single bracket, but it comes down to distance.  Would have loved to see a WIAC team go up against MU before UWW.  Interesting placement......mmmmmmmm.

-Ski

Although I don't think there is any conspiracy, I'd have to imagine Mt is feeling pretty good now.  They went from possibly being out of the tourney to being placed in a region whose highest ranked competition is #10, with no historical success in getting beyond the second round. 

Linfield, MHB, HSU, Wheaton and NCC all in one bracket?  Wow, that's a bear.

It's the "rematch" bracket. If the top seeds win it will be rematch city.

[thunderdog]

Since we're all yammering about who got what and what's fair for who, I figured I would share my two cents. Everything below is based on my current ratings. If you don't agree with my ratings (which have been the most accurate computer ratings all season long), you're not going to agree with anything below. If you want to argue, I'll usually respond though.

First, each teams odds of advancing through the tournament, based on their draw, their ratings, their likely opponents, and home-field advantage:


UMHB is the favorite, with Mount Union still having very favorable odds for being on the road (which is worth 3 points/game vs. a neutral field).

Next, each team's odds to win the championship based on a random draw, with each game assumed on a neutral field. This is basically a ranking based solely on ratings:


And here's how each team's draw affects their odds of advancing relative to a random draw:


This last one is a little more complex. It shows the strength of opponents in each teams pod (4-team grouping) and quad (8-team grouping), weighted by those teams' odds of facing the team in question. Let's use Alfred for an example. In their pod, they are definitely going to face Bridgewater State, and have about a 25% chance of facing Husson and 75% chance of facing WNE. So their pod's rating is:
50% Bridgewater State + 50% (75% WNE + 25% Husson)
Here are the results:


To add to the cacophony surrounding Mount Union's draw, they have one of the weakest pods and the 3rd easiest path to the semifinals, even considering their status as road warriors this season.

Logan, awesome sauce! Big fan of your work.

[thunderdog]

SJU and to a slightly less degree UWP got absolutely shafted IMO. The winner of that game will have to (most likely) win @ UWO, then @ UST, then @ UWW... just to make the Stagg. That's insane.

That "East" bracket is disappointing. Alfred getting a #1 seed. UMU was "punished" for losing a game by getting pretty much the easiest road to the final 4 imaginable, despite it being done on the road.

[USee]

It's hard to make an argument that UWP got shafted when they were pretty fortunate to get into the field with 2 losses. On the contrary I think they probably feel pretty fortunate to be strapping on the pads this week against anybody.

[thunderdog]

It's hard to make an argument that UWP got shafted when they were pretty fortunate to get into the field with 2 losses. On the contrary I think they probably feel pretty fortunate to be strapping on the pads this week against anybody.

True. Yes, they were the last pool C in, doesn't necessarily mean you deserve the short straw. Once you're in, you're in. They are still ranked #12 (HansenRating of #5). They have a 1st round game @ #9 SJU (Hansen #7), 2nd round @ #4 UWO (Hansen #4), quarterfinals @ #3 UST (Hansen #3), semis @ #2 UWW (Hansen #6)... then possibly #1 UMHB (Hansen #1) in the Stagg. That's pretty much the toughest road imaginable. That's just from 8-2 UWP's perspective. For a 2nd place 9-1, MIAC team to have the same road, again... you can't draw it up much worse than that...

[AO]

It's hard to make an argument that UWP got shafted when they were pretty fortunate to get into the field with 2 losses. On the contrary I think they probably feel pretty fortunate to be strapping on the pads this week against anybody.

True. Yes, they were the last pool C in, doesn't necessarily mean you deserve the short straw. Once you're in, you're in. They are still ranked #12 (HansenRating of #5). They have a 1st round game @ #9 SJU (Hansen #7), 2nd round @ #4 UWO (Hansen #4), quarterfinals @ #3 UST (Hansen #3), semis @ #2 UWW (Hansen #6)... then possibly #1 UMHB (Hansen #1) in the Stagg. That's pretty much the toughest road imaginable. That's just from 8-2 UWP's perspective. For a 2nd place 9-1, MIAC team to have the same road, again... you can't draw it up much worse than that...

At least you can say there's a logical progression there since they're not playing UMHB or UWW in the first two rounds.

[justafan12]

I follow very little D3 football but I do follow the NCAA and their treatment of teams in some D3 sports when it comes to seeding and brackets.  Seems odd (to me) that UMHB and HSU, 2 teams from same conference, could match up in a second round game but Mount Union and team that beat them in conference are in opposite sides of the bracket.

Is that the norm in D3 football?

[smedindy]

Welcome to life on the islands...its normal for the Texas schools to play in the first round.

[smedindy]

It's hard to make an argument that UWP got shafted when they were pretty fortunate to get into the field with 2 losses. On the contrary I think they probably feel pretty fortunate to be strapping on the pads this week against anybody.

True. Yes, they were the last pool C in, doesn't necessarily mean you deserve the short straw. Once you're in, you're in. They are still ranked #12 (HansenRating of #5). They have a 1st round game @ #9 SJU (Hansen #7), 2nd round @ #4 UWO (Hansen #4), quarterfinals @ #3 UST (Hansen #3), semis @ #2 UWW (Hansen #6)... then possibly #1 UMHB (Hansen #1) in the Stagg. That's pretty much the toughest road imaginable. That's just from 8-2 UWP's perspective. For a 2nd place 9-1, MIAC team to have the same road, again... you can't draw it up much worse than that...

Well, there's geography, and...geography.

Last in can't complain. Gotta win 'em all anyway.

[hazzben]

Since we're all yammering about who got what and what's fair for who, I figured I would share my two cents. Everything below is based on my current ratings. If you don't agree with my ratings (which have been the most accurate computer ratings all season long), you're not going to agree with anything below. If you want to argue, I'll usually respond though.

First, this is outstanding stuff. Thanks for putting this together for d3football!

One thing that makes me a little leary of the system. Bethel is really high (according to your metric, we may be the best 5-5 team ever  ). For people who've followed them, this team was a few plays and turnovers away from a very different year, but you are what your record says you are. My biggest question is how we're ranked ahead of both Carthage and Dubuque, two teams that beat us and have substantially better records??

[HansenRatings]

Recency matters. Bethel has been playing better at the end of the season, and those teams have been playing worse. That's also why UWP & UWO are rated ahead of UWW right now. they're hot, and UWW seems to be dealing with some injuries.
Bethel isn't even close to being the best 5-5 team ever. There was a UWL team that only won 2 DIII games in the early '00s that finished in the Top 25.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I follow very little D3 football but I do follow the NCAA and their treatment of teams in some D3 sports when it comes to seeding and brackets.  Seems odd (to me) that UMHB and HSU, 2 teams from same conference, could match up in a second round game but Mount Union and team that beat them in conference are in opposite sides of the bracket.

Is that the norm in D3 football?

Yes, this is the norm.

It's entirely driven by travel costs.

Teams in Ohio are pretty much smack in the middle of D3 Central and have a ton of viable travel partners.  They can be slotted into brackets just about anywhere.

Texas teams are out on an island and basically have to be paired against one another or other flight-requiring teams early on.

As the Texas guys will tell you, in years when two Texas teams make the dance they usually end up playing in the first round.  Getting to play in the second round this year (if both should win their openers) is an improvement.

[Ralph Turner]

+1! Ex TP.
This is a fair bracket for us. We can see how well the East teams, Alford & Hobart and Wesley/Stevenson will do when going out of region.