2016 Playoffs

[USee]

Recency matters. Bethel has been playing better at the end of the season, and those teams have been playing worse. That's also why UWP & UWO are rated ahead of UWW right now. they're hot, and UWW seems to be dealing with some injuries.
Bethel isn't even close to being the best 5-5 team ever. There was a UWL team that only won 2 DIII games in the early '00s that finished in the Top 25.

Carthage isn't playing worse...they played IWU and NCC at the end of the season. That's not worse, that's just scheduling.

[wesleydad]

+1! Ex TP.
This is a fair bracket for us. We can see how well the East teams, Alford & Hobart and Wesley/Stevenson will do when going out of region.

Ralph, you are well aware that Wesley, of the teams you mentioned has fared as well as anyone else not named Mount or UWW when out of region.

[HansenRatings]

Recency matters. Bethel has been playing better at the end of the season, and those teams have been playing worse. That's also why UWP & UWO are rated ahead of UWW right now. they're hot, and UWW seems to be dealing with some injuries.
Bethel isn't even close to being the best 5-5 team ever. There was a UWL team that only won 2 DIII games in the early '00s that finished in the Top 25.

Carthage isn't playing worse...they played IWU and NCC at the end of the season. That's not worse, that's just scheduling.

They're playing (ever so slightly) worse than my model expected them to play*
They've gone from about #25 to #30 in the last few weeks, while Bethel has done about the opposite.

[Ralph Turner]

Yes Wesleydad. Elsewhere I have commented about how losing the "ACFC" schools has weakened the South.
It appears that Wesley is down this year. My impression of Wesley is that they have had ASC quality speed, so as to neutralize a Mississippi College or UHMB!
I am looking forward to the next 5 years of Wesley/FSU/Salisbury in the East Region.
:-)

[Mr. Ypsi]

I've seen a number of comments that UMU is (despite being on the road) getting an unfairly easy trip to the semis.  While I agree that the ER teams are generally not as strong as the NR or WR, I'm not entirely sure that that is true this year.  Barring a huge upset, Alfred has a very clear path to the third round (their first and second round opponents are almost certainly the bottom three seeds in that region), but UMU's path is MUCH tougher.  A win by Hobart on Saturday would not surprise me a bit (Hobart's greatest strength in passing; UMU's greatest weakness seems to be pass defense).  If the Raiders do survive round one, they then play AT (10-0) Johns Hopkins; if they survive that they play AT (10-0) Alfred.  To call that an EASY road to the semis is IMO showing both ignorance of and contempt for the top ER teams this year.

[crufootball]

I've seen a number of comments that UMU is (despite being on the road) getting an unfairly easy trip to the semis.  While I agree that the ER teams are generally not as strong as the NR or WR, I'm not entirely sure that that is true this year.  Barring a huge upset, Alfred has a very clear path to the third round (their first and second round opponents are almost certainly the bottom three seeds in that region), but UMU's path is MUCH tougher.  A win by Hobart on Saturday would not surprise me a bit (Hobart's greatest strength in passing; UMU's greatest weakness seems to be pass defense).  If the Raiders do survive round one, they then play AT (10-0) Johns Hopkins; if they survive that they play AT (10-0) Alfred.  To call that an EASY road to the semis is IMO showing both ignorance of and contempt for the top ER teams this year.

But that's just it, Alfred and the other top seeds should have an easier road whereas this year Mount Union shouldn't. I won't downplay the level of play in the East but its hard not to comment that Mount Union will not have to face a traditional power (or anyone ranked higher than #10) before the semifinals. Yes they will be on the road but they will be facing teams that the other purple powers would much rather be facing to some extent.

[HansenRatings]

I've seen a number of comments that UMU is (despite being on the road) getting an unfairly easy trip to the semis.  While I agree that the ER teams are generally not as strong as the NR or WR, I'm not entirely sure that that is true this year.  Barring a huge upset, Alfred has a very clear path to the third round (their first and second round opponents are almost certainly the bottom three seeds in that region), but UMU's path is MUCH tougher.  A win by Hobart on Saturday would not surprise me a bit (Hobart's greatest strength in passing; UMU's greatest weakness seems to be pass defense).  If the Raiders do survive round one, they then play AT (10-0) Johns Hopkins; if they survive that they play AT (10-0) Alfred.  To call that an EASY road to the semis is IMO showing both ignorance of and contempt for the top ER teams this year.

But that's just it, Alfred and the other top seeds should have an easier road whereas this year Mount Union shouldn't. I won't downplay the level of play in the East but its hard not to comment that Mount Union will not have to face a traditional power (or anyone ranked higher than #10) before the semifinals. Yes they will be on the road but they will be facing teams that the other purple powers would much rather be facing to some extent.

Agreed cru. For a 4 seed (or ANYONE) to make the final four without having the possibility of facing a Top 10 team (JHU is #8 in the coach's polls, but ~90% of computer models have none of their opponents in the Top 10), is an unbelievably easy path to the semifinals.

[emma17]

I've seen a number of comments that UMU is (despite being on the road) getting an unfairly easy trip to the semis.  While I agree that the ER teams are generally not as strong as the NR or WR, I'm not entirely sure that that is true this year.  Barring a huge upset, Alfred has a very clear path to the third round (their first and second round opponents are almost certainly the bottom three seeds in that region), but UMU's path is MUCH tougher.  A win by Hobart on Saturday would not surprise me a bit (Hobart's greatest strength in passing; UMU's greatest weakness seems to be pass defense).  If the Raiders do survive round one, they then play AT (10-0) Johns Hopkins; if they survive that they play AT (10-0) Alfred.  To call that an EASY road to the semis is IMO showing both ignorance of and contempt for the top ER teams this year.

Ignorance and contempt?  Come on man. Every 8 team bracket except the one Mt is in has at least one D3 top 5 team.
It's not contempt (nor disrespectful) to discuss the facts.  Sure it's possible that a team or two from this region will surprise, but it will be a surprise.

[smedindy]

Darn that geography!

The E8 and NJAC look to be stronger than the OAC this year.

The issue is the legacy of the East, at times, and that also affects voting in polls. Familiar teams are ranked higher if kinda equal. We all need to clean our caches and let this playoff season unfold without dwelling on five years ago...

[Mr. Ypsi]

I've seen a number of comments that UMU is (despite being on the road) getting an unfairly easy trip to the semis.  While I agree that the ER teams are generally not as strong as the NR or WR, I'm not entirely sure that that is true this year.  Barring a huge upset, Alfred has a very clear path to the third round (their first and second round opponents are almost certainly the bottom three seeds in that region), but UMU's path is MUCH tougher.  A win by Hobart on Saturday would not surprise me a bit (Hobart's greatest strength in passing; UMU's greatest weakness seems to be pass defense).  If the Raiders do survive round one, they then play AT (10-0) Johns Hopkins; if they survive that they play AT (10-0) Alfred.  To call that an EASY road to the semis is IMO showing both ignorance of and contempt for the top ER teams this year.

Ignorance and contempt?  Come on man. Every 8 team bracket except the one Mt is in has at least one D3 top 5 team.
It's not contempt (nor disrespectful) to discuss the facts.  Sure it's possible that a team or two from this region will surprise, but it will be a surprise.

It won't be a surprise to me.  I'm reasonably confident that UMU will NOT make the semis this year.  I think it is almost 50-50 that they will not make it to round two.  Hobart's passing game is damned good; UMU's pass defense is highly questionable.

IF Hobart can get past the 'oh, s***' reaction to the name on UMU's unis, I think they should be a slight favorite in the game.

[SaintsFAN]

I've seen a number of comments that UMU is (despite being on the road) getting an unfairly easy trip to the semis.  While I agree that the ER teams are generally not as strong as the NR or WR, I'm not entirely sure that that is true this year.  Barring a huge upset, Alfred has a very clear path to the third round (their first and second round opponents are almost certainly the bottom three seeds in that region), but UMU's path is MUCH tougher.  A win by Hobart on Saturday would not surprise me a bit (Hobart's greatest strength in passing; UMU's greatest weakness seems to be pass defense).  If the Raiders do survive round one, they then play AT (10-0) Johns Hopkins; if they survive that they play AT (10-0) Alfred.  To call that an EASY road to the semis is IMO showing both ignorance of and contempt for the top ER teams this year.

Ignorance and contempt?  Come on man. Every 8 team bracket except the one Mt is in has at least one D3 top 5 team.
It's not contempt (nor disrespectful) to discuss the facts.  Sure it's possible that a team or two from this region will surprise, but it will be a surprise.

It won't be a surprise to me.  I'm reasonably confident that UMU will NOT make the semis this year.  I think it is almost 50-50 that they will not make it to round two.  Hobart's passing game is damned good; UMU's pass defense is highly questionable.

IF Hobart can get past the 'oh, s***' reaction to the name on UMU's unis, I think they should be a slight favorite in the game.

I don't feel like the game is a gimme, but it IS Mount Union.  They are still REALLY good, if just a little bit off by their own standards.  Mount is going to make a run at some point.  It will be very interesting to see how that is handled.

[AUKaz00]

IF Hobart can get past the 'oh, s***' reaction to the name on UMU's unis, I think they should be a slight favorite in the game.

In the LL, that's an "Oh, dlip!" reaction!

[AO]

IF Hobart can get past the 'oh, s***' reaction to the name on UMU's unis, I think they should be a slight favorite in the game.

In the LL, that's an "Oh, dlip!" reaction!

Massey has Mount as 20 point favorites.  Of course they were 10 point favorites against John Carroll too.  In a tourney without many upsets, a Hobart win would be a massive upset.

[HSCTiger74]

IF Hobart can get past the 'oh, s***' reaction to the name on UMU's unis, I think they should be a slight favorite in the game.

In the LL, that's an "Oh, dlip!" reaction!

       +k

[retagent]

This year, UMU and St John's have very similar seasons. Look at who each team has to go through to make the Final game.