2016 Playoffs

[USee]

I've seen a number of comments that UMU is (despite being on the road) getting an unfairly easy trip to the semis.  While I agree that the ER teams are generally not as strong as the NR or WR, I'm not entirely sure that that is true this year.  Barring a huge upset, Alfred has a very clear path to the third round (their first and second round opponents are almost certainly the bottom three seeds in that region), but UMU's path is MUCH tougher.  A win by Hobart on Saturday would not surprise me a bit (Hobart's greatest strength in passing; UMU's greatest weakness seems to be pass defense).  If the Raiders do survive round one, they then play AT (10-0) Johns Hopkins; if they survive that they play AT (10-0) Alfred.  To call that an EASY road to the semis is IMO showing both ignorance of and contempt for the top ER teams this year.

Ignorance and contempt?  Come on man. Every 8 team bracket except the one Mt is in has at least one D3 top 5 team.
It's not contempt (nor disrespectful) to discuss the facts.  Sure it's possible that a team or two from this region will surprise, but it will be a surprise.

It won't be a surprise to me.  I'm reasonably confident that UMU will NOT make the semis this year.  I think it is almost 50-50 that they will not make it to round two.  Hobart's passing game is damned good; UMU's pass defense is highly questionable.

IF Hobart can get past the 'oh, s***' reaction to the name on UMU's unis, I think they should be a slight favorite in the game.

Ok, I am calling BS on this. While I think Hobart is a fine team and Mt Union isn't as good as 2015, the rumors of the Purple Raider demise are greatly exaggerated. Specifically, Ypsi, I will take the points and the Purple Raiders for every last nickel you can muster. You think this is a pickem? That's insane.

[ITH radio]

Hobart's biggest issue is going to be the Raiders speed. The Statesmen can pass but they don't run the ball well and may struggle if the Raiders have cover corners that take Shed out of the game.

On defense, the Hobart ILBs are not very fast which I'm sure is something Coach Kehres will look to exploit. Hobart has also struggled at times stopping the run, especially if the offense stalls and they end up on the field for 35+ mins which has happened a lot this season (hence the close calls at the end of games). I will say Hobart's D has improved in recent weeks and Jemison is a player Mount will need to account for on every play. The other OLB Harper is under-rated and has made some key INTs at big moments this season.

[HansenRatings]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

[crufootball]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

Do you have any data to show the accuracy of your point spreads?

[Ralph Turner]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

Hansen, your data are tri modal!
That is interesting.

[AO]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

Do you have any data to show the accuracy of your point spreads?

[HansenRatings]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

Do you have any data to show the accuracy of your point spreads?

Yes, it includes every computer ratings system that does DIII.

Click here

[emma17]

Darn that geography!

The E8 and NJAC look to be stronger than the OAC this year.

The issue is the legacy of the East, at times, and that also affects voting in polls. Familiar teams are ranked higher if kinda equal. We all need to clean our caches and let this playoff season unfold without dwelling on five years ago...

Not complaining. Not disrespecting. Not ignoring recent history of all teams in the bracket.
It's just the facts.

I actually hope that the East teams do better than expected as it's good for D3 football.

[crufootball]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

Do you have any data to show the accuracy of your point spreads?

Yes, it includes every computer ratings system that does DIII.

Click here

So am I reading it right that on average your spread is off by 12.132?

[smedindy]

Darn that geography!

The E8 and NJAC look to be stronger than the OAC this year.

The issue is the legacy of the East, at times, and that also affects voting in polls. Familiar teams are ranked higher if kinda equal. We all need to clean our caches and let this playoff season unfold without dwelling on five years ago...

Not complaining. Not disrespecting. Not ignoring recent history of all teams in the bracket.
It's just the facts.

I actually hope that the East teams do better than expected as it's good for D3 football.

Remember, past results do not guarantee future performance.
"Now you tell us," said Albion.

[HansenRatings]

So am I reading it right that on average your spread is off by 12.132?

Yessir. ThePredictionTracker shows how most prediction models do for DI, and DIII is slightly easier to predict, but Atomic Football is pretty consistently one of the best for DI, and I was better than them for most of the season. We've been relatively equal over the latter half of the season. I did much better in the first half of the season though, probably because I account for number of returning starters and they don't.

Remember, past results do not guarantee future performance.
"Now you tell us," said Albion.

+K... My model kept holding out hope they would turn it around, due to a lot of close losses, but I was proven wrong repeatedly.

[Ryan Stoppable]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

0.3 percent? So what you're saying is there's a chance!

[Teamski]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

0.3 percent? So what you're saying is there's a chance!

LOL!!!!!!

[SaintsFAN]

Darn that geography!

The E8 and NJAC look to be stronger than the OAC this year.

The issue is the legacy of the East, at times, and that also affects voting in polls. Familiar teams are ranked higher if kinda equal. We all need to clean our caches and let this playoff season unfold without dwelling on five years ago...

Not complaining. Not disrespecting. Not ignoring recent history of all teams in the bracket.
It's just the facts.

I actually hope that the East teams do better than expected as it's good for D3 football.

Remember, past results do not guarantee future performance.
"Now you tell us," said Albion.

Reminds me of the compliance statement in our marketing materials.

[Bartman]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

Monkey stomp prediction against Hobart...oh no....this is a micro aggression ...I need a safe space.......should Hobart even show up ? Time for a John Belushi/Animal House style inspirational speech for the team ......When the going gets tough.......