2016 Playoffs

[smedindy]

Hey, Wagner beat UConn and Yale beat U. of Washington in men's hoops, so anything is possible.

(Well, not Wilmington beating Mt. Union...at least not yet...)

[HansenRatings]

Monkey stomp prediction against Hobart...oh no....this is a micro aggression ...I need a safe space.......should Hobart even show up ? Time for a John Belushi/Animal House style inspirational speech for the team ......When the going gets tough.......

I feel like most monkey stomps fall into the macro-aggression category, but I would still recommend Hobart participating in this game.

[USee]

Hey, Wagner beat UConn and Yale beat U. of Washington in men's hoops, so anything is possible.

(Well, not Wilmington beating Mt. Union...at least not yet...)

Yale beating Washington, while an upset, is not that unexpected for teams ranked within 30 places on KenPom.

[wesleydad]

Here's how my model views the first round of games. I think the games really fall into three categories:
1. Is this really a first round game? (SJU/UWP & HSU/Linfield)
2. This should be a pretty good game. (Wheaton/Huntingdon to Wesley/Stevenson)
3. Monkey stomp.  (Hobart/UMU & below)

Monkey stomp prediction against Hobart...oh no....this is a micro aggression ...I need a safe space.......should Hobart even show up ? Time for a John Belushi/Animal House style inspirational speech for the team ......When the going gets tough.......

I will take Bart plus 32 in this one.  I was also surprised to see that Linfield trends favorite over HSU. 

[smedindy]

Hey, Wagner beat UConn and Yale beat U. of Washington in men's hoops, so anything is possible.

(Well, not Wilmington beating Mt. Union...at least not yet...)

Yale beating Washington, while an upset, is not that unexpected for teams ranked within 30 places on KenPom.

It's more for the uninformed masses than anyone...that and this was supposed to be THE year for U-Dub. ^*

*Said every year since Detlef Schrempf and Christian Welp were on the scene.

[USee]

Careful, you are aging yourself with those references.

[emma17]

Darn that geography!

The E8 and NJAC look to be stronger than the OAC this year.

The issue is the legacy of the East, at times, and that also affects voting in polls. Familiar teams are ranked higher if kinda equal. We all need to clean our caches and let this playoff season unfold without dwelling on five years ago...

Not complaining. Not disrespecting. Not ignoring recent history of all teams in the bracket.
It's just the facts.

I actually hope that the East teams do better than expected as it's good for D3 football.

Remember, past results do not guarantee future performance.
"Now you tell us," said Albion.

There sure aren't any guarantees. But there are some good bets when these teams are in the playoff field.
Mt Union
UWW
Linfield
UMHB
St. Thomas
Wesley
UWO
NCC

[HansenRatings]

Added some Advanced Stat Profiles for each playoff team on my site. Breaks down teams by scoring O/D, and rushing/passing O/D. If you venture over to the MIAC page, you can see an example of the breakdown I did between SJU/UWP.

[desertcat1]

Nice work ,  thanks for all the numbers.

[justafan12]

I follow very little D3 football but I do follow the NCAA and their treatment of teams in some D3 sports when it comes to seeding and brackets.  Seems odd (to me) that UMHB and HSU, 2 teams from same conference, could match up in a second round game but Mount Union and team that beat them in conference are in opposite sides of the bracket.

Is that the norm in D3 football?

Yes, this is the norm.

It's entirely driven by travel costs.

Teams in Ohio are pretty much smack in the middle of D3 Central and have a ton of viable travel partners.  They can be slotted into brackets just about anywhere.

Texas teams are out on an island and basically have to be paired against one another or other flight-requiring teams early on.

As the Texas guys will tell you, in years when two Texas teams make the dance they usually end up playing in the first round.  Getting to play in the second round this year (if both should win their openers) is an improvement.

Okay, that is what I thought.  I have seen this in other sports; $$ being the issue here by the NCAA and personally think it is a bunch of horse hockey.  They have the money to put on a legit bracket; one that is determined by the record and on the field performance NOT by your zip code.  I am sure it has been like this for years and will continue to be but it just is not right.  You would NEVER see geographical bracketing in any D1 sport so why in D2 and D3?  I don't think the NCAA is running short of cash.

[smedindy]

To their defense, if they do it for D3 and D2 football and basketball they have to do it for all sports, all championships, all divisions.

That's a small solace, but they seem to run each division as it's own entity, budget wise. Maybe I'm wrong, but it feels that way.

Thus, we have ridiculous roster limits (Maybe up it to a normal travel squad?) and islands that seemingly can't escape playing each other in the first or second round.

[justafan12]

They should do it for all sports in all divisions.  I believe they do treat each division as its on budget.  You would think D3 would have the biggest budget as it has the most teams but there is no TV revenue $$$ that gets thrown in for D1 so they do it all based on zip code. I have seen #1 vs. #2 in first round matchups in other D3 sports. In D3 volleyball just last week, one of the regionals had 4 of the top 6 teams in it.  You would think NCAA would want those type of match up later in the playoffs but I honestly think they don't care. 

[Pat Coleman]

They should do it for all sports in all divisions.  I believe they do treat each division as its on budget.  You would think D3 would have the biggest budget as it has the most teams but there is no TV revenue $$$ that gets thrown in for D1 so they do it all based on zip code. I have seen #1 vs. #2 in first round matchups in other D3 sports. In D3 volleyball just last week, one of the regionals had 4 of the top 6 teams in it.  You would think NCAA would want those type of match up later in the playoffs but I honestly think they don't care.

D-III gets just 3.18% of the total NCAA budget, and better yet, this number is defined in the NCAA constitution. There's no easy way to change it, as all NCAA member institutions would get a vote.

[HansenRatings]

They should do it for all sports in all divisions.  I believe they do treat each division as its on budget.  You would think D3 would have the biggest budget as it has the most teams but there is no TV revenue $$$ that gets thrown in for D1 so they do it all based on zip code. I have seen #1 vs. #2 in first round matchups in other D3 sports. In D3 volleyball just last week, one of the regionals had 4 of the top 6 teams in it.  You would think NCAA would want those type of match up later in the playoffs but I honestly think they don't care.

D-III gets just 3.18% of the total NCAA budget, and better yet, this number is defined in the NCAA constitution. There's no easy way to change it, as all NCAA member institutions would get a vote.

What % needs to pass it? I know there's at least 351 DI basketball-playing schools, but between DII (which also holds highly-regionalized playoffs) and DIII, there should be close to 2/3 of NCAA institutions in the lower divisions.

[Pat Coleman]

They should do it for all sports in all divisions.  I believe they do treat each division as its on budget.  You would think D3 would have the biggest budget as it has the most teams but there is no TV revenue $$$ that gets thrown in for D1 so they do it all based on zip code. I have seen #1 vs. #2 in first round matchups in other D3 sports. In D3 volleyball just last week, one of the regionals had 4 of the top 6 teams in it.  You would think NCAA would want those type of match up later in the playoffs but I honestly think they don't care.

D-III gets just 3.18% of the total NCAA budget, and better yet, this number is defined in the NCAA constitution. There's no easy way to change it, as all NCAA member institutions would get a vote.

What % needs to pass it? I know there's at least 351 DI basketball-playing schools, but between DII (which also holds highly-regionalized playoffs) and DIII, there should be close to 2/3 of NCAA institutions in the lower divisions.

We're getting out of my wheelhouse here but I thought I read at the time where we were discussing adding a new division that all divisions would have to pass anything that impacts all of them. But no idea by what percentage.

I'm sure it's set up that D-II and D-III could not band together to take money from D-I without its consent.