2016 Playoffs

[ccd494]

They should do it for all sports in all divisions.  I believe they do treat each division as its on budget.  You would think D3 would have the biggest budget as it has the most teams but there is no TV revenue $$$ that gets thrown in for D1 so they do it all based on zip code. I have seen #1 vs. #2 in first round matchups in other D3 sports. In D3 volleyball just last week, one of the regionals had 4 of the top 6 teams in it.  You would think NCAA would want those type of match up later in the playoffs but I honestly think they don't care.

D-III gets just 3.18% of the total NCAA budget, and better yet, this number is defined in the NCAA constitution. There's no easy way to change it, as all NCAA member institutions would get a vote.

What % needs to pass it? I know there's at least 351 DI basketball-playing schools, but between DII (which also holds highly-regionalized playoffs) and DIII, there should be close to 2/3 of NCAA institutions in the lower divisions.

D-I FCS also has highly regionalized playoffs.  A few years ago Maine lost to New Hampshire on the last weekend of the regular season, still got a bye, and hosted New Hampshire in the second round of the playoffs (and promptly lost again).  The Dakota based teams (North Dakota State, South Dakota State, etc.) play annual playoff games against each other.  It's a source of major consternation for fans of that division.

I don't know how many votes D-II, D-III AND D-I FCS can band together and get, but it seems like a lot.

[AUKaz00]

They should do it for all sports in all divisions.  I believe they do treat each division as its on budget.  You would think D3 would have the biggest budget as it has the most teams but there is no TV revenue $$$ that gets thrown in for D1 so they do it all based on zip code. I have seen #1 vs. #2 in first round matchups in other D3 sports. In D3 volleyball just last week, one of the regionals had 4 of the top 6 teams in it.  You would think NCAA would want those type of match up later in the playoffs but I honestly think they don't care.

D-III gets just 3.18% of the total NCAA budget, and better yet, this number is defined in the NCAA constitution. There's no easy way to change it, as all NCAA member institutions would get a vote.

What % needs to pass it? I know there's at least 351 DI basketball-playing schools, but between DII (which also holds highly-regionalized playoffs) and DIII, there should be close to 2/3 of NCAA institutions in the lower divisions.

D-I FCS also has highly regionalized playoffs.  A few years ago Maine lost to New Hampshire on the last weekend of the regular season, still got a bye, and hosted New Hampshire in the second round of the playoffs (and promptly lost again).  The Dakota based teams (North Dakota State, South Dakota State, etc.) play annual playoff games against each other.  It's a source of major consternation for fans of that division.

I don't know how many votes D-II, D-III AND D-I FCS can band together and get, but it seems like a lot.

I presume it's a tricameral voting process, requiring a majority (or super-majority) within each division to affect fiscal change of this nature.  So, while D3 and D2 would likely vote for more funding (from D1 football and basketball), there probably aren't enough votes within D1 to make that happen.

[Teamski]

You know you have a weak bracket when.....wait for it...... the top seed barely survives an OT loss over the bottom seed.  Wow.....

-Ski

[smedindy]

Johns Hopkins probably is the better team in that bracket anyway. That's also a bracket where the #8 is closer to the #1 than anyone.

Bridgewater's probably stronger than people give them credit for. The New England area is usually denigrated, sometimes justly, sometimes unjustly.

You could say the same about UMHB, because they let Redlands hang around way too long.

[Ralph Turner]

Smedindy, I please give me your prediction of UMU vs JHU.

Thanks

(I picked UMU to move on from this quadrant.)

[pumkinattack]

JHU 28-MUC 21.  I was totally unimpressed by this MUC team today.  They punched one in late (2mjn left of a late INT) but when's the last time a MUC team "needed" to kick a 33 yard FG to feel good well into the 4th against a mediocre Liberty League team (and this Hobart team deserves a top 25 ranking but is inferior to the 2011-2014 vintages without a doubt).  MUC is well coached, disciplined and will execute but from a talent perspective I was disappointed by them today.

[smedindy]

Smedindy, I please give me your prediction of UMU vs JHU.

Thanks

(I picked UMU to move on from this quadrant.)

35-30 JHU

[ITH radio]

We recap the playoffs after a lot of Hobart vs. UMU talk in our ERR segment, starting around the 37 min mark of our season finale:

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ith/2016/11/21/in-the-huddlle--liberty-league-football-talk-show

[HansenRatings]

Updated Championship Odds

[ExTartanPlayer]

Cool stuff as always, Hansen.

Just for convenience...the second-round games ranked in descending order of how-strong-the-odds-on-favorite-are:

UWW 93.7% vs  Wittenberg
Alfred 92.4% vs. Western New England*
UST 90.4% vs. Coe
UMHB 85.1% vs. Linfield
Mount Union 84.8% vs. Johns Hopkins
John Carroll 81.0% vs. Wesley
North Central 80.3% vs. Wheaton**
UW-Oshkosh 65.9% vs. St. John's***

*I completely see why your model would have Alfred as a heavy favorite - the Empire 8 is traditionally a strong league and the NEFC is obviously not, so Alfred's body of work is more impressive than WNE's - but this is a game where I think we, the people, would say that the computer might not totally match the eye test.  For one, although teams change over the course of the season, WNE just notched a 17-point win over a Husson team that Alfred beat by a touchdown in the opener.  For two, Alfred just barely survived a Bridgewater State team that hails from a MASCAC that's probably of similarish strength (can your computer model tell us about this, too?) to the NEFC.  Alfred is the favorite, sure, but of everything on the list it's also the game where I would be least surprised if the underdog won.

**I'm a little surprised at how tilted the NCC-Wheaton odds are.  Not that it's wrong, just surprised NCC is that heavy a favorite.

***I don't think anyone will be surprised that UWO-St. John's is considered the most competitive second-round matchup.

[USee]

For NCC v Wheaton, I have the spread on a neutral field at NCC -3.5. So NCC -6.5 at home. These two teams are pretty even in a lot of categories.

[bleedpurple]

Cool stuff as always, Hansen.

Just for convenience...the second-round games ranked in descending order of how-strong-the-odds-on-favorite-are:

UWW 93.7% vs  Wittenberg
Alfred 92.4% vs. Western New England*
UST 90.4% vs. Coe
UMHB 85.1% vs. Linfield
Mount Union 84.8% vs. Johns Hopkins
John Carroll 81.0% vs. Wesley
North Central 80.3% vs. Wheaton**
UW-Oshkosh 65.9% vs. St. John's***

*I completely see why your model would have Alfred as a heavy favorite - the Empire 8 is traditionally a strong league and the NEFC is obviously not, so Alfred's body of work is more impressive than WNE's - but this is a game where I think we, the people, would say that the computer might not totally match the eye test.  For one, although teams change over the course of the season, WNE just notched a 17-point win over a Husson team that Alfred beat by a touchdown in the opener.  For two, Alfred just barely survived a Bridgewater State team that hails from a MASCAC that's probably of similarish strength (can your computer model tell us about this, too?) to the NEFC.  Alfred is the favorite, sure, but of everything on the list it's also the game where I would be least surprised if the underdog won.

**I'm a little surprised at how tilted the NCC-Wheaton odds are.  Not that it's wrong, just surprised NCC is that heavy a favorite.

***I don't think anyone will be surprised that UWO-St. John's is considered the most competitive second-round matchup.

I think Linfield and Wesley are undervalued. I believe both have a better chance of winning than the model gives them credit for.

[HScoach]

JHU 28-MUC 21.  I was totally unimpressed by this MUC team today.  They punched one in late (2mjn left of a late INT) but when's the last time a MUC team "needed" to kick a 33 yard FG to feel good well into the 4th against a mediocre Liberty League team (and this Hobart team deserves a top 25 ranking but is inferior to the 2011-2014 vintages without a doubt).  MUC is well coached, disciplined and will execute but from a talent perspective I was disappointed by them today.

That's a very accurate assessment.  Mount is solid, a typical "good" D3 team that is capable of winning a few playoff games but no where near the pinnacle of D3 that we're used to seeing.   They're VERY inexperienced and lacking the difference makes that they've had for years.   Especially at D-line and RB.   If was a voter in the D3 top 25 I'd have them in the #12 to #15 range.

[Ralph Turner]

Cool stuff as always, Hansen.

Just for convenience...the second-round games ranked in descending order of how-strong-the-odds-on-favorite-are:

UWW 93.7% vs  Wittenberg
Alfred 92.4% vs. Western New England*
UST 90.4% vs. Coe
UMHB 85.1% vs. Linfield
Mount Union 84.8% vs. Johns Hopkins
John Carroll 81.0% vs. Wesley
North Central 80.3% vs. Wheaton**
UW-Oshkosh 65.9% vs. St. John's***

*I completely see why your model would have Alfred as a heavy favorite - the Empire 8 is traditionally a strong league and the NEFC is obviously not, so Alfred's body of work is more impressive than WNE's - but this is a game where I think we, the people, would say that the computer might not totally match the eye test.  For one, although teams change over the course of the season, WNE just notched a 17-point win over a Husson team that Alfred beat by a touchdown in the opener.  For two, Alfred just barely survived a Bridgewater State team that hails from a MASCAC that's probably of similarish strength (can your computer model tell us about this, too?) to the NEFC.  Alfred is the favorite, sure, but of everything on the list it's also the game where I would be least surprised if the underdog won.

**I'm a little surprised at how tilted the NCC-Wheaton odds are.  Not that it's wrong, just surprised NCC is that heavy a favorite.

***I don't think anyone will be surprised that UWO-St. John's is considered the most competitive second-round matchup.

I am not sure that I can extrapolate your data this way, but I have a hard time imaging that UMHB would beat Linfield almost 6 times out of every 7.  I can imagine maybe 2 out of 3 (66.67%) or 6 out of 10 (60%).

[AUPepBand]

Cool stuff as always, Hansen.

Just for convenience...the second-round games ranked in descending order of how-strong-the-odds-on-favorite-are:

UWW 93.7% vs  Wittenberg
Alfred 92.4% vs. Western New England*
UST 90.4% vs. Coe
UMHB 85.1% vs. Linfield
Mount Union 84.8% vs. Johns Hopkins
John Carroll 81.0% vs. Wesley
North Central 80.3% vs. Wheaton**
UW-Oshkosh 65.9% vs. St. John's***

*I completely see why your model would have Alfred as a heavy favorite - the Empire 8 is traditionally a strong league and the NEFC is obviously not, so Alfred's body of work is more impressive than WNE's - but this is a game where I think we, the people, would say that the computer might not totally match the eye test.  For one, although teams change over the course of the season, WNE just notched a 17-point win over a Husson team that Alfred beat by a touchdown in the opener.  For two, Alfred just barely survived a Bridgewater State team that hails from a MASCAC that's probably of similarish strength (can your computer model tell us about this, too?) to the NEFC.  Alfred is the favorite, sure, but of everything on the list it's also the game where I would be least surprised if the underdog won.

**I'm a little surprised at how tilted the NCC-Wheaton odds are.  Not that it's wrong, just surprised NCC is that heavy a favorite.

***I don't think anyone will be surprised that UWO-St. John's is considered the most competitive second-round matchup.

WNE is not being taken lightly by any means. Saxons know they were fortunate to win last week and perhaps suffered somewhat of a "letdown" after consummating an unbeaten season (first since 1981) with a solid win over their rival Cardinals. The Bridgewater game appeared to be something like "the day after Christmas."

When Coach Dave Murray was roaming the sidelines at Merrill Field (aka Yunevich Stadium), he often quipped that the AU Pep Band easily gave his team seven points every game. With students on leave for Thanksgiving break, Pep is wondering whether there will be enough members to even muster an AU Pep Band at Saterday's game. It may just be the kazoo section with a bass drum...which, Pep opines, reduces the impact of the band to perhaps three points.

Nevertheless, AU is playing football at Yunevich Stadium in Week 13. Let's go, Saxons!!