2016 Playoffs

[smedindy]

As I write this, every game is reasonably close excet St. Thomas / Coe. Not bad, really!

[smedindy]

As I write this, every game is reasonably close excet St. Thomas / Coe. Not bad, really!

Ok, not five minutes after I post that, two other games are no longer reasonably close...

[wally_wabash]

Some regional final thoughts-

Wheaton @ UMHB - Really impressive stuff from Wheaton on Saturday going back to North Central and handling the Cardinals the way that they did.  Now they get to leave the long sleeves at home and head down to Texas to face the Crusaders.  Wheaton is definitely peaking, but my hunch here is that the UMHB is *that* team this year.  More than any other team left, I think UMHB is the one that has margin for error and can still win in this round and maybe the next. 

Mount Union @ Alfred - I'm not as down on Alfred as some are.  I do think Mount Union is going to win this game, but I don't think it's going to be a wipeout.  I've been reading some poo-pooing about the E8 retrospectively given Alfred's first two results and results from the ECACs.  Hogwash.  That's a really good league and you have to be really good to run it clean.  The Saxons are going to make it tough on the Raiders. 

UW-Oshkosh @ St. Thomas - Is anybody more under the radar this season than St. Thomas?  Seems like they've crushed it all year (minus the close call with Concordia-Moorhead) and nobody is really paying attention to them.  Oshkosh is no stranger to big games against top level teams.  Probably the best game of the weekend right here. 

John Carroll @ UW-Whitewater - The Streaks opened in Wisconsin and they'll be back with perhaps a little more chill in the air this time around.  JCU is obviously playing far better than they were in September, but after struggling to find points against Wesley, I'm having a hard time finding a lot of points for them this week against a stout Warhawk defense.  Moeglin is really good, but as a freshman, this is a tough, tough assignment.  I think if Whitewater finds 21+ against JCU's excellent defense, that'll be enough.  Should be a solid game for fans of tough defenses though. 

[art76]

I was looking at the four remaining games coming up this weekend and noticed something a bit unusual about the teams playing - that is, all the higher seeds are undefeated and the lower seeded teams all have one loss. And, three of those losses have come at the hands of other teams still in the hunt. Oshkosh lost to Whitewater, John Carroll lost to Oshkosh and Mount Union lost to John Carroll. Wheaton's loss came to North Central, who they just defeated last week. Can we say parity at the top this year?

[HansenRatings]

Art, do you follow me on twitter?

Here are my updated odds of advancing and winning the Stagg Bowl right now. UST's overall rating may be inflated right now after last week, because I don't discredit teams for "running up the score." What I find interesting is that UMHB's odds are actually lower right now than they were at the beginning of the tournament. Part of that is due to pretty much all of the favorites advancing so far (and thus ensuring UMHB would face quality opponents in later rounds; at the onset there was a chance some lesser teams could have advanced to the quarters/semis to face them), and part of that is UST and UWO passing them in my overall ratings.

[ITH radio]

Mount Union @ Alfred - I'm not as down on Alfred as some are.  I do think Mount Union is going to win this game, but I don't think it's going to be a wipeout.  I've been reading some poo-pooing about the E8 retrospectively given Alfred's first two results and results from the ECACs.  Hogwash.  That's a really good league and you have to be really good to run it clean.  The Saxons are going to make it tough on the Raiders. 

I hope you're right.

[badgerwarhawk]

Some regional final thoughts-

Wheaton @ UMHB - Really impressive stuff from Wheaton on Saturday going back to North Central and handling the Cardinals the way that they did.  Now they get to leave the long sleeves at home and head down to Texas to face the Crusaders.  Wheaton is definitely peaking, but my hunch here is that the UMHB is *that* team this year.  More than any other team left, I think UMHB is the one that has margin for error and can still win in this round and maybe the next. 

Mount Union @ Alfred - I'm not as down on Alfred as some are.  I do think Mount Union is going to win this game, but I don't think it's going to be a wipeout.  I've been reading some poo-pooing about the E8 retrospectively given Alfred's first two results and results from the ECACs.  Hogwash.  That's a really good league and you have to be really good to run it clean.  The Saxons are going to make it tough on the Raiders. 

UW-Oshkosh @ St. Thomas - Is anybody more under the radar this season than St. Thomas?  Seems like they've crushed it all year (minus the close call with Concordia-Moorhead) and nobody is really paying attention to them.  Oshkosh is no stranger to big games against top level teams.  Probably the best game of the weekend right here. 

John Carroll @ UW-Whitewater - The Streaks opened in Wisconsin and they'll be back with perhaps a little more chill in the air this time around.  JCU is obviously playing far better than they were in September, but after struggling to find points against Wesley, I'm having a hard time finding a lot of points for them this week against a stout Warhawk defense.  Moeglin is really good, but as a freshman, this is a tough, tough assignment.  I think if Whitewater finds 21+ against JCU's excellent defense, that'll be enough.  Should be a solid game for fans of tough defenses though. 

As far under the radar as one of the national elites who have been ranked 4th the first 11 weeks of the season and 3rd in the final poll can be.   

[CruGuy]

Logan is 'AdjD' more a measure of defensive ability or total points allowed?

[HansenRatings]

Logan is 'AdjD' more a measure of defensive ability or total points allowed?

Total points allowed, with more recent games given more weight. The efficiency stats can give a better description of the defense's "quality" over the season. (if the link doesn't seem to work, hit refresh a few times)

[CruGuy]

Logan is 'AdjD' more a measure of defensive ability or total points allowed?

Total points allowed, with more recent games given more weight. The efficiency stats can give a better description of the defense's "quality" over the season. (if the link doesn't seem to work, hit refresh a few times)

Wow, that is fantastic work! Thank you. It appears the efficiency numbers like the UMHB defense significantly more than the AdjD would signal. 3 touchdowns allowed by offense/special teams in two weeks will do that to you.

[art76]

Art, do you follow me on twitter?

Actually, no. I'm an "old school" computer guy. Living on the edge for me is installing Linux Mint on an old HP tablet that had XP on it.

Never have tweeted - I own a flip phone for a cell phone.

[SaintsFAN]

Logan is 'AdjD' more a measure of defensive ability or total points allowed?

Total points allowed, with more recent games given more weight. The efficiency stats can give a better description of the defense's "quality" over the season. (if the link doesn't seem to work, hit refresh a few times)

Are you utilizing Baysian Theroem to grade your forecast results, Logan?? 

It caught my eye when you said you are weighting most recent results more heavily, like Bays pointed out.

[HansenRatings]

Logan is 'AdjD' more a measure of defensive ability or total points allowed?

Total points allowed, with more recent games given more weight. The efficiency stats can give a better description of the defense's "quality" over the season. (if the link doesn't seem to work, hit refresh a few times)

Are you utilizing Baysian Theroem to grade your forecast results, Logan?? 

It caught my eye when you said you are weighting most recent results more heavily, like Bays pointed out.

It's a Bayesian process, yes. The rushing/passing offensive/defensive yards/play numbers on the site are frequentist.

[SaintsFAN]

Logan is 'AdjD' more a measure of defensive ability or total points allowed?

Total points allowed, with more recent games given more weight. The efficiency stats can give a better description of the defense's "quality" over the season. (if the link doesn't seem to work, hit refresh a few times)

Are you utilizing Baysian Theroem to grade your forecast results, Logan?? 

It caught my eye when you said you are weighting most recent results more heavily, like Bays pointed out.

It's a Bayesian process, yes. The rushing/passing offensive/defensive yards/play numbers on the site are frequentist.

Gotcha.  You even spelled his name correctly.  Just curious.  We use his work at my firm, also.

[bleedpurple]

Art, do you follow me on twitter?

Here are my updated odds of advancing and winning the Stagg Bowl right now. UST's overall rating may be inflated right now after last week, because I don't discredit teams for "running up the score." What I find interesting is that UMHB's odds are actually lower right now than they were at the beginning of the tournament. Part of that is due to pretty much all of the favorites advancing so far (and thus ensuring UMHB would face quality opponents in later rounds; at the onset there was a chance some lesser teams could have advanced to the quarters/semis to face them), and part of that is UST and UWO passing them in my overall ratings.

So Mount Union has twice as good a chance to win the Stagg Bowl as UW-W. Right. Keep tweaking, brother!