2016 Playoffs

[Pat Coleman]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

[HansenRatings]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

Which would help increase their odds down the line also.

[HScoach]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

Which would help increase their odds down the line also.

So this Mount team has a better chance than UWW?   That's pretty funny.  I'll simply point to my tag line about statistics.   

[ExTartanPlayer]

Art, do you follow me on twitter?

Here are my updated odds of advancing and winning the Stagg Bowl right now. UST's overall rating may be inflated right now after last week, because I don't discredit teams for "running up the score." What I find interesting is that UMHB's odds are actually lower right now than they were at the beginning of the tournament. Part of that is due to pretty much all of the favorites advancing so far (and thus ensuring UMHB would face quality opponents in later rounds; at the onset there was a chance some lesser teams could have advanced to the quarters/semis to face them), and part of that is UST and UWO passing them in my overall ratings.

So Mount Union has twice as good a chance to win the Stagg Bowl as UW-W. Right. Keep tweaking, brother! 

This isn't that hard to understand, guys.

It's not just about how Mount and UWW would match up head-to-head.

UWW has a significantly harder path to arrive in the Stagg Bowl.

It is possible for UWW to be a better team than Mount, but have a lower probability of winning the Stagg Bowl.

[bleedpurple]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

If you are asking whether beating Albright is easier than beating John Carroll, yes, that is right. But we both know that much more lies between Mount winning the Stagg Bowl than Albright.

If getting through Saturday is primary data in determining chances to win the Stagg Bowl, let's look at UW-O. They play St. Thomas and are given a 35.1% chance of winning that game. UW-W is given a 65.6% chance of beating John Carroll.  Yet, UW-O is given more than twice the chance to win the Stagg Bowl than UW-W. 

But it's all good. UW-W is the clear underdog. Less than 7% chance. Hmmm, who knew? If we manage to get lucky against the OAC champs on Saturday, we'll show up and try to give UW-O or St. Thomas a good enough workout to get them ready for the Stagg Bowl. If nothing else, they ought to be able to rest their guys for the second half against us. 

[jknezek]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

If you are asking whether beating Albright is easier than beating John Carroll, yes, that is right. But we both know that much more lies between Mount winning the Stagg Bowl than Albright.

If getting through Saturday is primary data in determining chances to win the Stagg Bowl, let's look at UW-O. They play St. Thomas and are given a 35.1% chance of winning that game. UW-W is given a 65.6% chance of beating John Carroll.  Yet, UW-O is given more than twice the chance to win the Stagg Bowl than UW-W. 

But it's all good. UW-W is the clear underdog. Less than 7% chance. Hmmm, who knew? If we manage to get lucky against the OAC champs on Saturday, we'll show up and try to give UW-O or St. Thomas a good enough workout to get them ready for the Stagg Bowl. If nothing else, they ought to be able to rest their guys for the second half against us. 

I don't want to stand in the way of your righteous indignation, but you could at least get the teams right. They've probably earned that much this year. UMU plays Alfred. I know all East Region Teams look the same to you guys out West, but...

[HansenRatings]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

If you are asking whether beating Albright is easier than beating John Carroll, yes, that is right. But we both know that much more lies between Mount winning the Stagg Bowl than Albright.

If getting through Saturday is primary data in determining chances to win the Stagg Bowl, let's look at UW-O. They play St. Thomas and are given a 35.1% chance of winning that game. UW-W is given a 65.6% chance of beating John Carroll.  Yet, UW-O is given more than twice the chance to win the Stagg Bowl than UW-W. 

But it's all good. UW-W is the clear underdog. Less than 7% chance. Hmmm, who knew? If we manage to get lucky against the OAC champs on Saturday, we'll show up and try to give UW-O or St. Thomas a good enough workout to get them ready for the Stagg Bowl. If nothing else, they ought to be able to rest their guys for the second half against us. 

I don't want to stand in the way of your righteous indignation, but you could at least get the teams right. They've probably earned that much this year. UMU plays Alfred. I know all East Region Teams look the same to you guys out West, but...

Isn't Albright technically in the South Region though?

[wally_wabash]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

If you are asking whether beating Albright is easier than beating John Carroll, yes, that is right. But we both know that much more lies between Mount winning the Stagg Bowl than Albright.

If getting through Saturday is primary data in determining chances to win the Stagg Bowl, let's look at UW-O. They play St. Thomas and are given a 35.1% chance of winning that game. UW-W is given a 65.6% chance of beating John Carroll.  Yet, UW-O is given more than twice the chance to win the Stagg Bowl than UW-W. 

But it's all good. UW-W is the clear underdog. Less than 7% chance. Hmmm, who knew? If we manage to get lucky against the OAC champs on Saturday, we'll show up and try to give UW-O or St. Thomas a good enough workout to get them ready for the Stagg Bowl. If nothing else, they ought to be able to rest their guys for the second half against us. 

You're not even thinking about how those percentages come to be.  According to the model, Mount Union is advancing 90% of the time to the next round.  Whitewater is advancing 65% of the time.  In 10,000 simulations of these final three rounds, Whitewater is getting roughly 2500 fewer opportunities than Mount Union to even advance to the final, let alone win that final.  Out of that 2500 extra opportunities that Mount Union is getting (25% of the total simulations), is it unreasonable to think that the model might have them win 700 times?  Of course it isn't.  There's the difference.  I'm simplifying it a ton and probably doing the model some disservice, but it basically ALL comes from the model's prediction about Mount Union's result this weekend.  If you simply swapped Mount Union and Whitewater's positions, the numbers would reverse. 

Also, you can probably expect those percentages to flip around significantly after this weekend- where it looks to me like the model would say Mount Union and Whitewater are likely to be slight dogs in the next round (Whitewater to either St. Thomas or Oshkosh, Mount Union likely to UMHB). 

[jknezek]

I mean, they certainly have a better chance of getting through Saturday. You have to admit that, right?

If you are asking whether beating Albright is easier than beating John Carroll, yes, that is right. But we both know that much more lies between Mount winning the Stagg Bowl than Albright.

If getting through Saturday is primary data in determining chances to win the Stagg Bowl, let's look at UW-O. They play St. Thomas and are given a 35.1% chance of winning that game. UW-W is given a 65.6% chance of beating John Carroll.  Yet, UW-O is given more than twice the chance to win the Stagg Bowl than UW-W. 

But it's all good. UW-W is the clear underdog. Less than 7% chance. Hmmm, who knew? If we manage to get lucky against the OAC champs on Saturday, we'll show up and try to give UW-O or St. Thomas a good enough workout to get them ready for the Stagg Bowl. If nothing else, they ought to be able to rest their guys for the second half against us. 

I don't want to stand in the way of your righteous indignation, but you could at least get the teams right. They've probably earned that much this year. UMU plays Alfred. I know all East Region Teams look the same to you guys out West, but...

Isn't Albright technically in the South Region though?

No. Albright is in the MAC. That's East Region.

[HScoach]

Art, do you follow me on twitter?

Here are my updated odds of advancing and winning the Stagg Bowl right now. UST's overall rating may be inflated right now after last week, because I don't discredit teams for "running up the score." What I find interesting is that UMHB's odds are actually lower right now than they were at the beginning of the tournament. Part of that is due to pretty much all of the favorites advancing so far (and thus ensuring UMHB would face quality opponents in later rounds; at the onset there was a chance some lesser teams could have advanced to the quarters/semis to face them), and part of that is UST and UWO passing them in my overall ratings.

So Mount Union has twice as good a chance to win the Stagg Bowl as UW-W. Right. Keep tweaking, brother! 

This isn't that hard to understand, guys.

It's not just about how Mount and UWW would match up head-to-head.

UWW has a significantly harder path to arrive in the Stagg Bowl.

It is possible for UWW to be a better team than Mount, but have a lower probability of winning the Stagg Bowl.

I know how the statistics work, which is why I disagree with them.   Statistical analysis can't measure the actual capabilities of the teams and how their styles match up.

Mount is a big favorite this weekend over Alfred and UWW is slightly less favored over JCU.   I get it and 100% agree with it.

However, Mount would a HUGE underdog to MHB and who ever they face in the Stagg if they are fortunate enough to get there.   I would propose that UWW against STU or UWO and then MHB would be real close to 50/50 in each case.   Mount could have a 100% chance of making it to the Semi's and you still couldn't convince me they're more likely to win the title than UWW. 
 

[wally_wabash]

However, Mount would a HUGE underdog to MHB and who ever they face in the Stagg if they are fortunate enough to get there.   I would propose that UWW against STU or UWO and then MHB would be real close to 50/50 in each case.   Mount could have a 100% chance of making it to the Semi's and you still couldn't convince me they're more likely to win the title than UWW. 

The numbers will probably agree with this after Saturday. 

[USee]

Don't let the math get in the way of the "disrespected underdog status" which is a badge Bleed (and a few others) likes to wear with honor whenever possible even if no one else believes it.

[ITH radio]

I'm standing by my pick from our season finale that Mt makes it to the Stagg.

Sure, it's hard to compare teams from different regions and while the Cru deserves the respect they have earned, the last time they had a chance to advance past the Final Four their coach and team choked. The year before that they saw a leads of 28-14 and 35-28 disappear against Mount (albeit they were on the road). While the kids on this year's squad weren't around back then, I bet the coaches remember it well.

I think my pick is a good done b/c I have seen how well Mt's coaches have been calling games and making halftime adjustments in the Hobart and JHU games. I really do think the Raiders' coaching staff can be the difference over a more physically talented Cru team.

Before we go there, Alfred's up first (the East's last gasp). Hopefully we get some competitive games this wkd.

[HScoach]

As an avid follower of Mount since the late 1980's, there is no correlation between this Mount team and the last one MHB faced.

[HansenRatings]

I feel like I should make it clear that I'm not some crazy guy who believes this silly computer model I built is somehow omnipotent and knows the future. It's just something I do for fun to try to make sense of this gigantic and geographically isolated division of ours.

Also, the model is based only on points scored and allowed. I used to coach. I know there's more to the game than that. Just because momentum, confidence, coaching, and the ability to win close games are hard to quantify, doesn't mean they're not real. Here's a really good article from Ben Morris at fivethirtyeight.com about the caveats of relying too heavily on projections like mine (in the context of the NBA playoffs).

Mostly, he points out that "having been there before" is a quantifiable advantage in playoffs. Why is anybody's guess, but if you listen to Caruso's interviews from the last Stagg Bowl (and I'm guessing some old UWW interviews too circa 2006) he talks about how 2012 helped in 2015 for their prep. Scheduling practices, meals, etc. all can help in ways a computer isn't going to catch.