2016 Playoffs

[HScoach]

Who gets the home game next week? JCU or Oshkosh?

Has to be Oshkosh.  There's not one piece of criteria that favors John Carroll, including a h2h result which would be the hammer if the profiles were otherwise similar (which they aren't).

Other than UWW was seeded ahead of UST.   Which means JCU's bracket is higher than UWO's. 

[HansenRatings]

It is right now. Would be pretty much 50-50 in Ohio.

[wally_wabash]

Who gets the home game next week? JCU or Oshkosh?

Has to be Oshkosh.  There's not one piece of criteria that favors John Carroll, including a h2h result which would be the hammer if the profiles were otherwise similar (which they aren't).

Other than UWW was seeded ahead of UST.   Which means JCU's bracket is higher than UWO's.

If that's how they choose, then that would make sense.  Would be nice if anybody who knows would say so beforehand. 

[HansenRatings]

Who gets the home game next week? JCU or Oshkosh?

Has to be Oshkosh.  There's not one piece of criteria that favors John Carroll, including a h2h result which would be the hammer if the profiles were otherwise similar (which they aren't).

Other than UWW was seeded ahead of UST.   Which means JCU's bracket is higher than UWO's.

If the Top 8 teams were seeded like a traditional bracket, and UWW was seeded ahead of UST, then UWO would be a higher seed than JCU.

[Ralph Turner]

With the rumbling that Ohio State might be picked for the "Playoff 4", don't you like D-3 even more?

[SaintsFAN]

With the rumbling that Ohio State might be picked for the "Playoff 4", don't you like D-3 even more?

They are the only team who could potentially beat Bama, so I'm okay with that.

[Mr. Ypsi]

With the rumbling that Ohio State might be picked for the "Playoff 4", don't you like D-3 even more?

They are the only team who could potentially beat Bama, so I'm okay with that.

I disagree.  UM outplayed OSU, but lost due to 2 unforced turnovers (I could have scored on the pick-6, and I'm 68 and the fumble at the OSU 1, plus a face-mask call on the center far away from the play which cost 55 yards [15-yards plus negating a 40-yard run]), plus of course the ridiculously bad spot on 4th down in the second OT.  I saw the same replays as the officials (except I saw them on a large screen, hi-def TV in contrast to that I-pad screen they use ); it was an easy call because of the lines - J T Barrett's helmet crossed the 15, but the ball never came within 6+ inches.

Alas, UM will almost certainly not get that chance, since Washington beat Colorado.

[SaintsFAN]

With the rumbling that Ohio State might be picked for the "Playoff 4", don't you like D-3 even more?

They are the only team who could potentially beat Bama, so I'm okay with that.

I disagree.  UM outplayed OSU, but lost due to 2 unforced turnovers (I could have scored on the pick-6, and I'm 68 and the fumble at the OSU 1, plus a face-mask call on the center far away from the play which cost 55 yards [15-yards plus negating a 40-yard run]), plus of course the ridiculously bad spot on 4th down in the second OT.  I saw the same replays as the officials (except I saw them on a large screen, hi-def TV in contrast to that I-pad screen they use ); it was an easy call because of the lines - J T Barrett's helmet crossed the 15, but the ball never came within 6+ inches.

Alas, UM will almost certainly not get that chance, since Washington beat Colorado.

Right. They are the only team being considered for the playoff who can beat Bama (and they've done it before)

[wally_wabash]

With the rumbling that Ohio State might be picked for the "Playoff 4", don't you like D-3 even more?

They are the only team who could potentially beat Bama, so I'm okay with that.

I disagree.  UM outplayed OSU, but lost due to 2 unforced turnovers (I could have scored on the pick-6, and I'm 68 and the fumble at the OSU 1, plus a face-mask call on the center far away from the play which cost 55 yards [15-yards plus negating a 40-yard run]), plus of course the ridiculously bad spot on 4th down in the second OT.  I saw the same replays as the officials (except I saw them on a large screen, hi-def TV in contrast to that I-pad screen they use ); it was an easy call because of the lines - J T Barrett's helmet crossed the 15, but the ball never came within 6+ inches.

Alas, UM will almost certainly not get that chance, since Washington beat Colorado.

Not that I think this should take much more time away from what was a tremendous D3 Saturday, but Michigan won't get a chance in the FBS playoff because they no-showed against Iowa, which cost them the opportunity to beat up on Penn State (again) and have a conference championship notch on their belt, which would have put them in.  Don't blame Washington.  They had nothing to do with Michigan being out.  Michigan blew that all on their own. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

With the rumbling that Ohio State might be picked for the "Playoff 4", don't you like D-3 even more?

They are the only team who could potentially beat Bama, so I'm okay with that.

I disagree.  UM outplayed OSU, but lost due to 2 unforced turnovers (I could have scored on the pick-6, and I'm 68 and the fumble at the OSU 1, plus a face-mask call on the center far away from the play which cost 55 yards [15-yards plus negating a 40-yard run]), plus of course the ridiculously bad spot on 4th down in the second OT.  I saw the same replays as the officials (except I saw them on a large screen, hi-def TV in contrast to that I-pad screen they use ); it was an easy call because of the lines - J T Barrett's helmet crossed the 15, but the ball never came within 6+ inches.

Alas, UM will almost certainly not get that chance, since Washington beat Colorado.

Not that I think this should take much more time away from what was a tremendous D3 Saturday, but Michigan won't get a chance in the FBS playoff because they no-showed against Iowa, which cost them the opportunity to beat up on Penn State (again) and have a conference championship notch on their belt, which would have put them in.  Don't blame Washington.  They had nothing to do with Michigan being out.  Michigan blew that all on their own.

UM blew it in Iowa City for sure.  If they won that one, it would be a 3-way tie in the east (PSU, OSU, UM) - not sure who would have faced Wisconsin.

Not 'blaming' Washington.  But the committee went out of their way to say Washington was razor-thin over UM for 4th, so was hoping Colorado could pull it off.

But mainly I blame the officials in Columbus - in REALITY, UM won that game 27-24, despite their unforced turnovers.

[Ryan Stoppable]

With the rumbling that Ohio State might be picked for the "Playoff 4", don't you like D-3 even more?

They are the only team who could potentially beat Bama, so I'm okay with that.

I disagree.  UM outplayed OSU, but lost due to 2 unforced turnovers (I could have scored on the pick-6, and I'm 68 and the fumble at the OSU 1, plus a face-mask call on the center far away from the play which cost 55 yards [15-yards plus negating a 40-yard run]), plus of course the ridiculously bad spot on 4th down in the second OT.  I saw the same replays as the officials (except I saw them on a large screen, hi-def TV in contrast to that I-pad screen they use ); it was an easy call because of the lines - J T Barrett's helmet crossed the 15, but the ball never came within 6+ inches.

Alas, UM will almost certainly not get that chance, since Washington beat Colorado.

Not that I think this should take much more time away from what was a tremendous D3 Saturday, but Michigan won't get a chance in the FBS playoff because they no-showed against Iowa, which cost them the opportunity to beat up on Penn State (again) and have a conference championship notch on their belt, which would have put them in.  Don't blame Washington.  They had nothing to do with Michigan being out.  Michigan blew that all on their own.

UM blew it in Iowa City for sure.  If they won that one, it would be a 3-way tie in the east (PSU, OSU, UM) - not sure who would have faced Wisconsin.

Not 'blaming' Washington.  But the committee went out of their way to say Washington was razor-thin over UM for 4th, so was hoping Colorado could pull it off.

But mainly I blame the officials in Columbus - in REALITY, UM won that game 27-24, despite their unforced turnovers.

If my calculations are correct, had Michigan beaten Iowa and there been a three-way tie in the East at 8-1, Ohio State would have went to the title game. With no losses outside the triangle, we would skip past the in-conference tiebreakers; Penn State would be eliminated because they lost to Pitt and would have a worse overall record; and Ohio State would win the tiebreaker because, like it or not, they IN REALITY beat Michigan 30-27 and you can't just reject reality and substitute your own, otherwise the Badgers would have won tonight.

But going back to the original question, "the" College Football Playoff just goes to show that it's better to decide playoff teams on the field rather than by committee.

[smedindy]

I wanted to look at the NON-NESCAC Massey Ratings of the opponents the Final 4 played in the playoffs:

UMHB - Redlands (63) , Linfield (7),  Wheaton (10)
Mt. Union - Hobart (30),   Johns Hopkins (14),   Alfred (17)
Oshkosh - Wash U (37),   St. John's (11),   St. Thomas (6)
John Carroll - Olivet (58), Wesley (9), Whitwater (5)

Interesting.

[JCUStreaks70]

Hansen when are this week's odds coming out? I'm waiting with baited breath!!

[HansenRatings]

Aaaaaaaaand updated bracket odds. Haven't heard any grumbling from any of the fans for the remaining teams (not surprisingly, the UMHB fans have been pretty happy with my model all season. Helps when your team is #1 for about 8 of 11 weeks). Who wants to start the argument this week?

They're already up! The spreads work out to be UWO (-11.5) & UMHB (-7.5). My preseason ratings had the previous UWO/JCU game pegged pretty much spot-on, and both teams are playing better now than their preseason ratings predicted. JCU didn't get as much as a boost as you would expect from the UWW win, mostly because UWW had dropped all the way to #8 before the game. UMHB's rating has actually slipped a bit in the playoffs, but so has Mount's. They came into the tournament as the #1 & #2 teams in the country, and are now at #3 & #5.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Major kudos to all four defenses today.  The first game was a defensive struggle (as I expected) but I expected more like 20-17 than 10-3.  In the finale, I thought the LOSER of the game would score more points than BOTH teams together scored!

The six 'gurus' picked UWO over JCU by 25-23.  (Adam, to his credit, nailed UWO exactly at 10, but missed JCU by 21 - oops!)  They picked UMHB over UMU by 39-26.  TOGETHER they scored 26.   Not a good day for those of us trying to predict the future!