2016 Playoffs

[HansenRatings]

Stagg Bowl prediction from the model is UWO over UMHB, by an average of 0.4 points (22.7-22.3), or 50.9%. Which basically means this game is anybody's guess. both teams are spectacular.

Also, I just posted today my own take on All-American teams, using a metric I'm calling Yards Above Average Player as the metric of choice. YAAP takes into account a player's yards/play average, touchdown rate, and turnover rate relative to the national average, weighted by their number of touches. So players are rewarded for both quality (high average gain) and quantity (number of touches). You can see it all here, and the position-specific results below.

Quarterbacks


Running Backs


Wide Receivers


Return Specialists

[Pat Coleman]

I was going to tweet this question at you but since you posted, I'll do it here. Any thoughts about using SOS as a parameter in this list? It's one thing to roll up a bunch of yards in the UMAC, but another thing to do so in a mid-range conference, let alone a top-flight conference.

[hazzben]

I was going to tweet this question at you but since you posted, I'll do it here. Any thoughts about using SOS as a parameter in this list? It's one thing to roll up a bunch of yards in the UMAC, but another thing to do so in a mid-range conference, let alone a top-flight conference.

I had the same thought. But again, drooling over the extra stats!!

[HansenRatings]

I was going to tweet this question at you but since you posted, I'll do it here. Any thoughts about using SOS as a parameter in this list? It's one thing to roll up a bunch of yards in the UMAC, but another thing to do so in a mid-range conference, let alone a top-flight conference.

I could, and I think I will, but I wanted to put something out the same day as the AFCA. I already have the average opponents' strength calculated in the background of the team-by-team pages, so it's just a matter of merging the two spreadsheets. Seems weird to see Dylan Hecker not in the Top 20 for rushing value-added, but he faced the best rushing defenses in the country.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Logan, I was surprised that Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore didn't make the top 20.  IWU has played football for 125 seasons, and he just broke the all-time single-season rushing record!  Maybe once you adjust for SoS he'll be there; if not, how far down was he?

[HansenRatings]

Logan, I was surprised that Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore didn't make the top 20.  IWU has played football for 125 seasons, and he just broke the all-time single-season rushing record!  Maybe once you adjust for SoS he'll be there; if not, how far down was he?

He's at #30 for All-Purpose Yards among RB's (384 Yards Above Average Player), and #53 in rushing only (356 YAAP). He was hurt by a pretty poor rushing average (relative to the national leaders), and only 9 TD's in nearly 200 touches, which is about half the TD rate of the top backs. So his ANY/A is only 1.93 yards above the national average. The CCIW was the second-strongest conference in my model this year, so he'll probably crack the Top 20 in all-purpose after an opponent adjustment.

[HansenRatings]

Here are the results after accounting for opponent quality.

Top QBs


Top RBs


Top WRs


Top Return Specialists

[Mr. Ypsi]

Thanks!  I'm not familiar enough with the WRs and Return Specialists to comment, but the QBs and RBs now look much more like I would have expected.

[HScoach]

Hansen, that's pretty cool.   Excellent way of leveling out the statistical playing field.

[SaintsFAN]

Excellent work, Hansen.

I really like the stats/rankings adjusted for opponent quality vs. without the adjustment.

[wesleydad]

Looking forward to the game tonight.  I am baffled as to why UMHB struggled against Mount's D last week and if Oshkosh has a better defense, and numbers say they do, then UMHB may struggle against them also.  Oshkosh does not seem to present a high scoring offense, but they have been able to put up points in the playoffs.  This game could go either way, I had both in the finals with UMHB my choice pre playoffs, but I am just thinking that Oshkosh will score enough and cause UMHB enough trouble on offense to eek out a win, 20 - 17.  This has been a fun playoff season.

[D3MAFAN]

Looking forward to the game tonight.  I am baffled as to why UMHB struggled against Mount's D last week and if Oshkosh has a better defense, and numbers say they do, then UMHB may struggle against them also.  Oshkosh does not seem to present a high scoring offense, but they have been able to put up points in the playoffs.  This game could go either way, I had both in the finals with UMHB my choice pre playoffs, but I am just thinking that Oshkosh will score enough and cause UMHB enough trouble on offense to eek out a win, 20 - 17.  This has been a fun playoff season.

I picked UMHB in my pick'em, but I think weather will play a big part, it is tough going from 50 degree weather to the 10's & 20's. I think UW-Oshkosh scores the first 10 points and holds and UMHB warms up in the 2nd half, but UW-Oshkosh gets either a late turnover to prevent UMHB from scoring or one of those late big option runs to seal the game.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Congrats Crusaders... Stagg Bowl XLIV champs Excellent effort from the Titans too

[Ralph Turner]

Last night, in an obscure location just outside Salem Virginia, University of Mary-Hardin-Baylor was inducted into the very exclusive Order of the Purple.  Joining the Cru for the ceremony were Mount Union, UW-Whitewater, Linfield and Albion.  The Walnut and Bronze was presented by the Cru as evidence of worthiness to attend the joyful occasion and to be admitted to the Order. The Order of the Purple strives to maintain the Walnut and Bronze amongst its esteemed members and the eligible applicants to join this select group.

The quest from the next Walnut and Bronze will begin next September.

[Ralph Turner]

One last thought about the 2016 CFB bowl games.

Is a 5-7 team getting a bid to a CFB bowl game the equivalent of the "Participation Trophy"?