Pool C in 2016

[HansenRatings]

The National Committee is given recommendations from the Regional Committees, and unless they strongly disagree with how the regions rank their teams, they will evaluate one team from each region against each other. So UWP could have a better resume than a team ahead of them in the regional ranking, but wouldn't be eligible for Pool C consideration until that team was in the tournament.

With that said, it's also extremely unlikely that a team that finished third in their conference outright (no wins over a team that finished ahead of them) gets into the tournament. In two separate instances over the last few years, the committee has said that they will not take a third-place team from a conference.

In 2012, I know a certain head coach for a team that finished 8-2 (5-2), and tied for second in their conference, but the team they tied with beat them and finished 7-3 (5-2), and the chair of the national committee told him they couldn't take a 3rd place team from a conference (if you catch my drift)

You mean they wouldn't take the 3rd place team over the 2nd place team or just a 3rd place team overall? I only ask because they have taken a 3rd place team at least once, i think in 2007, when the E8 got two pool C bids.

Yes, they took a third-place team in '07, but have said pretty consistently since then that they won't give an at-large to a team the finishes third in their conference, or to a third team from a conference.

Agreed. I just wanted to be sure I was interpreting that correctly. Thanks again for designing your model. It's informative and interesting to follow!

Thanks. I'm glad some people are into it, because my fiance doesn't seem to be that into me being on my laptop all evening some nights!

[wally_wabash]

Thanks. I'm glad some people are into it, because my fiance doesn't seem to be that into me being on my laptop all evening some nights!

I feel you on that.  The matchup between my wife and the amount of time I spend pottering around with Division III football has a game score of like 0.04. 

[wally_wabash]

Live shot of my afternoon. 

[D3MAFAN]

Live shot of my afternoon. 

Ha, I hear you on that.

[ITH radio]

Live shot of my afternoon. 

That's funny. I'm guessing it'll show up around 3-5pm ET, probably on the later side but maybe Rd1 will be easier given that there's still a decent amount of undefeated teams still in the queue.

[HansenRatings]

Live shot of my afternoon. 

Pat's being quite the tease by posting a regional rankings page before the rankings have been released.

[D3MAFAN]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2016/first-regional-ranking

The rankings are here.

[HansenRatings]

Biggest question to me comes out of the East Region

1-loss SJFU & Salisbury ahead of undefeated SLU, if SLU loses to Hobart, will a 2-loss SJFU or Salisbury still be ahead of them?

[ITH radio]

Ok with ERR other than Albright. Bad read by RAC IMO. 0-2 vs RROs but I guess their SOS is bolstered b/c of who they lost to but I don't see them getting in at 8-2.

[ITH radio]

Biggest question to me comes out of the East Region

1-loss SJFU & Salisbury ahead of undefeated SLU, if SLU loses to Hobart, will a 2-loss SJFU or Salisbury still be ahead of them?

Maybe, if not definitely. SLU has a serious SOS problem. They could be left out of Pool C even at 9-1 b/c it. The LL title game is basically an elimination game. Whoever loses is out of the NCAAs.

[D3MAFAN]

Biggest question to me comes out of the East Region

1-loss SJFU & Salisbury ahead of undefeated SLU, if SLU loses to Hobart, will a 2-loss SJFU or Salisbury still be ahead of them?

Maybe, if not definitely. SLU has a serious SOS problem. They could be left out of Pool C even at 9-1 b/c it. The LL title game is basically an elimination game. Whoever loses is out of the NCAAs.

Morrisville State definitely hurt them this year, no one expected Morrisville to be winless. I think St. Lawrence should be rooting for Norwich to win the ECFC and possibly jump into the final rankings as conference champ and Morrisville beats both Brockport and Alfred State. However, St. Lawrence controls its own destiny, all they have to do is win baby win.

[Pat Coleman]

Live shot of my afternoon. 

Pat's being quite the tease by posting a regional rankings page before the rankings have been released.

I figured some people might like to hit refresh on our site rather than ncaa.com. We need the page views.

[art76]

Live shot of my afternoon. 

So what's the hold-up, Wally? 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Here's a first batch of RR Hot Takes for you:

EAST: Hard to quibble with anything there.  One interesting point - will SJF remain that high if they lose to Alfred?  Right now they would be the first Pool C on the board from the East...and one would think that if they're currently held in high enough esteem to be ranked #3, that a close loss against an undefeated #1 should not change that, but we've seen previous examples where this happens.  Also, the NJAC round-robin that's about to unfold between Salisbury and Wesley/Frostburg State has some jumbling potential.  Still a lot to be sorted out here.

NORTH: I think Wheaton is safely into Pool C if they win out.  John Carroll is in an interesting spot: will they stay that high in the RR's if/when they take a second loss to Mount Union?  Very similar position to the Alfred/SJF situation in the East.  It's critical for JCU's Pool C chances that they stay nestled right behind Wheaton and get onto the board as quickly as possible.

SOUTH: Now here we have a potential Pool C logjam thanks to the "CWRU and Thomas More don't play each other" situation.  Right now, assuming UMHB gets the Pool B bid, HSU will be the first C on the board from the South (if they beat ETBU this weekend)...which would (possibly) leave an undefeated Case Western team sittin, waitin, wishin for at least 1 or 2 rounds of Pool C deliberation.

WEST: UWO looks like they're in pretty good shape.  Platteville sitting down at 8 is probably bad news for the WIAC's chances of getting three into the tourney; they'll be the third team in line from the West, and with the South potentially bringing an undefeated team to the table...it's going to be tight...

Can't wait for wally's projection exercises.

[smedindy]

For me, if JCU loses to Mt. Union and it's a decently close game, would they jam the NCAC runner-up?