Pool C in 2016

[HansenRatings]

Here's a first batch of RR Hot Takes for you:

EAST: Hard to quibble with anything there.  One interesting point - will SJF remain that high if they lose to Alfred?  Right now they would be the first Pool C on the board from the East...and one would think that if they're currently held in high enough esteem to be ranked #3, that a close loss against an undefeated #1 should not change that, but we've seen previous examples where this happens.  Also, the NJAC round-robin that's about to unfold between Salisbury and Wesley/Frostburg State has some jumbling potential.  Still a lot to be sorted out here.

NORTH: I think Wheaton is safely into Pool C if they win out.  John Carroll is in an interesting spot: will they stay that high in the RR's if/when they take a second loss to Mount Union?  Very similar position to the Alfred/SJF situation in the East.  It's critical for JCU's Pool C chances that they stay nestled right behind Wheaton and get onto the board as quickly as possible.

SOUTH: Now here we have a potential Pool C logjam thanks to the "CWRU and Thomas More don't play each other" situation.  Right now, assuming UMHB gets the Pool B bid, HSU will be the first C on the board from the South (if they beat ETBU this weekend)...which would (possibly) leave an undefeated Case Western team sittin, waitin, wishin for at least 1 or 2 rounds of Pool C deliberation.

WEST: UWO looks like they're in pretty good shape.  Platteville sitting down at 8 is probably bad news for the WIAC's chances of getting three into the tourney; they'll be the third team in line from the West, and with the South potentially bringing an undefeated team to the table...it's going to be tight...

Can't wait for wally's projection exercises.

I see a pretty big difference between Fisher in the East and John Carroll in the North.

In the East, most of those teams have matchups against each other still looming, meaning for the teams below Fisher to be in the Pool C discussion, they would have a loss somewhere in the next two weeks.

In the North, JCU has to lose to be in the Pool C discussion. Wittenberg, Franklin, and Wabash could all potentially be Pool C teams without picking up another loss.

For Case, if they go 10-0 they're in. I think the deliberation comes into effect if they lose one of the next two. Is a one-loss Case ahead of a 1-loss Muhlenberg/SAA runner-up/ODAC runner-up?

I'm a pretty staunch believer that UW-P is out. UWO and SJU will be in if they win out. They're 1-loss runners up in the two best conferences in the country. Neither the WIAC nor MIAC has had a 1-loss runner up kept out of the tournament before.

[wally_wabash]

I think one thing to keep in mind as we read these regional rankings is that there is a part of the rankings that we don't see- the vote totals.  Like the Top 25 poll or any of the regional polls folks do in these forums, there are clusters and gaps and clusters and gaps.  So, for instance, we know John Carroll is 4th in the North region's rankings, but we don't know if they're closer to Wheaton than they are to Olivet (or Denison or Wittenberg).  Similarly in the South, CWRU is ranked higher than Thomas More, but that vote total could be super close.  Just something to consider.  Alright, back to the bunker.  I'll have a projection up soonish.  Before Game 7 starts for sure. 

[Ralph Turner]

IMHO, South Region:  (Assume all teams win out.)

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-0 8-0  Pool B bid
2. Johns Hopkins 8-0 8-0  Pool A (Centennial)
3. Hardin-Simmons 7-1 5-1   (Winning out against ETBU and McMurry)  Pool C along with UW-Oshkosh and Wheaton IL
4. Case Western Reserve 8-0 8-0  (Winning out but not the Pres AC AQ) Undefeated Pool C, last one off the table.
5. Thomas More 8-1 8-1  Pool A bid from the Pres AC, according the discussions about tie-breakers on the Pres AC message board
6. Muhlenberg 7-1 7-1  Pool C and left on the table
7. Berry 7-1 7-1    SAA Pool A
8. Maryville 7-1 7-1  USA South Pool A
9. East Texas Baptist 7-1 5-1  2-loss Pool C bid (Lost to UMHB and HSU; probably cannot jump either Muhlenberg or CWRU with win over HSU)
10. Randolph-Macon 7-1 7-1  ODAC Pool A bid

[wally_wabash]

Alright, here we go.  25 Pool A's, 1 Pool B, 6 Pool C's.  I hope we know the drill on how at-large selection works both from a criteria POV and the mechanics of the process.  Let's get started. 

The 25 Pool A's as of this moment:


I'm going to put teams that have clinched in gold cells - so far just Coe has clinched a Pool A bid. 
I'm going to denote changes from last week by making changed Pool A projections in a blueish tinted text.  This week just two Pool A bid projections have changed: RHIT has unseated Franklin in the Heartland and Randolph-Macon took control of the ODAC. 

Pool B

1S Mary Hardin-Baylor: 8-0, 3-0 vs. RROs, 0.590 (17th) SOS

No change in my stance here from last week.  UMHB has put together one of the best seasons in the division and probably needs to be one of the top two overall seeds in the tournament.  Whether that happens or not, who knows.  UMHB getting this Pool B bid is an absolute lock though. 

Now after UMHB comes out for Pool B, the remaining regional boards look as follows:
East: SJF, Hobart, Albright, Wesley, Frostburg State
North: Wheaton, John Carroll, Wittenberg, Franklin, Wabash
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Muhlenberg, Berry, ETBU
West: UW-Oshkosh, St. John's, UW-Platteville, Concordia-Moorhead

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
3N Wheaton - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.588 (22)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.553 (54)
3E St. John Fisher - 7-1, 1-0 RRO, 0.594 (15)
3W UW-Oshkosh - 6-1, 2-1 RRO, 0.625 (3)

Oshkosh remains a pretty clear choice as the first team invited through Pool C.  The win percentage is a push (we tend to apply the win percentage criteria by counting losses rather than calculating the actual win percentage) and Oshkosh has advantages in the RRO and SOS categories.  Titans are in and really only a second loss is going to change this. 

Round 2:
3N Wheaton - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.588 (22)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.553 (54)
3E St. John Fisher - 7-1, 1-0 RRO, 0.594 (15)
6W St. John's- 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.488 (146)

SJF's RRO win over 5N Olivet gives them an edge over Wheaton here.  Now is a good time to talk about SJF's final two games.  They can win both and win the E8 which changes this projection (sort of).  If they lose to Alfred, they pick up a second loss, but I kind of think they stay the top ranked at-large team in the East even with that loss.  If they beat Alfred and Alfred falls into Pool C at 9-1, the Saxons are going to go in here.  So you can think of this place as the E8 runner up if you like.  Those big SOS's really help E8 teams. 

Round 3:
3N Wheaton - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.588 (22)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.553 (54)
6E Hobart - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.571 (33)
6W St. John's- 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.488 (146)

This is kind of a toss up between Wheaton and H-SU.  I'm going with Wheaton at this point because of the SOS edge and I'm going to fudge a little with future results.  While H-SU may catch and surpass Wheaton in the SOS department, beating ETBU is going to knock them out of the rankings while I think there's a decent chance attrition in the North is going to result in Illinois Wesleyan floating into the North's rankings eventually (next week).  So I'm anticipating an RRO advantage for Wheaton by the time we get to the end here. 

Round 4:
4N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.466 (176)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.553 (54)
6E Hobart - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.571 (33)
6W St. John's- 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.488 (146)

Now it gets tricky because JCU is likely to pick up a second loss to Mount Union which (probably) impacts their place in line.  That SOS is pretty rough this week for John Carroll as well.  Hobart has a great SOS, but they also have zero results against ranked opponents (more evidence of the gaping holes that exist in the NCAA's SOS calculus).  I'm taking Hardin-Simmons in this round on the combo platter of their high SOS and a 20-15 result against what might be the tournament's top seed.  That RRO result compared to the RRO results of the other contenders here is an advantage for the Cowboys. 

Round 5:
4N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.466 (176)
4S Case Western Reserve - 8-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.455 (192)
6E Hobart - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.571 (33)
6W St. John's - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.488 (146)

I ran into this problem last week with St. John's, too.  They've been around now for four rounds, their profile is The Muhlenberg™, and there's just nothing particularly exciting about St. John's beyond their history and the reputation of their league.  None of these things are criteria.  And yet, 9-1 St. John's isn't not playing in this tournament.  So in go the Johnnies, and there's not a particularly compelling reason why.  But that's just how it's going to go. 

Round 6:
4N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.466 (176)
4S Case Western Reserve - 8-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.455 (192)
6E Hobart - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.571 (33)
8W UW-Platteville - 5-2, 0-2 RRO, 0.608 (8)

Despite a lack of any regionally ranked wins (or losses) and a poor SOS, an undefeated team isn't getting left out.  So the Spartans are my last team in. 

[smedindy]

I can't argue with any logic. I also don't see a path for an NCAC runner-up here, unless SJF has two losses and the committee really looks at those two losses. But their criteria is so strong otherwise.

Wheaton's SOS will fall when they play Carroll, but not so they have to worry about dropping in these rankings. One loss Wheaton or H-S is going to go.

If having to pick a one-loss NCAC member or St. John's, I can guarantee St. John's is going to go. And really, there's no argument. The NCAC runners-up will have played either Capital, Albion or Marietta as their non-conference game.

I do think CWRU will go off earlier than sixth. But that will just leave Muhlenberg on the table.

[wally_wabash]

I can't argue with any logic. I also don't see a path for an NCAC runner-up here, unless SJF has two losses and the committee really looks at those two losses. But their criteria is so strong otherwise.

Wheaton's SOS will fall when they play Carroll, but not so they have to worry about dropping in these rankings. One loss Wheaton or H-S is going to go.

If having to pick a one-loss NCAC member or St. John's, I can guarantee St. John's is going to go. And really, there's no argument. The NCAC runners-up will have played either Capital, Albion or Marietta as their non-conference game.

I do think CWRU will go off earlier than sixth. But that will just leave Muhlenberg on the table.

Had Wittenberg been ranked ahead of John Carroll (probably should have been, honestly) they have a compelling profile at this stage of the game (less so when their SOS falls closer to the middle of the pack over the next two weeks).  But given today's rankings, no, the NCAC runner up isn't going anywhere.  I do think that the NCAC runner up will be in the discussion for a few rounds after JCU loses.  Whether it's Wittenberg (with Denison as the league AQ) or Wabash (with Wittenberg as the league AQ), there should be some conversation about inviting the league co-champion.  Whether they go in or not, who knows.  Have to see how the rest of this plays out. 

If CWRU gets to 10-0, the South region shouldn't jerk them around and rank them behind the ASC runner up.  Rank them third and get them in the field without the drama we got from Centre a couple of years ago. 

[Ralph Turner]

I can't argue with any logic. I also don't see a path for an NCAC runner-up here, unless SJF has two losses and the committee really looks at those two losses. But their criteria is so strong otherwise.

Wheaton's SOS will fall when they play Carroll, but not so they have to worry about dropping in these rankings. One loss Wheaton or H-S is going to go.

If having to pick a one-loss NCAC member or St. John's, I can guarantee St. John's is going to go. And really, there's no argument. The NCAC runners-up will have played either Capital, Albion or Marietta as their non-conference game.

I do think CWRU will go off earlier than sixth. But that will just leave Muhlenberg on the table.

Had Wittenberg been ranked ahead of John Carroll (probably should have been, honestly) they have a compelling profile at this stage of the game (less so when their SOS falls closer to the middle of the pack over the next two weeks).  But given today's rankings, no, the NCAC runner up isn't going anywhere.  I do think that the NCAC runner up will be in the discussion for a few rounds after JCU loses.  Whether it's Wittenberg (with Denison as the league AQ) or Wabash (with Wittenberg as the league AQ), there should be some conversation about inviting the league co-champion.  Whether they go in or not, who knows.  Have to see how the rest of this plays out. 

If CWRU gets to 10-0, the South region shouldn't jerk them around and rank them behind the ASC runner up.  Rank them third and get them in the field without the drama we got from Centre a couple of years ago.

Good!  I agree and then send them to Belton to play the CRU in the first round and send HSU any place else in the country.

I will take UMHB and spot CWRU 21 points.   

[smedindy]

The way the committee ranked the North, Franklin's going to be ahead of Wabash on SOS and will also have a 1-1 RR record. I'm kind of surprised RHIT isn't ahead of Franklin. Still, they'd be ahead of Wabash now.

Let's say SJF loses to Alfred. Hobart beats St. Lawrence. Does SJF's SOS advantage keep it above St. Lawrence?

[USee]

Rose has 2 losses and Franklin only has 1 that's why they are ranked that way.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Here's a first batch of RR Hot Takes for you:

EAST: Hard to quibble with anything there.  One interesting point - will SJF remain that high if they lose to Alfred?  Right now they would be the first Pool C on the board from the East...and one would think that if they're currently held in high enough esteem to be ranked #3, that a close loss against an undefeated #1 should not change that, but we've seen previous examples where this happens.  Also, the NJAC round-robin that's about to unfold between Salisbury and Wesley/Frostburg State has some jumbling potential.  Still a lot to be sorted out here.

NORTH: I think Wheaton is safely into Pool C if they win out.  John Carroll is in an interesting spot: will they stay that high in the RR's if/when they take a second loss to Mount Union?  Very similar position to the Alfred/SJF situation in the East.  It's critical for JCU's Pool C chances that they stay nestled right behind Wheaton and get onto the board as quickly as possible.

SOUTH: Now here we have a potential Pool C logjam thanks to the "CWRU and Thomas More don't play each other" situation.  Right now, assuming UMHB gets the Pool B bid, HSU will be the first C on the board from the South (if they beat ETBU this weekend)...which would (possibly) leave an undefeated Case Western team sittin, waitin, wishin for at least 1 or 2 rounds of Pool C deliberation.

WEST: UWO looks like they're in pretty good shape.  Platteville sitting down at 8 is probably bad news for the WIAC's chances of getting three into the tourney; they'll be the third team in line from the West, and with the South potentially bringing an undefeated team to the table...it's going to be tight...

Can't wait for wally's projection exercises.

I see a pretty big difference between Fisher in the East and John Carroll in the North.

In the East, most of those teams have matchups against each other still looming, meaning for the teams below Fisher to be in the Pool C discussion, they would have a loss somewhere in the next two weeks.

In the North, JCU has to lose to be in the Pool C discussion. Wittenberg, Franklin, and Wabash could all potentially be Pool C teams without picking up another loss.

For Case, if they go 10-0 they're in. I think the deliberation comes into effect if they lose one of the next two. Is a one-loss Case ahead of a 1-loss Muhlenberg/SAA runner-up/ODAC runner-up?

I'm a pretty staunch believer that UW-P is out. UWO and SJU will be in if they win out. They're 1-loss runners up in the two best conferences in the country. Neither the WIAC nor MIAC has had a 1-loss runner up kept out of the tournament before.

I understand that, but I'm talking specifically about the frustrating case where a team drops a few spots in the RR's solely for picking up another loss, even when that loss is a highly competitive one against a higher-ranked team.

If the RR's currently think that John Carroll is the fourth-best team in the North today, and they lose by a touchdown to the #1 ranked North team to end the regular season, it makes no sense that they should then drop below Wittenberg, Franklin, or Wabash after that happens (since none of those teams have anything left on their schedule that would be a better "result" than that).  And yet, we've seen this happen before...I'll have to look it up but once in the East I remember someone getting dropped a few slots in the RR's after a close loss against the #1 or #2 team in the rankings, and trying to figure out why that made any sense.

[HansenRatings]

I understand that, but I'm talking specifically about the frustrating case where a team drops a few spots in the RR's solely for picking up another loss, even when that loss is a highly competitive one against a higher-ranked team.

If the RR's currently think that John Carroll is the fourth-best team in the North today, and they lose by a touchdown to the #1 ranked North team to end the regular season, it makes no sense that they should then drop below Wittenberg, Franklin, or Wabash after that happens (since none of those teams have anything left on their schedule that would be a better "result" than that).  And yet, we've seen this happen before...I'll have to look it up but once in the East I remember someone getting dropped a few slots in the RR's after a close loss against the #1 or #2 team in the rankings, and trying to figure out why that made any sense.

A few things, 1) it does make sense, because the first Primary Criteria is winning percentage against DIII opponents. A loss can change a team's winning percentage without changing their perceived strength. 2) For Wabash to be in the Pool C discussion, they would have a better result than that (according to the Primary Criteria)--a win against Denison, another RRO. And Witt seems like they would have a comparable SOS. 3) These rankings aren't meant to be a "who would probably win in a matchup" ranking, that's what Top 25's and computer rankings are for. I personally think JCU is a better team, but with two losses, they're probably not more deserving than a one-loss Witt/Franklin/Wabash (I think Wabash would probably leap-frog Franklin with a W vs. Denison).

As for Wally's analysis, I would probably agree with how he slotted teams right now. If I were projecting which teams were more likely to get in after Week 11 though, I would probably keep Case out, because I don't think they'll go undefeated (I think they're better than both Westminster and CMU, but odds are they'll lose one), and slot Muhlenberg in their place, because they seem really likely to win out, and I don't see a second 1-loss team from the East or North (or UW-Platteville) getting in ahead of them.

[RtSLl3100]

I would agree with Hansen. I wonder if the order went uwo, sju, hsu, Wheaton, case (if they stay undefeated), then the six round would get interesting if JCU, uwp, muhl, and Hobart are on the board. Would like to see what JCU sos would go to if they loss to mount. Since we know that a loss is a loss does not matter to who or how close

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Do the committees factor in possible RRO from other regions before the first ranking (e.g. Franklin's win over Thomas More) or do they wait until after the first rankings to know for sure then factor it in on the 2nd rankings?

[RtSLl3100]

For SOS yes, but not for wins of RRO. The RRO is for the at large spots and how the process works of seeing who should represent each region each round.

[HansenRatings]

Do the committees factor in possible RRO from other regions before the first ranking (e.g. Franklin's win over Thomas More) or do they wait until after the first rankings to know for sure then factor it in on the 2nd rankings?

That's a good question, and not something I've thought of before. I suspect they, at some level, have the same outlook Pat & Keith have preached for years about Quality Wins > Quality Losses, and they know who will probably be ranked in other regions.

Someone like the guys from In The HuddLLe probably know those insider secrets better.