Pool C in 2016

[smedindy]

As usual, the next to last week provides some clarity on muddy waters, but muddies up other waters.

For me, the question is what happens to St. Lawrence? Will they be ranked below SJF?

[Pat Coleman]

As usual, the next to last week provides some clarity on muddy waters, but muddies up other waters.

For me, the question is what happens to St. Lawrence? Will they be ranked below SJF?

They were when the week started, so I suspect that continues this week.

[smedindy]

As usual, the next to last week provides some clarity on muddy waters, but muddies up other waters.

For me, the question is what happens to St. Lawrence? Will they be ranked below SJF?

They were when the week started, so I suspect that continues this week.

Never post on the run...

[wally_wabash]

As usual, the next to last week provides some clarity on muddy waters, but muddies up other waters.

For me, the question is what happens to St. Lawrence? Will they be ranked below SJF?

They were when the week started, so I suspect that continues this week.

Never post on the run...

We can spin it forward one week and wonder if 9-1 SLU would be ranked ahead of 8-2 SJF.  That's an order that dominoes all the way through Pool C.  I think the Alfred/SJF loser stays the top ranked at-large team in the East, but it's not quite as clear if SJF is 8-2. 

[smedindy]

As usual, the next to last week provides some clarity on muddy waters, but muddies up other waters.

For me, the question is what happens to St. Lawrence? Will they be ranked below SJF?

They were when the week started, so I suspect that continues this week.

That's kind of what I was thinking.

I'm also intrigued what happens if St. John's loses to C-M. Is Platteville still ahead of C-M? Does that open up things clearly for a 1-loss Wabash, a 1-D3 loss Franklin, or a 2-loss John Carroll? Or will Muhlenberg do the 'Muhlenberg' again? Will Frostburg rise up enough to take a spot if they beat Salisbury.

I do think, barring something unusual, that Hardin-Simmons is in and ETBU is out.



Never post on the run...

We can spin it forward one week and wonder if 9-1 SLU would be ranked ahead of 8-2 SJF.  That's an order that dominoes all the way through Pool C.  I think the Alfred/SJF loser stays the top ranked at-large team in the East, but it's not quite as clear if SJF is 8-2.

[art76]

I have a "what if" question for the gurus here: Is it to the advantage of the West Regional Committee to rank Concordia-Moorhead ahead of UW Platteville this week? I ask, because if the Cobbers end up winning this coming weekend, they would have better results than Platteville - 1-1 against Regionally Ranked Opponents. They would also be the second place team in their conference. If the Cobbers lose, the "super secret" rankings could switch them back. Of course, now that I write this out, the committee could swap them in that last ranking as well, depending on the outcomes of those final games in week 11.  If the object is to get two teams in from the West, whose resume looks better at the end of the season?

[wally_wabash]

I have a "what if" question for the gurus here: Is it to the advantage of the West Regional Committee to rank Concordia-Moorhead ahead of UW Platteville this week? I ask, because if the Cobbers end up winning this coming weekend, they would have better results than Platteville - 1-1 against Regionally Ranked Opponents. They would also be the second place team in their conference. If the Cobbers lose, the "super secret" rankings could switch them back. Of course, now that I write this out, the committee could swap them in that last ranking as well, depending on the outcomes of those final games in week 11.  If the object is to get two teams in from the West, whose resume looks better at the end of the season?

I think the objective for the regional committees is to rank the teams according to the NCAA's criteria.  If that gets multiple teams from a region in, great.  If not, also great.  That's not to say that committees aren't free to try and game the system, but I don't think that's the mandate and it would be a bummer to ever learn that that's a thing that happens.  Rank the teams fairly and objectively and let the chips fall where they may. 

To answer the original question though, I don't think there's a compelling reason for C-M to move ahead of UW-P this week.  Next week, maybe. 

[hazzben]

WEST REGION
James Catanzaro, co-chair, Lake Forest, Midwest
Rod Sandberg, co-chair, Whitworth, Northwest
Jay Anderson, Buena Vista, Iowa Intercollegiate
Glen Caruso, St. Thomas (MN), Minnesota Intercol.
Damon Tomeo, Knox, Midwest
Chris Casey, George Fox, Northwest
Jaime Hoffman, Occidental, SCIAC
Clayt Birmingham, Wisconsin-Stout, Wisconsin Intercollegiate
John Auer, Crown Upper, Midwest

Two Midwest and one UMAC rep makes me wonder if this is why Northwestern is getting ranked. Lesser conferences sticking up for one another?

T9. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1  .429 SOS  >> They've already clinched their Pool A. But it could affect seeding and matchups. There's just no signature win on that schedule. I don't think we've ever seen a UMAC team ranked unless they were unbeaten. My assumption is that they'll still be Rd 1 canon fodder for UST, but it's surprising none the less.

[ITH radio]

As usual, the next to last week provides some clarity on muddy waters, but muddies up other waters.

For me, the question is what happens to St. Lawrence? Will they be ranked below SJF?

Yep. Here's Frank's ERR projection:

"Note that 7-8-9 are pretty much interchangeable, but the winner of Frostburg/Salisbury likely finishes ahead of SLU.  That means the loser of Fisher/Alfred and the winner of Frostburg/Salisbury are ahead of SLU for Pool C consideration.

1) Alfred 9-0 .552 0-0 RRO
2) Hobart 8-1 .605 1-0 RRO
3) Fisher 8-1 .563 1-0 RRO
4) Stevenson 8-1 .501 1-0 RRO
5) Wesley 7-2 .584 2-0 RRO
6) WNE 9-0 .500 0-0 RRO
7) Frostburg 8-1 .504 0-1 RRO
8) Salisbury 7-2 .533 1-1 RRO
9) SLU 8-1 .500 0-1 RRO
10) Albright 7-2 .517 0-2 RRO

MISSING THE BOARD (In No Order):

Husson 8-1 .440 0-1 RRO
DVC 7-2 .495 1-2 RRO (lost to Albright, lower SOS than WES & ALB)
Bridgewater St. 7-2 .503 0-0 RRO
Salve Regina 7-1 .511 0-1 RRO"

[Ralph Turner]

WEST REGION
James Catanzaro, co-chair, Lake Forest, Midwest
Rod Sandberg, co-chair, Whitworth, Northwest
Jay Anderson, Buena Vista, Iowa Intercollegiate
Glen Caruso, St. Thomas (MN), Minnesota Intercol.
Damon Tomeo, Knox, Midwest
Chris Casey, George Fox, Northwest
Jaime Hoffman, Occidental, SCIAC
Clayt Birmingham, Wisconsin-Stout, Wisconsin Intercollegiate
John Auer, Crown Upper, Midwest

Two Midwest and one UMAC rep makes me wonder if this is why Northwestern is getting ranked. Lesser conferences sticking up for one another?

T9. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1  .429 SOS  >> They've already clinched their Pool A. But it could affect seeding and matchups. There's just no signature win on that schedule. I don't think we've ever seen a UMAC team ranked unless they were unbeaten. My assumption is that they'll still be Rd 1 canon fodder for UST, but it's surprising none the less.

Please let me see if I follow your line of reasoning.

Northwestern's presence in the Regional Rankings keeps a WIAC or MIAC school out of the rankings, therefore impacting the portfolio of another team in region.

Thank you.

[HansenRatings]

WEST REGION
James Catanzaro, co-chair, Lake Forest, Midwest
Rod Sandberg, co-chair, Whitworth, Northwest
Jay Anderson, Buena Vista, Iowa Intercollegiate
Glen Caruso, St. Thomas (MN), Minnesota Intercol.
Damon Tomeo, Knox, Midwest
Chris Casey, George Fox, Northwest
Jaime Hoffman, Occidental, SCIAC
Clayt Birmingham, Wisconsin-Stout, Wisconsin Intercollegiate
John Auer, Crown Upper, Midwest

Two Midwest and one UMAC rep makes me wonder if this is why Northwestern is getting ranked. Lesser conferences sticking up for one another?

T9. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1  .429 SOS  >> They've already clinched their Pool A. But it could affect seeding and matchups. There's just no signature win on that schedule. I don't think we've ever seen a UMAC team ranked unless they were unbeaten. My assumption is that they'll still be Rd 1 canon fodder for UST, but it's surprising none the less.

Please let me see if I follow your line of reasoning.

Northwestern's presence in the Regional Rankings keeps a WIAC or MIAC school out of the rankings, therefore impacting the portfolio of another team in region.

Thank you.

You can read it how you want, but I tend to agree with Hazzben. The UMAC hardly ever has a regionally-ranked team, and they may be the single worst conference in the country. Northwestern has lost a game, and has a miserable SOS (especially considering they're in a 10-team conference, and conferences of that size tend to have SOS numbers clustered close to 0.500 because it's nearly a closed loop). I would think that the second-best team from the IIAC (Central/Dubuque?), or Redlands (or even Pomona-Pitzer) belongs in the rankings much more than a one-loss team from the UMAC.

[ExTartanPlayer]

WEST REGION
James Catanzaro, co-chair, Lake Forest, Midwest
Rod Sandberg, co-chair, Whitworth, Northwest
Jay Anderson, Buena Vista, Iowa Intercollegiate
Glen Caruso, St. Thomas (MN), Minnesota Intercol.
Damon Tomeo, Knox, Midwest
Chris Casey, George Fox, Northwest
Jaime Hoffman, Occidental, SCIAC
Clayt Birmingham, Wisconsin-Stout, Wisconsin Intercollegiate
John Auer, Crown Upper, Midwest

Two Midwest and one UMAC rep makes me wonder if this is why Northwestern is getting ranked. Lesser conferences sticking up for one another?

T9. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1  .429 SOS  >> They've already clinched their Pool A. But it could affect seeding and matchups. There's just no signature win on that schedule. I don't think we've ever seen a UMAC team ranked unless they were unbeaten. My assumption is that they'll still be Rd 1 canon fodder for UST, but it's surprising none the less.

Please let me see if I follow your line of reasoning.

Northwestern's presence in the Regional Rankings keeps a WIAC or MIAC school out of the rankings, therefore impacting the portfolio of another team in region.

Thank you.

You can read it how you want, but I tend to agree with Hazzben. The UMAC hardly ever has a regionally-ranked team, and they may be the single worst conference in the country. Northwestern has lost a game, and has a miserable SOS (especially considering they're in a 10-team conference, and conferences of that size tend to have SOS numbers clustered close to 0.500 because it's nearly a closed loop). I would think that the second-best team from the IIAC (Central/Dubuque?), or Redlands (or even Pomona-Pitzer) belongs in the rankings much more than a one-loss team from the UMAC.

Yeah, even as an avid little-guy cheerleader, Northwestern being ranked seems pretty egregious.  As you mention the UMAC is nearly a closed-loop but the OOC results we do have are not favorable (to wit, the same MacMurray team that dealt Northwestern a 38-14 loss barely scraped by with a 27-21 win over a Rockford team that's 1-8, 0-5 in one of the other least-good-conferences-in-the-country).  Northwestern's 14-0 win over Augsburg is nice (any win for a UMAC team over an MIAC team is nice) but Auggie is 2-6 in the league with lopsided losses to even the middle-of-the-pack teams.  Even with the acknowledgement that this is about the criteria rather than qualitative judgements...a one-loss team with a terrible SOS, zero regionally-ranked results and a 24-point loss vs. nobody's idea of a powerhouse seems like a curious choice.

[wally_wabash]

Updated tables with lots of new eliminations this week.  Many from teams clinching Pool A bids, thus taking them out of Pool B/C, and many more that picked up a third loss or sort of had their fate crystallize with last week's regional rankings. 





Per request, I've illuminated the Pool A teams in the gold cells.  Many of them are new, but lack the white text (the contrast wasn't great for reading, so I skipped that part).  You guys can check Saturday's wrap ups if you're particularly interested in which of those teams clinched last week (all but Coe).  The other eliminations, with comments where appropriate:

Carthage
Denison - Denison may stay ranked this week and next, but at this point it's difficult to see them being ahead of John Carroll, Wabash, or Franklin (let alone DePauw, which I'll talk about in a separate post).  That's just too deep on the North bench to get a bid. 
Wittenberg - Is in a win or out situation.  Beat Allegheny and they'll be the NCAC AQ.  Lose to Allegheny in week 11 and you've got no shot.  That's way too harsh a loss to take hours before selections are made. 
Central - Both of the IIAC teams here were left out of the West's regional rankings.  One may slide in if C-M loses, but you can't see them jumping Platteville, which is where I see the West region cut line at this year.
Dubuque
Whitworth - Same deal as the IIACs.  One loss Whitworth squeaked in last year.  Two loss Whitworth will most certainly not. 
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps - The SCIACs here also get burned by being in a  deep West region.  Both were out of the rankings, both have no realistic path to the the tournament. 
Pomona-Pitzer
ETBU - ETBU was at the bottom of the South rankings last week and took a large margin loss.  Coupled with the large margin loss to UMHB earlier, and ETBU is going to fall out and that'll be that. 
Franklin & Marshall
Shenandoah
Washington & Jefferson - The Presidents lost to Thomas More, they don't get a shot at CWRU, and they were unranked in the first regional rankings.  Again, there's no reasonable path here for W&J to get invited- just too many teams ahead of them at this point. 
Westminster
Hendrix
Huntingdon - The USACs are now a one bid league.  Like Wittenberg, Huntingdon can not afford a week 11 loss.  A win and they are the conference AQ.  Maryville will fall out of the rankings and there's not room for them to get high enough for a bid. 
Maryville
Utica
Hobart - Hobart is in a win or out situation, same as Witt and Huntingdon. 
Salve Regina

[wally_wabash]

Ok so something that popped up in my head as I went through this this week is that I wiped out pretty much any 2-loss team that didn't appear in the first set of regional rankings.  It would be interesting to see if any team in the last 4-5 seasons made the tournament as an at-large without having been included in the first set of regional rankings.  The scarcity of at-large bids makes me think it's not really possible without full blown carnage in an entire region in the last two weeks of the season.  It's just hard to see instances where something like 3-5 teams ahead of an unranked team all lose and create that kind of huge rise in the rankings.  Maybe a research project for later. 

Ok, so DePauw.  ExTartanPlayer, who gives me first draft feedback on these tables, talked me into pulling DePauw back from the red.  DePauw with a win against Wabash might be able to end with 2 RROs, depending on whether or not the North region would rank four NCAC teams (unlikely, I know, but if there's a year for that kind of thing to happen it's this year).  In any case, they would have wins over Wabash and Denison in the last three weeks of the season.  If they are impressive enough in a (very, very, very hypothetical) win against Wabash, maybe they can get enough juice to jump over Franklin.  And then depending on what kind of margin we see from Mount Union and John Carroll, maybe just maybe DePauw could jump all the way up behind Wheaton as the region's second at-large team.  That's a lot of what ifs and maybes there, I know, but particularly in the North region, I think the order of at-larges beyond Wheaton is really, really fluid.  So DePauw gets to stay this week in what I must say is an incredible display of objectivity here on Monon Bell week.   

[smedindy]

Wally, I don't think I'd have the stones to do what you just did regarding DPU. I mean...if DPU gets a pool "C" I buy Zima for the board!