Pool C in 2016

[CruGuy]

Linfield has a long history of being not a top 10 team but a top 5 team and there is a difference in D-3. They probably have the best quarterback in D3 right now and I'm not sure who else is in the discussion. They entered the game against UMHB as the consensus #3 in the nation and apart from the UMHB game, none of their other contests really look much different from last year when they were the number three team in the nation (apart from 'struggling' a little bit more at Whitworth, vs when they hosted them last year). I don't think there's more than 10 teams in D3 that could even win a game vs Linfield. 

And having watched both HSU and Linfield play the same team on the same field, I don't know how anyone can argue that Linfield is better than HSU this year. When you ask 'are we really sure that HSU is all that good?', I'm just going to assume you haven't watched the team play.

I get the stereotype of a Texas person claiming everything is better in Texas. But any ASC team that has gotten the chance to play a non-Texas, non-top 5 team in the playoffs has run circles around them. The ASC has speed on the field that isn't present elsewhere in D3 (while the WIAC, UMU, and Linfield have size on the field that the rest of us can't compete with.) The body of evidence most certainly bears this out.

With any model, the biggest discrepancies are going to be in the tails. Measuring the talent of UMU, UWW, UMHB, and teams like Linfield against the rest of D3 is certainly working in the tails. I appreciate you disclosing those figures and they help me see clearly how I differ. I couldn't give any of those teams in the middle more than a 25% chance against Linfield. For the record Sam Riddle has lost @UWW, @ StT, @UMHB, and a 3point game vs Willamette as a sophomore. I think most of the posters around here would probably agree with me on this.

I then would not give any of those teams more than a 25% chance against HSU. I know most posters around here will not agree with me on this. Those inputs would give UMHB something like a ~5% SOR and to me that passes the smell test.

For what it's worth ETBU has always had athletes, and has almost never had consistency, discipline, or quality coaching. If this new young coach commits to the program and stays around a few years, I could easily see them running the table in the ASC in a year or two.

[wally_wabash]

Be careful with one game samples.

[USee]

Linfield has a long history of being not a top 10 team but a top 5 team and there is a difference in D-3. They probably have the best quarterback in D3 right now and I'm not sure who else is in the discussion. They entered the game against UMHB as the consensus #3 in the nation and apart from the UMHB game, none of their other contests really look much different from last year when they were the number three team in the nation (apart from 'struggling' a little bit more at Whitworth, vs when they hosted them last year). I don't think there's more than 10 teams in D3 that could even win a game vs Linfield. 

There are some pretty good QB's having some great years. No disrespect to Sam Riddle, who is awesome, but there are a few guys "in the discussion" depending on how you define it. From and individual performance perspective there are some eye popping performances from guys like Tanner Matlick, Chase Burton, and Ian Kolste to name a few. But if you want wins and rankings along with performance Broc Rutter from #6 North Central is a Freshman QB and his  numbers stand toe to toe with Sam Riddle's.

Sam Riddle:
156-234 (66.7%) 29 TD's, 9 INTs, 2,347 yds, 293 yds per game, 184.12 efficiency rating. 7-1 ranked #7

Broc Rutter
167-248 (67.3) 30 TD's, 4 INTs, 2,365 yds, 262 yds per game, 184.14 efficiency rating. 9-0 ranked #6

[Ralph Turner]

That number for UMHB's schedule doesn't pass the smell test. Wheaton or John Carroll is undefeated vs Linfield, HSU, ETBU & others >20% of the time?

Fair point on Linfield, but are we really sure that HSU and (especially) ETBU are all that good?  ETBU had no recent history of success until they went 7-3 last year, including three blowout losses (49-22 vs. 4-6 McMurry, 55-27 vs. 8-2 Texas Lutheran, and 67-20 vs. UMHB).  The only really impressive notch on their belt was a 27-21 home win against Hardin-Simmons team that was one week removed from the program's biggest win in over a decade (beating UMHB).  ETBU has followed that up with a 7-2 season that, again, includes 30+ point losses against UMHB and HSU.

I know you Texans think that everyone down there would beat everyone else up here if only they would get rid of the Texas sub-bracket in the playoffs, but I'm not sure the body of evidence we do have really supports that. 

ETBU and HSU are good teams, sure, especially HSU.  But let's not pretend that UMHB ran some gauntlet of three top-10 teams.  They have one outstanding win (Linfield), one very good win (HSU) and then the win over ETBU is probably about the same as any generic top-10-team-beats-another-pretty-good-team win, like Whitewater beating UW-Stevens Point maybe.

Thanks for the post ExTP.

IMHO, the upper echelon over the last decade as has been UWW and UMU followed closely by the second tier.

The teams that I have seen in the playoffs in the second tier have been UMHB, Wesley, and Linfield.

I have reviewed the playoffs for UMHB (who has been the survivor of the Texas Sub-bracket against HSU, McMurry, Louisiana College, Trinity and Texas Lutheran in various years).  Here is my evidence that the ball in the ASC is just overwhelmingly that much better (until you get to our "nemeses", UMU, UWW, Linfield and Wesley).  Here are the playoff games not involving the Texas Sub-bracket or the "nemeses" since 2007 (Year Round Team and score).

2015     2   Huntingdon  43-23
2013     1   Redlands     35-7
            2   Rowan         59-8
            3   St John Fisher  45-23
2012     2   Franklin          63-17
2011     1   Redlands        34-13
2010     1   CNU               59-7
            2   Thomas More   69-7
2009     1   at Central       42-40
2008     3   Wash & Jeff     63-7
2007     2   NCWC             64-0

[HansenRatings]

Ralph, what were UMHB's scores against their peers in (& around) Texas those years? Most of those scores seem pretty standard for UMHB even against the ASC runner-up/SCAC champ most years.

[ITH radio]

Linfield has a long history of being not a top 10 team but a top 5 team and there is a difference in D-3. They probably have the best quarterback in D3 right now and I'm not sure who else is in the discussion. They entered the game against UMHB as the consensus #3 in the nation and apart from the UMHB game, none of their other contests really look much different from last year when they were the number three team in the nation (apart from 'struggling' a little bit more at Whitworth, vs when they hosted them last year). I don't think there's more than 10 teams in D3 that could even win a game vs Linfield. 

There are some pretty good QB's having some great years. No disrespect to Sam Riddle, who is awesome, but there are a few guys "in the discussion" depending on how you define it. From and individual performance perspective there are some eye popping performances from guys like Tanner Matlick, Chase Burton, and Ian Kolste to name a few. But if you want wins and rankings along with performance Broc Rutter from #6 North Central is a Freshman QB and his  numbers stand toe to toe with Sam Riddle's.

Sam Riddle:
156-234 (66.7%) 29 TD's, 9 INTs, 2,347 yds, 293 yds per game, 184.12 efficiency rating. 7-1 ranked #7

Broc Rutter
167-248 (67.3) 30 TD's, 4 INTs, 2,365 yds, 262 yds per game, 184.14 efficiency rating. 9-0 ranked #6

Hobart's Shane Sweeney is having a nice year:

220-361 (60.9%), 30 TDs, 4 INTs, 2,889 yds, 321 YPG, 153.4 efficiency

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph, what were UMHB's scores against their peers in (& around) Texas those years? Most of those scores seem pretty standard for UMHB even against the ASC runner-up/SCAC champ most years.

I will get those to you tonight.  Thanks.

[wally_wabash]

Super important rankings today for several teams. In these second set of rankings, we usually see some shuffling that provides better indication regarding a lot of pending if/then situations.  Placement today for teams like Platteville and Concordia-Moorhead, Wabash/Franklin/John Carroll, Frostburg/St Lawrence/SJF are going to be really informative

[CruGuy]

Linfield has a long history of being not a top 10 team but a top 5 team and there is a difference in D-3. They probably have the best quarterback in D3 right now and I'm not sure who else is in the discussion. They entered the game against UMHB as the consensus #3 in the nation and apart from the UMHB game, none of their other contests really look much different from last year when they were the number three team in the nation (apart from 'struggling' a little bit more at Whitworth, vs when they hosted them last year). I don't think there's more than 10 teams in D3 that could even win a game vs Linfield. 

There are some pretty good QB's having some great years. No disrespect to Sam Riddle, who is awesome, but there are a few guys "in the discussion" depending on how you define it. From and individual performance perspective there are some eye popping performances from guys like Tanner Matlick, Chase Burton, and Ian Kolste to name a few. But if you want wins and rankings along with performance Broc Rutter from #6 North Central is a Freshman QB and his  numbers stand toe to toe with Sam Riddle's.

Sam Riddle:
156-234 (66.7%) 29 TD's, 9 INTs, 2,347 yds, 293 yds per game, 184.12 efficiency rating. 7-1 ranked #7

Broc Rutter
167-248 (67.3) 30 TD's, 4 INTs, 2,365 yds, 262 yds per game, 184.14 efficiency rating. 9-0 ranked #6

There's a difference between a good QB having a great year and a great QB having a great career. At this point Riddle has a 33 game body of work against some of the top competition in the country and I don't think anyone currently playing has career numbers that compare. Broc certainly has the opportunity to produce a career that significantly dwarfs Riddle's. Let's allow him to play a few playoff games first.

[ITH radio]

Rankings are up. For ERR looks like E8 runner up will make it in.

[wally_wabash]

My quick thoughts on today's RRs:

East: ITH is right in seeing that the E8 runner up is going to be the top at large team in the region, which means they'll almost surely get in.  I've kind of been saying this about SJF for a couple of weeks in spite of some hand-wringing over a second loss.  But the way the East has played out, that has always seemed like the way this was going to go.  On deck in the East?  Looks like the Frostburg/Salisbury winner, which makes for an interesting conversation on Saturday night. 

North: Wabash got a huge boost this week jumping over Franklin.  I'm still not sure why John Carroll is ranked 4th in this region ahead of Olivet and Wittenberg (I know why, but it's a shame that they're willing to dismiss the criteria so blatantly).  Sets up some intrigue this weekend if Wabash continues to dominate DePauw and John Carroll loses to Mount Union- are those results enough to push Wabash into the on deck position here Saturday night?  Maybe.  Is it enough to get Wabash in?  Who knows.  I know you don't have a chance if you don't get to the table though, so this is a massive improvement.  It's not quite all roses for Wabash though- Denison drops out (a would-be RRO win for Wabash) and is replaced by IWU which frankly makes little sense.  I don't see it in the criteria why IWU needs to be ahead of Denison, but this was always a possibility this week. 

South: This is probably the cleanest region.  No big surprises here.  The intrigue comes with CWRU.  Win and in.  Lose and it's going to be interesting to see if they have enough support in the room to stay ranked ahead of Muhlenberg or perhaps even Berry should Berry win and not be the SAA AQ. 

West: The really interesting thing in this region this week is that they've put Concordia-Moorhead right in UW-Platteville's back pocket.  This really foreshadows a slingshot move here if C-M beats St. John's.  I think that result shoots the Cobbers into the on deck circle behind UW-Oshkosh in this region. 

[art76]

Regional Rankings are out, as reported by Frank - Absolutely no changes in the West. In the East, they just rearranged the pecking order. The North dropped Denison, put Illinois Wesleyan in #10 and shook up the order a bit. The South dropped Maryville and East Texas Baptist and added Huntingdon at #9 and Centre at #10. The South left the top 7 alone and simply moved Randolph-Macon up from #10 to #8 now. There doesn't seem too much, if any, swapping of any teams into Pool C from these changes using Wally's criteria from last week. But I'll await the official thought process and results along with the rest of you.

[USee]

Linfield has a long history of being not a top 10 team but a top 5 team and there is a difference in D-3. They probably have the best quarterback in D3 right now and I'm not sure who else is in the discussion. They entered the game against UMHB as the consensus #3 in the nation and apart from the UMHB game, none of their other contests really look much different from last year when they were the number three team in the nation (apart from 'struggling' a little bit more at Whitworth, vs when they hosted them last year). I don't think there's more than 10 teams in D3 that could even win a game vs Linfield. 

There are some pretty good QB's having some great years. No disrespect to Sam Riddle, who is awesome, but there are a few guys "in the discussion" depending on how you define it. From and individual performance perspective there are some eye popping performances from guys like Tanner Matlick, Chase Burton, and Ian Kolste to name a few. But if you want wins and rankings along with performance Broc Rutter from #6 North Central is a Freshman QB and his  numbers stand toe to toe with Sam Riddle's.

Sam Riddle:
156-234 (66.7%) 29 TD's, 9 INTs, 2,347 yds, 293 yds per game, 184.12 efficiency rating. 7-1 ranked #7

Broc Rutter
167-248 (67.3) 30 TD's, 4 INTs, 2,365 yds, 262 yds per game, 184.14 efficiency rating. 9-0 ranked #6

There's a difference between a good QB having a great year and a great QB having a great career. At this point Riddle has a 33 game body of work against some of the top competition in the country and I don't think anyone currently playing has career numbers that compare. Broc certainly has the opportunity to produce a career that significantly dwarfs Riddle's. Let's allow him to play a few playoff games first.

There is also a difference in saying "...They have the best QB in Division 3 right now...", with "Riddle has a 33 game body of work". I was responding to the first comment not the second. It's unquestioned Riddle has the best 33 game body of work of any QB in division 3 right now but that's not what I was initially responding to. Let's see who has the best post season and goes farther in the playoffs this year. Right now those two are neck and neck.

[ExTartanPlayer]

My quick thoughts on today's RRs:

East: ITH is right in seeing that the E8 runner up is going to be the top at large team in the region, which means they'll almost surely get in.  I've kind of been saying this about SJF for a couple of weeks in spite of some hand-wringing over a second loss.  But the way the East has played out, that has always seemed like the way this was going to go.  On deck in the East?  Looks like the Frostburg/Salisbury winner, which makes for an interesting conversation on Saturday night. 

North: Wabash got a huge boost this week jumping over Franklin.  I'm still not sure why John Carroll is ranked 4th in this region ahead of Olivet and Wittenberg (I know why, but it's a shame that they're willing to dismiss the criteria so blatantly).  Sets up some intrigue this weekend if Wabash continues to dominate DePauw and John Carroll loses to Mount Union- are those results enough to push Wabash into the on deck position here Saturday night?  Maybe.  Is it enough to get Wabash in?  Who knows.  I know you don't have a chance if you don't get to the table though, so this is a massive improvement.  It's not quite all roses for Wabash though- Denison drops out (a would-be RRO win for Wabash) and is replaced by IWU which frankly makes little sense.  I don't see it in the criteria why IWU needs to be ahead of Denison, but this was always a possibility this week. 

South: This is probably the cleanest region.  No big surprises here.  The intrigue comes with CWRU.  Win and in.  Lose and it's going to be interesting to see if they have enough support in the room to stay ranked ahead of Muhlenberg or perhaps even Berry should Berry win and not be the SAA AQ.

West: The really interesting thing in this region this week is that they've put Concordia-Moorhead right in UW-Platteville's back pocket.  This really foreshadows a slingshot move here if C-M beats St. John's.  I think that result shoots the Cobbers into the on deck circle behind UW-Oshkosh in this region.

Hard to imagine CWRU stays ranked above Muhlenberg or Berry with a loss vs. CMU.

I love my Tartans and think they're a pretty good team this year, but that's probably as bad a loss as any Pool C candidate will have, and it's a far inferior "result against RRO" to Muhlenberg's six-point loss to Johns Hopkins.  Unless there's a huge SoS gap between CWRU and Muhlenberg, I can't see them staying above Muhlenberg if they lose to CMU.

[Ralph Turner]

My Pool C bids as of today, and everyone else winning out. I think that the top Pool C's in each region come off 1st in each regon:

East:  Alfred/SJF loser:                                                                 Salisbury left on the table
South:  HSU comes off first; an undefeated CWRU comes off 5th     Muhlenberg left on the table
North: Wheaton off first;                                                              JCU losing respectfully to UMU at the table. (I don't think that they drop below Wabash)
West:  UWO off first;                                                                   Johnnies left on the table.

I think that JCU (0-2 versus Regionally Ranked teams) gets the last Pool C bid.