Pool C in 2016

[USee]

What happens if JCU pulls the upset this weekend? UMU goes into pool C but has horrible criteria but a decent reputation as a playoff team. Chaos reigns?

[wally_wabash]

What happens if JCU pulls the upset this weekend? UMU goes into pool C but has horrible criteria but a decent reputation as a playoff team. Chaos reigns?

No.  Mount Union goes in super early, probably before Wheaton and we all gnash teeth because Mount Union is basically getting a wave-through despite having terrible criteria. 

[ITH radio]

While I don't think it's in the handbook per se, we have heard in interviewing prior Committee Chairs the sort of past / prior year's playoff performance as a way in. MU would definitely qualify in that case (no way they are losing this wkd so I think the point is moot - yes I used the word moot)....

[smedindy]

While I don't think it's in the handbook per se, we have heard in interviewing prior Committee Chairs the sort of past / prior year's playoff performance as a way in. MU would definitely qualify in that case (no way they are losing this wkd so I think the point is moot - yes I used the word moot)....

[smedindy]

My Pool C bids as of today, and everyone else winning out. I think that the top Pool C's in each region come off 1st in each regon:

East:  Alfred/SJF loser:                                                                 Salisbury left on the table
South:  HSU comes off first; an undefeated CWRU comes off 5th     Muhlenberg left on the table
North: Wheaton off first;                                                              JCU losing respectfully to UMU at the table. (I don't think that they drop below Wabash)
West:  UWO off first;                                                                   Johnnies left on the table.

I think that JCU (0-2 versus Regionally Ranked teams) gets the last Pool C bid.

Interesting, if CWRU loses, and St. John's loses, (and JCU loses) then...

Alfred / SJF
HSU
Wheaton
UWO

On the table:

Salisbury
Muhlenberg
JCU or Wabash
Concordia - Moorhead

If it's JCU - do you take the one-loss teams over the two-loss teams, even though Salisbury's SOS will be high?
If it's Wabash - C-M, Muhlenberg and Wabash will have similar SOS, and then there's Salisbury with the high SOS.

Hmmm.....

[USee]

What happens if JCU pulls the upset this weekend? UMU goes into pool C but has horrible criteria but a decent reputation as a playoff team. Chaos reigns?

No.  Mount Union goes in super early, probably before Wheaton and we all gnash teeth because Mount Union is basically getting a wave-through despite having terrible criteria.

Does that scenario put Wheaton on the bubble and Wabash out?

[art76]

The order the respective picks are made help those teams sitting behind the first team from their respective regions. St. John's/Concordia-Moorhead is going to sit there the longest I suspect because Oshkosh is going to get picked first with their monster SOS. Who gets picked second after Oshkosh? That region stands the better chance of getting a second team in because of a teams setting there on the table for so long. I know it's not supposed to be "a thing" - but it happens.

[wally_wabash]

Alright, projection time.  Here we go:

Pool A:



Clinched teams in the gold cells, newly changed projections in blue text.  Some comments on some of the changes:
- Hobart moved in the LL driver's seat with a win at St. Lawrence
- Lakeland is now in control of the fluid NACC race
- Denison's loss cedes control of the NCAC to Wittenberg
- Wesley joins the win and in crowd with their big win at Salisbury
- Huntingdon, also won the SAA showdown with Maryville and is one win away from clinching
- The SAA is the interesting one.  I changed from WashU to Centre this week given that I think Centre is a slight favorite to beat Berry, which would give Centre the league championship.  Not really any at-large dominoes with that change as all of the SAA teams appear to be below the cut line. 

Pool B

1S Mary Hardin-Baylor: 9-0, 2-0 vs. RROs, 0.581 (14th) SOS

Nothing major to report here.  ETBU dropping out has cost the Crusaders a RRO win, which makes them a little less sexy for the top overall seed.  UW-Whitewater has a strong claim this week, even if poll voters punished them a bit for the UWRF game.  In any case, for Pool B, this is a slam dunk. 

Now after UMHB comes out for Pool B, the remaining regional boards look as follows:
East: SJF, Salisbury, Albright, Frostburg State, St. Lawrence
North: Wheaton, John Carroll, Wabash, Franklin, Illinois Wesleyan
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Muhlenberg, Berry
West: UW-Oshkosh, St. John's, UW-Platteville, Concordia-Moorhead

To the board!   

Pool C:
Round 1:
3N Wheaton - 8-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.551 (42)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.547 (46)
3E St. John Fisher - 8-1, 1-0 RRO, 0.563 (27)
3W UW-Oshkosh - 7-1, 2-1 RRO, 0.617 (1)

As with the first two projections, Oshkosh has overwhelming advantages here with SOS and RRO results and is the clear choice in the first round. 

Round 2:
3N Wheaton - 8-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.551 (42)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.547 (46)
3E St. John Fisher - 8-1, 1-0 RRO, 0.563 (27)
6W St. John's- 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115)

I'm sticking with SJF here, even though the RRO advantage they had over Wheaton last week is gone.  Illinois Wesleyan has been ranked by the North RAC this week, which gives Wheaton an RRO win.  SJF's RRO win is slightly better (5N vs. 10N...these results coming out of the same region is useful), so I'll continue to honor SJF here.  In addition to the RRO comparison, SJF also has a slight SOS edge. 

Round 3:
3N Wheaton - 8-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.551 (42)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.547 (46)
7E Salisbury - 7-2, 1-1 RRO, 0.533 (62)
6W St. John's- 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115)

So last week I took Wheaton here anticipating ETBU dropping out of and IWU coming in to the regional rankings.  That is exactly what happened.  There isn't enough SOS movement here to warrant a flip, so Wheaton is the choice. 

Round 4:
4N John Carroll - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.472 (173)
3S Hardin-Simmons - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.547 (46)
7E Salisbury - 7-2, 1-1 RRO, 0.533 (62)
6W St. John's- 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115)

Hardin-Simmons has a significant SOS advantage over John Carroll (who is also probably losing this week) and St. John's.  The SOS is similar-ish to Salisbury, but Salisbury has an extra loss, to an unranked team no less, so they aren't super attractive at this point.  The Cowboys are also the last team remaining from the original group of four C candidates, so ballot inertia.  Cowboys go in. 

Round 5:
4N John Carroll - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.472 (173)
4S Case Western Reserve - 9-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.475 (169)
7E Salisbury - 7-2, 1-1 RRO, 0.533 (62)
6W St. John's- 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115)

I'm flipping the order at the end here this week.  As the prospect of a 10-0 CWRU is one step closer, I think they go in automatically.  Who isn't voting for a 10-0 team?  There also remains the possibility that WashU winds up ranked (Centre or Berry has to lose and make a space for somebody).  We also shouldn't discount the possibility of undefeated CWRU winding up ranked higher than Hardin-Simmons...which is interesting to think about.  That could have domino potential.  Maybe something to talk about Saturday night. 

Round 6:
4N John Carroll - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.472 (173)
6S Muhlenberg - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.481 (160)
7E Salisbury - 7-2, 1-1 RRO, 0.533 (62)
6W St. John's- 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115)

And back to the St. John's situation.  This is not a good profile, gang.  This is a Muhlenberg profile.  Salisbury is maybe better, to be honest, especially with a win over Frostburg.  But St. John's at 9-1 is playing in the tournament without question. 

And after all of that, I've got the same six teams as last week, in basically the same order. 

I think the way this thing shakes up this weekend is if we see the following:
-CWRU gets ranked ahead of H-SU
- John Carroll gets jumped by Wabash OR Franklin jumps Wabash and John Carroll
- C-M beats St. John's
- Alfred beats SJF

I'm not sure there's a whole lot else out there that is going to move this around much. 

[wally_wabash]

What happens if JCU pulls the upset this weekend? UMU goes into pool C but has horrible criteria but a decent reputation as a playoff team. Chaos reigns?

No.  Mount Union goes in super early, probably before Wheaton and we all gnash teeth because Mount Union is basically getting a wave-through despite having terrible criteria.

Does that scenario put Wheaton on the bubble and Wabash out?

It pushes Wheaton a little further down in the pecking order, but honestly if the IWU ranking sticks this weekend, I don't think Wheaton is under much stress.  The teams they're getting grouped with don't compare favorably to the Thunder.   

[USee]

Wheaton will finish with around a .525-.532 SOS. If JCU wins and gets the AQ, then Where does Mt union go? And that result also potentially gets Wabash to the table in the late rounds?

[wally_wabash]

Wheaton will finish with around a .525-.532 SOS. If JCU wins and gets the AQ, then Where does Mt union go? And that result also potentially gets Wabash to the table in the late rounds?

I'm doing weird things with these posts...thought I could sneak in an edit before you responded.  Edit retracted and placed here:


Addendum- I think Mount Union moving into Pool C puts crazy stress on St. John's.  Now, if for some reason that I don't see, St. John's is getting support over Wheaton (there is NO criteria argument for that to happen), then Wheaton could get bubbled out.  Which would be a shame because, frankly, in that scenario, it's probably Mount Union that should be out.  If we're playing this strictly by the criteria.

Now, as for how John Carroll winning the OAC dominos down to Wabash, it keeps Wabash totally out.  Wabash is super fringe right now, even if everything kind of breaks their way.  Wabash has to have John Carroll (the bigger, the better frankly) and then hope that the North RAC would be compelled to put the Streaks behind Wabash, something I'm not convinced of given that they've stubbornly held them at 4N despite having all kinds of criteria disadvantages to the two teams ranked directly behind them.  The North RAC loves them John Carroll and I don't get it. 

[USee]

Interestingly enough, Wheaton alum and former defensive coordinator Rod Sandberg, HC at Withworth, is on the national committee and co-chair of the west. If it comes down to St Johns and Wheaton, I hope he steps up!

And I was thinking of a scenario where Mt Union is a pool C and, because of reputation, they go in round 2 right after UWO. Then Wheaton gets in for round 5 per criteria and Wabash surfaces. But your scenario of JCU getting pummeled by the Purple Raiders and Wabash moving ahead in the RAC, bringing them to the table in round 3 is more plausible and better for the LG's

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph, what were UMHB's scores against their peers in (& around) Texas those years? Most of those scores seem pretty standard for UMHB even against the ASC runner-up/SCAC champ most years.

Thanks Hansen. I have given you pertinent regular season games to provide perspective of the Texas Sub-bracket.

Thanks for the post ExTP.

IMHO, the upper echelon over the last decade as has been UWW and UMU followed closely by the second tier.

The teams that I have seen in the playoffs in the second tier have been UMHB, Wesley, and Linfield.

I have reviewed the playoffs for UMHB (who has been the survivor of the Texas Sub-bracket against HSU, McMurry, Louisiana College, Trinity and Texas Lutheran in various years).  Here is my evidence that the ball in the ASC is just overwhelmingly that much better (until you get to our "nemeses", UMU, UWW, Linfield and Wesley).  Here are the playoff games not involving the Texas Sub-bracket or the "nemeses" since 2007 (Year Round Team and score).

2015     2   Huntingdon  43-23 [Lost at HSU 26-29 in Week 9; won at  H-SU 37-19 in Round 1].
2013     1   Redlands     35-7     [10-0 regular season; Beat LaCollege (7-3) 45-34]
            2   Rowan         59-8
            3   St John Fisher  45-23
2012     2   Franklin          63-17  [10-0 regular season; won at LaCollege 30-3; beat H-SU 45-32] Beat LaCollege 59-20 in round 1; beat Wesley in Round 3 32-20
2011     1   Redlands        34-13 [10-0 Regular season; beat McMurry 28-27 in week 2; McMurry & their #2 QB won at Trinity 25-16 in round 1; McMurry lost with a hobbled #1 QB in round 2 49-20]
2010     1   CNU               59-7 [10-0 in regular season; beat McMurry 43-31; HSU 42-28; at LaCollege 42-38; MissCollege 41-31; at ETBU 34-28]
            2   Thomas More   69-7
2009     1   at Central       42-40 [Pool C; Won at HSU 23-7; Lost at Miss College 17-14; MissColl beat Huntingdon and lost to Wesley]
2008     3   Wash & Jeff     63-7 [9-1 in regular season; Beat HSU 20-18; Beat Miss College 26-14. Beat HSU in round 1 38-35; beat Wesley 46-14 in round 2]
2007     2   NCWC             64-0  [Romped thru ASC; Beat Trinity 52-23 in Round 1.]

[wally_wabash]

Interestingly enough, Wheaton alum and former defensive coordinator Rod Sandberg, HC at Withworth, is on the national committee and co-chair of the west. If it comes down to St Johns and Wheaton, I hope he steps up!

And I was thinking of a scenario where Mt Union is a pool C and, because of reputation, they go in round 2 right after UWO. Then Wheaton gets in for round 5 per criteria and Wabash surfaces. But your scenario of JCU getting pummeled by the Purple Raiders and Wabash moving ahead in the RAC, bringing them to the table in round 3 is more plausible and better for the LG's

I think Wabash's only realistic path right now is to get ahead of John Carroll (Wabash has to get in early and then hopefully accumulate support) and then one of the two following things: CWRU loses or St. John's loses.  It's difficult to see Wabash getting in unless one of those two teams takes themselves out. 

[AUKaz00]

The E8 runner up coming off the board second is more likely if Alfred finds themselves in Pool C purgatory rather than a 2 loss Fisher. I know these projections are done with an "if the season ended today" (on a Wednesday?!?) caveat, but I wonder which round Fisher would actually get selected if they are in the at large pool.