Pool C in 2016

[wally_wabash]

Should be interesting to see what comes out on Weds. My guess for ER would be something like this:

1. Alfred (highest SOS of 8-0 teams, arguably best conf, etc)
2. Stevenson 8-0 (better SOS than SLU)
3. SLU 8-0 (could see them lower bc of bad SOS but usually comm rewards 8-0 league leaders from the "top 4"
4. SJFC 7-1 (best SOS of 1 loss ER teams)
5. Hobart 7-1 (bc of high SOS)
6. Salisbury 7-1
7. Frostburg 7-1 (w. solid SOS of 115)
8. WNE 8-0 (maybe crazy bc of low SOS but have seen undefeated teams from NE get in Wk 10)
9. Salve 8-0 (see above)
10. Husson 6-1 (low SOS but only 7 point loss to #1 ALF gets them on board IMO)

Ironically only really two teams on this list has a Pool C shot (SLU, if the lose to HOB and beat WPI in Wk 11 to go 9-1 and ALF if they lose to SJF and end up 9-1 - even in that scenario, I could see SLU being left out bc of SOS).

I think Alfred is in really good at-large shape as long as they don't lose twice. 

The possibility of Stevenson and/or St. Lawrence falling in to Pool C could really muddy the waters here.  If those two hang in there though, I think there's a really good chance that a 2-loss team from the East region gets strong consideration for an invitation.  SJF is most likely.  Salisbury and Frostburg are also possibilities there. 

If there is going to be a 2-loss at-large team, I think it's coming from this region. 

[RtSLl3100]

I think Alfred is in really good at-large shape as long as they don't lose twice. 

The possibility of Stevenson and/or St. Lawrence falling in to Pool C could really muddy the waters here.  If those two hang in there though, I think there's a really good chance that a 2-loss team from the East region gets strong consideration for an invitation.  SJF is most likely.  Salisbury and Frostburg are also possibilities there. 

If there is going to be a 2-loss at-large team, I think it's coming from this region.

You would think if a two loss team makes it they would be from the east, over a potential 2 loss John Carroll or a 2 loss UW-P?

[wally_wabash]

You would think if a two loss team makes it they would be from the east, over a potential 2 loss John Carroll or a 2 loss UW-P?

Yes. 

[HansenRatings]

Should be interesting to see what comes out on Weds. My guess for ER would be something like this:

1. Alfred (highest SOS of 8-0 teams, arguably best conf, etc)
2. Stevenson 8-0 (better SOS than SLU)
3. SLU 8-0 (could see them lower bc of bad SOS but usually comm rewards 8-0 league leaders from the "top 4"
4. SJFC 7-1 (best SOS of 1 loss ER teams)
5. Hobart 7-1 (bc of high SOS)
6. Salisbury 7-1
7. Frostburg 7-1 (w. solid SOS of 115)
8. WNE 8-0 (maybe crazy bc of low SOS but have seen undefeated teams from NE get in Wk 10)
9. Salve 8-0 (see above)
10. Husson 6-1 (low SOS but only 7 point loss to #1 ALF gets them on board IMO)

Ironically only really two teams on this list has a Pool C shot (SLU, if the lose to HOB and beat WPI in Wk 11 to go 9-1 and ALF if they lose to SJF and end up 9-1 - even in that scenario, I could see SLU being left out bc of SOS).

I think Alfred is in really good at-large shape as long as they don't lose twice. 

The possibility of Stevenson and/or St. Lawrence falling in to Pool C could really muddy the waters here.  If those two hang in there though, I think there's a really good chance that a 2-loss team from the East region gets strong consideration for an invitation.  SJF is most likely.  Salisbury and Frostburg are also possibilities there. 

If there is going to be a 2-loss at-large team, I think it's coming from this region.

Absolutely agree, and it's probably going to be Fisher (again).

Here's the teams from each region I think are most likely to get an at-large bid if they don't get in through Pool A

East:
Alfred (67.17%)
SJFU (49.09%)
SLU (32.26%)
Utica (12.43%)
Frostburg (7.91%)
WNE (5.77%)
Salisbury (2.20%)
Hobart (1.02%)

If Utica wins out, they're going to have some very impressive "good wins" against Alfred and Fisher. If Fisher doesn't win against Alfred, I think they probably need Alfred to win against Utica this week. The E8 runner-up, whoever it is, will have about a 2-in-3 chance of getting in.

North:
Wheaton (87.96%)
Mount Union (83.89%, and probably WAY too low)
North Central (45.00%)
John Carroll (35.88%)
Wittenberg (31.56%)
Wabash (21.91%)
IWU (6.75%)
Carthage (3.28%)
Franklin (1.67%)

Here you can kinda see how my model is estimating the regional rankings. A 1-loss NCAC runner-up is assumed to be ranked below a 2-loss John Carroll.

South:
Case Western (66.28%)
Muhlenberg (55.68%)
Thomas More (48.21%)
Hardin-Simmons (19.87%)
ETBU (7.89%)
Berry (7.21%)
JHU (4.55%)

Case has about a 1-in-3 chance of winning out, which is assumed a lock for Pool C, so their odds with only 1-loss is about 50-50. I would have to assume they would be better off beating Westminster than CMU. The HSU-ETBU winner is probably hurt in my model because they'll have a lower winning percentage than any other 1-loss team (which only matters about 1/3 as much as only having 1 loss, but looking at previous seasons, it does matter).

West:
UW-Oshkosh (86.44%)
UW-Whitewater (75.00%, and also low; 0.03/0.04 = 0.75)
St. John's (65.13%)
Concordia-M'head (16.04%)
Central (8.63%)
Monmouth (8.09%)
Dubuque (5.26%)
UW-Platteville (3.87%)

Surprised to see Platteville on here at all, because of the assumptions I made. They probably need UWO to tank to get in. Moorhead would only have a 1-in-6 chance of getting in if they win out, and if Monmouth loses, they won't have a win against a RRO, which would hurt their chances as a 1-loss Pool C team.

[art76]

I think Alfred is in really good at-large shape as long as they don't lose twice. 

The possibility of Stevenson and/or St. Lawrence falling in to Pool C could really muddy the waters here.  If those two hang in there though, I think there's a really good chance that a 2-loss team from the East region gets strong consideration for an invitation.  SJF is most likely.  Salisbury and Frostburg are also possibilities there. 

If there is going to be a 2-loss at-large team, I think it's coming from this region.

You would think if a two loss team makes it they would be from the east, over a potential 2 loss John Carroll or a 2 loss UW-P?

I don't have the SOS info in front of me, but others have already mentioned on these boards this year that John Carrol could have the "best two losses" to top 5 teams in the country, which helps them a ton. UW-P has the "next best" two losses. Using that criteria. I just don't see how any two loss team from the East stacks up against them - so I disagree that the likelihood of a two loss team making it to Pool C comes from the East.

And, welcome aboard!

[HansenRatings]

The reason I see a 2-loss East team getting in before a 2-loss team from any other region is because in the East, they're more likely to be the highest regionally-ranked team eligible for Pool C. In the North or West, they're going to be the second or third team on the board.

[wally_wabash]

The reason I see a 2-loss East team getting in before a 2-loss team from any other region is because in the East, they're more likely to be the highest regionally-ranked team eligible for Pool C. In the North or West, they're going to be the second or third team on the board.

This is exactly right.  Why SJF instead of UWP?  Because we're not choosing between SJF and UWP directly.  We're more likely to be choosing from something like SJF/HSU/St. John's/Wabash.  Being at the front of the line in your region is a big deal. 

Last year UWP would/should have graded out better than the last 2-3 teams that got in the field, but UWP got slotted behind Whitworth in their own region and never got a shot to have their criteria compared to the other teams that were selected.  Same thing could happen to the Pioneers this year. 

[art76]

The reason I see a 2-loss East team getting in before a 2-loss team from any other region is because in the East, they're more likely to be the highest regionally-ranked team eligible for Pool C. In the North or West, they're going to be the second or third team on the board.

It's my understanding that the committee takes the next best team in successive rounds - so a two loss team from the East might sit there and never get picked, at least until another two loss team from another region shows up on the board, and then it won't be apples to apples with those "quality" losses.

[HansenRatings]

The reason I see a 2-loss East team getting in before a 2-loss team from any other region is because in the East, they're more likely to be the highest regionally-ranked team eligible for Pool C. In the North or West, they're going to be the second or third team on the board.

It's my understanding that the committee takes the next best team in successive rounds - so a two loss team from the East might sit there and never get picked, at least until another two loss team from another region shows up on the board, and then it won't be apples to apples with those "quality" losses.

Correct, but the committee has never not taken at least one team from each region, other than 2007, when the South had 2 more auto-bids and also got 2 teams in through Pool B.

[art76]

The reason I see a 2-loss East team getting in before a 2-loss team from any other region is because in the East, they're more likely to be the highest regionally-ranked team eligible for Pool C. In the North or West, they're going to be the second or third team on the board.

This is exactly right.  Why SJF instead of UWP?  Because we're not choosing between SJF and UWP directly.  We're more likely to be choosing from something like SJF/HSU/St. John's/Wabash.  Being at the front of the line in your region is a big deal. 

Last year UWP would/should have graded out better than the last 2-3 teams that got in the field, but UWP got slotted behind Whitworth in their own region and never got a shot to have their criteria compared to the other teams that were selected.  Same thing could happen to the Pioneers this year.

Wally (and others),

Perhaps I am being too objective in my understanding of the selection process - or at least not understanding some of the nuances. From this comment should I assume (and we all know what that means) that a regional ranking takes precedent over a strong resume? If I am hiring a person and I have to decide between their resume and another candidate on the recommendation of a colleague, which should I choose?

[emma17]

The reason I see a 2-loss East team getting in before a 2-loss team from any other region is because in the East, they're more likely to be the highest regionally-ranked team eligible for Pool C. In the North or West, they're going to be the second or third team on the board.

It's my understanding that the committee takes the next best team in successive rounds - so a two loss team from the East might sit there and never get picked, at least until another two loss team from another region shows up on the board, and then it won't be apples to apples with those "quality" losses.

Art,
It helps me to think of it as the great Pez Dispenser method of selecting teams.  We may all agree that blue is the best color, and the West Dispenser may be loaded with blues, but unfortunately, every Pez Dispenser gets to contribute one to the pot, even if they are oranges and yellows. 

[HansenRatings]

The National Committee is given recommendations from the Regional Committees, and unless they strongly disagree with how the regions rank their teams, they will evaluate one team from each region against each other. So UWP could have a better resume than a team ahead of them in the regional ranking, but wouldn't be eligible for Pool C consideration until that team was in the tournament.

With that said, it's also extremely unlikely that a team that finished third in their conference outright (no wins over a team that finished ahead of them) gets into the tournament. In two separate instances over the last few years, the committee has said that they will not take a third-place team from a conference.

In 2012, I know a certain head coach for a team that finished 8-2 (5-2), and tied for second in their conference, but the team they tied with beat them and finished 7-3 (5-2), and the chair of the national committee told him they couldn't take a 3rd place team from a conference (if you catch my drift)

[art76]

The National Committee is given recommendations from the Regional Committees, and unless they strongly disagree with how the regions rank their teams, they will evaluate one team from each region against each other. So UWP could have a better resume than a team ahead of them in the regional ranking, but wouldn't be eligible for Pool C consideration until that team was in the tournament.

With that said, it's also extremely unlikely that a team that finished third in their conference outright (no wins over a team that finished ahead of them) gets into the tournament. In two separate instances over the last few years, the committee has said that they will not take a third-place team from a conference.

In 2012, I know a certain head coach for a team that finished 8-2 (5-2), and tied for second in their conference, but the team they tied with beat them and finished 7-3 (5-2), and the chair of the national committee told him they couldn't take a 3rd place team from a conference (if you catch my drift)

Doesn't look good for Platteville fans.

[wally_wabash]

The reason I see a 2-loss East team getting in before a 2-loss team from any other region is because in the East, they're more likely to be the highest regionally-ranked team eligible for Pool C. In the North or West, they're going to be the second or third team on the board.

It's my understanding that the committee takes the next best team in successive rounds - so a two loss team from the East might sit there and never get picked, at least until another two loss team from another region shows up on the board, and then it won't be apples to apples with those "quality" losses.

While it is possible that 2-loss SJF could be the East region's representative for the entirety of the Pool C process and never get in, the likelihood is small.  They may wind up with the highest SOS of any at-large team (tight race with UW-Oshkosh), and they may well sneak an extra RRO win in vs. Olivet (I expect Olivet will be ranked if they get to 9-1...they may well be ranked this week anyway).  With a giant SOS and a 1-1 or 1-2 record vs. RROs, I think they're going in.  At some point the at-large table is going to get populated with teams that are 9-1, loss to undefeated league champion, middle of the pack SOS, no quality wins (we call this The Muhlenberg™) and that kind of profile won't beat SJF 4-5 rounds deep into the process.

[HansenRatings]

Doesn't look good for Platteville fans.

Or players/coaches. It's frustrating to have to play two games annually against Top 5-10 teams, and not get a chance to continue your season unless you beat one of them.