Pool C in 2016

[wally_wabash]

The E8 runner up coming off the board second is more likely if Alfred finds themselves in Pool C purgatory rather than a 2 loss Fisher. I know these projections are done with an "if the season ended today" (on a Wednesday?!?) caveat, but I wonder which round Fisher would actually get selected if they are in the at large pool.

I would guess that they slide back to the 3rd or 4th selection.  This all presumes that SJF stays the top ranked at-large team in the region.  It gets weird if, say, Salisbury beats Frostburg and for some reason jumps SJF in the rankings.  I don't think that happens.  Lets follow the dominos...Salisbury basically can't be ranked higher than Wesley.  SJF is going to have an SOS advantage on Wesley, the same 8-2 record, and the same 1-1 record vs. RROs (Frostburg drops out in this scenario).  They both carry a loss to an unranked team, which seems like a bit of a wash.  I think SJF has enough of a head start on Wesley at the moment that I think they can absorb a loss to Alfred by a reasonable margin and stay ranked ahead of Wesley, and thus ranked ahead of Salisbury. 

Now if SJF catches a beatemdown, all bets are off with respect to Salisbury.  But I think it's a good game between two good teams that won't force a lot of movement at the top of the rankings in the East.  The final East rankings should look something like: E8 champion, Hobart, E8 runner up, Wesley. 

Speaking of Wesley and slightly off topic, Wesley's movement all the way up to 4 would bode well for those wondering if there would be a game in Dover in Week 12.  Seems more likely than not right now, but also not a certainty.  Depends on how the teams get paired off. 

[Frank Rossi]

Wally, under that scenario, you'd have a potential 1-loss Frostburg with an improving SOS and a 1-1 RRO if Salisbury stays ranked vs. a 2-loss SJF team with an improving SOS and a 1-1 RRO.  It's possible the "final 25% of season" tiebreaker applies there, giving Frostburg the edge.  It will depend on SOS ultimately if this scenario plays out.

[art76]

So, going to the next step - if Alfred wins this coming Saturday and are the number one team in the East Regional rankings, what's the likelihood of them being one of the top 4 seeds in the 32 team bracket?

[Ralph Turner]

So, going to the next step - if Alfred wins this coming Saturday and are the number one team in the East Regional rankings, what's the likelihood of them being one of the top 4 seeds in the 32 team bracket?

IMHO, an undefeated #1 team in a Region should head a bracket.

You cannot ask a team to do more.

[art76]

Using Wally's projected picks, and the D3 Top 25 Poll information I made the following table.

Some things to note:
1. The teams are listed in order of yesterday's Regional Rankings. If a team was not ranked, it simply got put to the bottom of the list. The East Region had two such teams.
2. The number to the right of the team's name is the D3 Top 25 Ranking. As in year's past, if a team received votes, I simply counted out to the end of all the teams. If a team received no votes, they tied at 43 this year.
3. Then I added up those numbers on the right and divided by the number of teams from each region to come up with an average ranking of a team from that region. The East is "weakest" and the West is "toughest" - no real surprises here.

Enjoy!

If the selection field were set now:

EAST

1. Alfred                14
2. St. John Fisher       18
3. Hobart          22
4. Wesley         20
5. Stevenson          23
6. Western New England   26
7. Husson          43
8. Bridgewater State       43
            209 = 26.125

NORTH

1. Mount Union       1
2. North Central       6
3. Wheaton         12
4. Olivet                41
5. Wittenberg         19
6. Rose-Hulman       43
7. Lakeland          43
             165 = 23.571

SOUTH

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor            2
2. Johns Hopkins               9
3. Hardin-Simmons       10
4. Case Western Reserve   21
5. Thomas More              13
6. Randolph-Macon      39
7. Huntingdon         28
8. Centre                40
                         162 = 20.250

WEST

1. Whitewater         3
2. St. Thomas              4
3. Oshkosh            5
4. Coe             15
5. Linfield         7
6. St. John's         8
7. Monmouth         24
8. Northwestern      43
9. Redlands         37
            146 = 16.222

[art76]

We all know that the brackets are fluid and not strictly placed by region only. but I sure would like to see Oshkosh go to the North region and have Mount Union play through both North Central and Oshkosh to move on.

[wally_wabash]

Wally, under that scenario, you'd have a potential 1-loss Frostburg with an improving SOS and a 1-1 RRO if Salisbury stays ranked vs. a 2-loss SJF team with an improving SOS and a 1-1 RRO.  It's possible the "final 25% of season" tiebreaker applies there, giving Frostburg the edge.  It will depend on SOS ultimately if this scenario plays out.

In a Frostburg beats Salisbury situation, definitely possible.  My lean is still that 8-2 SJF would remain ranked ahead of the NJAC runner up, but you're also much more in phase with East region happenings than I am. 

[wally_wabash]

So, going to the next step - if Alfred wins this coming Saturday and are the number one team in the East Regional rankings, what's the likelihood of them being one of the top 4 seeds in the 32 team bracket?

IMHO, an undefeated #1 team in a Region should head a bracket.

You cannot ask a team to do more.

I think where Alfred gets stuck behind all of the other undefeateds is on the last year's championship record tiebreak.  If they were going to displace somebody it would probably be St. Thomas and I'm not sure the committee would do that.  Particularly seconds after they decide to ignore the criteria and make Mount Union the #1 overall seed.  Now, if they were to evaluate the primary/secondary criteria completely before falling back to last year's championship record, We could definitely see Alfred as a #1 seed in a quadrant. 

As it stands though, I think Alfred is likely to wind up as the #2 in a quadrant with Mount Union. 

[art76]

Week 10 2016 hypothetical regional brackets

EAST

Bridgewater State at Alfred
Husson at Western New England

Stevenson at St. John Fisher
Wesley at Hobart

NORTH

Lakeland at Oshkosh
Wittenberg at Wheaton

Olivet at North Central
Rose-Hulman at Mount Union

SOUTH

Hardin-Simmons at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Thomas-More at Case Western Reserve

Randolph-Macon at Johns Hopkins
Centre at Huntingdon

WEST

Redlands at Linfield
Northwestern at St. Thomas

St. John's at Coe
Monmouth at Whitewater

[ITH radio]

The highest Alfred would be at 10-0 would be a two seed and would get paired with a MU or maybe a UST like the 10-0 Hobart team of 2012 was back then. Until an E8 champ runs the table and gets to a final four, the best the East can hope for is a 2 in one bracket or 6-8 overall (compared to say the North or West).

Also, and we're checking on this, WNE may not be qualified to host given press box and other constraints, so even though they are higher in the rankings, WNE would probably be the road team in the Husson pairing (or any really).

[Neverwas]

Week 10 2016 hypothetical regional brackets

EAST

Bridgewater State at Alfred
Husson at Western New England

Stevenson at St. John Fisher
Wesley at Hobart

NORTH

Lakeland at Oshkosh
Wittenberg at Wheaton

Olivet at North Central
Rose-Hulman at Mount Union

SOUTH

Hardin-Simmons at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Thomas-More at Case Western Reserve

Randolph-Macon at Johns Hopkins
Centre at Huntingdon

WEST

Redlands at Linfield
Northwestern at St. Thomas

St. John's at Coe
Monmouth at Whitewater

I am sure others have opinions but this looks like 9-1 UW-O would be seeded above 10-0 NCC (and maybe Mount Union?).  Which would make NCC a 3 in their quad and Mount a 2 (or Mount 1 and NCC 4).  At least that is how I read it if Wheaton is playing UW-O in second round.  I don't see that as very likely, right?

[Ralph Turner]

I like that Art76.

I think that they are trying to move the WIAC teams apart.

Oshkosh cannot bus to Alliance.

[art76]

I am sure others have opinions but this looks like 9-1 UW-O would be seeded above 10-0 NCC (and maybe Mount Union?).  Which would make NCC a 3 in their quad and Mount a 2 (or Mount 1 and NCC 4).  At least that is how I read it if Wheaton is playing UW-O in second round.  I don't see that as very likely, right?

Because of mileage constraints, true seedings were not really considered in this mock example. And as ITH has already alluded to, there is no way Alfred is going to stay a #1 seed in the East. He also shared info not available to most of us concerning the availability to host a game. Unfortunately, IMHO, because of mileage constraints we can't do a true #32 plays #1 kind of bracket. If we could be that objective, it would make things easier.

[art76]

I am sure others have opinions but this looks like 9-1 UW-O would be seeded above 10-0 NCC (and maybe Mount Union?).  Which would make NCC a 3 in their quad and Mount a 2 (or Mount 1 and NCC 4).  At least that is how I read it if Wheaton is playing UW-O in second round.  I don't see that as very likely, right?

Because of mileage constraints, true seedings were not really considered in this mock example. And as ITH has already alluded to, there is no way Alfred is going to stay a #1 seed in the East. He also shared info not available to most of us concerning the availability to host a game. Unfortunately, IMHO, because of mileage constraints we can't do a true #32 plays #1 kind of bracket. If we could be that objective, it would make things easier.

PS. I only had one flight in the first round - Redlands to Linfield.

[SaintsFAN]

Week 10 2016 hypothetical regional brackets

EAST

Bridgewater State at Alfred
Husson at Western New England

Stevenson at St. John Fisher
Wesley at Hobart

NORTH

Lakeland at Oshkosh
Wittenberg at Wheaton

Olivet at North Central
Rose-Hulman at Mount Union

SOUTH

Hardin-Simmons at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Thomas-More at Case Western Reserve

Randolph-Macon at Johns Hopkins
Centre at Huntingdon

WEST

Redlands at Linfield
Northwestern at St. Thomas

St. John's at Coe
Monmouth at Whitewater

There's just no way the NCAA lets this happen.  They already played in the regular season.  Remember?