Pool C in 2016

[RtSLl3100]

But if you are trying to limit the flights; HSU probably will end up playing UMHB; unless as Keith said HSU losses on Saturday

[SaintsFAN]

But if you are trying to limit the flights; HSU probably will end up playing UMHB; unless as Keith said HSU losses on Saturday

I was being a smarta$$

[Ralph Turner]

But if you are trying to limit the flights; HSU probably will end up playing UMHB; unless as Keith said HSU losses on Saturday

We (McMurry) have beaten the Cowboys once since the series resumed in 1990.

[ITH radio]

Projection is interesting but I don't see three WIAC teams getting in.

[wally_wabash]

Projection is interesting but I don't see three WIAC teams getting in.

Sure as heck makes bracketing a lot easier though.  I'm trying to mock something up with the teams I projected last night and one less team in the midwest and one more team in the northeast is making this very weird.  I'm also not nearly as good at the bracketing as Pat is. 

[wally_wabash]

Here's my mock with the projection I made this week:



I have the ASC/West Coast sub bracket, but it's not really that outlandish.  Linfield is sitting 5th in their region which makes them a probable road team in the second round anyway.   Even if we think Linfield is better than the "seed" they'll get, the criteria kind of say they are in the 4/5 range which means a second round road game. 

If I did anybody dirty it's probably Wesley/SJF in the first round.  That's a rough draw.  And the winner gets Mount Union!  Can't say we're letting Mount Union off too easy though.  And in case it isn't obvious, I would have UWW and UMHB host semifinal games if the seeds hold that far. 

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

Don't like this nearly as much as Pat's .. but I'd agree that Linfield going on the road to MHB in round two is likely

[Ralph Turner]

The Linfield/Redlands game for me is a #4/#6 game for me, so #4/#1 in the second round is not that bad.

Is HSU a #3 and would host the second round if they beat UMHB?

[wally_wabash]

The Linfield/Redlands game for me is a #4/#6 game for me, so #4/#1 in the second round is not that bad.

Is HSU a #3 and would host the second round if they beat UMHB?

My process was to identify the top four seeds and then the next four (Alfred, Hopkins, North Central, and Oshkosh) and then build 4-team pods around those eight teams.  I didn't really look at seeding below the top two, per se.  It looks to me like Linfield would go on the road to either UMHB or HSU.  HSU is 3S and Linfield is 5W and while that's not the end-all, that's a good indicator.  Also, HSU and Linfield have a common opponent result which pretty clearly favors HSU.  So in my pretend bracket, yeah, Linfield goes to Texas either way if they win Round 1. 

[Ralph Turner]

The Linfield/Redlands game for me is a #4/#6 game for me, so #4/#1 in the second round is not that bad.

Is HSU a #3 and would host the second round if they beat UMHB?

My process was to identify the top four seeds and then the next four (Alfred, Hopkins, North Central, and Oshkosh) and then build 4-team pods around those eight teams.  I didn't really look at seeding below the top two, per se.  It looks to me like Linfield would go on the road to either UMHB or HSU.  HSU is 3S and Linfield is 5W and while that's not the end-all, that's a good indicator.  Also, HSU and Linfield have a common opponent result which pretty clearly favors HSU.  So in my pretend bracket, yeah, Linfield goes to Texas either way if they win Round 1.

Geographical proximity notwithstanding, I believe #1 thru #4 should host a first round game. I also have Linfield as a W5 being "seeded" as a S4.

I would love for UMHB to play the South #2, instead of JHU avoiding the ASC, again, and being sent up the east coast.  Aside from Wesley, the ASC gets sent to the "West" Region after the second round more often than not.

[wally_wabash]

FWIW I did put Hopkins in the same quadrant as UMHB.  If you wanted to get goofy with it you could swap the Hopkins pod with the Alfred pod without causing problems.  All of the Hopkins pod teams (except Huntingdon, who is flying after Round 1 no matter what anyway) can drive to Mount Union and whoever survives the UMHB pod either has to fly or be flown to.  Alfred/UMHB do anything for you?  Or is Hopkins the main target?   

[ITH radio]

For selfish reasons I'd love to see Hobart where you placed them. Creates some interesting matchups.

[art76]

Gang,

Wally's Pool C in order of picking:
1. Oshkosh
2. St. John Fisher
3. Wheaton
4. Hardin-Simmons
5. Case Western Reserve
6. St. John's

D3 Football's Pool C order of picking:
1. Oshkosh
2. Wheaton
3. Hardin-Simmons
4. Case Western Reserve
5. St. John's
6. Platteville

One big difference between the two is that D3 predicted St. John Fisher to lose to Alfred this Saturday, which for them muddies the waters in the East. Once again, it looks like this year that the secret final ranking is going to keep those of us on the outside wondering about the order of the Pool C picks. But, it looks fairly good like the West is going to get two teams in, the South is going to get two teams in, and the North will get one team in. Pecking order matters for that final spot.

Really looking forward to the Saturday night mock pick after Saturday's games are in the books.

[art76]

I think the two games that are most likely to upset the apple cart for Pool C picks are the Carnegie Mellon (6-3) at Case Western Reserve (9-0) and the St. John's (8-1) at Concordia-Moorhead (7-1 NCAA, 7-2 all games) games. A lot of people will have vested interests in these games, as the outcomes will determine whether or not their teams get considered in the Pool C discussions.

[wally_wabash]

One big difference between the two is that D3 predicted St. John Fisher to lose to Alfred this Saturday, which for them muddies the waters in the East. Once again, it looks like this year that the secret final ranking is going to keep those of us on the outside wondering about the order of the Pool C picks. But, it looks fairly good like the West is going to get two teams in, the South is going to get two teams in, and the North will get one team in. Pecking order matters for that final spot.

Indeed, what happens to SJF if they lose on Saturday isn't obvious.  They could get jumped by the Salisbury/Frostburg winner.  From my personal run through the criteria and how I value the different pieces, I think SJF stays the top-ranked at-large team in that region.  But there are 8 other people on the East RAC call Saturday night that might see it differently.  Frank and ITH are both making solid points about the NJAC runner up, the possibility of invoking the "last 25% of the season" clause, etc. 

For me, where the D3football.com projection is a little squirrely, is that they too have SJF as the top ranked at-large team in the East after a presumed loss to Alfred and did not select them at all, but did select UW-P which would have entered the discussion fairly late in the process.  That's a thing that I don't think would happen.  I think SJF would go in ahead of UW-P and perhaps even before UW-P ever got into play.  Certainly, if you were to compare the 8-2 profiles of SJF and UW-P side by side without anything happening before or after that comparison, you could justifiably vote for UW-P.  It's close, but either choice is reasonable.  Add in the context of the round-by-round accumulation of support for a team that was part of the original 4 and by the time you get to round 5 or 6, when theoretically UW-P would appear, and I don't think UW-P has the profile that is so overwhelmingly better than SJF's that they would jump to the front of the line.  I think they had that kind of profile last year and would have gone in as soon as they hit the board.  This year they do not. 

And just to clarify, that's not an anti-Platteville take.  I'm on record here somewhere as saying that I think Platteville probably ought to be in the tournament.  But the way selection works, they're buried too deep in their own region to have a good shot.  Not impossible, but a longshot.