Pool C in 2016

[smedindy]

I thought they'd jump SJF after they got hammered and the other results in the East seemed to open up a path.

CWRU losing helps their cause as well for sure. Had CWRU won and since St. John's proved their mettle today, I don't think there'd be any Pool C drama. Now, we gots drama.

[thunderdog]

Taking a stab at the pool C bids (in order):
1) UWO
2) SJU
3) Hardin Simmons
4) UMU - all the selction criteria gets tossed aside and common sense prevails
5) WHEATON
6) UWP - Wset is too loaded, 2 losses to 2 of the top 4 teams in the country, strong SOS, they're in!

[SaintsFAN]

Yeah, that's right - Frostburg on the table at the end. I think Frostburg's got a decent profile now and that may trump Platteville's advantages on all but record.

It's been a long day. The CWU game was entertaining, but long (1,078 yards and 67 total points), it was senior day, and STATCREW had a fluky quirky hiccup that caused the Time of Possession to be screwy in the second half. It took 10 minutes to figure out a fix! So I ain't firing on all synapses.

No worries - sounds like a long day!  I hate to be that guy, so I almost didn't point it out..  Also thought maybe you felt Frostburg was in before the last round. 

[hazzben]

Mock Pool C from D3 Bracketology Selection show:

1. UWO
2. Wheaton
3. HSU
4. Mount Union
5. SJU
6. SJF

UWP, SJF, Franklin, CWR

Final spot was really a debate over UWP and SJF. UWP didn't get on the board for consideration until the final round.

[Ralph Turner]

Mock Pool C from D3 Bracketology Selection show:

1. UWO
2. Wheaton
3. HSU
4. Mount Union
5. SJU
6. SJF

UWP, SJF, Franklin, CWR

Final spot was really a debate over UWP and SJF. UWP didn't get on the board for consideration until the final round.

SJF had the 52-10 win over Olivet, the North #5

[smedindy]

What was the rationale to rank SJF over Frostburg? (Sorry, I had other things...)

[wally_wabash]

What was the rationale to rank SJF over Frostburg? (Sorry, I had other things...)

Paraphrasing for Frank, but basically Frostburg had to overcome a giant SOS disadvantage with something more than just win percentage.  They kind of needed Salisbury to be ranked, which in his mock East RRs, they were not- basically there was not a good reason to rank 7-3 Salisbury ahead of 7-3 Brockport and then there wasn't a particularly compelling reason to rank 7-3 Brockport ahead of either Del Val (that Wesley win is pretty nice right now) or 9-1 Husson (this is no doubt where there is controversy). 

All of that being said, it isn't out of the question that Salisbury gets ranked and Frostburg gets ranked ahead of SJF.  Or that Frostburg goes ahead of SJF even without the Salisbury RRO result.  From my POV, whether the East region wants to have Frostburg or SJF hit leadoff, either probably are in a last in/first out situation. 

[art76]

My 2016 mock bracket

Quadrant One

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Hardin-Simmons

5. Western New England
8. Husson

7. Randolph-Macon
4. Wesley

6. Redlands
2. Linfield

Quadrant Two

1. Whitewater
8. Lakeland

6. Wittenberg
4. Mount Union

3. Wheaton
7. Washington U.

5. Coe
2. St. John's

Quadrant Three

1. St. Thomas
8. Northwestern

5. Hobart
4. St. John Fisher

3. Thomas More
7. Huntingdon

6. Monmouth
2. Oshkosh

Quadrant Four

1. North Central
8. Rose-Hullman

4. Alfred
5. Stevenson

3. Johns Hopkins
7. Bridgewater State

6. Olivet
2. John Carroll

Notes: I did not look at D3's bracket before putting this together. I have two flights in the first round, no surprises there. For quarter finals I have quadrant one playing quadrant four, as that is how the first four seeds worked out. I tried as hard as I could to keep flying to a minimum and yet keep integrity to how the teams were ranked 1 through 32. I think this bracket has more flying in the second and third rounds than the NCAA is willing to spring for, but who knows? The nice thing about it from my point of view is that it appears as "equitable as it can be" from someone with no horse in the race. Lastly, once a team was put in the quadrant, then they were ranked one through eight. Hopefully I got all the initial mileages right. I welcome comments. It'll be interesting to see later tonight who does get in in Pool C and then how the NCAA does the brackets. Enjoy!

[Upstate]

Not making Alfred U a 4 seed is a pretty big knock on them, especially since you have Fisher a 4 seed as well...

I think AU is a 2 seed at minimum and you can easily build a bracket around them as a #1 seed...

[art76]

Not making Alfred U a 4 seed is a pretty big knock on them, especially since you have Fisher a 4 seed as well...

I think AU is a 2 seed at minimum and you can easily build a bracket around them as a #1 seed...

FWIW - I used the D3 Top 25 Poll for setting this bracket, and the new one hasn't been released. I tried to guesstimate how far Mount Union would drop in relationship to John Carroll. I did not change any other team's position in the poll. I know that the committees do not look at the poll, but it's history has been pretty good at predicting how good a team is relative to other teams around the country.

If the week 11 poll had been released already, this mock bracket would probably look a little different.

[USee]

The scenario that gives me fear is the North Region keeping Mt Union ranked above Wheaton, based on reputation alone, and then Mt Union sitting at the table for the National committee and getting selected last thereby blocking Wheaton from the tournament. I know it's unlikely but its plausible and it will have me on edge today as we wait it out.

I think the committee has a tough task and the last couple picks when choosing between one loss teams and two loss teams will be difficult. I for one hope Platteville makes it in as I think its a better tournament with them involved this year.

[New Tradition]

The scenario that gives me fear is the North Region keeping Mt Union ranked above Wheaton, based on reputation alone, and then Mt Union sitting at the table for the National committee and getting selected last thereby blocking Wheaton from the tournament. I know it's unlikely but its plausible and it will have me on edge today as we wait it out.

I said as much in the broadcast yesterday when we learned of the outcome of the UMU game. I sure hope not.

[kiko]

The scenario that gives me fear is the North Region keeping Mt Union ranked above Wheaton, based on reputation alone, and then Mt Union sitting at the table for the National committee and getting selected last thereby blocking Wheaton from the tournament. I know it's unlikely but its plausible and it will have me on edge today as we wait it out.

I think the committee has a tough task and the last couple picks when choosing between one loss teams and two loss teams will be difficult. I for one hope Platteville makes it in as I think its a better tournament with them involved this year.

The North Region committee can alleviate this if they recognize the potential implication of putting Mount above the Wheaties and rank accordingly.  So the real question is whether the North committee aims for a pure ranking, irrespective of Pool C implications, or whether they aim for a ranking that gives them the best chance to get an additional team in.

I should mention -- in a pure ranking, IMO you can make a case for either Wheaton-then-Mount or for Mount-then-Wheaton.

[USee]

No you can't.  If it's based on the criteria Wheaton is clearly ahead of Mt.  In fact so,is Olivet and it's close with Franklin.

[Titan Q]

The scenario that gives me fear is the North Region keeping Mt Union ranked above Wheaton, based on reputation alone, and then Mt Union sitting at the table for the National committee and getting selected last thereby blocking Wheaton from the tournament. I know it's unlikely but its plausible and it will have me on edge today as we wait it out.

And this is why it's so important for the regional committee to get the order right.  In basketball, we have seen situations where the regional committee's order blocked a team with a strong Pool C resume from getting selected.  So had the order been A then B, A would have gotten in for sure...and B would have had an decent chance.  But by going B then A, neither gets in because B just sits there on the board forever.

I have always felt the regional committee's duty is to order their Pool C candidates in the manner that maximizes Pool C selections from that region (seems obvious to me but I have seen some head-scratchers).  In this case, they should clearly have Wheaton ahead of Mount Union.