2016 NCAA Tournament

[Off Pitch]

Sweet 16 predictions

Messiah 2 - Calvin  0
Cortland St 0 - F&M  2
Tufts 2 - UMASS Boston 1  (I would have picked UMass-Boston if at full strength)
Amherst 2 - Brandeis 0
RUN 2 - Oneonta St  1
Trinity(TX) 3 - Kenyon 1
Chicago 2 - Redlands 0
St.Thomas 1 - Benedictine 1 (St.Thomas in PKs)

[Mr.Right]

Redlands at +1000... I'll bite only because of the possible path.  I could see St. Thomas PKing their way in to a FINAL FOUR if they get Chicago. 

Second bite, Trinity +275... based off potential match-ups.  Still leaning with original prediction of Trinity over Tufts (per my bracket).

I'd put Brandeis at about 6/1... Amherst / RUN or Oneonta / Messiah/Calvin/F&M/Cortland is a very very tough draw.  I'd wager that Amherst DOES NOT reach the Final Four.  I've do RUN in my final four, but Oneonta St should beat them and secure the spot...

Messiah should have just enough depth to get passed Calvin and then beat F&M or Cortland 2 or 3 - rock.

I agree I think Trinity(TX) gets to the Final 4 out of that pod but since I only saw them once I have to see for myself against Kenyon

[Letthekidsplay59]

Also,

Hooksleft it seems you are very confident that Amherst will repeat as NCAA champions. Let's put your wallet where your mouth is..I'll even give you better odds tahn I have projected...If interested you can email me and we can discuss the details.

Let me remind all of you, and I feel like this isn't the first time I've had to do this, but being compensated for the performance of a team in the NCAA is illegal, "The NCAA opposes all forms of legal and illegal sports wagering, which has the potential to undermine the integrity of sports contests and jeopardizes the welfare of student-athletes and the intercollegiate athletics community".

That being said, how Amherst isn't, the favorite, baffles the mind.

[PaulNewman]

I don't have an ultimate prediction on Kenyon vs Trinity, but I'll offer the following.  I'm mildly surprised at most of the predictions suggesting a pretty comfortable win for Trinity.  I'm not displeased because I think the underdog role suits Kenyon just fine and while the Lords have very high expectations there is not the same pressure playing a fellow national title contender away from home as hosting like they did the prior two years with the internal pressure of being the "favorite."  Certainly Trinity is a strong title contender.  22-1 speaks for itself and they very easily could have won the Elite 8 game at Amherst last year.  I've watched them play and they are very good and very talented.  That said, Kenyon also was probably looking more likely to score against Calvin in their Elite 8 game when, as Domino noted, the Lords had a fatal and totally avoidable defensive miscue in like the 84th minute that determined the 1-0 outcome.  It's no coincidence that Kenyon's hype video for the tourney this year begins with that very play.  The current seniors have been to 4 straight Sweet 16s and an Elite 8 game.  They have played in some massive games going all the way back to their frosh years when they knocked off ONU and Wheaton (Ill) and lost to Messiah.  The juniors and sophs have played massive games with OWU, Chicago, Tufts, NCAC tourney games, Lynchburg on the road last week, etc, etc.  Even frosh have played a full season with a team that started the season with high expectations.  Kenyon has been playing under heavy pressure for at least the past 3 weeks because of the SoS thing and while not always pretty they came through and are sitting at a respectable 19-2 with an 11 game winning streak and another Sweet 16 appearance.  Kenyon will have to play its best soccer to go deeper but that's probably true of most of the other teams as well.  I see a 1 goal game either way that likely goes to OT and will be one of games of the entire tournament.  If Kenyon can manage to score first, and if they can maintain the same intensity and focus for 90 minutes I think it's possible the Lords could pull away.  Bottom line...I don't know who will win but I would be shocked if Kenyon did not show very, very well.  After that, regardless of who wins, I think Tufts has an equal or better chance to get through because of the easier first game (on paper) and home field advantage.  I don't think Tufts students go on break for Thanksgiving week so the Jumbos should have a very good turnout.  I'm expecting that Kenyon will have a decent fan turnout for a team so far away.  Very excited for Saturday to get here.

[Mr.Right]

Also,

Hooksleft it seems you are very confident that Amherst will repeat as NCAA champions. Let's put your wallet where your mouth is..I'll even give you better odds tahn I have projected...If interested you can email me and we can discuss the details.

Let me remind all of you, and I feel like this isn't the first time I've had to do this, but being compensated for the performance of a team in the NCAA is illegal, "The NCAA opposes all forms of legal and illegal sports wagering, which has the potential to undermine the integrity of sports contests and jeopardizes the welfare of student-athletes and the intercollegiate athletics community".

That being said, how Amherst isn't, the favorite, baffles the mind.

Thanks mom....The NCAA is talking about active student athletes not fans since Vegas posts lines on all NCAA D1 football and Basketball games...I am not an active student athlete...While I do not mind baffling the mind but Amherst is not the favorite because they are not as strong as they were in 2015. They have holes that can be exploited and have a big question mark in net. These odds are not based on last years results but this years performances...

[Jump4Joy]

Well, the Tufts GK has also come under scrutiny with his alleged failure to handle flighted balls into the box, especially between the 12 and the 6. Does that mean they don't have a chance either? Or does Shapiro go back to playing around with the GK starter for Saturday's match?

[D3soccerwatcher]

People will say they do not care about +k / -k but they do. I actually like the feature especially now that I will only give explanations for a +/- when I used to freely just give them about without explaining why. If everyone would explain why they give the karma it makes for a better site and more discussion which is why the feature is their to begin with IMO. Rudy, you are not the 1st to question it and will not be the last but if you do get a +/- from me I will tell you why.

Everyone knows I don't care about karma. Hah!

[rudy]

Also,

Hooksleft it seems you are very confident that Amherst will repeat as NCAA champions. Let's put your wallet where your mouth is..I'll even give you better odds tahn I have projected...If interested you can email me and we can discuss the details.

Let me remind all of you, and I feel like this isn't the first time I've had to do this, but being compensated for the performance of a team in the NCAA is illegal, "The NCAA opposes all forms of legal and illegal sports wagering, which has the potential to undermine the integrity of sports contests and jeopardizes the welfare of student-athletes and the intercollegiate athletics community".

That being said, how Amherst isn't, the favorite, baffles the mind.

Thanks mom....The NCAA is talking about active student athletes not fans since Vegas posts lines on all NCAA D1 football and Basketball games...I am not an active student athlete...While I do not mind baffling the mind but Amherst is not the favorite because they are not as strong as they were in 2015. They have holes that can be exploited and have a big question mark in net. These odds are not based on last years results but this years performances...

I would give you a +k on this post Mr right if I believed in karma.  Entertaining comment.

[blooter442]

Well, the Tufts GK has also come under scrutiny with his alleged failure to handle flighted balls into the box, especially between the 12 and the 6. Does that mean they don't have a chance either? Or does Shapiro go back to playing around with the GK starter for Saturday's match?

I've already covered what I think of Owen - although as I said I would like to see him do well - but as far as Tufts goes I think they stick with Greenwood. As much as Greenwood is questionable on high balls, he is extremely reliable otherwise, and I think he has been the best 'keeper in the NESCAC this year. Moreover, he very rarely gives up rebounds, and his .525 GAA and .867 save percentage are 9th and 10th in the country, respectively. That said, set pieces can make all the difference NCAAs, and I am sure that other teams will be sending high balls into the box.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Messiah 2
Calvin  0
I think this will be a solid 2-0 win for Messiah. Dispite Mr.Right's crys last year that the Messiah dynasty was over, here they are once again in the sweet sixteen. I don't think Calvin's front runners will be able to penetrate the Messiah back four.  The Messiah wingers will have success and midfielder and NPOY candidate Jacob Bender will control the middle third.

Cortland St 0
F&M  1
Two good teams but I give the edge to F&M. Former Messiah player and current F&M head coach has done a great job with this program. Pennsylvania would love to watch a Messiah vs F&M rematch in the Elite 8.

Tufts 1
UMass 1 (UMass in PK's)
I hate to predict this. I'm no Tufts fan and they really lost me when they lost two in a row to Bowdoin. But man, I hope I'm wrong on this one. But UMass can play soccer (when they are not up to their shenanigans) and I fear some kind of reverse psychology might get them up for this one even though they are down players. Need Tufts to really show up for this one. For this game...a very sincere GO JUMBOS!!!...send UMass home so they can really think about their behavior and hopefully mend their ways.

Amherst 0
Brandeis 1

RUN 2
Oneonta St  1

Trinity(TX) 0
Kenyon 2
I think Trinity's lack of playing against good competition will catch up to them.

Chicago 2
Redlands 0
Seems that Chicago just has too much mojo for Redlands.

St.Thomas 0
Benedictine 1

[Nutmeg]

I haven't been around much, given work travel. Lots of bickering, but that's what the tourney does.....that umass Boston video was something. I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of sanction is imposed at some point. Rooting for the Judges and Jumbos..... looking for some reports for those attending the games....

[TommieFan111]

Sweet 16 Predictions

Messiah 2 - Calvin  1
Cortland St 1 - F&M  0
Tufts 3 - UMASS Boston 2
Amherst 2 (OT) - Brandeis 1
RUN 2 - Oneonta St  0
Trinity(TX) 2 - Kenyon 1
Chicago 1 - Redlands 2
St.Thomas 2 - Benedictine 0

[ultimateD3soccerexpert]

Simmer down please, Mr. Right. Even Mr. Right can be Mr. Wrong sometimes!

Also, Lee Owen is more than capable in net for Amherst. Anyone who disagrees should reference Amherst's NCAA win against St. Lawrence in 2014 when Bull was taken out for the shootout because Owen is such a good shot stopper. He's not as massive or commanding as Bull, but still a very solid goalkeeper.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Thoughts

Messiah v Calvin----2-1 Messiah in OT (own goal for Calvin sends Messiah through despite being the weaker side)

Cortland St v F&M----1-0 Cortland (Cortland will dominate and the score won't reflect the game)

Tufts v UMASS Boston----2-1 UMass Boston (They want to be the villain and it only fuels their fire)

Amherst v Brandeis------Amherst 1-0 OT (Amherst sneaks by and continues the quest to repeat)

RUN v Oneonta St-----Oneonta St 3-2 (Toughest game to predict so flip a coin. Heads Oneonta. Tails RUN. It was heads)

Trinity(TX) v Kenyon-----Trinity(TX) 2-1 (Kenyon is no match for an experienced Trinity squad) 

Chicago v Redlands-----Chicago 1-1 2OT (Chicago advances on PKs 4-2 and avoids disaster)

St.Thomas v Benedictine----St.Thomas 1-0 (No clue about either of these teams so lets go with this)

[blooter442]

Simmer down please, Mr. Right. Even Mr. Right can be Mr. Wrong sometimes!

Also, Lee Owen is more than capable in net for Amherst. Anyone who disagrees should reference Amherst's NCAA win against St. Lawrence in 2014 when Bull was taken out for the shootout because Owen is such a good shot stopper. He's not as massive or commanding as Bull, but still a very solid goalkeeper.

Saying someone is a "good shot stopper" by citing his ability to stop PKs is like judging a quarterback solely by his ability to execute QB sneaks - it is a component of the position, but does not illustrate the gamut of responsibilities. Not a perfect parallel - while certain QBs are "running QBs" and his team's offense may be based around the ground game, a goalkeeper cannot choose to face primarily penalty kicks in the way a QB can choose to primarily run the ball - but I think you get where I'm coming from. We have referenced that very result, and I've also referenced the PK that he stopped against Midd., but from open play he gives up a concerning number of rebounds and doesn't handle high balls well. He is not a bad goalkeeper by any means, but doesn't inspire confidence in the way that Bull did or other goalkeepers who are on teams with national title ambitions - Hill Bonin, etc. - do.

That said, I've also said that if one or more games in the tournament was to come down to PKs - and I imagine that, should Amherst get to the Final again, one most likely will - that the Jeffs could well have an advantage with Owen in net. That is why they play the games!