2017 NCAA Tournament

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think Wartburg has the best chance to get out of the weekend only because I think that pod has a "free-for-all" feel to it. I think anyone could win that pod. Keene State and Endicott are sitting in pods were one or two dominating teams are sitting which makes me feel it is far harder for them.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Endicott went to Middlebury earlier this year and overcame a huge halftime lead.  The Panthers were not happy about it.  I'm pretty sure Endicott could shoot 80% from the floor on Friday and Matt St. Amour would find a way to shoot 85%.  If they hadn't had the history, I'd pick EC in the upset (like I did back in December); not this time.

I think Keene is a legitimately good team.  They're deep and strong.  I don't consider them any less than the other three teams in that bracket, but seeing as how the four teams in Wartburg's bracket are all probably more fallible, I'll give them the edge.  They have no defeated three of the top WIAC teams this season.  Even if the shooting doesn't hold up, they're not terrible.

[HOPEful]

I'll take Endicott. You can't get much better than Walker and Motroni. Add if they can get past Middlebury, a team they beat back in November, I like their chances against Williams or Susquehanna.

Even if Wartburg beats Augie, I'd take the Hope/Hanover winner in the Saturday game. I'm keen on Keene but the gambit of CNU and then Babson/Tufts if too daunting to pick them...

[nescac1]

Walker and Motroni are really good, but Brown and Daly are likewise one of the very best backcourt duos in the country; both are absolutely relentless on both ends, especially defensively.  Should be a great match-up, and Midd goes in with an edge knowing that if the backcourt matchup is even, it's very unlikely that Endicott's thin frontcourt can match the production Midd gets from St. Amour and its big men.  But an Endicott win would not shock me, and if Williams does advance and Endicott pulls off the upset, their guards' quickness would pose big problems for us.  They are very capable of making it to Salem, for sure. 

I was really impressed by Hope's Hawkins and Blackledge when Williams played them earlier -- as good a duo of players as I've seen in the country.  Hawkins is lightning quick and Blackledge is just a really savvy dude out there.  Williams was fortunate to get him in foul trouble.  Hope seems to rely on those guys a heck of a lot so the key is for Carlson and Stuive to continue to provide big shooting games; any significant bench production seems to be a major bonus at this point for Hope and seems increasingly less likely as the competition grows stronger.   Hope's talent level 5-10 I found to be underwhelming, putting an enormous amount of pressure on the top four (very talented) guys. 

I like Tufts emerging from the Babson/CNU bracket.  Tom Palleschi has another week to get healthy and it seems like Vinny Pace may have found his mojo now that he's a year removed from his surgery.  Those two guys if healthy plus Tarik Smith gives them three REALLY tough guys to stop individually, and they have waves of interchangeable big, athletic wings who can shoot the 3 to rotate in and out and around them.  Health has really been the only limiting factor for them this year.  Babson on the other hand still seems pretty banged up and figures to get worn down in back-to-back games relying SO much on just a few key guys to carry a huge burden (even if one is a sure-fire first team all-American). 

[Gregory Sager]

I'll take Endicott. You can't get much better than Walker and Motroni. Add if they can get past Middlebury, a team they beat back in November, I like their chances against Williams or Susquehanna.

Even if Wartburg beats Augie, I'd take the Hope/Hanover winner in the Saturday game. I'm keen on Keene but the gambit of CNU and then Babson/Tufts if too daunting to pick them...

If Hope plays the way that it did on Saturday against Wash U for the next two weekends, the Dutch will cut down the net in Salem. Thing is, I'm not sold on the idea that they can sustain what they did to Wash U for four more games, even though two of them would be in DeVos. They haven't put together that kind of a Wartburgian stretch this year against top teams.

I still think that Whitman is the x factor in this tournament. Nobody ever talks about the Blues, because everybody's usually in bed already while Whitman is playing. But I've watched a couple of Whitman games, and it's a seriously deep and talented team that can wear down an opponent with that relentless tempo. I'm interested in seeing what Whitman would bring to the table against a Christopher Newport or a Middlebury or a Hope.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'll take Endicott. You can't get much better than Walker and Motroni. Add if they can get past Middlebury, a team they beat back in November, I like their chances against Williams or Susquehanna.

Even if Wartburg beats Augie, I'd take the Hope/Hanover winner in the Saturday game. I'm keen on Keene but the gambit of CNU and then Babson/Tufts if too daunting to pick them...

If Hope plays the way that it did on Saturday against Wash U for the next two weekends, the Dutch will cut down the net in Salem. Thing is, I'm not sold on the idea that they can sustain what they did to Wash U for four more games, even though two of them would be in DeVos. They haven't put together that kind of a Wartburgian stretch this year against top teams.

I still think that Whitman is the x factor in this tournament. Nobody ever talks about the Blues, because everybody's usually in bed already while Whitman is playing. But I've watched a couple of Whitman games, and it's a seriously deep and talented team that can wear down an opponent with that relentless tempo. I'm interested in seeing what Whitman would bring to the table against a Christopher Newport or a Middlebury or a Hope.

If they can get by Hardin-Simmons - which, one coach told me is the best team he's seen in person in the last two years (and he's seen multiple top 10 programs in both years).  That should be a great matchup.

[Gregory Sager]

Yes, I've seen a couple of Cowboys games as well, and Hardin-Simmons is indeed legit. That should be a great early game in Ohio on Friday night.

[HOPEful]

If Hope plays the way that it did on Saturday against Wash U for the next two weekends, the Dutch will cut down the net in Salem.

Yes, but I don't think this statement is all that fair to Hope. If your forward that averages 11 points per games shoots 10 for 11 from 3 and as a team you take 29 shots from behind the arc and make 55% of them, you're not losing that game!! There's certainly room for some regression against Hanover. If I watch every Hope game for the next 30 years, I might not see them play as well as they did last Saturday. I'm just hoping they can keep up the defensive intensity they showed against UWO and Washington.

Hope's talent level 5-10 I found to be underwhelming, putting an enormous amount of pressure on the top four (very talented) guys. 

Not wrong, especially when it comes to scoring points. Harrison, Dante, Chad, and Stuive definitely carry the team offensively.

[nescac1]

Anyone have much insight into Susquehanna, besides statistical?  Seems like they don't have any fans on these boards ...

[Gregory Sager]

If Hope plays the way that it did on Saturday against Wash U for the next two weekends, the Dutch will cut down the net in Salem.

Yes, but I don't think this statement is all that fair to Hope. If your forward that averages 11 points per games shoots 10 for 11 from 3 and as a team you take 29 shots from behind the arc and make 55% of them, you're not losing that game!! There's certainly room for some regression against Hanover. If I watch every Hope game for the next 30 years, I might not see them play as well as they did last Saturday. I'm just hoping they can keep up the defensive intensity they showed against UWO and Washington.

Who said anything about fair? I don't see how fairness plays into this.

I didn't say anything about Stuive going off like a maniac beyond the arc, because that's not a necessary ingredient for Hope's success. If somebody else -- Carlson, perhaps, or Blackledge or Hawkins -- is hitting a lot of those shots instead of Stuive over the next two weekends, it all comes out the same.

My point was that Hope played well enough at both ends of the floor on Saturday to beat any team in the nation, so the Dutch have demonstrated that the Walnut & Bronze is within their grasp. And, yeah, there is room for regression against Hanover, but perhaps not as much as you think; the Panthers are a very good basketball team, in spite of the fact that the HCAC isn't a league that garners a lot of respect. And the room for regression gets even smaller as Hope gets deeper in.

[4samuy]

I agree that Hanover is a good basketball team, but if I was in a sweet sixteen confidence pool I would have Hope at 16.  Not only are they at home, but Hanover has been on the right side of a ton of close games this year.  Hanover has proven that when the game is on the line in the last few minutes, they have the ability, execution and toughness to get it done. IMHO I just don't see this game being all that close due to the talent of the Hope bigs.

[iwumichigander]

I agree that Hanover is a good basketball team, but if I was in a sweet sixteen confidence pool I would have Hope at 16.  Not only are they at home, but Hanover has been on the right side of a ton of close games this year.  Hanover has proven that when the game is on the line in the last few minutes, they have the ability, execution and toughness to get it done. IMHO I just don't see this game being all that close due to the talent of the Hope bigs.

it depends on which Hope team shows up.  Hope has the advantages - home court, DeVos will be packed, size and on paper should win.  But, this is the same team that lost some head scratchers including two to Calvin down the stretch.

[Gregory Sager]

... which goes back to my original statement about the Dutch. They've proven over the course of one game that they can beat anybody in this tournament. They haven't proven that they can replicate that kind of performance, or anything close to it, five times in a row.

[AllStar]

Wow!  My simple graphics really set off a firestorm here.   

[HOPEful]

And, yeah, there is room for regression against Hanover, but perhaps not as much as you think; the Panthers are a very good basketball team, in spite of the fact that the HCAC isn't a league that garners a lot of respect. And the room for regression gets even smaller as Hope gets deeper in.

Agree with all of this. Hanover is a VERY good team. I believe the winner of the Hope/Hanover game will being playing in Salem. I also think Hope matches up well against Hanover, barring they keep out of foul trouble. I expect Fails to struggle against Dante Hawkins, and I expect Hope's defense to focus primarily on stopping (perhaps containing is the better gerund) McKinney and Muchmore. Hope's depth is certainly an issue, but the Panthers have almost the exact same issue. Fails, McKinney, Muchmore, and Buck account for almost the exact disproportionate amount of Hanover's offense as Blackledge, Hawkins, Carlson, and Stuive do for Hope (both teams between 72-73% of scoring).

I'm really excited for this game! Is it Friday yet!?