2017 NCAA Tournament

[Mr. Ypsi]

I've been collecting data for a couple of charts I'll post later in the week regarding d3hoops.com's preseason poll performance in terms of predicting the Final Four, and this actually isn't a bad year for the pollsters. It's not a great year, either, but it's not nearly the disaster that last year was, when Benedictine became only the sixth team in the history of the d3hoops.com poll to reach Salem after having been left off of everybody's preseason ballots.

Williams is now the seventh team to reach Salem despite zero preseason points.

We both miscounted, Chuck. Williams is the eighth team to reach Salem despite zero preseason points.

2002: Otterbein (national champion)
2002: Rochester (4th place)
2005: Calvin (3rd place)
2005: York PA (4th place)
2008: Ursinus (4th place)
2009: Franklin & Marshall (4th place)
2016: Benedictine (2nd place)
2017: Williams (?)

And IIRC you were among the many who felt Augie deserved zero preseason votes due to their graduation losses (they finished 18th due to voters who seem to automatically give initial votes to teams who did well the year before).

True, which doesn't look good for me now, although you're the one who said that Trevor Seibring was going to be the CCIW Most Outstanding Player this season. Seriously, though, given the circumstances I'll defend my charge that picking Augustana 18th in the preseason poll was ridiculous. The Doggies lost their top six scorers/rebounders/minutes-eaters to graduation. As you said, it was a case of voters automatically giving their initial votes to teams who did well the year before, because in the same breath I pointed out that Elmhurst, which had lost nine seniors from the year before, nevertheless drew a little bit of support in the preseason poll as well.

I strongly doubt that the pollsters who put Augie 18th or higher on their preseason ballots were doing their homework. Augustana returned three rotation reserves -- Dylan Sortillo, Chrishawn Orange, and Pierson Wofford (who left the team a month and a half ago) -- plus a trio of marginal end-of-the-bench guys in Jacob Johnston, Michael Hoekstra, and A.J. Dollmeyer (who has played a grand total of two minutes in the tourney thus far and is clearly now the third-string center). Nobody who took a long and serious look at Augie at the end of last season would've projected them anywhere near 18th in the nation in the 2016-17 preseason poll, because nobody could've foreseen: a) the phenomenal improvement of Johnston from garbage-minutes scrub as a junior to All-CCIW second-teamer as a senior; b) the emergence of sophomore Nolan Ebel, who was essentially relegated to JV duty last season, as a worthy successor to Hunter Hill at PG; c) the addition of a valuable D2-transfer contributor in Brett Benning; or d) the important roles that freshmen Micah Martin, Lucas Simon, and Donovan Ferguson would play for Augie this season.

Bold one: I didn't miscount - I just took your generally reliable word for it that there were six!

Bold two: Yeah, I certainly blew that prediction.  I expected a senior year for Trevor more on the lines of Zach Freeman a decade earlier, except with a better supporting cast that just might carry them to the top (Zach was first-team AA in 2007, but the graduation of an incredible 2006 senior class left him a 'Lone Ranger').  Still not sure whether I just over-hyped him or whether his back problems were actually a season-long (undisclosed) problem.

For overall excellence, I would definitely take Jordan Robinson for Regional POY.  But it's hard to argue against Sabin's offensive output.   

[Gregory Sager]

Oh, no doubt SAC.  I mean just look at Augustana -- last year's loaded, heavily-favored, senior-dominated squad fell one game short of Salem, while this year's "rebuilding" team made it.  Match-ups, injuries, luck, peaking at the right time, they all play a huge factor.  But I do think Whitman (in particular), Augustana, and Williams all look fairly loaded heading into next year, along with a few other squads that bring nearly everyone back (North Central, Whitewater, Swarthmore, River Falls, Wash U. ...).

I'm going to throw another name into that pile: Nebraska Wesleyan. The Prairie Wolves were IIAC co-champs this season but missed out on making the tourney -- no surprise there, since the IIAC rarely gets two teams into the dance. But next season NWU will return All-West Region first-teamer (and IIAC MVP) Cooper Cook (18.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, .448 trey), All-West Region third-teamer (and the region's ROY) Nate Schimonitz (19.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2:1 a:to), two other starters, and super-sub Deion Wells-Ross (12.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg while only averaging 22.4 mpg). All told, the Prairie Wolves return four starters, their top six scorers, and their top five rebounders from a team that went 18-8.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Jacks played last weekend.  Bohmiller is day-to-day, I guess.

[nescac1]

Jacks barely played in both games, just for a few minutes total, so something is clearly limiting him though ... he's Babson's fourth best guy when healthy.  And without him there is no frontcourt depth at all.  In all events barring foul trouble I doubt Flannery will spend a minute on the bench this weekend.

[PeterEscobar]

Babson is the polar opposite: with Flannery, Nelson, Droney, Rice, and Bohmiller all graduating, it could be tough sledding for Babson next season.

Tough sledding might be a bit of an over statement... Comenale is first-team all conference and all-region as a junior, Lowry has now started in four NCAA tournament games at the point guard spot (putting up huge assist numbers) as a junior, and a healthy Bradley Jacks returns next season as well. Add in transfers (Babson has always made a killing on the transfer market) and that's a nice little core to bring back in the NEWMAC.

[nescac1]

I'm sure Babson will be a solid team next year.  But they lose 56 ppg (out of 83) and 25 rpg (out of 39).  Those are massive losses to graduation.  And you can't overstate the impact of losing a three-time all-American like Flannery.  His presence on the floor makes things MUCH easier for his teammates.  You think Comenale will see 1/5 of the open looks he now gets from 3 when he is the main focus of opposing defenses every single game?  And it's not like there is a huge reservoir of underclass talent ready to step up -- zero sophomores on the roster, and only one frosh (Oftring) who looks like he might be a major contributor next season.  Barring an insane recruiting class or several high-impact transfers, Babson is not gonna be a top 25 team next year.   

Meanwhile, their rivals should be substantially stronger next year.  I think Springfield is a dark horse top 25 team, returning its entire frosh-dominated roster including likely national-ROY Jake Ross, who will be to Springfield what Flannery has been to Babson (assuming he sticks around and stays healthy).  They have loads of talent, just need experience.  MIT, which beat Babson for the NEWMAC title, only graduates one senior, and MIT's star missed half the season this year.   I could easily see Babson going from a top-two team nationally (and one that absolutely dominated its league for the last few years) to a middle-of-the-pack team in NEWMAC.  That is what I mean by rough sledding. 

[Greek Tragedy]

The thing about Sabin that is impressive isn't the fact he averaged 30+ a game. It's that he shot 55% doing it. Adding 5.4 reb a game is a bonus as is his solid 3-pt shooting and way above average FT shooting.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

CNU will still be good.  Ramapo returns almost everybody.  Of course, Whitman doesn't have a senior on the team, so I suspect they'll be pre-season #1 no matter what happens this weekend.

[Greek Tragedy]

CNU will still be good.  Ramapo returns almost everybody.  Of course, Whitman doesn't have a senior on the team, so I suspect they'll be pre-season #1 no matter what happens this weekend.

And Ramapo will disappoint again next year, just like every other year for the NJAC. I listened to the interview on Hoopsville prior to the tourney with the Ramapo coach and it was a good one. He really felt they had a shot at something special and they were hosting too. But, NJCU goes out in the 1st round and Ramapo loses at home on Saturday. Not sure if I can ever trust a NJAC team in the NCAAs.

[WUPHF]

The thing about Sabin that is impressive isn't the fact he averaged 30+ a game. It's that he shot 55% doing it. Adding 5.4 reb a game is a bonus as is his solid 3-pt shooting and way above average FT shooting.

Solid three point shooting is a bit of an understatement.

His three point percentage was 48%!

[Greek Tragedy]

So what are the rosters for the all-star game? I would hope Sabin is in it.

[ronk]

So what are the rosters for the all-star game? I would hope Sabin is in it.

The rosters are on the front page.

[augie77]

Daniel Bahls, son of Augustana President Steven Bahls, is a 2004 graduate of Williams.  Dad and son have a friendly wager on this.   

[Smitty Oom]

NABC D3 ALL STAR ROSTERS

Yup it was on the front page but here are the rosters, Sabin is in it. I'm sure he will put on a show!

[Greek Tragedy]

So what are the rosters for the all-star game? I would hope Sabin is in it.

The rosters are on the front page.

OK. That must have been recent. I had checked earlier and I didn't think I saw them. Maybe I just missed it too.