2017 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

First of all, I apologize.  JCU is MUCH better and MUCH more talented than I thought.  Tough result for OWU after climbing back and taking the lead, and they will be very good...at least next year but perhaps at the end of this season when it matters.  Good to see some real offense and good offensive play.

And ONU handled Oberlin...not a good result for the Yeomen...have to win some of these types of games if you want to crack into the category of being a real challenger.

[Mr.Right]

I only caught the 1st half and OT but JCU is very legit. That kid Lombardo is a fantastic striker and they looked very dangerous going forward especially on their carpet. I missed thee 2nd half but sounds like they need to shore up defensively if they want to make a deep NCAA run. I would not want to play an NCAA road game at JCU as they looked very COMFORTABLE at home.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon has scored ONE goal in the last 220 minutes of play, against mighty Marietta and not-your-father's Thomas More.  That one goal was from a long cross and an athletic, spectacular (some might say a bit lucky) header by Jeon.  I will again repeat that the Lords were scoreless in their last three NCAA exits spanning a shade under 300 minutes of play.  Against TMC, Kenyon had 80-85% of the possession...BUT...TMC had 75-80% of the best, point-blank chances...and to be honest, failing to grab a second goal, the Lords were fortunate not to lose. 

I was wrong, wrong, wrong about the NCAC...just saw this morning that DePauw lost 4-0 to Centre.  Oberlin spit the bit with Calvin on the ropes and then in a must-win home game with ONU.  OWU, at an admittedly deceptive 3-3, is currently the best team in the NCAC.

Here's my current Great Lakes rankings...

1) JCU
2) CMU
3) Geneva
4) Transy
5) OWU
6) ONU
7) Capital
8) Kenyon
9) Oberlin
10) Pick 'em from Hanover, RHIT, Grove City

[Domino1195]

(Paul Newman - was posting this while you were making your comment)

What to make of yesterday's games?  Head-scratching might leave you bald.

Identity.  What defines a program, what defines the current team?  What changes a program/team's identity?  When is a event a one-off, an aberration - and when is an event a signal of an emerging trend?  My take-away from this weekend is that there are many identities in flux - at least for this season. Whether they are signs of larger changes, whether they are mere aberrations three weeks into the season - we'll soon find out.


Players today have such an advantage with film of every game at their disposal.  Unfortunately, "kids today" are spoiled brats who don't know how to work for goals, especially when things get tough. Film study provides the opportunity to look into a mirror - see what you did - learn from it.  You can lead a player to the film room but you can't make them see . . .


Massey GL Rankings through yesterday, 1-12:

Team      Record   SoS   SSF
John Carroll   6-0      16   29
Carnegie Mellon   4-1      24   9
Kenyon      4-1-2   20   37
Transylvania   5-0      223   265
Ohio Wesleyan   3-3      9   24
Ohio Northern   4-2-1   79   82
Case Western   3-2-1   39   4
Capital      4-2      70   45
Oberlin      3-2-1   119   72
Marietta      4-1-1   127   112
Geneva      4-1      187   239

Two programs that can't afford a misstep are Transy and Geneva - those SOS YTD and future won't leave room for a mistake. SOS will change as the season progresses - I'm still not convinced the NCAC conference games are worthy of a high strength value.  For grins - side by side comparison of OAC and NCAC teams: top 4, middle three, bottom three (Massey rankings):

Rank   Team      Rank   Team
85   John Carroll   196   Kenyon
375   Ohio Northern   352   Ohio Wesleyan
427   Capital      447   Oberlin
449   Marietta      518   DePauw
         
496   Heidelberg      701   Allegheny
536   Otterbein      711   Denison
796   Mt Union      742   Wabash
         
840   Baldwin-Wallace   852   Wooster
858   Wilmington OH   853   Hiram
1120   Muskingum   1051   Wittenberg

[bestfancle]

Recapping the JCU vs. OWU game yesterday; that was exciting to watch.

JCU did a really good job the first half. I was even surprised of the splitting runs. The Senior, Lombardo, had the best game I have ever seen him play. OWU's first goal came in basically from a throw in, and was a fluke.

In the second half, JCU basically fell apart. I think the team will struggle with speed coming out of other team's midfield  players. Just like the Penn State-B and the Case game, JCU tends to let off the gas.

Blowing a 3-1 lead, to be down 4-3 is very tough. You have to give JCU credit for coming back and winning, most teams after blowing that head start wouldn't be able to stay on the field.

That might be a sure-fire lock for JCU to get an at-large bid. I think they will beat CMU, and should blow out Hiram. Even if they lost to CMU, and lost in the conference tournament. This JCU team with 2 or 3 blemishes would make the NCAA.

[PaulNewman]

Recapping the JCU vs. OWU game yesterday; that was exciting to watch.

JCU did a really good job the first half. I was even surprised of the splitting runs. The Senior, Lombardo, had the best game I have ever seen him play. OWU's first goal came in basically from a throw in, and was a fluke.

In the second half, JCU basically fell apart. I think the team will struggle with speed coming out of other team's midfield  players. Just like the Penn State-B and the Case game, JCU tends to let off the gas.

Blowing a 3-1 lead, to be down 4-3 is very tough. You have to give JCU credit for coming back and winning, most teams after blowing that head start wouldn't be able to stay on the field.

That might be a sure-fire lock for JCU to get an at-large bid. I think they will beat CMU, and should blow out Hiram. Even if they lost to CMU, and lost in the conference tournament. This JCU team with 2 or 3 blemishes would make the NCAA.

CMU on the road will be tough, but otherwise I agree entirely. Wins over Kenyon and OWU will make JCU a virtual lock barring a complete collapse.  And at this juncture, JCU and CMU would appear to be the only GL teams who might feel confident about a Pool C. 

[PaulNewman]

(Paul Newman - was posting this while you were making your comment)

Identity.  What defines a program, what defines the current team?  What changes a program/team's identity?  When is a event a one-off, an aberration - and when is an event a signal of an emerging trend?  My take-away from this weekend is that there are many identities in flux - at least for this season. Whether they are signs of larger changes, whether they are mere aberrations three weeks into the season - we'll soon find out.

Great questions, Domino, and our friend RH has chimed in on these in the past as well.

I would say....A very good, very stable coaching situation, and one where if there is any turnover, the keys to the car are handed to a well-groomed asst and/or alum who get the program and the program values/expectations.  Martin is obviously the exemplar here.  Russo at Williams was another.  The guy at Trinity.  The Messiah deal.

I think the selective admissions challenge is overrated.  Otherwise, Williams and Amherst wouldn't be such historical powerhouses, and we wouldn't see schools like Haverford, Chicago, etc have their days.

Different situations also have different hurdles in terms of what is the next ceiling to break through.  Kenyon is stuck at the Sweet 16/Elite 8.  Oberlin is trying to break into consistent challenger threat category. 

You have to get good players and players with the right attitude who fit with the culture (speaking of which, strong programs need a culture/identity).  Good coaches have to understand the appeal of their situation/school.  Is it the coach?  Is it the school?  Is it something else? 

I've mentioned Shapiro and Souders a lot as two of the most successful relatively new/young coaches.  They inspire a culture with their programs and teams, and in a way that is very positive and not angry, sullen, passive-aggressive.  They are leaders but without making it about them.  They get how to grow a support and alumni base.  They get that it's about the student-athletes while holding their athletes to high standards...and I'd imagine they would do most anything for a kid whether it's the two-time All-American or the last player on the bench.

And then there's luck...a a good bounce here or there can make the difference in a Final Four or no Final Four...and the good luck (with its success) then feeds the very things a program is striving for in terms of confidence, vibe, culture, expectations, etc.

[Domino1195]

(Paul Newman - was posting this while you were making your comment)

Identity.  What defines a program, what defines the current team?  What changes a program/team's identity?  When is a event a one-off, an aberration - and when is an event a signal of an emerging trend?  My take-away from this weekend is that there are many identities in flux - at least for this season. Whether they are signs of larger changes, whether they are mere aberrations three weeks into the season - we'll soon find out.

You have to get good players and players with the right attitude who fit with the culture (speaking of which, strong programs need a culture/identity).  Good coaches have to understand the appeal of their situation/school.  Is it the coach?  Is it the school?  Is it something else? 

Bold and Italics mine, words provided by PN. 


Culture.  I've thought winning cultures are easy to join - the hard work - defining a program's identity - is done for prospective players before they hit campus. Coaches and returning players - their job is to make sure the next round of recruits upholds it.  With super strong traditions- OWU - alumni will get involved should there be an aberration. When strong cultured programs hit a bump - they have that intangible to fall back upon - to get them back on track.  That "could" be an advantage for NCAC schools - many have a culture that can be used to motivate them.


Good Players.  Technical, athletic, fast and strong.  You see these attributes when you recruit them, but will those qualities translate to a successful college player?  All the top teams are all pretty good at bring in good players. And emerging programs vying to be included in the top tier must have three-four years of solid recruits that get results, that cause a potential recruit to pause and think: "Hmmmmmm."


What is the essential component of a successful translation of a good HS player?  Attitude.  The good player question is settled once you are recruited to a top program.  A top program, historically speaking, can and will "help" a good player understand what winning attitude is - what is required to succeed in the program and get playing time. Emerging programs - here's the rub. The culture does not exist and it can crumble as quickly as it started to ascend. It's like you need a rocket engine to break the gravitational pull.

[Ommadawn]

Great stuff, PaulNewman and Domino!  Superior coaching and institutional support are entry level criteria for developing a nationally prominent program--necessary, but definitely not sufficient!  I like PaulNewman's addition of Lady Luck, an elusive and unquantifiable element that can affect one's life course in so many ways.  The following article seems relevant to some of the issues being discussed (sorry for the lack of GL content):

http://csri-jiia.org/old/documents/publications/research_articles/2015/JIIA_2015_8_6_Factors_in_Success_NCAA_DIII.pdf

Of course, "mission-driven" institutions (especially one located in PA  have fared better in soccer than in D3 sports across the board (i.e., Directors' Cup).

[Domino1195]

A quality that might be defined as "something else" - that I should have included as an essential personal trait - is decision making. Having incredibly quick feet can be negated by taking a third touch; a sloppy pass is negated by a quick decision to get the ball near the open player. Quickness of play, along with good decision making, is what great teams consistently do.

CMU last night one and two-touched passes from the back line to the midfield to the forwards. Simply and effective. Turned the game off at half - saw what I needed to see. The JCU - CMU game will be very interesting. After factoring in physicality - if one team isn't prepared for the battle that will be required to win this game - quickness of play will decide this match.

I posted earlier about GL teams that couldn't afford bumps based on SOS - Transy and Geneva. Geneva just got jolted. I think it's a tight three-way race with Geneva, Grove City and Thomas More. Their head-to-head match-ups will be a blast.

[bestfancle]

OAC News:

POW: Danny Ruple, Sophomore Forward, Baldwin Wallace, 4 goals and 3 assists in two games against Wooster and Bluffton University.

What is interesting about Ruple, is he may be the best pure goal scorer in the conference. His team around him isn't very good but he will be double marked throughout most of the OAC regular season. Local kid, could have gone to a ton of division 3 and division 2 schools, but chose to stay in his hometown and attend BW.

Standings (non-conference):
1. John Carroll (6-0)
2. Heidelberg (4-0)
3. Marietta (4-1-1)
t-4. Capital (4-2)
t-4. Otterbein (4-2)
6. ONU (4-2-1)
7. Wilmington (3-3-1)
t-8. BW (3-4)
t-8. Mount Union (3-4)
10. Muskingum (2-4-1)

Games to watch:

9/20:
Bethany at Marietta
Hiram at JCU

9/21:
Heidelberg at Kenyon

9/23:
Capital at Thomas More
Washington and Jefferson at Marietta
Rose-Hulman at ONU

9/24:
JCU at Carnegie Mellon

This week is obviously capstoned by that JCU game on Sunday. A very good week from the OAC, even the lesser teams got a couple of wins under their belts. Don't sleep on Heidelberg; I mentioned them earlier as having a good freshman class. They also have a young coach, and if you have a chance, check out that game vs. Kenyon.

JCU game at CMU is the toughest game on paper they have left. I would argue that the CMU game is only 2nd to the OAC Championship match for John Carroll. Hiram on Wednesday is always a game JCU seems to win, and then they have Fredonia next week before Conference play starts.

[4samuy]

I also believe CMU can become a pretty good team.  Being a fan of the UAA,  I look at their schedule and 4 of their wins are against teams that are currently sitting below .500 win %.  Yes, they are beating the teams in front of them, but It'll be interesting to see CMU develop as the tough UAA schedule gets started.

[TableMax]

OAC currently 17 games over 500 pre conference...  NCAC under 500...   

[Domino1195]

One note: Geneva lost at Fredonia:

RankSchool
Prev.
W-L-T
1John Carroll University DA Case Western Reserve University 1-0; DH Ohio Wesleyan University 5-4;

1
6-0-0
2Carnegie Mellon University DH Westminster College (Pa.) 4-0;
3
4-1-0
3Transylvania University DH Centre College 2-0;
5
4-0-0
4Kenyon College TA Marietta College 0-0; TH Thomas More College 1-1;
2
4-1-2
5Geneva College DH University of Mount Union 1-0; DH SUNY Fredonia 2-1;
4
5-0-0
6Ohio Northern University LH Ohio Wesleyan University 2-3; DA Oberlin College 3-1;
8
4-2-1
7Capital University DH Denison University 2-0; LA Washington & Lee University 0-4;
7
4-2-0
8Oberlin College TA Grove City College 1-1; LH Ohio Northern University 1-3;
6
3-2-1
9Marietta College TH Kenyon College 0-0; LA Case Western Reserve University 1-2;
NR
4-1-1
10Grove City College TH Oberlin College 1-1; LA Otterbein University 0-3;
9
3-1-2Also receiving votes: Ohio Wesleyan University (10), Case Western Reserve University (9), Hanover College (3), Penn State-Behrend (2), Heidelberg University (1), Otterbein University (1)

[Ryan Harmanis]

No real complaints about the Top 4, although Transy at #3 seems a bit high given the weak schedule so far.  Having said that, I would love to know who votes on these things, given the obvious problems:

• They misstated Geneva's record.  Counting their loss would have dropped them, although the rest of the voting makes you wonder.
• Otterbein pastes Grove City 3-0, and Grove City drops one spot.
• Marietta, unranked last week, jumps into the rankings on the back of a week where they...won zero games and pulled out a draw in a game where they were outshot 25-5. They also lost to Case, who is unranked despite losses only to John Carroll and Calvin.
• Ohio Northern loses at home against Ohio Wesleyan and jumps two spots.
• OWU remains unranked, even with a win over ONU and close losses to teams ranked #2, #5, and #9 in the national rankings.

On the bright side, this poll doesn't matter in the grand scheme.  With conference play starting soon, not sure Transy, Grove City, or Geneva will drop much here.  But their SOS is going to be rough for the real rankings.

I'd probably go (1) John Carroll; (2) Kenyon; (3) Carnegie Mellon; (4) Capital; (5) OWU; (6) Geneva; (7)  Transy; (8) ONU; (9) Case; (10) Oberlin