2017 Great Lakes Region

[Domino1195]

The GL is messing with our heads. Last year I preached parity. This year the word is: inconsistency. Pass or play. Only those who know who Betty White's husband was will get the reference.

Watched GC vs PSU-B tonight. Stats don't come close to telling the story. If time of possession were tracked GC might be 60-65 percent. But they needed a last minute goal to win. GC loses to Otterbein, ties ONU, needs a PK to beat Wooster. BW comes back from two goals down to beat Wooster 3-2 in OT. Otterbein loses at Hiram after winning at Hanover. Hanover beats Thomas More at TM, who loses at ONU but ties Kenyon at Kenyon.

Will the real Slim Shady please stand up . . .

[bestfancle]

No real complaints about the Top 4, although Transy at #3 seems a bit high given the weak schedule so far.  Having said that, I would love to know who votes on these things, given the obvious problems:

• They misstated Geneva's record.  Counting their loss would have dropped them, although the rest of the voting makes you wonder.
• Otterbein pastes Grove City 3-0, and Grove City drops one spot.
• Marietta, unranked last week, jumps into the rankings on the back of a week where they...won zero games and pulled out a draw in a game where they were outshot 25-5. They also lost to Case, who is unranked despite losses only to John Carroll and Calvin.
• Ohio Northern loses at home against Ohio Wesleyan and jumps two spots.
• OWU remains unranked, even with a win over ONU and close losses to teams ranked #2, #5, and #9 in the national rankings.

On the bright side, this poll doesn't matter in the grand scheme.  With conference play starting soon, not sure Transy, Grove City, or Geneva will drop much here.  But their SOS is going to be rough for the real rankings.

I'd probably go (1) John Carroll; (2) Kenyon; (3) Carnegie Mellon; (4) Capital; (5) OWU; (6) Geneva; (7)  Transy; (8) ONU; (9) Case; (10) Oberlin

Yes, it seems like there is not a lot of attention being payed (paid?) by voters. OWU proved (in a lost, albeit) that they can hang with JCU and others. Not a doubt in my mind that they should be getting attention. Case is another team with "quality" losses, if you can call it that.

What I did notice is leaving off Heidelburg, who I believe should be put in the Top 10. I am more impressed by their play than Marietta, but one of those two should be in. I honestly do not believe ONU is a top 2 seed in the OAC this year. They will finish number 3 or 4 (behind JCU, Capital, and Heidelburg or Marietta) in conference, and if it's 3 I could see them upsetting the 2 seed in playoffs, because Ridenour is one of the best coaches at film study. In playoffs, ONU is a different animal, each player knows the proper footing and tendencies of their opponents.

And you're right! This poll means nothing, especially for individual teams, although when it comes down to bids at the end of the year it does help conferences (like my OAC) who are historically a 1-team conference (with the exception of last year).

[Domino1195]

And here's why Heidelberg shouldn't be in the top 10 - the lowest SoS of any ranked or RV team per the latest coach's poll.
Defining moments for GL teams for next week's rankings:

   
• Not going to say Transy's game vs TM tonight is a must win - they have the inside track to win the Heartland - but they have zero room for error in conference play, given their current and future SoS.  Right now the Berry and Centre wins are good wins, but that can change.  Heartland will be a one-bid conference.
• Rose-Hulman vs DePauw - the Slim Shady Game of the Day. RH's record is not that impressive considering the teams they have played: DePauw has had a much more challenging schedule to date and will be the strongest opponent RH has had this year.
• PrAC got more interesting with Geneva's recent stumble.  Away games at PSU-B and Allegheny in the next 7 days. TM has statement games vs Transy and Capital this week, and they have a much stronger current and future SoS compared to Geneva. A win or draw by Grove City over Carnegie Mellon could do wonders for their SoS.  I see this as a dead-heat right now with a small chance for second bid (TM or GC with the outside chance - Geneva has to win the conference to get a bid)
• OAC - this may be the highest future SoS that conference has had within the conference in years. Again, SoS changes as the year progresses, but if thing stay close to where they are now the OAC could get two bids.  As noted in other posts, JCU has to have a complete melt-down for them to miss the post season. They may be able to withstand a loss in the conference championship game and still make it in, as ONU did last year
• NCAC - two horse race - OWU and Kenyon. Reverse of the OAC situation, the SoS within the NCAC may be the lowest it has been in years.  DePauw and Oberlin can help with Oberlin beating Case, Depauw beating RH. Otherwise Denison has TM, Allegheny has Geneva, Wooster has Capital, Hiram has JCU. Results in these games can boost the conference SoS nicely

School	Prev.	W-L-T	SoS	SSF
John Carroll University	1	6-0-0	15	26
Carnegie Mellon University	3	4-1-0	29	7
Transylvania University	5	4-0-0	224	266
Kenyon College	2	4-1-2	14	33
Geneva College	4	5-0-0*	199	239
Ohio Northern University	8	4-2-1	70	80
Capital University	7	4-2-0	63	42
Oberlin College	6	3-2-1	110	72
Marietta College	NR	4-1-1	128	100
Grove City College	9	3-1-2	123	159
Received Votes:	SoS	SSF
Ohio Wesleyan University (10)	8	25
Case Western Reserve University (9)	36	1
Hanover College (3)	130	240
Penn State-Behrend (2)	116	227
Heidelberg University (1)	269	140
Otterbein University (1)	122	91

[Christan Shirk]

September 20, 2017
Significant Digits, Vol. 1, Issue 1
The Great Lakes Region by the Numbers
By D3soccer.com contributor


It's new; it's different. It may be a one-off, or it may become a re-occurring column. Check out Significant Digits: the Great Lakes Region by the Numbers, and let us know what you think.

[bestfancle]

JCU routs Hiram 4-0 at home, as expected. They only played starters for about 50% of the game. Should be rested and able to give it a good run this weekend at CMU.

[TableMax]

Nice win by Oberlin over BW. 

[TableMax]

And OWU takes down Case 1-0.  Stats show it was pretty even. Tough place to play and win no doubt. The Tommies must be pretty good.

Kenyon should put a beating on Heidelberg today.

[PaulNewman]

September 20, 2017
Significant Digits, Vol. 1, Issue 1
The Great Lakes Region by the Numbers
By D3soccer.com contributor


It's new; it's different. It may be a one-off, or it may become a re-occurring column. Check out Significant Digits: the Great Lakes Region by the Numbers, and let us know what you think.

I thought it was great.  Clever, interesting, well done.  Whether can be sustained is another matter, as is whether the idea can or could be expanded beyond Great Lakes, which would increase overall appeal.  Whoever did it, whether an existing contributor or new one, should definitely be encouraged to be an ongoing contributor.

[Domino1195]

Sunset is 7:31 - going to start the second OT after this time.

[TableMax]

The OAC looks deep. Berg takes down Kenyon.  I predict OWU wins NCAC. 

[Ryan Harmanis]

OWU is hard to evaluate right now, as they're young and banged up.  Down half the starting lineup due to injury yesterday but did a good job to grind out a win (and a first shutout).  If they can get healthy and the younger guys keep improving, they have a chance.  They're 4-3, but three close losses to top 10 teams, two on the road, shows they can compete.  But I'd still make Kenyon the slight favorite, assuming they get out of this funk.  Lots of experience over there and, despite the performance today, they've been better in the back.

I was impressed with Heidelberg.  Lots of team speed.  Don't think they're on John Carroll's level but in that second tier with Capital and ONU.  Kenyon looked a step off the pace for the portion I watched (after it was 2-1 Kenyon).

[TableMax]

2nd tier takes down Kenyon at home.  Kenyon 1-2-1 against OAC. OAC record not bad right now.  Deserves credit.  Yep. 

Look at overall and head to head matchups.  It's telling in 2017. 

[Domino1195]

Watched most of the Kenyon-Berg game. I commented after the Otterbein game that I was unsure about Kenyon. Uncharacteristic mistakes in the back - Berg's first goal yet another example. Several through-balls allowed Berg to get behind the back 4, and one v one dribblers had more success than you expect from a Kenyon team.

But offense is nonexistent. Woo Jeon and Myers, Carmona occasionally. That's it. Purposeless crosses to no one, none of that dynamic combination play near the box. Stagnant -  zero quickness on the ball. Maybe a funk, maybe an identity crisis.

Berg tried to give Kenyon two goals in the first half - goal line save by a defender and a ball skied onto the baseball field.

[bestfancle]

A huge win for Berg. I said they look good, and that game half-proves it. Kenyon honestly looks worse as the season goes on. I could easily see OWU winning the conference.

Looking towards the OAC, it has to have the highest in-conference SoS it has had in the last 10 years. JCU, Capital, Heidelberg look great. Marietta solid. And ONU gets much better in conference once the team gets better film study and familiar opponents. It will be an exciting in-conference season.

[PaulNewman]

Tough to be a Kenyon loyalist right now.  Let me say up front that I have zero inside info on what is going on (or if anything is going on).  The current seniors were frosh back when I had a real personal stake, and while I know Myers, Wynn, Jeon, O'Neill, etc are fantastic young men, I don't have any ties to them.  All the guys who were seniors when these guys were frosh are now well into their post-college paths and while still caring about Kenyon and the program I'd guess I follow the games (and certainly the dialogue on this site) far more than they do.

At any rate, something does not feel right.  On the one hand, the team did lose a special class of seniors last year and certainly that shows.  A drop-off, as well as an adjustment period, were inevitable.  That said, Kenyon now has more blemishes  in just the first couple of weeks of this 2017 campaign than I think any of the three previous editions AT THE END OF THE SEASON which included deep playoff runs.  And it's not like those blemishes came in an early season weekend versus Messiah/Rowan or Chicago/Calvin.  And it's not like even with the loss of last year's class that the talent cupboards are bare.  Yes, perhaps the OAC is not just better than I thought, but much better, but still, Kenyon clearly has been the stronger team each of the last three games, and they have two draws and a big fat loss to show for that.  Today they looked flat, gave up an early goal, and then, of course, relied on Myers to bring them back as he scored twice to put them ahead.  Kenyon would have the ball with good possession in the final third for several minutes at a time, and repeatedly end up stretched such that the 12-15 seconds Heidelberg had the ball they had enormous space and players on through balls or over the top to go in one v one vs the GK.  Heidelberg actually blew at least two or three of those chances.  Kenyon had a breakaway with a striker one v one versus the Heidelberg GK with plenty of space and did not finish.  15 seconds later Heidelberg drew a PK and tied things up.  Kenyon yet again almost scored several times in OT but did not, leaving the announcer, who is the asst SID, to say something like "Kenyon's best chance here is a header from Myers."  Mind you, Myers was a 1st or 2nd team AA, as a centerback!  He's always been good for the offense, but having him scoring on headers as your primary source of scoring is a problem, not to mention that moving him so far forward compromises the defense.  The announcer, earlier in the game while Kenyon was doing little while down 1-0 in the first half commented that the vibe or energy just was not there as compared to recent years.  You know it's not great when the announcer is referencing names like Justice, Carney and Ernst from the 2014 team.

So, yes, Kenyon is not as strong this year.  Yes, some of the OAC teams may be a little better than thought.  But Kenyon edged CMU and played JCU even and could have won that one.  There appears to be more going on.  The vibe isn't right, and I don't know what that is about.  My GUESS is that getting so close the last three years wears on a program and a coaching staff (Kenyon only has two coaches compared to some other top programs have 4 or 5 coaches).  Maybe a hangover effect...possibly something bigger than that.  I'll have to check, but the other program that comes to mind as struggling after coming close but not fully breaking through is F&M, and if my short-memory is OK I think F&M also is struggling.  This is when the coaching and leadership at the top matters.  No one can question how far Brown has brought the program....a program that perennially was having losing seasons before his arrival in 2006, but he, too, in addition to the players, has to get over the gut-wrenching NCAA exits of the last three years.  As I mentioned perhaps in the NESCAC thread, a bounce of the ball and a bit of good or bad fortune can cause a dynamic of its own, and what I'm expressing may reflect nothing more than that...but THAT is still something, with real effects, that will require a lot of effort to counteract.  I don't want to be overly dramatic, but this isn't a program with 10-15 consecutive years of being a top-tier program, and this season and certainly next season could be huge in determining whether the Lords remain in the discussion as a top-tier program or gradually fade into more of a second tier deal.  I'd also inject the caveat that one can probably count on less than one hand the number of programs that has sustained an unbroken record of success (perhaps allowing for one or two off years) over the last 10-15 years.  So it's not a crime if a program can't do it, but certainly to do it requires a ton of effort, planning, and a special type of leadership.

As a loyalist, there are reasons Kenyon should remain strong...including the overall strength of the school and its appeal, a brand new field, one of the best athletic complexes in D3, and momentum where just one example was a very recent anonymous, single gift to the school of 75 million.  The soccer program has to be an extension of the school and the school's overall strengths and not a program that tries to excel in spite of the school's mission.  Again, there may be no "there there," but I do know Kenyon has work to do to match or exceed other top D3 soccer programs in terms of support, alumni base, and loyalty that goes both ways and builds over the years rather than diminishing over time.  Continuous positive energy and a visceral sense of the team being an immediate family inside of an even larger loyal and dedicated family are some of fuel necessary to keep success going.