2017 Great Lakes Region

[Domino1195]

OAC News:

POW - Juan Rivas, FWD, Otterbein - 3 goals and an assist in a 4-1 week. His 2nd hat trick of the year.

Standings (non-conference):
1. Heidelberg (6-0)
2. John Carroll (8-0-1)
3. Otterbein (6-2)
4. ONU (6-2-1)
5. Marietta (5-2-1)
6. Capital (5-3)
7. Wilmington (5-3-1)
8. BW (4-5)
9. Mount Union (3-4)
10. Muskingum (2-5-1)

JCU almost "Pulled a Kenyon" tonight. Couldn't find the net in the first half missing Lombardo. Ended up polishing off fredonia 2-0.

This week begins the OAC regular season.

My Playoff Predictions (top-6 make it in OAC, with seeds 1 and 2 getting byes):

1. JCU - (9-0) - Should not be troubled in the conference.
2. Heidelberg - (7-1-1) - I expect a tie vs. ONU and a loss to JCU
3. ONU - (6-2-1) - Uncertainty will cost them an extra loss against another team.
4. Capital - (5-3-1) - Losses to the 3 teams above them and maybe a tie.
5. Otterbein - (5-4)
6. BW - (4-4-1) - I know, odd pick, but I think Ruple will cause trouble in the OAC.

Outside looking in: Marietta (4-5), Wilmington (2-7), Mount (1-6-2), Muskingum (0-9)

Watched JCU until they scored; had Heidelberg on for most of the night while watching Marietta on a second screen.  Defense is what is needed to make the conference tournament. While Kenyon's offense continues to frustrate our friend PN, they are getting results from their defense.

Marietta's senior GK is 5-0-1 - no goals conceded. Frosh keeper was in the nets for both losses.  BW concedes a lot of goals - GK can be baited to coming too far outside his 6 (unnecessarily IMO). We'll see them head to head in Sat. If Marietta continues with their patient counter-attack they should win 2-0 min.

Wilmington over Hanover. Hmmmm. I expected Hanover to go through a rebuilding year - but that early season win at TM impressed me. At Manchester Sat - saw, again last night, how frustrating it is to play against them - sit in deep and wait. Won't be surprised if Manchester nicks it 1-0, but if Hanover gets on top early it might be 3-0 or more. Need to see if Manchester can attack if they need to - so far, conceding first means game over.

But there's Wilmington with their best non-conference record in years. No shame in their losses to TM and Maryville - Denison is improving - tough non conference schedule may have prepared them for a weaker NCAC conference. I expect a reality check on Sat at JCU - but I will be interested to see how they play. And Denison hosting TM today will tell us how far Denison has come.

Capital finds out A LOT about their young team today at OWU and Sat vs Otterbein. Looks like the rain holds off today - grass not Cap's best surface. Today's game is won at the midfield - in Cap's losses the midfield has been overrun and submissive.

AMCC - those traditional middle table teams are interesting this year. Mt  Aloyious's record exposed yesterday, but Franciscan and Medaille might be real challengers to "box of chocolates" PSU-B. Very unimpressive result vs D'Youville yesterday.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Frustrating night for OWU, losing 1-0 to Capital after conceding a poor goal against the run of play.  Tough lesson, but OWU never got out of second gear until it was too late.  Capital was happy to concede territory and possession, but rather than jump on that OWU just waltzed upfield in the first half.  Pace was a bit better in the second, but it only takes one counterattack.  Capital player tried a speculative shot from distance that was partially blocked, OWU keeper came out, another forward beat the keeper to the ball and tapped into an open net.  OWU created a few more chances and missed a sitter with a couple minutes to go, but couldn't find the net.  Not a conference loss, but could be a killer for Pool C.

Mostly disappointed with the lack of fire.  OWU had to know Cap would come out fired up, given that Cap always gets up for this game and they got spanked last time out.  Considering Capital had conceded 9 goals in their last three games, I had hoped to see a killer instinct.  Just wasn't there.

Cap played hard and showed some pace going forward.  I'm guessing Yost made some moves to be tighter at the back, which paid off, as they limited OWU's clear-cut chances.  They'll need to do more to challenge John Carroll in the OAC, as I don't think they can afford to sit as deep against JCU as they did today.

At this point, seems like the Great Lakes has John Carroll and Carnegie, then a bunch of decent teams.  Also, looks like the OAC is probably better than the NCAC this year.  I'd still favor Kenyon and OWU over any non-JCU team in a one-off, but the OAC looks to have a stronger overall group at the top with Cap, ONU, Heidelberg, and Otterbein.

[Domino1195]

Cap-OWU: A well fought battle by both sides last night. Capital played their best game of the year IMO - not only based on how well the three lines stayed connected and how well they communicated with each other but by the competitiveness they demonstrated. The 50/50 battles were contested and Cap won their fair share; "second balls" were challenged and many won. The forwards backed up their speed with incredible effort - speed with a purpose as they pressed better than any other time this season.

These  efforts provide the moments necessary for a counter-attacking to get their opportunities on goal. Against teams like OWU you may only get 2-3 quality chances - have cash in on one, which they did. 

[bestfancle]

At this point, seems like the Great Lakes has John Carroll and Carnegie, then a bunch of decent teams.  Also, looks like the OAC is probably better than the NCAC this year.  I'd still favor Kenyon and OWU over any non-JCU team in a one-off, but the OAC looks to have a stronger overall group at the top with Cap, ONU, Heidelberg, and Otterbein.

I just don't see how you come up with this conclusion.

Kenyon: 1-2-1 against OAC (1-1-1 removing JCU). They tied Marietta, who might not even be top 4 OAC this year.

OWU: 1-2 against OAC (1-1 removing JCU) Now I understand OWU, Capital had to play a great game, but it was away to OWU.

I would not be taking Kenyon in a game vs. Heidelberg or Capital. OWU might make a little more sense, but still it's far from obvious.

[TableMax]

2017
OAC vs. NCAC....18-8-1...Last year was 500 ...



OAC 28 games over 500 already in 2017........NCAC 3 games UNDER 500 for all games pre-conference...

Cap 7-0 vs. the NCAC last 2 years...

[PaulNewman]

At this point, seems like the Great Lakes has John Carroll and Carnegie, then a bunch of decent teams.  Also, looks like the OAC is probably better than the NCAC this year.  I'd still favor Kenyon and OWU over any non-JCU team in a one-off, but the OAC looks to have a stronger overall group at the top with Cap, ONU, Heidelberg, and Otterbein.

I just don't see how you come up with this conclusion.

Kenyon: 1-2-1 against OAC (1-1-1 removing JCU). They tied Marietta, who might not even be top 4 OAC this year.

OWU: 1-2 against OAC (1-1 removing JCU) Now I understand OWU, Capital had to play a great game, but it was away to OWU.

I would not be taking Kenyon in a game vs. Heidelberg or Capital. OWU might make a little more sense, but still it's far from obvious.

I know you OAC guys are feeling pumped up, and rightfully so, but very, very few people on this board would pick against Kenyon or OWU in a NCAA 1st or 2nd round match versus Cap, Heidelberg, Otterbein, Marietta, etc. They also would be favored over ONU and close to even odds versus JCU.  If memory serves, an OAC team has not won a single NCAA game since 2012.  Kenyon and OWU have played in huge tournament games. Kenyon sucks right now but they are still better than any OAC team not named JCU. Maybe watch that game again.

[bestfancle]

At this point, seems like the Great Lakes has John Carroll and Carnegie, then a bunch of decent teams.  Also, looks like the OAC is probably better than the NCAC this year.  I'd still favor Kenyon and OWU over any non-JCU team in a one-off, but the OAC looks to have a stronger overall group at the top with Cap, ONU, Heidelberg, and Otterbein.

I just don't see how you come up with this conclusion.

Kenyon: 1-2-1 against OAC (1-1-1 removing JCU). They tied Marietta, who might not even be top 4 OAC this year.

OWU: 1-2 against OAC (1-1 removing JCU) Now I understand OWU, Capital had to play a great game, but it was away to OWU.

I would not be taking Kenyon in a game vs. Heidelberg or Capital. OWU might make a little more sense, but still it's far from obvious.

I know you OAC guys are feeling pumped up, and rightfully so, but very, very few people on this board would pick against Kenyon or OWU in a NCAA 1st or 2nd round match versus Cap, Heidelberg, Otterbein, Marietta, etc. They also would be favored over ONU and close to even odds versus JCU.  If memory serves, an OAC team has not won a single NCAA game since 2012.  Kenyon and OWU have played in huge tournament games. Kenyon sucks right now but they are still better than any OAC team not named JCU. Maybe watch that game again.

I was at that game, and I said it was even. The thing is, JCU keeps getting results and looking better, while Kenyon is losing to subpar teams.

Loss to Heidelberg, with ties to Marietta and Thomas More before that is just not good. At the start of the season, these results could be viewed as one-offs, but they have been repeating stale results.

If you were ranking the top teams from both conferences, Kenyon is 4th or 5th (or even 6th), it's that simple. OWU looks much better than Kenyon, JCU looks much better than Kenyon.

Kenyon looks a lot closer to Capital, Marietta, and Heidelberg than they do to JCU. Heck, even ONU is getting more credit than Kenyon right now (even though I think that is fluff). Scoring goals is just as important as every other aspect of the game.

This isn't anti-NCAC, the NCAC is better every year in recent history. I would bet the NCAC will be stronger than the OAC next year too. Just on a team by team basis, Kenyon doesn't look elite (while they look great at times) and the results have been poor.

[PaulNewman]

bestfancle, maybe we are missing each other.

You said Kenyon looked even with JCU. 

There is no question that Kenyon has had disappointing results.  The results are what they are.  That said, I watched all of those games.  Marietta and TMC were not competitive.  Heidelberg was more so, but Kenyon still dominated possession 80/20.  They haven't been scoring but that can go in waves too.  Perhaps you're not remembering Jeon missing open nets from a 8 and 6 against JCU.  JCU didn't score until late.  Based on results, Kenyon is about where you suggested but you have them 1-2 slots too low.  But based on the eye test, they are still better than all of those teams except for JCU, and much better than some of them.  Case just beat Lycoming.  Is that result real?  Kenyon beat Case and with a 24 to 8 shot mismatch.  And oh yeah, Kenyon beat CMU....assuming we're going purely by results.

[TableMax]

2017 results should matter more than "past performance" and Endowments..   

The NCAA should take 2-3 teams from the OAC this year...

The NCAC should get one......

Pretty obvious..

[Domino1195]

Looking at GL conferences after most have finished their non-conference schedule.  Using Massey to rank teams, compare to preseason expectations and look ahead at the potential paths to the NCAA's. 


OAC - heading into conference play this weekend:

   
• JCU - all games against the top tier are away except ONU.  Wins on the road increase SoS by a factor of 1.25 - all road results against these teams only solidify JCU's position as a NCAA lock.
• Note the SoS for Capital and JCU - their road schedules are tougher and therefore their SoS stronger. Capital is one of the bubble teams that could land a Pool C bid.
• Heidelberg - needs the conference title or the conference tournament to reach the post season. OAC followers are all too familiar with the 17-4 JCU team that didn't get a bid - lost that to Heidelberg. They could be 14-2 before the OAC tourney, win 1, lose one - 15-3 - and not make the post season because of SoS.

Team	Record	SoS	SSF	Preseason	Away
John Carroll	8-0-1	14	20	1	@Heidelberg, Capital, Marietta, Otterbein
Heidelberg	7-0-0	212	110	NR	@ONU, Marietta
Ohio Northern	7-2-1	98	60	2	@Otterbein, JCU
Capital	6-3-0	41	30	3	@ONU, Heidelberg
Otterbein	6-2-0	157	74	5	@Capital, Heidelberg, Marietta
Marietta	6-2-1	143	77	4	@Capital, ONU
Mt Union	4-4-0	81	50	6	@Heidelberg, Marietta, JCU
Wilmington OH	6-3-1	232	149
Baldwin-Wallace	4-5-1	191	117
Muskingum	2-6-1	282	178

[Domino1195]

NCAC - each team with one conference game on the books:

   
• Kenyon has one of the "top" tier games away - all else are at home.
• OWU not only has the majority of top-tier games away, they still have a road contest at Thomas More. Depending on how the NCAC shapes up - the 4 teams that qualify for the NCAC tourney - OWU could be a legit Pool C candidate due to that SoS.  Last year made it with a 10-3-2 record while NOT making their own NCAC tournament.
• Oberlin also with a tough non-conference game remaining at Case; not seeing them make the top 4.

Team	Record	SoS	SSF	Preseason	Away
Kenyon	6-2-2	26	33	1	@OWU
Ohio Wesleyan	5-4-0	2	26	2	@Oberlin, TM, DePauw, Wabash, Denison
Denison	4-5-0	20	34	6	@Kenyon, Wabash
Oberlin	4-4-1	92	75	3	@Case, Denison, Kenyon, DePauw
Wabash	7-2-0	284	188	3	@Kenyon, Oberlin, DePauw
DePauw	3-4-1	87	73	5	@Denison, Kenyon
Wooster	6-4-0	224	162	8
Allegheny	3-6-0	75	66	7
Hiram	2-7-0	96	80	8
Wittenberg	2-7-1	151	142	10

[Domino1195]

Heartland - right away those weak SoS tell you only one team, as last year, gets invited to the post season. Transy is in the same boat as Heidelberg - AQ or nothing. Transy's 4 game road swing starts after the home game against RH this weekend. After the third - at Hanover - the fourth is at Manchester.  This team has to guard against mental or emotional let-downs during that 4-game stretch. Imagine if they go 17-1 - undefeated conference play, win first playoff game and lose the final - and fail to get a bid. That would be a tough call for the committee, but they would have their pre-conference schedule to blame if it did

Team	Record	SoS	SSF	Preseason	Away
Transylvania	7-0-0	236	262	1	@Hanover, Manchester
Hanover	5-3-0	200	249	3	@RH
Rose-Hulman	5-3-1	180	244	2	@Transy
Manchester	4-5-0	163	238	5
Anderson	4-4-1	304	305	7
Mt St Joseph	2-5-1	231	271	4
Defiance	3-3-2	331	317	9
Earlham	0-8-0	150	251	6
Franklin	1-7-0	346	322	8
Bluffton	0-8-0	303	293	10

[Domino1195]

PRaC - I lean towards a one-bid view for this conference, but there are scenarios where TM could not win the AQ and sneak in with a Pool C. A home win vs OWU might have a big impact  - more that the conference games themselves, but winning against GC and Geneva, and an OWU win could do it for them.  Geneva and GC need the AQ - no Pool C for them.

Team	Record	SoS	SSF	Preseason	Away
Thomas More	4-4-1	38	109	2	@ GC
Grove City	4-2-1	76	145	3	@ W&J
Geneva	6-2-2	181	224	1	@GC, @TM
Wash & Jeff	7-2-0	254	237	4	@Geneva, @TM
Westminster	4-4-1	255	245	5	@ W&J, @TM
Bethany WV	4-5-0	244	241	6	@GC, @Geneva
Waynesburg	2-4-5	341	286	7
Thiel	3-5-0	335	290	9
St Vincent	3-6-1	369	316	8

[Domino1195]

AMCC - an obvious one-bid conference - but who will it be? Medaille has home games against all the top-tier teams - ball's in their possession as far as I'm concerned.  Fransciscan and PSU-B already at 2-0, Medaille at 1-1.

Team	Record	SoS	SSF	Preseason	Away
PSU-Behrend	7-3-0	168	213	1	@CMU, Medaille
Medaille	6-4-0	197	254	2
Franciscan	7-2-0	311	302	5	@Mt. Aly, PSU-B
Mt Aloysius	8-1-1	343	351	6	@PSU-B
La Roche	4-6-0	271	274	4
Pitt-Greensburg	2-6-1	328	359	9
D'Youville	1-7-1	245	311	8
PSU-Altoona	2-7-0	344	339	3
Pitt-Bradford	2-7-1	338	334	7
Hilbert	0-8-0	349	371	10

[SoccerFan2017]

Ball would be in Medailles possession but they've already dropped a game to Mt. Aloy and will have to run the table in the regular season for home field advantage

AMCC - an obvious one-bid conference - but who will it be? Medaille has home games against all the top-tier teams - ball's in their possession as far as I'm concerned.  Fransciscan and PSU-B already at 2-0, Medaille at 1-1.

Team	Record	SoS[/CENT	SSF	Preseason	Away
PSU-Behrend	7-3-0	168	213	1	@CMU, Medaille
Medaille	6-4-0	197	254	2
Franciscan	7-2-0	311	302	5	@Mt. Aly, PSU-B
Mt Aloysius	8-1-1	343	351	6	@PSU-B
La Roche	4-6-0	271	274	4
Pitt-Greensburg	2-6-1	328	359	9
D'Youville	1-7-1	245	311	8
PSU-Altoona	2-7-0	344	339	3
Pitt-Bradford	2-7-1	338	334	7
Hilbert	0-8-0	349	371	10