2017 Great Lakes Region

[Ryan Harmanis]

Domino - FYI, the home/away multiplier is no longer in effect.

As for who I'd favor, I have a short answer, a slightly longer answer, and novel that I won't write. Short answer: I've watched everyone play and, right now, I'd favor Kenyon and OWU over any non-JCU team from the OAC.  Doesn't mean they'd win, obviously - see OWU-Capital.

Slightly longer answer: I think some of us differ in the weight we give a few results.  For example, I give no weight to Kenyon-Marietta.  The only thing I took from it is that Kenyon sometimes struggles for goals - which I already knew.

Team-by-team, I'm setting Otterbein aside for now because Kenyon smoked them and they don't have a quality win just yet.

OWU beat ONU and looked better, on the road.  OWU lost to Cap, but were the better side even on an off-day.  OWU-Heidelberg is hypothetical, but Heidelberg's played one team besides Kenyon with a winning record...Anderson, who just lost 8-0 to ONU.  OWU has proven they can hang with top 10 teams.  Heidelberg can get there, but haven't done it for me yet.  As I said at the time, I was impressed with Heidelberg against Kenyon.  But very few teams go from 7-10 to world-beaters the next season.  I'm withholding judgment until I see more results against good teams.

As for Kenyon, I think it boils down to whether you think the "real" Kenyon is the one that beat Carnegie and played JCU pretty even or the one that lost to Heidelberg and tied Thomas More and Marietta.  I think Kenyon is much closer to the former than the latter.  They should have put Heidelberg to bed and they dominated TM and Marietta.  That, to me, looks more like a temporary funk than anything else.

You can't ignore results, but if I'm picking a favorite in a given game I'm not going off a random 20 minutes of soccer.  Look at it this way - John Carroll outplayed OWU for 75 minutes out of 110.  Yet OWU should have won that game (you should win any game you lead with under 10 to play).  If OWU had held on for that last two minutes, who would you pick in a rematch?  Right now, I'd still favor JCU.

[Ryan Harmanis]

For Pool C, looks like 6 teams with a chance.  JCU, barring a collapse, is a Pool C lock.  Same with Carnegie.  For the rest - ONU, Heidelberg, Capital, OWU, and Kenyon - a dominant conference season is probably required. 

In the OAC, Heidelberg's SOS isn't very good so they need a few more ranked wins and have a smaller margin for error.  Cap's SOS is pretty good and they have two likely ranked wins (St. Thomas & OWU).  But they already have 3 losses, two by blowout (although not sure how the committee views that).  ONU likely has zero ranked wins at the moment, so they need to beat the other top teams.

In the NCAC, Kenyon and OWU each only has one ranked win right now and might only have two more chances: each other and Wabash (if they keep it up).  That lowers the margin for error.  Kenyon will hope Heidelberg struggles to negate the head-to-head edge.  OWU will do the same for Cap, but has the edge over ONU.  Both teams should have good SOS numbers, and OWU's will be very high.  But the rest of the league struggling out of conference will hurt that too.

[bestfancle]

After the first night of OAC action, things were reasonably expected.

JCU (1-0) beats Wilmington 4-2. JCU did not look great, they were up 3-0 and looked like they had the game under control, then let up on the gas once again. I'm not sure if they underestimated Wilmington, but JCU has a very tough week ahead and will have to be more clinical and better defensively to avoid a blemish.

Heidelberg (1-0) beat Muskingum only 2-1. I think this might have been a wakeup call for Heidelberg. Musky is historically the worst team in the OAC. Interesting to note, Heidelburg made 0 saves, and only gave up a goal on a 1 on 1, so defensively they might have been alright.

Marietta (1-0) smashed BW 5-2. BW was up 2-0 at the start of the match, before Etta woke up and put a beating on them. BW might not have the OAC season I expected of them. Just so weak at the back.

Northern (1-0) beat mount 1-0, but were out shot and out cornered. Northern recieved a 2nd yellow near the end of the match and Mount deserved a tie.

Otterbein (1-0)beat Capital 1-0, which is really bad for Capital's chances at getting an at-large bid. Seems like otterbein played them tough, and Capital tried to come out and even the 2nd half but couldn't do it.


Tuesday Carroll Plays away at 'Berg at 4 PM and must be on their game. This is a huge game, both teams without a loss. In many ways this could decide the 1 seed for the OAC tournament.

[PaulNewman]

What in the heck is going on at Oberlin?  Lose to Wittenberg and stats say Witt actually dominated.

[Domino1195]

What in the heck is going on at Oberlin?  Lose to Wittenberg and stats say Witt actually dominated.

Using our previous discussion: I don't think the team has the attitude necessary to compete in the NCAC.  And the defensive players lost to graduation have not been adequately replaced.

[Domino1195]

GL top 12 - week ahead. Been dry as the desert last couple weeks - forecast calls for rain 6 consecutive days.  My back is killing me from reffing 6 games this week on concrete - I welcome the rain - but it may impact some games:

   
• JCU with two potentially challenging road tests.  Marietta beats ONU last year on their home field - rain will affect this field.  Heidelberg has played on turf and grass at home; 4pm start leads me to believe this will be on grass.
• CMU with a very difficult game at Brandeis - getting any points from this game will be a surprise.
• Kenyon has a schedule-maker's gift - a week off and one home game against a weaker Wabash team. Again - rain could impact the playing surface.
• Transy converts a beautiful FK from 20 yds out for the only goal vs RH.  Two games away against bottom-tier clubs - need to keep focused.
• Berg survived a less than dominant performance at Muskingum. Temps expected to be in the high 80's for Tuesday's JCU match - dry conditions. If they get a result here I'm going to become a believer.
• OWU saw how scrappy Wooster can be - I still think Wooster gets into the NCAC's tourney.  Speaking of scrappy - this week's game at TM will be just that.
• ONU battles to a 1-0 win at Mt. Union, who plays a tough, bunkered-in defensive style. ONU loses their starting GK to a RC suspension for their game at Otterbein. Capital on turf Sat night.
• Otterbein played a fantastic game at Capital Sat night.  Very disciplined and organized defense - got the early goal and defended excellently second half. Not sure how the back-up keeper affects Tuesday's game - but I would think 1-0 would be the final - just not sure who gets this one.
• Case "should" bag two wins this week.  N ina  ow let's play the games.
• Capital and Otterbein was a truly great college soccer game, played by two evenly matched teams. Sometimes we are tempted to find fault in a loss, especially here in Columbus, Ohio (I'm sure someone is complaining about the OSU football game from Sat as I write). But I thought both team executed their game plans very well. Wilmington's two goals against JCU caught my eye - Tuesday at Wilmington.
• Marietta has the SE Ohio derby before the JCU game this weekend.  The Muskies are going to give everyone who goes to New Concord a battle - DO NOT look past them Marietta . . .
• TM with three this week - that OWU game in the middle of two conference games certainly could be very distracting.  I think TM is the conference champion - and they don't want to lose home field for the conference tourney.  Nice break getting all three games at home.

Team	Record	SoS	SSF	Week Ahead
John Carroll	9-0-1	20	22	@Heidelberg, @ Marietta
Carnegie Mellon	7-1-1	19	6	PSU-B, @Brandeis
Kenyon	7-2-2	23	34	Wabash
Transylvania	8-0-0	231	260	@Mt. St Joseph, @Defiance
Heidelberg	8-0-0	223	103	JCU, Mt. Union
Ohio Wesleyan	6-4-0	11	25	@Thomas More, Allegheny
Ohio Northern	8-2-1	81	56	@Otterbein, Capital
Otterbein	7-2-0	108	65	ONU,  Muskingum
Case Western	4-5-1	4	2	Oberlin, @NYU
Capital	6-4-0	37	29	@Wilmington, @ONU
Marietta	7-2-1	142	73	@Muskingum, JCU
Thomas More	5-4-1	29	94	W&J, OWU, Waynesburg

[bestfancle]

https://boxcast.tv/view/mens-soccer-vs-john-carroll-856649

Link to the #4 JCU at #20 Heidelberg game for those interested!

[bestfancle]

JCU goes down 2-0 early, only to score one off the kickoff. Almost end of the first half Berg 2 - JCU 1.

[bestfancle]

Heidelberg beats JCU 3-2, could have been a tie.

The stream was bad quality, but 'Burg had two chances at the end to make it 4-2 when JCU started throwing guys forward.

Heidelberg's Freshman Corey Gilbert is from the same school at JCU's Captain Marinaro. Had to feel good to have such a good game against the high school teammate.

I'm not sure if Heidelberg jumps JCU in rankings, but it is close. Once again, JCU's schedule played against them. Heidelberg has a tough field that is good for their style of play (counter), JCU struggled to create. If I was JCU, I would be itching to meet these guys again. Relatively ameature move in my opinion to storm the pitch after a regular season in-conference win.

Credit to Heidelburg, they came in and executed a great gameplan! Things will be much more exciting during the OAC season now with both of these teams ranked for the foreseeable future.

It will be interesting to see where this puts the great lakes region rankings, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both OAC schools and CMU in the top 3...

[Domino1195]

Defensive consistency - or lack of - is the story line for GL teams.  Those playing the most consistently on defense are getting results.  Of teams I've seen this past week I'd say CMU, Otterbein and Heidelberg are doing what is needed to get W's.  Otterbein was fortunate not to concede last night - ONU did get past the outside backs a few times - but the central defense and GK kept it clean.  While ONU was missing their starting keeper, both header goals are on the backs.  When a 5'4" attacker scores a header goal . . . Heidelberg shows great patience on defense, waiting to get the counter. Two long balls down the middle, splitting the JCU CB's - two goals. 

Disciplined defensive teams will rarely win the "stat" sheet battles - time of possession is meaningless when playing these teams.  Even shots can be misleading - they do not tell you if these were quality chances or long distance bombs.  Side note: official stats leave a lot to be desired, having attended games and comparing later to what I saw versus what the score sheet states.

[Domino1195]

So . . . I watched Oberlin vs Case up to Oberlin's second goal and turned it off . . .

Oberlin is a competent team - skillful.  But I stand by my assessment that they lack the "killer" instinct - and allowing Case to come back and tie it with two late goals speaks to this assessment.

Last night Case was not competent.  First half pass completion rate to Oberlin players was about 90%.  They are far too slow making decisions on the ball, and then they made the wrong decisions.  Second half they attacked with purpose but were inept with their finishing.  Case got in deep several times and tried to make another pass when a shot was the better choice. The goals they conceded were self-inflicted - poor attempt to challenge for a ball leading to a 2v2 break; got caught flat in the back and a through ball to Oberlin's leading scorer was all she wrote. The keeper hesitated just enough - felt badly for him  - may have been better to stay in the 6 given the angle the attacker had and the retreating runs by his defenders - but that's armchair analysis for you.

At best Case wins 1 to 2 more games this year.  Oberlin wins 3, maybe 4. Of course, this is based on their opponents playing their A game.

[bestfancle]

OAC NEWS:

POW: Tom Sloan, two goals for the week including one in Marietta's OAC opener vs. BW

Standings:
HEIDELBERG   2-0   9-0
OTTERBEIN   2-0   8-2
MARIETTA    2-0   8-2-1
JOHN CARROLL   1-1   9-1-1
ONU             1-1   8-3-1
CAPITAL           1-1   7-4
MOUNT UNION   1-1   5-5
WILMINGTON   0-2   6-5-1
BW              0-2   4-7-1
MUSKINGUM   0-2   2-8-1

Games of the Weekend:

10/6:
Wilmington at Baldwin Wallace    7:30 PM   

10/7:
Muskingum at Otterbein       1:00 PM   
Mount Union at Heidelberg       1:00 PM   
John Carroll at Marietta       4:00 PM   
Capital at Ohio Northern       7:00 PM

Going back to that JCU game, they were heavily outplayed for the first 10 minutes but looked better the rest of the game. JCU has a huge problem with getting split down the middle of the field. I remember someone mentioning that JCU is a "lock" barring a meltdown. Losing to Heidelberg is not a meltdown, but losing this week to Marietta would be the start of one. Sometimes a loss can be a good thing for a team, so hopefully JCU takes this the right way. It would greatly benefit them if Heidelberg can somehow lose a game or two and forfeit home field in the OAC tournament, because  their field is tough for a team like JCU to win on.   

This is also a huge test for Marietta this weekend. They have a pretty good record for the games they scheduled this year. Earlier they beat Case and tied Kenyon. By no means a walk in the park for JCU.

Otterbein and Wilmington should both have easy match-ups this weekend.

The late game is Capital vs ONU, two teams typically in the top 4 of the OAC each year. This year there might not be room for both in the top 4. I think ONU wins this game. Traveling to Ada is always tough and I have mentioned 1000 times that ONU is a different beast in the OAC season. Ridenour has the team film trained like beasts.

[Little Giant 89]

Wabash at Kenyon tomorrow afternoon.  The strength of the Wabash squad is along the back.  If we can hold the Lords to a scoreless draw, I would be extremely happy with that performance from the Little Giants.

[PaulNewman]

Wabash at Kenyon tomorrow afternoon.  The strength of the Wabash squad is along the back.  If we can hold the Lords to a scoreless draw, I would be extremely happy with that performance from the Little Giants.

From the other point of view Kenyon cannot afford a draw (or loss) to Wabash.  Kenyon to have any shot at a Pool C needs to be clean the rest of the way.  They might be able to absorb a loss to OWU in the NCAC tourney, and of course OWU will be sky-high for the regular season matchup on their home field.  Basically I think they might be able to afford one more loss.  If they lose to OWU in a couple of weeks they probably need to win the AQ.  The loss to Heidelberg basically left them with no margin for error.

RH will know better than I, but, again from the Kenyon/NCAC perspective, Heidelberg's win over JCU was a killer.  Heidelberg now are already going to have two ranked wins (Kenyon and JCU).

I'm guessing the only scenario where the NCAC gets two bids is if Kenyon goes clean and loses in NCAC tourney and OWU wins the AQ.  Hard to see anyone other than Kenyon being in a Pool C conversation at this point.

[Domino1195]

Wabash at Kenyon tomorrow afternoon.  The strength of the Wabash squad is along the back.  If we can hold the Lords to a scoreless draw, I would be extremely happy with that performance from the Little Giants.

From the other point of view Kenyon cannot afford a draw (or loss) to Wabash.  Kenyon to have any shot at a Pool C needs to be clean the rest of the way.  They might be able to absorb a loss to OWU in the NCAC tourney, and of course OWU will be sky-high for the regular season matchup on their home field.  Basically I think they might be able to afford one more loss.  If they lose to OWU in a couple of weeks they probably need to win the AQ.  The loss to Heidelberg basically left them with no margin for error.

RH will know better than I, but, again from the Kenyon/NCAC perspective, Heidelberg's win over JCU was a killer.  Heidelberg now are already going to have two ranked wins (Kenyon and JCU).

I'm guessing the only scenario where the NCAC gets two bids is if Kenyon goes clean and loses in NCAC tourney and OWU wins the AQ.  Hard to see anyone other than Kenyon being in a Pool C conversation at this point.

We'll find out about Wabash's soft schedule tomorrow.  I would have bet Heidelberg's schedule wouldn't have prepared them for tougher games - but look what they've done. A young team's confidence remains high after such a start - they were overconfident vs Manchester - got refocused vs JCU.  That's encouraging if you're a Berg fan.

Wabash's losses to Hanover and RH aren't horrible losses - the Hanover loss gets a boost when Hanover beats Transy next week.  They've beaten 1 team that has a winning record.  If SoS means ANYTHING this year . . . I can't imagine them getting any kind of result tomorrow.

OWU has some real issues on defense. I can't see Kenyon losing a NCAC game this season - even at OWU.  I know PN is skeptical - but I rely on what my eyes tell me about how a team's playing and the mistakes they're making.

The Slim Shady game of the day in the NCAC is Denison vs DePauw.

TM is better than they were to start the season - they win the PRaC and get the AQ - if not that may take a Pool C from someone. Imagine the quandary a committee member might have if:  OWU beats ONU away, loses to Cap at home, TM away; ONU beats TM at home, loses to OWU at home; Cap beats OWU away, loses to TM away.  If Cap pull out a win tomorrow night at ONU - you got one fine mess . . .