2017 Great Lakes Region

[Domino1195]

OAC NEWS:

POW: Tom Sloan, two goals for the week including one in Marietta's OAC opener vs. BW

Standings:
HEIDELBERG   2-0   9-0
OTTERBEIN   2-0   8-2
MARIETTA    2-0   8-2-1
JOHN CARROLL   1-1   9-1-1
ONU             1-1   8-3-1
CAPITAL           1-1   7-4
MOUNT UNION   1-1   5-5
WILMINGTON   0-2   6-5-1
BW              0-2   4-7-1
MUSKINGUM   0-2   2-8-1

Games of the Weekend:

10/6:
Wilmington at Baldwin Wallace    7:30 PM   

10/7:
Muskingum at Otterbein       1:00 PM   
Mount Union at Heidelberg       1:00 PM   
John Carroll at Marietta       4:00 PM   
Capital at Ohio Northern       7:00 PM

Going back to that JCU game, they were heavily outplayed for the first 10 minutes but looked better the rest of the game. JCU has a huge problem with getting split down the middle of the field. I remember someone mentioning that JCU is a "lock" barring a meltdown. Losing to Heidelberg is not a meltdown, but losing this week to Marietta would be the start of one. Sometimes a loss can be a good thing for a team, so hopefully JCU takes this the right way. It would greatly benefit them if Heidelberg can somehow lose a game or two and forfeit home field in the OAC tournament, because  their field is tough for a team like JCU to win on.   

This is also a huge test for Marietta this weekend. They have a pretty good record for the games they scheduled this year. Earlier they beat Case and tied Kenyon. By no means a walk in the park for JCU.

Otterbein and Wilmington should both have easy match-ups this weekend.

The late game is Capital vs ONU, two teams typically in the top 4 of the OAC each year. This year there might not be room for both in the top 4. I think ONU wins this game. Traveling to Ada is always tough and I have mentioned 1000 times that ONU is a different beast in the OAC season. Ridenour has the team film trained like beasts.

Wilmington is a very undisciplined team  They have some athletes for sure, but the box score is incorrect with the number of YC vs Capital:  they had 5. FIVE. All in the last 20+ minutes. 21 YC for the year.  We know BW can score - and maybe - if they score first - they can hang on. If BW is leading late in the game I'd consider short-term health insurance coverage for their team.

JCU stuck it to Marietta last year in the OAC playoffs 7-1.  Marietta's 7 seniors, 7 juniors were part of that game. Not only did they stick it to them on the scoreboard, they started the game at 4pm on a Wednesday afternoon, knowing Marietta had a 2.5-3 hour bus ride on game day. Tomorrow on wet grass at 4pm.

Berg is 3-0 vs Mt Union last three years - 8-0 goals. Mt Union hasn't scored against Berg since 2013.

Cap and ONU have a lot to play for re: Pool C.  These two, along with Thomas More and OWU, have played one another with very mixed results. A (typical) slow start for Capital can be fatal - as it was in last year's OAC tourney game - down 2-0 with 10 minutes.  Capital is tall and does damage on set pieces - ONU concedes two header goals vs Otterbein this week.

[PaulNewman]

And of course Heidelberg draws 0-0 with Mt Union....and Denision and DePauw go scoreless as well.

Denison is a mystery....good school, reasonable admissions, popular for Northeast and New England folks....and multiple bad years in  a row.

[Little Giant 89]

The Lords win 2-1 with a goal in extra time.

[Domino1195]

Massey rankings with a few other items from NCAA stats.  Was curious about GA/GF, Fouls and YC.

   
• JCU - Offense could have a field day vs BW; 3 of last 4 vs ONU draws – two in OAC tourney play – won both in KFTM by JCU.
• CMU - any points this week will be a plus.  Cannot see Chicago dropping two straight at home, in conference.
• Kenyon - concedes first point for Wabash from a team in the top 50% of DIII schools. Kenyon plays first road game in a month - Wooster with a heart-breaking loss to Wittenberg with 7 second to go. Expecting a physical affair on Wednesday. 2-0 this week.
• Berg - great win vs JCU - runs into the parked bus on Sat. History is all against Berg on Wednesday at ONU - how do they respond after their first loss of the year on Sat vs Otterbein?
• Transy - overcame 1st minute PK at Defiance. Hanover 7-1 last 8, 10 goals last two. Not only does Transy lose at Hanover – could drop points at Manchester if they suffer a let down.
• Otterbein - 7 game win streak comes from 6 at home; 4 of their last 6 on the road. Wilmington on the verge of becoming a hack team – two straight 5 YC games. They get Heidelberg after Bergs first loss of the year.
• Capital - Mt Union puts 12 men behind the ball; they park fleets of buses. Took Cap 215+ minutes to score one goal vs Mt.Union last year – Cap with 15 goals on the year, two starting forwards with injury. Could be another 0-0 game.
• OWU - took 1 point from these team last year – Wabash affair with 8 YC. OWU highest of top 12 GL teams fouls committed.  You tell me – if OWU stops conceding maybe 4 points.
• Case - got 3 of 4 points last week.  Will get 0 this week - maybe 1 win for the rest of the year.
• Thomas More - great week for TM – only one game this week after three last week – Geneva at home next week for what will most likely give TM the conference title. Don't. Look. Ahead.
• ONU - 3 conference home losses since 2012 – all three to Capital (one in OAC play). Drops 2 straight conference games since the time of Moses; haven't lost back to back home games since the Big Bang.
• Marietta - 1-3 vs Union last 4, could be deflated after JCU loss.

Team	Record	Rat	SoS	SSF	Fouls*	YC*	GF*	GA*	Week Ahead
John Carroll	10-1-1	8	11	20	100	15	27	11	BW, ONU
Carnegie Mellon	8-2-1	19	9	5	103	10	24	5	@Chicago, @Wash U
Kenyon	8-2-2	27	24	31	130	8	26	8	@Wooster, @Hiram
Heidelberg	9-0-1	30	156	98	83	6	20	5	@ONU, Otterbein
Transylvania	10-0	33	238	256	67	3	24	4	@Hanover, @Manchester
Otterbein	9-2	40	111	57	129	13	25	9	@Wilmington, @Heidelberg
Capital	8-4	44	25	26	118	15	15	13	Muskingum, @Mt. Union
Ohio Wesleyan	7-5	49	15	23	148	16	23	18	@DePauw, @Wabash
Case Western	5-5-2	52	2	1	66	6	16	10	@Wash U, @Chicago
Thomas More	8-4-1	54	45	97	143	15	24	16	@St. Vincent
Ohio Northern	8-4-1	69	70	54	120	9	27	13	Berg, @JCU
Marietta	8-3-1	82	125	71	96	6	20	7	Mt. Union, @Wilmington
*Through 10/5

[Domino1195]

Cap and ONU have a lot to play for re: Pool C.  These two, along with Thomas More and OWU, have played one another with very mixed results. A (typical) slow start for Capital can be fatal - as it was in last year's OAC tourney game - down 2-0 with 10 minutes.  Capital is tall and does damage on set pieces - ONU concedes two header goals vs Otterbein this week.

Winning goal was not an own-goal but a flicked-on header from a tall Capital player off a long throw . .

[bestfancle]

A little surprised at the high jump from NCAA poll. Heidelberg #8, JCU #13. Compared to d3soccer.com that has JCU at #10 and 'Burg at #18. Kenyon and CMU receiving votes in the NCAA Poll, while being ranked #22 and #20 on d3soccer, respectively.

That sure makes for a fun OAC playoffs if both teams can hold til then.

If both teams hold, and make the OAC final, they are basically playing for a home spot in the NCAA, while the other would most likely travel.

[Domino1195]

A little surprised at the high jump from NCAA poll. Heidelberg #8, JCU #13. Compared to d3soccer.com that has JCU at #10 and 'Burg at #18. Kenyon and CMU receiving votes in the NCAA Poll, while being ranked #22 and #20 on d3soccer, respectively.

That sure makes for a fun OAC playoffs if both teams can hold til then.

If both teams hold, and make the OAC final, they are basically playing for a home spot in the NCAA, while the other would most likely travel.

I also was surprised by the big jump in the coach's poll. I think the D3 poll voters do account for SoS more than the coaches.

The GL top ten will be entirely different next week. Berg plays two of the top 10 this week - I already posted the improbably odds of winning at ONU.  Otterbein has 4 of the next 6 on the road after a generous home schedule for almost a month (the one road game was 25 miles away at Capital where they had as many (more) fans as did the home team).  CMU has a difficult task with two conference road games - both against home teams coming off losses.  Transy at Hanover - not seeing a victory - a draw would be an excellent result.

Of this week's top ten you're looking at 5-6 teams getting a loss this week.

[Domino1195]

OMG - if that wasn't a PK on the Kenyon keeper nothing is . . . minute 50-53 ish.

[Flying Weasel]

A little surprised at the high jump from NCAA poll. Heidelberg #8, JCU #13. Compared to d3soccer.com that has JCU at #10 and 'Burg at #18. Kenyon and CMU receiving votes in the NCAA Poll, while being ranked #22 and #20 on d3soccer, respectively.

That sure makes for a fun OAC playoffs if both teams can hold til then.

If both teams hold, and make the OAC final, they are basically playing for a home spot in the NCAA, while the other would most likely travel.

I also was surprised by the big jump in the coach's poll. I think the D3 poll voters do account for SoS more than the coaches.

The GL top ten will be entirely different next week. Berg plays two of the top 10 this week - I already posted the improbably odds of winning at ONU.  Otterbein has 4 of the next 6 on the road after a generous home schedule for almost a month (the one road game was 25 miles away at Capital where they had as many (more) fans as did the home team).  CMU has a difficult task with two conference road games - both against home teams coming off losses.  Transy at Hanover - not seeing a victory - a draw would be an excellent result.

Of this week's top ten you're looking at 5-6 teams getting a loss this week.

Did you guys think Heidelberg would move ahead of JCU in the Regional Rankings?  If so, then Heidelberg was destined to move into the top 8 nationally because of how the NSCAA / USC has traditionally formulated their National Rankings (regional #1's as the top 8, and so on).



I don't want to assume who does or does not know what about the coaches' poll, but there are always new fans on here and so every year it is good to review this for their benefit, and now seems as good a time as any.  Traditionally (going back as far as I can remember, +/-2000) the NSCAA / USC has formulated their national ranking by placing the regional #1's as the top 8 in the national ranking, the regional #2's in spots 9 thru 16, and the regional #3's in places 17 thru 24.  Then one lucky regional #4 gets the final spot with some or all of the other regional #4's being listed as receiving votes.  In 2014 or 2015 there was effort by some within the NSCAA to become more flexible and it resulted in their national rankings deviating from that traditional formulation/framework a little bit (not much, but a little).  I haven't followed the NSCAA rankings closely in recent years, but I remember checking in last year and finding a week in which it completely followed the traditional formulation/framework.  Looking at the current USC national rankings I see that they have a couple regional #3's above some regional #2's, and two regional #4's while one regional's #3 was not ranked as shown below.  Anyway, it's this traditional formulation/framework that results in some pretty drastically moves up and down in the NSCAA / USC national rankings from week to week.  If a team moves 1 or 2 spots in the the regional rankings it can result in a pretty significant move in the national rankings regardless of how teams in other regions fared in the previous week.  And it means that a weak region will still usually have three teams in the national rankings and a strong region will only have three, maybe four, teams in the national rankings.

United Soccer Coaches NCAA Division III Men - National - Poll 5 - October 10, 2017
Rank    School    Prev.    W-L-T

CENTRAL #1    1  Calvin College  2  12-0-0
WEST #1       2  Trinity University (Texas)   3   11-1-0
MID-ATL. #1   3  Messiah College   5   11-1-0
NEW ENG. #1   4  Tufts University   12   8-1-1
NORTH #1      5  University of St. Thomas   7   12-1-0
SO.ATL. #1    6  Rowan University   10   12-2-0
EAST #1       7  SUNY Oneonta   14   9-1-1
G.LAKES #1    8  Heidelberg University   NR   9-0-1

NEW ENG. #2   9  Amherst College   8   5-1-2
SO.ATL. #2   10  Rutgers University-Newark   13   14-1-0
MID-ATL. #2  11  Lycoming College   16   12-1-0
CENTRAL #2   12  North Park University   17   9-1-0
G.LAKES #2   13  John Carroll University   4   10-1-1
CENTRAL #3   14  University Of Chicago   1   11-1-0
NEW ENG. #3  15  Brandeis University   15   9-2-0
WEST #2      16  University of Redlands   19   9-3-1

EAST #2      17  Buffalo State College   NR   10-1-2
NORTH #2     18  Macalester College   21   7-3-1
EAST #3      19  SUNY Cortland   6   11-2-0
G.LAKES #3   20  Transylvania University   18   9-0-0
WEST #3      21  University Of Mary Hardin-Baylor   22   11-1-0
NEW ENG. #4  22  Springfield College   20   10-0-0
MID-ATL. #3  23  Drew University   24   12-0-1
SO.ATL. #3   24  University Of Mary Washington   25   9-2-1

MID-ATL. #4  25  Johns Hopkins University   9   11-1-1
 

[bestfancle]

Good to know FW, I didn't know this. I also didn't expect JCU to get jumped by 'Berg, but I am not super surprised by that.

[Domino1195]

I think the jump to #1 is a bit much. If they beat ONU and Otterbein this week - sure.

[bestfancle]

OAC NEWS:

POW: Collin Hoffmann, Otterbein, Goalie in two 'Bein shutouts.

Standings:
OTTERBEIN   3-0   9-2
HEIDELBERG   2-0-1   9-0-1
JOHN CARROLL   2-1   10-1-1
MARIETTA   2-1   8-3-1
CAPITAL   2-1   8-4
MOUNT UNION   1-1-1   5-5-1
OHIO NORTHERN   1-2   8-4-1
WILMINGTON   0-2-1   6-5-2
BALDWIN WALLACE   0-2-1   4-7-2
MUSKINGUM   0-3   2-9-1

Games 10/11:
   Mount Union *       Marietta               4:00 PM   
   Baldwin Wallace *   John Carroll           7:00 PM   
   Muskingum *       Capital               7:00 PM   
   Heidelberg *       Ohio Northern       7:00 PM   
   Otterbein *       Wilmington       7:00 PM   

Pretty cool article posted by Cleveland.com of JCU's coach and his son, who I believe should be a 1st or 2nd team All-American this year: http://www.cleveland.com/dman/2017/10/hector_marinaro_john_carroll_s.html

[bestfancle]

Well... ONU smashed Heidelberg 4-0. JJ Fortner had a night for ONU. 'Berg probably drops out of national rankings now, or at least Carroll passes them.

JCU beat BW 1-0. Evenly played 1st half, while JCU dominated the 2nd and should have won 2 or 3 to nothing.

Other scores:
Capital 6, Musky 0
Marietta 3, Mt. Union 2
Otterbein 5, Marietta 1

[midwest]

Denison over Oberlin, 2-0.

[Domino1195]

Massey after yesterday's games.

   
• Major props to Transy - watched the first half: they are are very solid team. I thought their structure, passing and movement were excellent. For those of us interested in Pool C candidates: PLEASE make sure you win the AQ!!!!
• I added 15 teams as I expect both CMU and Case to drop from the top ten next rankings, and I expect all below Case to win this weekend - a PSU-B win over Franciscan might put them in the top 10-12.
• Watched Geneva - GC yesterday - much of the game played in rainy conditions.  Gave up a goofy goal but came back to get the draw - a much better side than GC. PRaC comes down to Geneva at TM next Tuesday. Don't know if Geneva's SoS allows them into the C Pool - TM getting the AQ helps OAC Pool C hopefuls.
• Looks like Denison and Wabash are the leading candidates to round out the NCAC post-season bracket. Denison keeping it clean 3 of last 4
• Otterbein is getting scary as they play with more confidence each game. While I expected Berg to lose I didn't expect 4 goals.  How do they respond after their first loss against the Otters on Sat?
• OAC with 6 of the top 12 spots using Massey.  ONU at JCU is always a classic. Didn't see the game yesterday but was surprised JCU only got one against BW.  Cap at Mt. Union - watched Mt. Union - Marietta yesterday - both defenses/GK's had off days yesterday conceding shaky goals.

Depending on that Otterbein/Berg game next week's top 4 could be JCU, Transy Kenyon and Bein/Berg or Cap

Team	Conference	Record	Rat	SoS	SSF
John Carroll	Ohio AC	11-1-1	8	19	21
Carnegie Mellon	University AA	8-2-1	19	7	5
Transylvania	Heartland CAC	11-0	27	204	254
Kenyon	North Coast AC	9-2-2	28	27	34
Otterbein	Ohio AC	10-2	33	104	60
Capital	Ohio AC	9-4	46	40	27
Heidelberg	Ohio AC	9-1-1	47	135	106
Ohio Wesleyan	North Coast AC	7-5-1	55	20	26
Thomas More	Presidents' AC	8-4-1	56	46	102
Ohio Northern	Ohio AC	9-4-1	57	69	64
Case Western	University AA	5-5-2	61	4	1
Marietta	Ohio AC	9-3-1	76	129	74
Geneva	Presidents' AC	9-2-2	86	202	226
PSU-Behrend	Allegheny Mtn	10-4	93	178	208
Denison	North Coast AC	5-6-1	98	14	31