2017 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

I am often harsh on my Lords but Kenyon put in a splendid performance tonight.  This one won't be as remembered as perhaps some others in the past few years but this was a huge, signature win for Coach Brown.  4 wins in a row now versus OWU and I'd guess that hasn't been done by any team over the past 35 years, ever.  You could tell Brown and Coach Moore were fired up.  Still wish they generated more clean chances with all of that effort.  That said, the effort and work rate were outstanding.  Reminded me of when Kenyon demolished Trinity (TX) in the Sweet 16 last year 4-0 and perhaps used up a little too much energy before going toe to toe with Tufts for 109 minutes the next day.  This version is not as good as last year's, but at least tonight their effort and heart cannot be faulted.  Congrats to Coach Brown and his squad.

P.S.  I also was happy to see that Kenyon had zero celebration or histrionics after the game.

Messiah plays OWU only rarely, but they are 3-0 all time vs the Bishops.

LOL.  I heard somewhere that there was a team in Grantham, PA that is pretty decent.  For Kenyon the last time they won 3 regular season games in a row vs OWU was 1954-1956...a few years before this 57 year old was born.

[Falconer]

Slight homer in me, but it really sucks to see JCU lose like that. Red for Otterbein doesn't do it justice, taking out the best player on the team for an extended period of time. Just a dirty play.

Lombardo's red for jcu later in the game will really hurt them. That's his 2nd red on the year so I think he misses more than just one game.

JCU should still be a lock, but they can't afford one more loss in conference outside of the confrence final.

Yea that was wild...You have to admit that was a HUGE win for Otterbein...I mean I do not remember hearing about Otterbein since they made a surprise appearance up at SLU in the 2002 Final 4.

The Otterbein team in 2002 had an AA defender (Mike Lochner), and I think he was the guy whose throw-ins were their single most dangerous weapon--and (if memory serves) the main reason they defeated Trinity in the semi-final. One of his almost indefensible mega-throws led directly to their second goal in a 3-2 win. It was a great Trinity side (that game was their only loss) led by Josh Card, who is still today by far the all-time goal scorer for Trinity. That Otterbein team won by imitating a boa constrictor. They shut you down and slowly squeezed you to death, with the coup de gras often taking the form of a Lechner throw-in.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Does OWU have injuries? This OWU side seems to be lacking a bit in the talent they usually have. they also look to be lacking some fight. They are having a tough time creating dangerous scoring chances. Kenyon seems to be in control with about 25 minutes left and you would never know this was a one goal game

Correct on both fronts.  OWU down four starters for the season, including two of the three seniors on defense out with concussions since the start of the season.  Last year's NCAC freshman of the year has been hurt for much of the season but was back last night.  May have lost another starter towards the end of last night's game.  Also out at least one contributing sub for the season.  So yes, injuries have been a huge problem.

OWU's other problem is youth.  Not that being young is an excuse, but only three upper classmen (two juniors, one senior) play substantial minutes.  And the younger guys have not stepped up when physical teams have put OWU under pressure.  This game was one example, but St. Thomas did what Kenyon did and then some.  Too many OWU players looked scared to be in that game last night.

The frustrating part is that OWU shows flashes.  John Carroll controlled most of that game, but OWU turned it on for 30 minutes and went from 3-1 down to 4-3 up and were flying.  Kenyon dominated the first 30 minutes, then OWU woke up for 15 and should have been at least 2-2.  But then they slow back down, and good teams exploit it.

OWU is probably a year away from being able to consistently beat top teams.  They've competed with them this year, but haven't gotten over the hump.  I'd give them a puncher's chance in a rematch with Kenyon, just because they gave up a wonder goal and a stupid goal in the first half and you can avoid both of those.   But some guys will need to elevate their play.

As for Kenyon, they know what they do and they do it very well.  Carmona and Myers were the best two players on the field.  As PN said, they're not the Kenyon of the last couple years.  They're lacking some invention/a gamebreaker in the final third, and you can cause serious problems in the back (see, Heidelberg). But they don't necessarily have to be as good to do serious damage.  2016 Tufts was not even close to 2014 Tufts, and they won the title.

Brown's best teams suffocate you in the midfield.  This version is capable of doing that to good teams.  And that gives Kenyon a chance against anyone, because they'll be able to hang in any game.  If the defense tightens up some they could go pretty deep.  Less margin for error than in year's past, but you need a little luck to make the Final Four anyway.

Also, if Kenyon can win out to the NCAC final, I think they'll have a shot at a Pool C.  We'll know better when the first set of rankings come out today.

[PaulNewman]

1) Posting is easier following a good win as opposed to a bitter loss that leaves one with a stomach-churning sick feeling.

2)  Interesting to see Mr.Right comment on the obvious intensity of a rivalry game.  I personally cannot stand rivalry games that I have a stake in.  Perhaps I am too old and/or I should not care so much that I feel cardiovascularly threatened.  The feeling I had clutching and digging into my father's thigh at the Spectrum in Philly when UK was 2.1 seconds away from a monumentally, historic victory and Laettner hit the shot in the greatest college basketball game ever played was the same feeling I felt after Kenyon lost to OWU in 2014, and for days afterwards, and that I can still conjure up on any random drive to work on any morning up to the present.  I dread rivalry games where I have a personal interest of religious intensity.   

3)  The classic rivalry games/matches, and the ones that cause dread, typically are built on some combination of respect and bad blood.  The respect part at least in part includes an appreciation that there is a very good chance your team will lose.  Anytime Kenyon plays OWU I am always convinced Kenyon will lose.  The Lords could win the next 10 straight and I'd still be convinced that #11 would result in a loss.  Conversely, one clear sign of Kenyon "arriving," so to speak, is knowing that an OWU fan knows they could lose, and not just in the usual sense of the "any given day" theme.  I'm talking about when you are actually afraid your team may lose, when losing feels like a very real and visceral risk.  The "bad blood" sort of speaks for itself.  There is sort of a baseline bad blood, which, let's say in terms of a ratio with respect runs about 55/45 or 60/40 in general, and for the months into the offseason.  Then there is the acute phase bad blood, in the build up to game day and immediately after, when the ratio ratchets up to 80/20 or 90/10 in terms of bad blood/respect.  I grew up 30 minutes from Duke and UNC.  I mostly have been spared from the angst of that rivalry because I was raised a UK fan, but I witnessed what happens.  Two very smart, very rational, and even very nice people can literally go insane when they are in the heat of a rivalry thing.  I'm talking about the kind of intensity and bad blood where you almost (and maybe not even almost) want the other team to lose more than you want your team to win.  In D3 soccer, Williams-Amherst and Messiah-E'town are other examples that come to mind.

4)  Being a fanatical partisan runs deep and often contains some unaccounted for element in terms of just why the intensity is so high.  I'm not a Kenyon alum.  I went to Davidson in a very close call over W&L back in the day, mostly because I was a mid-major D1 tennis player, and for better weather.  Davidson is always "ranked" higher than Kenyon.  Most who know of such things would consider Davidson to be a slightly to somewhat "better" school.   I nevertheless wish I had gone to Kenyon instead.  I am convinced I would have been happier there.  It's sort of like unexplainable attractions.  If presented with a line-up of 10 very attractive women, any of us might pick one that isn't necessarily the most "objectively" attractive but most attractive to us (and that can be almost impossible to describe or explain).  At any rate, I wouldn't run through a wall for a particular coach as some might for their alma maters but I would gladly run through a wall for Kenyon, the school.  As an aside, and this is a gripe, the school, administrators and coaches should feed and foster anything that could possibly contribute to the growth, positive vibe, and sense of family among parents, alums, current participants, etc.  THAT IS VITAL and the best programs are good at that.

5)  Being a partisan who cares deeply often results in what I will call creative accounting.  Essentially, in the extreme, that involves what you think could have or should have happened...like discounting all the plays in the opponent's favor, including the ones when they didn't score but could have, and then counting all of your team's plus the ones you think could have resulted in scores.  I think last night's first half should have ended 4-0.  RH thinks 2-2.  Notice 'should' versus 'could.'  I can concede the half could have ended 2-2 but I'd never agree that should have happened.  In the nightmare game of 2014, I admitted at the time and admit now that OWU dominated on the day.  That said, the Lords had the first clear scoring chance (as I recall of course!), clanged the post and then barely missed wide.  If Kenyon scores there who knows how that might have changed the whole dynamic.  They didn't.  A minute later OWU is awarded what from a partisan point of view seemed like a soft PK in a huge, high stakes game.  OWU scores again just before the half.  2-0 and a mountain to climb against a very good team that has been given a full dose of confidence and belief.  I of course remember all the chances Kenyon had to score in the 2nd half to get even, like a phenomenal GK save of an Amolo free kick around the 53rd minutes.  I of course don't recall any chances in the 2nd half from OWU but I've been told they had a couple lol.  Same with Tufts last year.  I remember Kenyon dominating the 1st half, into a vicious wind.  Even Shapiro admitted they were outplayed in that half.  But the Lords didn't get one in.  Tufts then probably outplayed Kenyon into the wind as well, and well, we know how that one ended in minute 109.  And, btw, I have no doubts in my partisan brain that a healthy Kenyon would have beaten Tufts in 2014, and that a rematch with Messiah that year would have been a classic thriller.  That's part of the beauty of being a fan....even in defeat I can still fantasize about what I think should have happened.

6)  The 1st half of the Tufts game reminds me of my concern this year.  Yes, Kenyon is not as good as the last 3 years, but they are still a threat.  They have those 3-4 years in their collective consciousness. They don't go into games expecting to lose to anybody.  The risk is that when you expend that much energy, and don't score as a result, then you press even harder to get one, get more and more extended, and more and more exposed to counters.  Not to mention that you're exhausted.  And there's a natural deflation factor as well.  You've dominated or at least had the better of play but are level or even down a goal.  That's deflating...and you really don't have any room left to "play even harder."  Good runs in tourneys involve the effort yielding fruit, and having a bit of luck on your side.

[Mr.Right]

Does OWU have injuries? This OWU side seems to be lacking a bit in the talent they usually have. they also look to be lacking some fight. They are having a tough time creating dangerous scoring chances. Kenyon seems to be in control with about 25 minutes left and you would never know this was a one goal game

Correct on both fronts.  OWU down four starters for the season, including two of the three seniors on defense out with concussions since the start of the season.  Last year's NCAC freshman of the year has been hurt for much of the season but was back last night.  May have lost another starter towards the end of last night's game.  Also out at least one contributing sub for the season.  So yes, injuries have been a huge problem.

OWU's other problem is youth.  Not that being young is an excuse, but only three upper classmen (two juniors, one senior) play substantial minutes.  And the younger guys have not stepped up when physical teams have put OWU under pressure.  This game was one example, but St. Thomas did what Kenyon did and then some.  Too many OWU players looked scared to be in that game last night.

The frustrating part is that OWU shows flashes.  John Carroll controlled most of that game, but OWU turned it on for 30 minutes and went from 3-1 down to 4-3 up and were flying.  Kenyon dominated the first 30 minutes, then OWU woke up for 15 and should have been at least 2-2.  But then they slow back down, and good teams exploit it.

OWU is probably a year away from being able to consistently beat top teams.  They've competed with them this year, but haven't gotten over the hump.  I'd give them a puncher's chance in a rematch with Kenyon, just because they gave up a wonder goal and a stupid goal in the first half and you can avoid both of those.   But some guys will need to elevate their play.

As for Kenyon, they know what they do and they do it very well.  Carmona and Myers were the best two players on the field.  As PN said, they're not the Kenyon of the last couple years.  They're lacking some invention/a gamebreaker in the final third, and you can cause serious problems in the back (see, Heidelberg). But they don't necessarily have to be as good to do serious damage.  2016 Tufts was not even close to 2014 Tufts, and they won the title.

Brown's best teams suffocate you in the midfield.  This version is capable of doing that to good teams.  And that gives Kenyon a chance against anyone, because they'll be able to hang in any game.  If the defense tightens up some they could go pretty deep.  Less margin for error than in year's past, but you need a little luck to make the Final Four anyway.

Also, if Kenyon can win out to the NCAC final, I think they'll have a shot at a Pool C.  We'll know better when the first set of rankings come out today.

Well that makes sense now as OWU looked much weaker than I have ever seen them in Martin's tenure last night. I thought to myself this is a team that must  have significant injuries. I did not realize they were that young though. It is not an excuse like you said but they looked like they were missing of any field leadership last night. No one pumping the guys up, telling them not to hang their heads and reassuring them even down 2-0 there is plenty of time left in the game. I saw NONE of that on the stream and most concerning I saw a total lack of FIGHT. I also agree with you that when your team shows flashes or as a team that plays hard for 70 minutes can be more frustrating than watching a bad team. It can frustrate you as a fan because you know that if the player could dig deep they could play hard for 90 or their "flashes" turn into consistent  solid performances. Young teams do this quite often and eventually will gel as you say in a year or 2. It does seem that the conference based on the standings is down in general so they may get that 2nd chance in a couple weeks on Kenyon's field. Still a ways away BUT if they do get that 2nd chance they might just be able to catch Kenyon a tad over confident going into the game(only natural) and might surprise. Will be something to watch for.

[Domino1195]

The first of the Regional Rankings comes out Wednesday. For the most part the rankings aren't going to be a shock to most teams except those with weak SoS.  We saw last year what happened to Kenyon in the first rankings - first place in the coach's poll and 7th, I believe, in the first regional.  If past form holds true the top 8 teams, ranked, could be JCU, CMU, Kenyon, OWU,TM, Otterbein - and then Capital, ONU Dension - you pick.  I would not be surprised if Otterbein falls lower than 6th.  Transy may make the top 8 - history says they won't.  I don't believe Tuesday's results will impact the rankings - please let me know if this is not correct.

Regional rankings do not include yesterday's games. Surprised Berg is as high as they are - same for OWU's omission.  OAC teams have good Pool C chances - JCU and Otterbein in the best positions as of these rankings. Bein has a real chance to go undefeated - their last two away games will be tricky.  Capital has JCU and Berg coming up - which will give them 5 games against the top 8 regional competitors.  They'd have to win out and win at least two tourney games to get Pool C consideration IMO.

As I stated Transy's poor SoS (.494) leaves them no room for faltering - it's AQ or bust for them.

1      John Carroll      12-1-1      12-1-1
2   Kenyon              10-2-2      10-2-2
3   Carnegie Mellon      9-3-1      9-3-1
4   Otterbein              11-2-0      11-2-0
5   Heidelberg              9-2-1      9-2-1
6   Thomas More      9-4-1      9-4-1
7   Capital              9-5-0      9-5-0
8   Ohio Northern      9-5-1      9-5-1

[bestfancle]

The first of the Regional Rankings comes out Wednesday. For the most part the rankings aren't going to be a shock to most teams except those with weak SoS.  We saw last year what happened to Kenyon in the first rankings - first place in the coach's poll and 7th, I believe, in the first regional.  If past form holds true the top 8 teams, ranked, could be JCU, CMU, Kenyon, OWU,TM, Otterbein - and then Capital, ONU Dension - you pick.  I would not be surprised if Otterbein falls lower than 6th.  Transy may make the top 8 - history says they won't.  I don't believe Tuesday's results will impact the rankings - please let me know if this is not correct.

Regional rankings do not include yesterday's games. Surprised Berg is as high as they are - same for OWU's omission.  OAC teams have good Pool C chances - JCU and Otterbein in the best positions as of these rankings. Bein has a real chance to go undefeated - their last two away games will be tricky.  Capital has JCU and Berg coming up - which will give them 5 games against the top 8 regional competitors.  They'd have to win out and win at least two tourney games to get Pool C consideration IMO.

As I stated Transy's poor SoS (.494) leaves them no room for faltering - it's AQ or bust for them.

1      John Carroll      12-1-1      12-1-1
2   Kenyon              10-2-2      10-2-2
3   Carnegie Mellon      9-3-1      9-3-1
4   Otterbein              11-2-0      11-2-0
5   Heidelberg              9-2-1      9-2-1
6   Thomas More      9-4-1      9-4-1
7   Capital              9-5-0      9-5-0
8   Ohio Northern      9-5-1      9-5-1

I think JCU keeps that #1 spot, even with the loss to Otterbein, but I'm not sure. I think you're right that Bein and JCU could get Pool C bids. JCU needs to win out (to the OAC Championship game) to ensure a Pool C bid. Otterbien is similar, but I think they need to win the OAC Championship.

[Flying Weasel]

At .621, John Carroll's SOS is very high.  So they have significantly more room for error than Otterbein and Heidelberg.  Not sure they need to reach OAC title game to be safe.  We'll have to see how results vs. ranked teams shapes up in the next couple weeks.  For sure Kenyon and Carnegie Mellon will be ranked throughout, so there's a win and a tie versus ranked teams that they can count on.  Otterbein probably stayed ranked as well, so that's a loss they'll probably be stuck with.

[Ryan Harmanis]

I think last night's first half should have ended 4-0.  RH thinks 2-2.  Notice 'should' versus 'could.'  I can concede the half could have ended 2-2 but I'd never agree that should have happened. 

To clarify, I think 2-1 was a fair score on the balance of play for the first half. Kenyon dominated the first 30, OWU dominated the last 15. My comment on "should have been 2-2" pointed to the stretch where it was 2-1 and OWU missed a 1v1 with the keeper and had a free header saved off the goal line. Setting aside what had come before that, OWU should have made it 2-2 in that stretch, even if that would have flattered the team based on how terrible they were in the first 30.

[PaulNewman]

I think last night's first half should have ended 4-0.  RH thinks 2-2.  Notice 'should' versus 'could.'  I can concede the half could have ended 2-2 but I'd never agree that should have happened. 

To clarify, I think 2-1 was a fair score on the balance of play for the first half. Kenyon dominated the first 30, OWU dominated the last 15. My comment on "should have been 2-2" pointed to the stretch where it was 2-1 and OWU missed a 1v1 with the keeper and had a free header saved off the goal line. Setting aside what had come before that, OWU should have made it 2-2 in that stretch, even if that would have flattered the team based on how terrible they were in the first 30.

Right, I understood that was your reasoning in the individual instance.  I was attempting to offer some more macro observations about how we as fans/partisans choose to parse, perceive and recall in different ways.  My major point is that I believe all of us frequently freeze some events as static and then allow others to be more dynamic...like your goals counted, and your team's that should have happened ('your' in the larger sense)....while the other team's goals (in this case the "wonder goal" [read: a bit of luck but not something that one would take away if it's 'your' team's wonder goal] and a goal off an unforced error) can be erased in a way and any good chances that happened for other team in those said 15 minutes aren't calculated.  I didn't see it but my understanding was that the OWU goal came off a Kenyon unforced error as well.  Just saying the instinct is to "count" what's in our favor and not so much with the other side.  Also cannot assume what would have happened had those unforced errors not taken place.  Maybe a team still would have scored.  I tried to include examples of myself doing what I was talking about to bolster the idea that I was attempting to describe a larger dynamic phenomenon that happens with fans and was not making any kind of more personal statement or saying anything that only applied to one particular game analysis.

BTW, I would disagree with the idea of a "puncher's chance."  Any recent OWU-Kenyon game in my view has had closer to 50/50 odds and certainly no more than 60-40 in either direction.  There is not a doubt in my mind that OWU could beat Kenyon at Kenyon especially with a bid on the line.

[bestfancle]

JCU Plays at Capital today most likely missing their two best players. Lombardo got a red last game and Marinaro went off with a pretty bad nose injury last game (I can't imagine he will play today).

Here's the current OAC standings:

SCHOOL           CONF   OVERALL
OTTERBEIN   7-0           13-2
JOHN CARROLL   4-2           12-2-1
HEIDELBERG   3-2-1   10-2-1
MARIETTA           3-2-1   9-4-2
CAPITAL           3-2-1   9-5-1
MOUNT UNION   3-2-1   7-6-1
ONU              3-3           10-5-1
WILMINGTON   1-4-1   7-7-2
BW                   1-5-1   5-10-2
MUSKINGUM   0-6           2-12-1

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon plays with fire yet again.  Outshoots DePauw 24 to 6 but squeaks by 1-0 on a Lowry header.  Koval missed a wide open net from 2 yards out.  Today was senior day so that can sometimes drain some energy.  Oberlin may still have an outside chance at a playoff spot but even if they don't they would love nothing better than to get a win at Kenyon after last year's last second defeats (twice), and Allegheny on the road to close the regular season could be a classic letdown game.  All that said, 7-0 in the NCAC and on the verge of a third straight regular season title is pretty good.

[Flying Weasel]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Non-Conf. . SOS	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	13-2-1	0.621	3-2-1	0.643	13-2-1	1
2.	Kenyon	12-2-2	0.594	2-2-1	0.663	12-2-2	2
3.	Otterbein	13-2-0	0.564	4-1-0	0.567	13-2-0	4
4.	Carnegie Mellon	10-3-1	0.632	2-3-1	0.627	10-3-1	3
5.	Ohio Northern	11-5-1	0.587	2-3-0	0.585	11-5-1	8
6.	Heidelberg	10-3-1	0.551	2-2-0	0.521	10-3-1	5
7.	Thomas More	10-4-2	0.579	1-1-1	0.619	10-4-2	6
8.	Capital	9-6-1	0.594	2-4-0	0.601	9-6-1	7

[bestfancle]

I don't want to speak too soon, but I would guess that two OAC schools make it now with the slight chance at a third.

JCU should win its final game against Musky. They really handled Mount last night, which is huge and somewhat surprising. Otterbein has clinched the regular season championship, which gives them a bye in the first round of the OAC. Similarly, JCU clinches the 2 seed, and will also get a bye in the first round. I'd be nervous to see ONU if I was JCU, ONU is in that bubble that could maybe receive an at-large bid, although unlikely.

What is crazy is Heidelberg, which is a team I have admittedly been very high on is currently in the 7 spot, looking in. With losses to Marietta and Capital, their only hope is to end up in a tiebreaker with Mount Union for the 6th seed. That would require a Mount loss and a Heidelberg win on Saturday. If anyone knows what this tie-breaker is, besides H2H (they tied earlier this year), please let me know.

OAC STANDINGS:

OTTERBEIN   8-0   14-2
JOHN CARROLL   6-2   14-2-1
OHIO NORTHERN   5-3   12-5-1
MARIETTA   4-3-1   10-5-2
CAPITAL   4-3-1   10-6-1
MOUNT UNION   4-3-1   8-7-1
HEIDELBERG   3-4-1   10-4-1
WILMINGTON   2-5-1   8-8-2
BALDWIN WALLACE   1-6-1   5-11-2
MUSKINGUM   0-8   2-14-1


Here are all Saturdays games, there might be some movement in positions 3-7.
Sat. 28   
        Wilmington *        Heidelberg       2:00 PM   
   Marietta *               Ohio Northern       7:00 PM   
   Otterbein *       Mount Union       7:00 PM   
   Muskingum *       John Carroll       7:00 PM   
   Capital *               Baldwin Wallace       7:00 PM   

[Flying Weasel]

Heidelberg is higher in the regional rankings than in their conference standings!