2017 Great Lakes Region

[bestfancle]

Heidelberg is higher in the regional rankings than in their conference standings!

Exactly! Very, very odd, and I obviously have them behind ONU, so it looks like they have very low odds at an NCAA birth after such a promising start to the season. They basically need an OAC tournament championship.

The way I see it now:

JCU - Automatic bid, regardless of OAC results.
Otterbein - Automatic bid with OAC semi-final win and a loss to JCU in the OAC final.
ONU - Chance to receive bid through beating JCU in the OAC semi-final, and loss or win to Otterbein in the OAC final.
All other teams require an automatic bid though winning the OAC Championship.

There could be an extremely rare situation where ONU wins it all and Otterbein and JCU both get selected, which I would imagine would be the first time ever that the OAC had 3 NCAA tournament participants.

[PaulNewman]

Well, in the midst of this very fine season for the OAC, gotta give a nod to Kenyon.  Doesn't seem like too long ago that the Lords were languishing at 4-2-2 and just about left for dead (including by this writer).  Now 9 games later they sit at 13-2-2 with a 3rd consecutive NCAC regular season crown, and yet again very much in the conversation for top squad in Great Lakes and quietly sneaking back into relevance on the national stage.  Would be good to see them finish strong and win a 4th consecutive NCAC tourney.  This might be one of Brown's best coaching efforts, as the Lords lack finishing firepower.  The good news is that they still have substantial room for improvement, and they will have to be significantly sharper and more clinical in the final third if they have any hopes of a good NCAA run.  They were pretty bad yesterday in the final third against Oberlin, with poor touches, missed chances in close, sloppy passing and giveaways, and skied balls 30 feet over the net from the 18.  The Kenyon announcer  who is also the asst SID was quite open about the sloppy play and what looked like  lackadaisical engagement.  Some of the starters look like they could use more anxiety about losing playing time to reserves breathing down their neck but this team isn't quite as deep as other recent editions.  I also have concerns about Lowry holding up the back line with frosh alongside him, but he is so good and one of the most unheralded talents in D3.

[Domino1195]

Rain, sleet and or snow in Ohio today. Temps in the 30's. Several teams vying for tournament placing on Decision Day. Denison currently in 3rd plays OWU at home today. If they win the have the pleasure of playing OWU again next week at OWU.

OAC is wide open for places 3 through 6. Heidelberg in 7th still makes the field if certain outcomes occur. Capital could finish 3rd or 6th. Otterbein has to be careful on that HS pitch at Mt Union - prediction - at least one RC. Hopefully Otterbein maintains their cool because it will be challenged.

AMCC tourney gets underway with the Buffalo derby - kind of weird as Medaille plays some of their games on the D'Youville field. Would guess, given the weather, that's where they will play today.

PRaC still not settled - TM, Geneva and GC vying for placement - 3 teams with a chance at 4th.

Juicy schedule in the HCAC today as RH and Hanover go head to head for second place. Last year this game decided the league champ and AQ - Hanover beating RH and ending RH's slim NCAA hopes. Barring catastrophe against Earlham today Manchester takes 4th.

Interesting to see the impact of CMU's draw on not only their SOS but all the downstream teams.

Good luck to all, and may Ohio teams not suffer from CR's Rob Lowe or that creepy guy "Michael". Michael is over his head at U9 . . .

[Domino1195]

Tourney play this week will deal with interesting weather conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday 7pm game time temp forecast is low 30's. Wednesday's forecast calls for evening rain and temps in the low 40's

OAC First Round - Tue., Oct. 31
#6 Heidelberg at #3 Capital, 7:00 pm - repeat of last Wednesday's game. Heidelberg's SoCal players wore gloves and leggings in that game . . .
#5 Marietta at #4 Ohio Northern, 7:00 pm - repeat of Sat's 1-1 tie. Marietta's keeper stops a PK in Sat's game

NCAC Semifinals - Wed., Nov. 1
#4 Denison at #1 Kenyon, 2:00 pm - Kenyon in cruise mode since the NCAC season began. Boondock Derby part 2
#3 Wabash at #2 Ohio Wesleyan, 7:00 pm - how does Wabash respond from their home loss to OWU?  Two great goals from OWU to beat Denison on Sat in a very even game

AMCC Semifinals - Wed., Nov. 1
#4 Franciscan at #1 Penn State-Behrend, 2:00 pm - tight one first go-round - Franciscan's poor road record says they won't get a result
#3 Medaille at #2 Mount Aloysius, 12:00 pm - Medaille struggles with D'Youville on Sat needing OT to pull it out.  These two played to a 4-3 OT result at Mt Aloy first time

HCAC Semifinals - Wed., Nov. 1
#4 Manchester at #1 Transylvania, 7:00 pm - so Transy plays he only team to beat them all year? I expect a beat-down . . .
#3 Rose-Hulman at #2 Hanover, 2:00 pm - to be continued . . . Sat's 0-0 draw still begging for a goal.  This time there will be a winner.

PRaC Semifinals - Wed., Nov. 1
#4 Washington and Jefferson at #1 Thomas More, 2:00 pm - 3-0 the first time - I expect the same this time.
#3 Grove City at #2 Geneva, 7:00 pm - the tied at GC in the regular season, they're tied in the standings. GC's losses to Otterbein, CMU, Buff St and TM - combined record of 51-11-8.  Conference SoS is weak - but something to be said for their non-conference SoS.

[bestfancle]

In the OAC, I believe the winners will be Heidelberg in OT and ONU will beat Marietta by two goals.

This would send ONU back to JCU and 'Berg to Otterbein. Both are very hard match-ups!

[TableMax]

The OAC proved to be the best Conference in the GL Region by a wide margin and will get 2-3 teams into the NCAA tourney
.  JCU is still the favorite to win the League Tourney...  Kenyon will most likely come out of the NCAC and will probably get a chance to improve on their mediocre record vs. OAC teams in 2017...

[bestfancle]

The OAC proved to be the best Conference in the GL Region by a wide margin and will get 2-3 teams into the NCAA tourney
.  JCU is still the favorite to win the League Tourney...  Kenyon will most likely come out of the NCAC and will probably get a chance to improve on their mediocre record vs. OAC teams in 2017...

I agree with the 2 to 3 bids. JCU should make it regardless, Otterbein will be in as long as they make it to the OAC final, and might even get in if they lose. Then if JCU and Otterbein lose, the OAC Champ gets an automatic bid.

I believe both Otterbein and JCU have a chance to host the first round of the NCAA tournament, if either of them with the Championship.

[PaulNewman]

The OAC proved to be the best Conference in the GL Region by a wide margin and will get 2-3 teams into the NCAA tourney
.  JCU is still the favorite to win the League Tourney...  Kenyon will most likely come out of the NCAC and will probably get a chance to improve on their mediocre record vs. OAC teams in 2017...

LOL.  No question Kenyon would have been bottom of the table in the OAC this season.

[bestfancle]

The OAC proved to be the best Conference in the GL Region by a wide margin and will get 2-3 teams into the NCAA tourney
.  JCU is still the favorite to win the League Tourney...  Kenyon will most likely come out of the NCAC and will probably get a chance to improve on their mediocre record vs. OAC teams in 2017...

LOL.  No question Kenyon would have been bottom of the table in the OAC this season.

I know you're joking Paul, but say Kenyon is added to the OAC, and wins all its games against the teams it hasn't played, they finish in 3rd at 7-2-1, behind JCU (would be 8-2) and Otterbein (would be 9-1), and that is giving them the benefit of the doubt that they don't slip up against an ONU or Capital.

[PaulNewman]

The OAC proved to be the best Conference in the GL Region by a wide margin and will get 2-3 teams into the NCAA tourney
.  JCU is still the favorite to win the League Tourney...  Kenyon will most likely come out of the NCAC and will probably get a chance to improve on their mediocre record vs. OAC teams in 2017...

LOL.  No question Kenyon would have been bottom of the table in the OAC this season.

I know you're joking Paul, but say Kenyon is added to the OAC, and wins all its games against the teams it hasn't played, they finish in 3rd at 7-2-1, behind JCU (would be 8-2) and Otterbein (would be 9-1), and that is giving them the benefit of the doubt that they don't slip up against an ONU or Capital.

Bottom line?  I'm very comfortable with how Kenyon stacks up vis-à-vis the OAC.  So many ways to look at data, both real and imagined.  The OAC had one go through the OAC undefeated.  Kenyon beat them.  JCU was the only OAC team that played Kenyon evenly. 

[Domino1195]

In the OAC, I believe the winners will be Heidelberg in OT and ONU will beat Marietta by two goals.

This would send ONU back to JCU and 'Berg to Otterbein. Both are very hard match-ups!

I think you're looking at ONU's history rather than at the team they are this year. Needed an 80th minute PK to get to OT at BW and then a second OT game at home vs Marietta their last two. They are still a rebuilding team at this point.

Marietta, like Otterbein, are senior-based teams. Otterbein obviously putting on a defensive clinic in OAC play - Marietta looking for more consistency. I posted earlier that ONU losing at home to OAC teams rarely happens, but their current form isn't great right now.

Since Berg's 9-0 start they are 2-4-1, conceding 16 goals in those 7 games, no wins against teams with a winning record. Pre conference - only played two teams with a winning record. Capital is very young and inconsistent, but they have played the 27th toughest schedule out of 414 teams.  Haven't played well at home in OAC play - 1-2-1 - but I think they'll show up tomorrow.

[bestfancle]

In the OAC, I believe the winners will be Heidelberg in OT and ONU will beat Marietta by two goals.

This would send ONU back to JCU and 'Berg to Otterbein. Both are very hard match-ups!

I think you’re looking at ONU’s history rather than at the team they are this year. Needed an 80th minute PK to get to OT at BW and then a second OT game at home vs Marietta their last two. They are still a rebuilding team at this point.

Marietta, like Otterbein, are senior-based teams. Otterbein obviously putting on a defensive clinic in OAC play - Marietta looking for more consistency. I posted earlier that ONU losing at home to OAC teams rarely happens, but their current form isn’t great right now.

Since Berg’s 9-0 start they are 2-4-1, conceding 16 goals in those 7 games, no wins against teams with a winning record. Pre conference - only played two teams with a winning record. Capital is very young and inconsistent, but they have played the 27th toughest schedule out of 414 teams.  Haven’t played well at home in OAC play - 1-2-1 - but I think they’ll show up tomorrow.

Yeah, I agree I am looking at ONU somewhat historically, but I have also seen Ridenour be extremely keen with film. Year after year, each player on ONU knows the tenancies of their opponents in the OAC, leading to a lot of success. Still, if the talent isn't there, they won't win, I just think they will be extremely prepared, compared to Marietta who have lost in the Quarter-Finals in 2014, 2015, and a whopping 7-1 in the Semi-Final to JCU last year after winning the Quarter-Final in 2OT.

Berg is a confusing team, they only barely made the 6th seed. That being said, when I watched them against Kenyon and JCU earlier this year, they were able to properly manage the game, and I feel that they will get back to that point.

I guess its all up in the air, the magic of playoffs. 

[bestfancle]

Nearing Halftime in both OAC games:

Heidelberg getting the better of Capital, except for maybe set pieces. 

ONU and Marietta are more even, I'd give a slight edge to Marietta. ONU is "mucking" up the game, playing tough solid D.

Excuse me if I miss anything, I'm trying to watch both games. ONU/Etta has been more exciting.

[bestfancle]

Swing and a miss on my predictions...

Marietta wins 1-0, and Capital wins 2-0.

Marietta heads to Otterbein and Capital heads to JCU on Thursday.

Earlier this year Capital lost to JCU 2-0 at home, when JCU was missing its two best players (Injury and Red Card suspension). JCU should handle them.
Also, Marietta lost 3-0 to Otterbein only a week ago at their own place. Marietta might get killed at Otterbein all things considered. 

[Flying Weasel]

NOTE:  The originally posted table had SOS and RvR data that was from the previous week.  It is now corrected.

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	15-2-1	0.592	3-2-1	15-2-1	1
2.	Otterbein	15-2-0	0.560	4-1-0	15-2-0	3
3.	Kenyon	14-2-2	0.572	2-2-1	14-2-2	2
4.	Carnegie Mellon	10-3-3	0.636	2-3-3	10-3-3	4
5.	Thomas More	12-4-2	0.567	1-1-1	12-4-2	7
6.	Capital	11-6-1	0.586	3-4-0	11-6-1	8
7.	Ohio Northern	12-5-2	0.574	2-3-0	12-5-2	5
8.	Heidelberg	11-4-1	0.541	2-3-0	11-4-1	6