2017 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

The switch with Otterbein and Kenyon this week makes ZERO sense, unless Otterbein filed a complaint and won. Same SOS and same RvR with both teams winning since last ranking. One could argue that Otterbein should have been higher to begin with, but there's no basis for a change that I can see. Also, since cmte apparently now considers 3rd and 4th ranking this might not matter, but Heidelberg dropping out after another loss and OWU moving in would take away a loss from Kenyon and give them another win, which of course would only matter if Kenyon picks up a loss or draw with OWU Saturday.

[PaulNewman]

The switch with Otterbein and Kenyon this week makes ZERO sense, unless Otterbein filed a complaint and won. Same SOS and same RvR with both teams winning since last ranking. One could argue that Otterbein should have been higher to begin with, but there's no basis for a change that I can see. Also, since cmte apparently now considers 3rd and 4th ranking this might not matter, but Heidelberg dropping out after another loss and OWU moving in would take away a loss from Kenyon and give them another win, which of course would only matter if Kenyon picks up a loss or draw with OWU Saturday.

[Christan Shirk]

Apologies.  We downloaded 6 of the 8 regions' data sheets before they had been updated for this week.  That's why the SOS and RvR didn't change and the change in ranking doesn't make sense.  Shortly the corrected data will be on the website.

[Flying Weasel]

Corrected . . .

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	15-2-1	0.592	3-2-1	15-2-1	1
2.	Otterbein	15-2-0	0.560	4-1-0	15-2-0	3
3.	Kenyon	14-2-2	0.572	2-2-1	14-2-2	2
4.	Carnegie Mellon	10-3-3	0.636	2-3-3	10-3-3	4
5.	Thomas More	12-4-2	0.567	1-1-1	12-4-2	7
6.	Capital	11-6-1	0.586	3-4-0	11-6-1	8
7.	Ohio Northern	12-5-2	0.574	2-3-0	12-5-2	5
8.	Heidelberg	11-4-1	0.541	2-3-0	11-4-1	6

[Flying Weasel]

So Kenyo'ns SOS fell, so the difference in SOS between Otterbein and Kenyon narrowed while Otterbein's RvR remained significantly better.  Now the flip-flop makes some sense.

[PaulNewman]

So Kenyo'ns SOS fell, so the difference in SOS between Otterbein and Kenyon narrowed while Otterbein's RvR remained significantly better.  Now the flip-flop makes some sense.

Thanks. Makes much more sense now, and no quarrels. Really tight with all of the top four. Still could flip again if Kenyon loses a loss with 4-1 head to head win.  Good motivation for Kenyon to go ahead and get the AQ, although that's not gonna happen if they can't do better than 1-0 today with 34-4 shots advantage. I've also wondered if that last second -- as in 89:59 -- goal for JCU at CMU would end up being very costly to CMU.

[bestfancle]

Corrected . . .

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	15-2-1	0.592	3-2-1	15-2-1	1
2.	Otterbein	15-2-0	0.560	4-1-0	15-2-0	3
3.	Kenyon	14-2-2	0.572	2-2-1	14-2-2	2
4.	Carnegie Mellon	10-3-3	0.636	2-3-3	10-3-3	4
5.	Thomas More	12-4-2	0.567	1-1-1	12-4-2	7
6.	Capital	11-6-1	0.586	3-4-0	11-6-1	8
7.	Ohio Northern	12-5-2	0.574	2-3-0	12-5-2	5
8.	Heidelberg	11-4-1	0.541	2-3-0	11-4-1	6

Yep, this is primed up for a MASSIVE OAC Final. Top two teams battling it out (barring a loss tomorrow by one of the teams). Both should make the NCAA, and I firmly believe they are playing for a set of Home Games in the NCAA tournament. I can't wait to head to Columbus for the game on Saturday.

Also, note a sour end for the Heidelberg team. That being said, they are a young team, with a great coach, and a lot of potential going forwards. Hopefully they can build on their success from early on this season, next year. There will be a big shift next year. Heidelberg and ONU should really improve, JCU and Marietta might fall a little bit.

Question for Y'all, if Heidelberg drops out of the Regional rankings (which I think they will), is this good or bad for JCU/Otterbein? If you remember, JCU (and Kenyon) lost to Heidelberg, while Otterbein beat them.

As Paul noted, Kenyon (and JCU) beat OWU, so if they move in, that will help both those teams by adding another ranked win?

[The Cove]

Another year and another Kenyon Vs. OWU NCAC final. This is the fourth time in five years the two rivals have played in the conference final and if the previous finals are any indication then we are in for a treat:

2013: An excellent OWU team beats an upstart Kenyon team 3-1 — and it should not have been that close. But Kenyon showed their determination and made it a tough battle throughout.

2014: Back at OWU, Kenyon takes an early lead, OWU claws back with a dominant second-half and takes it to overtime. Kenyon comes out firing and Eudy scores a phenomenal goal in a period were OWU could hardly get a touch of the ball. OWU would get revenge in the NCAA tournament just two weeks later.

2015: Kenyon hosts for the first time and dominates all game. They miss a penalty but still cruise at 2-0 with 5 minutes. OWU emerge to put on a clinic on for the final two minutes and score twice before Glassman is taken down in the box and Barnes scores a penalty with 6 seconds left. 

None of this is to mention last years OT game between Kenyon and Oberlin!

Prediction: Kenyon outplay the Battling Bishops but OWU keep it tight and nervy. 1-0 Kenyon final result

[PaulNewman]

^^^^nice recap, except...OWU scored first in '14, and Kenyon tied it before the half ended off a corner.

I was at the game in '13...I think was tied at the half after Kenyon yet again conceded a very early goal (as they went on to do with Messiah as well), and yeah, the final score probably could have been worse.  I believe they drew earlier in that season, and it was after the tourney loss that the Lords put themselves on the map beating Ohio Northern and Wheaton before the epic battle in Grantham on a frigid evening. OWU was I believe #1 in the country for much of that season. An OWU loss at home to Rose Hulman prevented a Sectional at OWU with Messiah, Kenyon and another upstart F&M.

You didn't mention a NCAC semi in 2012...Kenyon took OWU to PKs but could not advance.  I was just reminiscing a few days ago about a certain lefty midfielder for Kenyon being in 1v1 on the OWU GK and missing on a sitter in the 99th minute that might have propelled Kenyon to an AQ in '12.

[Domino1195]

AMCC final is a repeat from last year - as is PRaC and NCAC. PSU-B hosts Medaille again and they are on quite a roll, winning 11 out of 12 - only loss to CMU 2-1 over these past 12 games. The last time Medaille beat PSU-B was 2013 - since then they have lost 7 straight, scoring only 1 goal in those 7 games.  I don't think PSU'B's schedule allows them to lose the final and get in.


PRaC - Geneva pulls out a double OT win last night - watched bits and pieces.  It was one of those games where you were going to feel for the loser - about as even a game as one could play.  A minute before the OT winner GC left winger smashes a cheeky shot near post - almost caught the upper 90 - keeper knocks out for a corner.  Geneva  shots from outside the 18 - right wing - large angle - and the ball seemed to have eyes as it tucks inside the far post, curling away from the diving keeper.  Last year at Geneva TM took the hosts to OT before losing. This year TM hosts.  Geneva could be a possible bid-stealer but I don't see TM losing this game.


HCAC - speaking of evenly played games . . . Hanover scores at the death in regulation to cause OT but drops the decision on KFTM.  Transy struggled all night against Manchester - I've seen Manchester several times this year and have described them as pesky - and that they are. RH loses last year in the conference final - they return to play host Transy.  I feel this is potentially a real bid-stealer game. Transy's SoS of .459, 15-1 record and 1-0-0 RvR could cause the GL Committee heart burn if they lose, but we saw what this committee did to 17-4 JCU in 2014 because of JCU's SoS. If they are consistent Transy must win to get in.


NCAC - perhaps OWU should have minded the weather reports ?  Kenyon was smart enough to play at 2pm and avoid the awful conditions of the evening.  PN has pulled his hair out over the nukmber of shots per game by Kenyon: they are 13th in the country with 20.44 shots per game, 368 total shots.  Small consolation maybe but Rowan is #1 with 447 shots taken and Kenyon is 3rd in the GL behind Medaille and ONU.  "Tried" to watch that OWU game - stuck with it in the second half.  Wabash gives up two leads, the last one coming with less than 2 minutes in the second half.  CR Tre' Gaither must wonder what he's done to the assignors as he seems to ref all the foul-weather games in Ohio. As was pointed out previously the NCAC final is the same as it ever was . . .


OAC semis tonight - rain is in the forecast for 7-8pm in the state - both games on turf - temps in the 60's.  Bein and Marietta - senior based teams - score line doesn't tell the story of the first match-up.  But honestly, Otterbein doesn't try to "win" the stat sheet battle - same for all defensive-oriented teams.  They will concede possession and keep the sheet clean.  Only three goals allowed in conference play. Having played recently these teams will have spent time reviewing game film - Marietta did a poor job preventing crosses from the flanks - they fix that and this game could go to OT.  JCU's home field dominance is as strong as ONU- only three losses in the past 5 years.  When Cap beat them two years ago their bus broke down a mile from the stadium and they walked, with the gear, the rest of the way. It may rain again as it did that night - I suggest they get off the bus and walk the last mile???


Looking ahead to potential final rankings:  I ranked teams by SoS and then removed those with poor won-loss records. Below are the 10 candidates for the 8 spots.  As was pointed out earlier - teams like OWU, ONU and Heidelberg staying or dropping out can have significant impact on RvR records. Capital's is 4-0 versus these teams and sits on the bubble for an NCAA spot.  Of course they have their destiny in their hands and do not need to rely on committee decisions if they win this evening.

Institution	In-Division win-loss pct	RvR	In-Division SOS
Carnegie Mellon	10-3-3 ( 0.719)	2-3-3 ( 0.438)	0.636
John Carroll	15-2-1 ( 0.861)	3-2-1 ( 0.583)	0.592
Capital	11-6-1 ( 0.639)	3-4-0 ( 0.429)	0.586
Ohio Wesleyan	11-6-1 ( 0.639)	1-6-0 ( 0.143)	0.576
Ohio Northern	12-5-2 ( 0.684)	2-3-0 ( 0.400)	0.574
Kenyon	14-2-2 ( 0.833)	2-2-1 ( 0.500)	0.572
Thomas More	12-4-2 ( 0.722)	1-1-1 ( 0.500)	0.567
Otterbein	15-2-0 ( 0.882)	4-1-0 ( 0.800)	0.56
Heidelberg	11-4-1 ( 0.719)	2-3-0 ( 0.400)	0.541
Marietta	10-5-3 ( 0.639)	1-2-3 ( 0.417)	0.536

[midwest]

Just sayin', 2pm Kenyon-Denison game time didn't avoid bad weather -- cold, steady rain, temps in low 40s.

[PaulNewman]

Domino, I think you would agree that there is a difference between a good team that plays defensively and exploits the counter (and is willing to lose the shots "battle" 12 to 6 or 18 to 10) and a team just being really inferior to an opponent (and in my view, shot differentials like 25 to 5, 34 to 4, 24 to 8, etc fall into the latter category).

Tough pill for Wabash to swallow after being two minutes away from probably the biggest win in Wabash soccer history.  You can tell from the coach's post-game comments that he was absolutely gutted and felt the Little Giants deserved the win.  So close but so far away.  When trying to take out a Goliath program, especially on Goliath's storied home pitch, you have to drive the stake all the way through.

[Falconer]

I have a Messiah-Kenyon trivia question for Paul Newman (and yes, anyone else can take a guess). I've listed below the all-time Kenyon leaders in a particular statistic. Which one of those men has a brother who was an all-conference forward for Messiah?

Goals against avg (minimum 2000 minutes)
0.61 - James Smith (15 GA, 2207 min) - 2009-12
0.63 - Sam Clougher (57 GA, 8183 min) 2013-16
0.66 - Tyler Schatz (17 GA, 2319 min) - 2008-11
0.71 - Andy Kingston (16 GA, 2033 min) - 1992-94
0.72 - Chris Schilling (24 GA, 2997 min) - 1994-97
0.75 - Marshall Chapin (55 GA, 6630 min) - 1990-93
0.97 - Elliot Shay (24 GA, 2220 min) - 1994-97
0.99 - Jared Kunze (26 GA, 2362 min) - 2008-11
1.03 - Jamie White (46 GA, 4015 min) - 2006-09
1.04 - Charles Hansen (32 GA, 2779 min) - 1988-89
1.21 - Andrew Wellenbach (27 GA, 2015 min) - 1970-73

I saw the brothers play each other in the regular season. That's the only clue you should need.   

[Domino1195]

Just sayin', 2pm Kenyon-Denison game time didn't avoid bad weather -- cold, steady rain, temps in low 40s.

Missed that - was driving to Toledo and trying to watch . . . didn't look as miserable as the OWU game!

[Domino1195]

Domino, I think you would agree that there is a difference between a good team that plays defensively and exploits the counter (and is willing to lose the shots "battle" 12 to 6 or 18 to 10) and a team just being really inferior to an opponent (and in my view, shot differentials like 25 to 5, 34 to 4, 24 to 8, etc fall into the latter category).

Agreed. But stats are misleading in many ways. I don't  know who counts shots at some games l've seen but "shots" from 25+ yards that sail over the goal by 10+ feet aren't shots. SOG should be the metric - and even then: how threatening were they chances?

I think no greater disparity in using stats exists with rankings - coach's poll vs regional rankings for example. There are some gaudy W-L records in the GL region, yet these teams aren't close to a .500 SoS.