2017 Great Lakes Region

[Flying Weasel]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Otterbein	17-2-0	0.570	7-1-0	17-2-0	2
2.	John Carroll	15-2-2	0.597	4-2-2	15-2-2	1
3.	Kenyon	15-2-3	0.580	2-2-2	15-2-3	3
4.	Thomas More	14-4-2	0.580	1-1-1	14-4-2	5
5.	Capital	12-7-2	0.609	4-5-2	12-7-2	6
6.	Carnegie Mellon	10-4-3	0.623	1-3-3	10-4-3	4
7.	Marietta	11-6-3	0.556	2-3-3	11-6-3	--
8.	Ohio Northern	12-6-2	0.575	2-4-1	12-6-2	7

[Mr.Right]

If I were setting lines for these matches:

JCU (-0.5) vs. OWU - O/U 2.5 Goals - I have to give JCU the slight advantage due to hosting, but it is a close as you can get to a pick 'em.
Calvin (-2) vs. Thomas More - O/U 3.5 Goals - Could easily see this game as a blowout favoring Calvin
Chicago (-2) vs. Lake Forest - O/U 3 Goals - Similar to Calvin, should be no problem for Chicago
Dominican (even) (IL) vs. Capital - O/U 3.5 Goals - Similar Records, bot teams seem to give up goals. Maybe a slight edge to Cap?
Otterbein (-1) vs. Medille - O/U 2 Goals - Could easily see this going 1-0 or 2-0 to Otterbein off crosses and long throws.
Kenyon (-1.5) vs. Transylvania - O/U - 3 Goals - Kenyon coming off a loss should be ready to play Otterbein the next day.

Oh I like this.....I'll take Chicago at -2 for 1000 bananas, Calvin -2 for 1000 bananas, Dominican / Capital under 3.5 for 500 bananas and Kenyon -1.5 for 1000 bananas...I will email you a banana account # shortly.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Quick thoughts (edit - on review, not so quick):

(1) Lowry was very good, don't get me wrong, but it wasn't like he was holding down the fort while Kenyon was under siege.  I thought Carmona had a much bigger impact - Kenyon controlled the ball because of him.  Kenyon plays too direct in the final third, in my opinion, but they build well from the back, recycle the ball after clearances, and go again, all because of him.  I think if you took him off the team, Kenyon would be forced to completely change their style of play, and they'd have to play much more direct the full length of the field, which is quite easy to defend.  Put it this way - I would still favor Kenyon over OWU even if you replaced Lowry with an average CB.  I'd favor OWU if you replaced Carmona with an average CM.  Good chance this postseason, however, that a team will put Kenyon under sustained pressure for a half or a full game, and in that type of game Lowry could be the more valuable player.

(2) The first half play looked clean from my view, but even then you sometimes see those called due to the sheer force of the collision.  50-50 call - very much the type of tackle where you think it's clean when your guy makes it and not when the other guy does.  We were under the impression that it was a shoulder injury.

(3) I thought the NCAC final was pretty even through regulation.  Kenyon had more possession, especially in the second half, but chances were even.  Not much in the first.  Kenyon had one where someone got loose from 10 yards but had it blocked, and Myers had a header that the OWU keeper made look more difficult than it was.  OWU had some half-chances and one really good look that the right mid blazed over when unmarked from 12 yards out.  Second half saw even fewer chances.  I can't remember if the one play where a Kenyon forward cut inside and shot and the keeper made a great save was in regulation or OT, but that was the main one.  OWU had a chance similar to the one in the first half, as the ball fell to an outside mid who blazed over from 12 yards.  Overall, 0-0 was fair for 90 minutes.  Overtime was a different story, as Kenyon went gangbusters in the first OT and should have won the game.  Dominated field position, forced a ton of corners, and had multiple clear-cut, you-have-to-finish-that chances.  OWU's keeper made a couple of big saves, including a great breakaway save after an OWU player completely whiffed a clearance.  Second OT Kenyon controlled field position but couldn't generate much.  OWU did next to nothing in OT, but they fought hard.  As for PKs, it's a crapshoot to begin with.  Credit to OWU's other keeper for the first save, which was legitimately great, and then for guessing right on a few others even with his team behind.  I would think Carmona will take a PK next time, if only because you want to have a say in the outcome when you're such an instrumental part of the team.

From the OWU view, they went bigger in the back, which allowed them to defend crosses much better than the first match-up.  But the biggest difference, to be honest, was that nobody played scared.  I'd say only 3 guys had the required level of intensity for the first match-up, while almost everyone brought it Saturday.  I hope, between Saturday's game and the comeback against Wabash, that the team has turned a corner mentally and will be ready to go from the start on Friday.  They'll have to create more going forward, but few teams pressure you through the midfield like Kenyon.  And OWU has the firepower to create goals, especially on turf.

For Kenyon, I wouldn't stress over that game.  But it did highlight Kenyon's struggles to break down a determined defense if crosses/set pieces aren't working.  Perhaps, as PN suggests, moving Lowry up could let Carmona play further forward and play the final ball more often.  We'll see.  Kenyon has the goods to make the Final Four - very similar to Tufts last year.  I think scoring first is the key for Kenyon.  Their style makes it difficult for opposing teams to overcome a deficit, but also makes it hard for Kenyon to come from behind.

(4) I don't think OWU particularly cares who they play right now.  Not in the sense that they're the favorite, because they aren't, or that they are overconfident, because they still haven't beaten a tournament-level team.  But OWU knows they can play with the other three teams in that pod - they played Calvin even, had JCU on the ropes, and played Thomas More tough despite sleepwalking through a full half.  And all of those games were on the road.  The team should be loose, as they're playing with house money.  Much different than the way OWU limped into the tournament last year.  We'll see how they do, but I love seeing this team get the postseason experience when they only play 1 senior and 2 juniors.  Sets the program up well for the future.

(5) Also thrilled for my little brother to get his first NCAC tournament title.  It's been a rough season for him - he suffered a concussion the second weekend of the season and is still recovering.  Missing your senior season is tough enough, even more so when the team was struggling and the defense was leaking goals (he's a CB).  Regardless of what happens in the tournament, that was a good way for him to go out.

[PaulNewman]

Great post.  Well described.  Not a quibble.

[Ryan Harmanis]

If I were setting lines for these matches:

JCU (-0.5) vs. OWU - O/U 2.5 Goals - I have to give JCU the slight advantage due to hosting, but it is a close as you can get to a pick 'em.
Calvin (-2) vs. Thomas More - O/U 3.5 Goals - Could easily see this game as a blowout favoring Calvin
Chicago (-2) vs. Lake Forest - O/U 3 Goals - Similar to Calvin, should be no problem for Chicago
Dominican (even) (IL) vs. Capital - O/U 3.5 Goals - Similar Records, bot teams seem to give up goals. Maybe a slight edge to Cap?
Otterbein (-1) vs. Medille - O/U 2 Goals - Could easily see this going 1-0 or 2-0 to Otterbein off crosses and long throws.
Kenyon (-1.5) vs. Transylvania - O/U - 3 Goals - Kenyon coming off a loss should be ready to play Otterbein the next day.

For fun: I'll take Chicago/over, Dominican/under, Otterbein/over, and Transy/under (but Kenyon wins).  Not picking a winner in OWU-JCU but I'll take the over.

[bestfancle]

Today's the day for some of our Great Lakes teams. Good luck to the region!

We had our first snow last night in Northeast, Ohio. Although nothing stuck, its a good indication of how cold it will be tonight, especially in that Calvin vs. Transy game at 8 PM.

JCU vs. OWU takes off at 5:30, and I am more than excited.


Editing my post: At 4PM it is approximately 26 degrees in University Heights, windchill at 15. It's supposed to hover around 24-25 all night. Happy to be in the stands, not on the pitch.

[Mr.Right]

Love the 2 JCU All-Pasta Players and IIRC their 2 best players #10 Lombardo and #21 Marinaro(Coaches Son)...Both seniors

[NEsoccerfan]

First time seeing either of these teams play this year and I must say JCU appears to be the much stronger side. OWU just booting the ball every time they get it. I'm very impressed with JCU.

[blooter442]

First time seeing either of these teams play this year and I must say JCU appears to be the much stronger side. OWU just booting the ball every time they get it. I'm very impressed with JCU.

Can't get the stream to work, but see that JCU just scored. Curious as to how OWU responds.

[blooter442]

Ah, there we go...not sure if that was a deflection or a deft touch over the 'keeper?

[Mr.Right]

All-Pasta teammates get in on the goal...What is this JCU GK doing?

[NEsoccerfan]

Ah, there we go...not sure if that was a deflection or a deft touch over the 'keeper?

Deflection

[blooter442]

Ah, there we go...not sure if that was a deflection or a deft touch over the 'keeper?

Deflection

Just watched again twice -- looked like a nice touch to me but looked like more luck than judgment. GK certainly didn't cover himself in glory, but he was in a tough spot.

[Mr.Right]

SICK STRIKE

[NEsoccerfan]

SICK STRIKE

What a beauty