D3 Women's Soccer 2017 Season

[CarpIsNotAFish]

Arcadia knocks off Messiah!

[deiscanton]

Washington University with a convincing 2-1 road win over previously undefeated UChicago...

The Conference Central page should list Wash U as the Pool A AQ from the UAA as a result of the head to head tiebreaker between UAA Co-Champions Wash U and Chicago.  Both Wash U and Chicago finish tied at 6-1 in the UAA.

[deiscanton]

A quick early morning update on the Pool C picture right now--

The following teams should be selected on Monday via Pool C as of now:

1.). Chicago-- #1 Central-- UAA Co-Champion; lost head to head tiebreaker against Wash U.
2.) Carnegie Mellon--#1 Great Lakes
3.) Messiah-- # 1 Mid-Atlantic
4.) Connecticut College--#3 New England
5.) Middlebury--#4 New England
6.) Wartburg-- #3 North
7.) St Thomas MN-- #4 North

Also leaning to take Cal Lutheran--#2 West for Pool C pick #8.

12 Pool C picks to go....

[deiscanton]

With their victory over George Fox yesterday, (#5W) Pacific Lutheran has clinched the NWC Regular Season Championship and the AQ to the NCAAs.  Pacific Lutheran has a 4 pt lead over their nearest rivals with one game left to play.  The NWC concludes double round robin play today.

[WUPHF]

Thanks for the bracketology @deiscanton.

[deiscanton]

First off, we have to pick a Pool B team to the field.

The Pool B candidates that we have do not have great resumes, but here is the board for these candidates-- we must choose one.

Data from week 3 rankings, with the top candidate from each region on the board:

New England-- Pine Manor 3-8 (.373), SOS .293
East-- SUNY Canton 4-8 (.333) SOS .469
Mid-Atlantic-- Valley Forge 4-6 (.400) SOS .339
South Atlantic-- Trinity Washington 4-1 (.800) SOS .311, 2-0 vs Valley Forge
Central-- Marantha Baptist 4-7(.364), SOS .398, advantage over Mt Mary via common opponent Rockford
North-- Mt Mary 5-7-1, SOS .218
West-- UC Santa Cruz 3-8 (.375) SOS .512, 0-1 vs regionally ranked opponents.


My Pool B pick goes to UC Santa Cruz, the team with the strongest SOS, and the only one to play against a regionally ranked opponent, Cal Lutheran.

[deiscanton]

Centennial Conf AQ is going to PKs.

Johns Hopkins and Swarthmore finish with a draw at 2-2.

[deiscanton]

Swarthmore takes the Centennial AQ on PKs, 3-1, after 4 rounds of PKs.

Swarthmore went first, converting PKs in rounds 1,2, and 3, but missed in round 4.

Johns Hopkins only converted one in the first round, but missed on all subsequent rounds.

[deiscanton]

Starting my mock Pool C picks--

C1-- Chicago (#1 Central)
C2-- Messiah (#1 Mid Atlantic)
C3-- Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes)
C4-- Johns Hopkins (#2 Mid Atlantic)
C5-- Connecticut College(#3 New England)
C6-- Wartburg (#3 North)
C7-- Cal Lutheran (#2 West)
C8-- Middlebury (#4 New England)
C9-- St Thomas MN (#4 North)
C10-- Illinois Wesleyan (#4 Central)
C11-- UW-Whitewater (#5 North)
C12-- Rowan (#4 South Atlantic)
C13-- Brandeis (#5 New England)
C14-- Tufts (#6 New England)

As a result of Vassar beating RIT in LL semis, I have moved Nazareth to #4 East, NYU to #5 East and #6 in East is RIT.  These three teams are so close together that due to NYU beating Vassar, I have NYU ahead over RIT.

C15 Nazareth
C16 New York University
C17 RIT

The final 3 mock picks should come from this board--

Hamilton, St Lawrence, Susquehanna, Virginia Wesleyan, John Carroll, Adrian, Augsburg, and Mary Hardin Baylor.

After taking a few hours to get some rest and think about it--

C18-- Virginia Wesleyan #5 South Atlantic

Bridgewater VA up on the board from S. Atlantic

C19-- Bridgewater VA #7 South Atlantic


My final mock Pool C pick is--

C20-- Susquehanna -- #6 Mid Atlantic

Susquehanna gets the edge with a better win percentage, and the result of a tie vs #3 Misericordia outweighing Hamilton's win over #4 Middlebury in NESCAC tourney.

I also had to use secondary criteria for this final pick, and Susquehanna's non conference SOS from the week 1 rankings was way better than Hamilton's non C conference SOS.

My last mock Pool C pick came down to Hamilton or Susquehanna, and Hamilton was my first one out.  Hamilton's win over Middlebury was impressive, but a non conference SOS of .496 in week 1 soured me on Hamilton

Selection Monday reaction--

I got 16 of my 20 mock Pool C selections correct.

NCAA took Hamilton (#7 NE), Wilkes (#7 Mid Atlantic), McDaniel (#9 Mid Atlantic), and Mary Hardin Baylor (#4 West)

Picks I got wrong-- the package deal of RIT, Nazareth, and NYU plus the selection of Bridgewater (VA).

[bricullen]

deiscanton, Thank you for the great work.  Very enjoyable reading.

[deiscanton]

Thanks.  I am planning to watch the selection show quietly at my town library, and hopefully the NCAA will put up the show on demand afterwards because my library opens at 1 PM Eastern today, so I may miss a few minutes of the live women's selection show feed.  I will stay and watch the men's feed afterwards.  In the past, I have travelled to the Brandeis campus to watch the shows with the teams, but I would like to save my money for tickets and potentially official NCAA playoff t shirts.  The NCAA merchandise is very expensive-- at least $20 to $25 for a t shirt with the names of the teams in the field printed on it.  At least Brandeis finally has banners all over the Gosman Center printed with the years each sports team made the NCAA tournament.  For many years, they only had the banners of the Brandeis teams that won the NCAA National Championship.

[CarpIsNotAFish]

Starting my mock Pool C picks--

C1-- Chicago (#1 Central)
C2-- Messiah (#1 Mid Atlantic)
C3-- Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes)
C4-- Johns Hopkins (#2 Mid Atlantic)

Wow. What kind of odds would you have given at the beginning of the season if someone had predicted that all 4 of these ^^^^ teams would need a pool bid to get into the dance. 100-1? 1000-1?

[bricullen]

Those are certainly 4 very strong teams.  The UAA is a fantastic conference.  No matter what there would have been two top ten at large teams coming from the UAA.  The Centennial is pretty strong as well.  Out of the 4, I would have to say that Messiah not getting the AQ is the most surprising, but, not 1000-1 surprising.  100-1 is probably around right.     

[deiscanton]

On my mock board, I got 16 correct out of 20--

The NCAA National Committee rejected the package deal of RIT, Nazareth, and NYU.  It was understable- either all 3 were going to get Pool C's, or none of them would get Pool C's.  The NCAA also did not take Bridgewater (VA).

Afterwards, the picks that the NCAA took:  Hamilton, Wilkes, McDaniel, and Mary Hardin Baylor seem to make sense.

The Mid Atlantic is a very strong region, so it was no surprise that if a #8 and #9 ranked team was going to be selected, it would be from that region.

Hamilton played their way into the NCAAs by knocking off #4NE Middlebury in the NESCAC quarters-- that victory was Hamilton's first ever NESCAC women's soccer tournament victory.  That gave NESCAC a fourth Pool C bid for the second year in a row. 

I thought that the West would not get 2 Pool C's in -- apparently the NCAA disagreed.  The West Region also got the Pool B pick of UC Santa Cruz.  Mary Hardin Baylor (#4 West) makes sense as a geographic pick.

[deiscanton]

Pool C picks by region--

New England got 5 Pool C picks:  Connecticut College, Middlebury, Brandeis, Tufts, and Hamilton.

East got 0 Pool C picks.

Mid Atlantic got 5 Pool C picks:  Messiah, Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Wilkes, and McDaniel.

South Atlantic got 2 Pool C picks:  Rowan and Virginia Wesleyan

Great Lakes got 1 Pool C pick:  Carnegie Mellon

Central got 2 Pool C picks:  Chicago and Illinois Wesleyan

North got 3 Pool C picks:  Wartburg, St Thomas (MN), and UW-Whitewater

West got 2 Pool C picks:  Cal Lutheran, and Mary Hardin Baylor.