2017 Season - National Perspective

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Games of the Week

Tuesday:
Case Western @ #17 Kenyon
NYU @ Drew

Wednesday:
#9 Messiah @ Etown
#11 W&L @ Lynchburg
#23 Stockton @ #19 Rowan
York @ Leb Val
Skidmore @ Williams
Thomas More @ Denison
Dickinson @ F&M
Capital @ OWU
Dubuque @ UW Platteville
Chapman @ Redlands

[Shooter McGavin]

MAF Top 10
1. Calvin (8-0-0)
2. Chicago (8-0-0)
3. Rutgers Newark (9-0-0)
4. Tufts (5-0-1)
5. Hopkins (8-0-0)
6. Messiah (7-1-0)
7. John Carroll (6-0-1)
8. W&L (6-0-1)
9. Lycoming (7-1-0)
10. St. Thomas (7-1-0)

I agree with pretty much all of these teams. May have the order a little different. Also look for Trinity (Tx), CMU, and Cortland St to all creep into the mix for top 10 discussion.

[jknezek]

I've watched a bunch of W&L games, as an alum, and I think you guys are high. They are a good team. No one can look past them. But they just aren't quite elite. Just like the last few years. I expect to see them win a game or two in the tournament if they stay healthy all season and earn a bid. But inside the top 10? The record may say yes, but the eyeball test for me says not quite. They were basically straight up, at home, with F&M. Probably should have won except for the own goal. Most seasons that would be a real good sign of top 10 status. I'm not so sure this season. I think they are as good as they've been, and when push has come to shove, they've been in that 15-25 range. Still seems about right.

[D3soccerwatcher]

#3/#4 ranked Lycoming down 1-0 at half at Case Western Reserve.  Possession has got to be 75% - 25% is favor of CWR.  Lycoming is about as straight an up and down team as I have seen in quite some time.

Not sure what game you were watching. I would say Case had the better of play for the first 15 minutes and then got the goal they deserved. Once that happened it seemed that Lycoming decided not to sit in and they had the better of play for the remainder of the game. Case may have had 2 or 3 decent chances the rest of the game after scoring compared to Lycoming having chance after chance. I would not consider this laying an egg by any means. Case is in a strong conference, was at home, and motivated for a big win. Overall from watching most of this game (switching back and forth to others yesterday online) I thought Lycoming was clearly the dominant team and got unlucky to not find the back of the net. Case is a solid team and did well defensively to hold on for the win. Great win for Case and a tough loss for Lycoming. But laying an egg and stating that they had 25% possession is just flat out false.

Any time a Top 4 ranked team in the nation loses to an unranked team (not even regionally ranked) with a .500 record, and further does it by putting up a "goose egg" (i.e. getting shut out), that IMO is laying an egg.  I could understand that not being the case if their opponent simply "parked the bus", but CWRU certainly did not do that.

As for my assessment of time of possession, I wasn't talking about shots, or being more dangerous, or number of chances, or the "better of play", or even who the better team was overall –  I was strictly talking  about the time of possession.  While the NUMBER of possessions was even between the two teams, in my assessment the TIME of possession was well in favor of CWRU.  Whenever Lycoming won the ball they VERY QUICKLY pushed it directly up field and frequently ended in a shot attempt without a goal – the result of which was... loss of possession.  CWRU conversely built from the back and connected passes through the midfield, and it didn't always result in a shot – but they had the ball for considerably longer periods of time.  So my assessment of time of possession was well in favor of CWRU.

[Domino1195]

I've watched a bunch of W&L games, as an alum, and I think you guys are high. They are a good team. No one can look past them. But they just aren't quite elite. Just like the last few years. I expect to see them win a game or two in the tournament if they stay healthy all season and earn a bid. But inside the top 10? The record may say yes, but the eyeball test for me says not quite. They were basically straight up, at home, with F&M. Probably should have won except for the own goal. Most seasons that would be a real good sign of top 10 status. I'm not so sure this season. I think they are as good as they've been, and when push has come to shove, they've been in that 15-25 range. Still seems about right.

Went to the Capital game. I like to find pro's and con's in every result - my son's HS coach called me a "romantic" - he's not wrong - but my assessment of W&L based on this game and watching the F&M game online:

   
• First half of F&M they were on their heels, reacting it seemed to me.  I didn't understand the penetrating run that led to the shot and goal - someone needs to step.  An uncontested shot is not the GK's friend but getting inside the near post seemed a bit shaky.
• Great start to the second half - much more energy and purpose. Two goals from corners - the second going directly in off the kick.  A third corner barely missing the same spot.
• The OG was a heart-breaker - the only worse thing I saw this year was the JCU goal with one second left on Sunday.  I'm amazed CMU came out and played a strong OT.  While not the result they wanted, that OT is a "micro-moment" that tells you something about the character of a team.
• First half vs Cap - total domination.  Stat sheet had two shots for Cap - I saw one. High press was effective.  Also - playing like a 4-2-4 - more like a 4-1-1-4: forced a team playing a 5 back to have their backs mark and chase runners (when they decided that was important to do . . .).  the top mid making diagonal runs across the field to the ball side, receiving - usually without a man on, and setting up shop on the top of the D.  Hit the woodwork couple times, keeper had to make some big saves, got the deserved PK.
• Second half - there's where W&L needs to look at the video.  Cap finally played a bit - got the ball wide and down the wings.  They are one of the fastest teams I've seen and when they play to their strength they can cause defense fits.  I didn't think W&L's backs were particularly fast - not to say they are slow but relative to Cap's attackers they couldn't run with them. 6 times Cap got in behind the defense and sent 4 crosses on the ground, two in the air: one save, one muffed shot and four balls sent to Roanoke.  6 minutes into the second half the score could have been 3-1 Cap.

Your middies - #5,6 & 7 - are the best unit I've seen - but they turned off a bit to start the second half.  They won ALL 50/50 and second-ball challenges. Scoring again off a corner - set pieces accounting for 40% of goals - is a good thing.


They showed the skill, toughness and attitude needed to make a solid NCAA run.  Like all NCAA champs - got to bring it 6 straight games, and one mistake/turn-off can be the end.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

#3/#4 ranked Lycoming down 1-0 at half at Case Western Reserve.  Possession has got to be 75% - 25% is favor of CWR.  Lycoming is about as straight an up and down team as I have seen in quite some time.

Not sure what game you were watching. I would say Case had the better of play for the first 15 minutes and then got the goal they deserved. Once that happened it seemed that Lycoming decided not to sit in and they had the better of play for the remainder of the game. Case may have had 2 or 3 decent chances the rest of the game after scoring compared to Lycoming having chance after chance. I would not consider this laying an egg by any means. Case is in a strong conference, was at home, and motivated for a big win. Overall from watching most of this game (switching back and forth to others yesterday online) I thought Lycoming was clearly the dominant team and got unlucky to not find the back of the net. Case is a solid team and did well defensively to hold on for the win. Great win for Case and a tough loss for Lycoming. But laying an egg and stating that they had 25% possession is just flat out false.

Any time a Top 4 ranked team in the nation loses to an unranked team (not even regionally ranked) with a .500 record, and further does it by putting up a "goose egg" (i.e. getting shut out), that IMO is laying an egg.  I could understand that not being the case if their opponent simply "parked the bus", but CWRU certainly did not do that.

As for my assessment of time of possession, I wasn't talking about shots, or being more dangerous, or number of chances, or the "better of play", or even who the better team was overall –  I was strictly talking  about the time of possession.  While the NUMBER of possessions was even between the two teams, in my assessment the TIME of possession was well in favor of CWRU.  Whenever Lycoming won the ball they VERY QUICKLY pushed it directly up field and frequently ended in a shot attempt without a goal – the result of which was... loss of possession.  CWRU conversely built from the back and connected passes through the midfield, and it didn't always result in a shot – but they had the ball for considerably longer periods of time.  So my assessment of time of possession was well in favor of CWRU.

That is fair D3SW and I would only argue then that possession was tighter than 75/25. More like 55/45 in my opinion. The first 15-20 minutes it may have been 75/25 but after that it became much more even. As for possession I think both teams just have different styles and doesn't make one better or worse than the other. This goes back to the fun debates between Amherst and Messiah and both team's vastly different styles but similar success in winning games.   

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

For purposes of comparison with the rankings being released today, here are the current top 25 from the Massey Ratings and Hero Sports...

Massey:
1. Chicago
2. Calvin
3. Hopkins
4. Tufts
5. Messiah
6. John Carroll
7. Newark
8. CT College
9. CMU
10. W&L
11. Lycoming
12. Cortland St
13. Springfield
14. Rowan
15. Fords
16. Oneonta St
17. Trinity (Tx)
18. Lynchburg
19. Amherst
20. Brandeis
21. Middlebury
22. Wash U
23. Drew
24. Williams
25. Wesleyan (Ct)

Hero Sports:
1. Chicago
2. John Carroll
3. Calvin
4. CMU
5. Oneonta St
6. Hopkins
7. Messiah
8. Trinity (Tx)
9. Lycoming
10. W&L
11. CT College
12. Rowan
13. Newark
14. Drew
15. Springfield
16. Cortland St
17. North Park
18. Tufts
19. OWU
20. Fords
21. Texas Tyler
22. CNU
23. Kenyon
24. Skidmore
25. Mary Hardin-Baylor

[jknezek]

Went to the Capital game. I like to find pro's and con's in every result - my son's HS coach called me a "romantic" - he's not wrong - but my assessment of W&L based on this game and watching the F&M game online:

   
• First half of F&M they were on their heels, reacting it seemed to me.  I didn't understand the penetrating run that led to the shot and goal - someone needs to step.  An uncontested shot is not the GK's friend but getting inside the near post seemed a bit shaky.
• Great start to the second half - much more energy and purpose. Two goals from corners - the second going directly in off the kick.  A third corner barely missing the same spot.
• The OG was a heart-breaker - the only worse thing I saw this year was the JCU goal with one second left on Sunday.  I'm amazed CMU came out and played a strong OT.  While not the result they wanted, that OT is a "micro-moment" that tells you something about the character of a team.
• First half vs Cap - total domination.  Stat sheet had two shots for Cap - I saw one. High press was effective.  Also - playing like a 4-2-4 - more like a 4-1-1-4: forced a team playing a 5 back to have their backs mark and chase runners (when they decided that was important to do . . .).  the top mid making diagonal runs across the field to the ball side, receiving - usually without a man on, and setting up shop on the top of the D.  Hit the woodwork couple times, keeper had to make some big saves, got the deserved PK.
• Second half - there's where W&L needs to look at the video.  Cap finally played a bit - got the ball wide and down the wings.  They are one of the fastest teams I've seen and when they play to their strength they can cause defense fits.  I didn't think W&L's backs were particularly fast - not to say they are slow but relative to Cap's attackers they couldn't run with them. 6 times Cap got in behind the defense and sent 4 crosses on the ground, two in the air: one save, one muffed shot and four balls sent to Roanoke.  6 minutes into the second half the score could have been 3-1 Cap.

Your middies - #5,6 & 7 - are the best unit I've seen - but they turned off a bit to start the second half.  They won ALL 50/50 and second-ball challenges. Scoring again off a corner - set pieces accounting for 40% of goals - is a good thing.


They showed the skill, toughness and attitude needed to make a solid NCAA run.  Like all NCAA champs - got to bring it 6 straight games, and one mistake/turn-off can be the end.

This ties out with a lot of what I saw so thanks for the comments. Same against RMC this weekend. The Yellowjackets are a good team, they'll win a lot of games, but if the Generals are truly making for a Sweet 16/Elite 8 level, they should have done much better. A win is a win, and honestly saying W&L is a top 15-25 team is a massive compliment. It puts them inside what? The top 8% or 6% of D3 teams? But when I watch those Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final 4 games, I see more speed, more killer instinct, especially off run of play, and usually a bit more depth.

W&L certainly has some great pieces. And Coach Singleton has taken a consistently good program and made it a nationally competitive program. I'm not complaining or knocking the coaches or athletes because they are a heck of a lot better than when I was nicely told after freshman year by Coach Pirhanian that I probably wasn't going to have the right stuff! So I have a lot of respect for the players and the team.

But, I just don't quite see the same quality I see in those final games, those real elite, National Championship if the ball rolls the right way, type teams. Not far off, but not quite there. I'm hopeful though, and very proud of the team, and happy to watch as much as I can!

[firstplaceloser]

i'm very curious about this, does anyone really think Stockton is a Top 25 team..?

[Go2Goal]

I watched the game last night and Rowan absolutely destroyed Stockton. In my opinion Stockton is NOT a top 25 team. They simply are not athletic enough to compete with the top teams. Their back line is not very strong and they lack a goal scorer. The pack it in and look to counter but the speedy winger that chased everything is average to good but definitely not a top player in the conference let alone the region and the country. 

[Flying Weasel]

Never bought Stockton being a Top 25 team.  Schedule was too weak to reward them with a spot in the Week 2 and 3 rankings coming off a .500 season in 2016.  Drew had similar early season success against a weak schedule (a 6-0 home win over Muhlenberg being the highlight), but had to wait until getting that 6-0 win over Elizabethtown to crack the Top 25 in Week 4.  That seemed a more reasonable wait-and-see approach given the strength of schedule.  Of course, once ranked in Week 2, Stockton wasn't going anywhere as log as they kept winning, and they even were given the benefit of the doubt (that I didn't think they had earned) in the Week 3 rankings after a tie with Arcadia.  Now coming off a 2-0-0 week that included a win over a previously unbeaten Moravian team (what to make of Moravian?  Weak schedule overall, scoreless tie against a struggling Montclair St side, respond to loss to Stockton with surprising 2-0 road win at Scranton) they climbed in the rankings.  I think it was pre-mature to rate Stockton that high, but the results in NJAC play were probably going to sort that out sooner or later, and the 0-3 loss to Rowan (Shots 5-16, SOG 1-9, corners 1-7) seems to support that they were overrated.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. Calvin (9-0-0)
2. Chicago (9-0-0)
3. Tufts (6-0-1)
4. Newark (11-0-0)
5. Hopkins (9-0-0)
6. Messiah (8-1-0)
7. Lycoming (9-1-0)
8. CMU (6-1-1)
9. Trinity (Tx) (8-1-0)
10. St. Thomas (8-1-0)
11. Rowan (9-2-0)
12. Cortland St. (8-1-0)
13. Springfield (7-0-0)
14. CT College (6-0-2)
15. Lynchburg (7-1-1)
-----------------------------------
RV: Wash U, Kenyon, Amherst, Brandeis, Drew, W&L, St. Joe's (Maine), Oneonta St, Haverford, Transylvania, Heidelberg

[bestfancle]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. Calvin (9-0-0)
2. Chicago (9-0-0)
3. Tufts (6-0-1)
4. Newark (11-0-0)
5. Hopkins (9-0-0)
6. Messiah (8-1-0)
7. Lycoming (9-1-0)
8. CMU (6-1-1)
9. Trinity (Tx) (8-1-0)
10. St. Thomas (8-1-0)
11. Rowan (9-2-0)
12. Cortland St. (8-1-0)
13. Springfield (7-0-0)
14. CT College (6-0-2)
15. Lynchburg (7-1-1)
-----------------------------------
RV: Wash U, Kenyon, Amherst, Brandeis, Drew, W&L, St. Joe's (Maine), Oneonta St, Haverford, Transylvania, Heidelberg

No JCU  What?

They go into CMU, while higher ranked, and get a tie. They have no losses and should be higher than CMU!

[DonkeyTouch]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. Calvin (9-0-0)
2. Chicago (9-0-0)
3. Tufts (6-0-1)
4. Newark (11-0-0)
5. Hopkins (9-0-0)
6. Messiah (8-1-0)
7. Lycoming (9-1-0)
8. CMU (6-1-1)
9. Trinity (Tx) (8-1-0)
10. St. Thomas (8-1-0)
11. Rowan (9-2-0)
12. Cortland St. (8-1-0)
13. Springfield (7-0-0)
14. CT College (6-0-2)
15. Lynchburg (7-1-1)
-----------------------------------
RV: Wash U, Kenyon, Amherst, Brandeis, Drew, W&L, St. Joe's (Maine), Oneonta St, Haverford, Transylvania, Heidelberg

No JCU  What?

They go into CMU, while higher ranked, and get a tie. They have no losses and should be higher than CMU!

I'm 100% certain that's just an oversight. CMU is one thing - but there is no way Shooter thinks that Kenyon, Transy, and Heidelberg deserve RV consideration and that JCU isn't among the top 5 Great Lakes teams.

Right Shooter? (he types... hopefully)

[Shooter McGavin]

  YES!!! They should be slotted after Hopkins and before Messiah my mistake! Definitely an oversight. Thanks for the catch.