2017 Season - National Perspective

Started by D3soccerwatcher, August 11, 2017, 10:25:42 PM

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Christan Shirk

#255
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 18, 2017, 07:28:50 PM
Hmmm..That is a first...So we do not have an answer yet

The Championship Manual has only ever given the criteria for making at-large selections and then has always said that the regional rankings are done using the same criteria as for the at-large selections. That worked in the past when the "results vs. ranked" criteria was written such that it could be applied to both selections and rankings.  However, the new "results vs. ranked" criteria for this season specifically says that a "ranked team" is defined based on both the third weekly rankings and the final rankings (that are done before making the at-large selections, but only published afterwards).  Obviously, you can't use RvR data based on future rankings, so none of the four rankings can follow the exact literal criteria that the at-large selections will be based on.  But they may follow it in principle; that is, the RvR data for the weekly rankings might be based on the prior two rankings (if two prior rankings exist).  But until we get clarification from the committee, we can't be sure.  Now, for the 2nd weekly rankings, there is only one prior ranking, so we can assume that RvR data used for determining the rankings next week will be based on who was ranked in this week's rankings.
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

Mr.Right

Ok thanks for the clarification. That is what I thought but wanted to make sure. Maybe that is why they changed for a year or 2 to once-ranked always ranked to make it easier. I remember we had teams with 5-6-7-8 wins v ranked opponents and it made it seem very watered down. I imagine they got a ton of complaints from coaches and admin about it because it did not last long

Gotberg

North Park defeated Chicago at Chicago tonight, 1-0.
I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered. - George Best

Gregory Sager

NPU held the Maroons to only one shot in the first half, as the North Siders outshot the South Siders for the match, 10-8, with each side registering three shots on frame. Each side had one great chance that was stoned by the opposing keeper; after Vikings playmaker Peder Olsen had sent a bouncing ball forward into the box that was finished by Matias Warp only a minute into the second half to break a scoreless tie, the CCIW's leading scorer, Carel Kawele, found himself in a breakaway seven minutes later that was thwarted when Chicago keeper Hill Bonin came off the line to make a diving stop. In the 77th minute, Nicco Capotosto of the Maroons sent a free kick into the box that Max Lopez headed, looking for top shelf from point-blank range, but NPU keeper Mathias Stulen managed to punch it up over the crossbar.

This was the signature win that North Park (12-1-1) has been looking for all season. The Vikings came into the match ranked second in the Central Region behind Chicago, which is now 13-2, so the two Windy City sides will no doubt switch places in the next ranking, should NPU knock off Case Western Reserve this coming weekend.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

just4kix

Ryan - I enjoyed your column and proposal to eliminate long throws.  Not sure if it's practical, but I'd like to see some real consideration for it at this level.

I will add a few more reasons why I dislike long throws in DIII (and high school for that matter):

1. They are relatively even more dangerous on a too-narrow field (usually due to lack of real estate, but perhaps a coach with a proficient long-thrower might be tempted to move the sidelines in a bit?)

2. Too much pressure on refs to make judgments about contact in the box.

3. More contact = more chance for injuries


Shooter McGavin

Calvin at #4 in the Central Region is a crime. The NCAA committee can claim they know they are doing but that clearly proves they don't have a single clue. Arguably the best team in the country and they are slotted 4th in their respective region! Does the committee even watch these teams play? That's the job right...? Terrible to see.

And don't give me the "they value SOS" bull crap. SOS is certainly a big factor but also watching the teams should be another and I have watched Calvin numerous times over the past 2 seasons and they are remarkable. Such a shame that some of us do more than the actual NCAA committee does in terms of watching these teams.

I have other bones to pick which I will wait until the RvR comes out but Calvin is the most glaring issue this time around. Absolutely awful from the NCAA "know-it-alls." What a crime! #SaveCalvin

Shooter McGavin

To go further, I have watched multiple teams play multiple times this year (some ranked some not ranked). Out of the teams I have watched multiple times this is how I would rank them for my top 10...

1. Messiah (1st in Mid-Atlantic)---These kids are good and getting better as the season goes on. They find ways to keep winning which is a valuable trait to have come NCAA's.

2. Tufts (1st in New England)---The Jumbos are incredible. So difficult to break down in the back hence the 1 goal allowed all season. Depth, athleticism, skill and quality of coaching paired with experience and defense will have them looking for a 3rd title in 4 years.

3. Calvin (4th in Central)---These kids can flat out play. Anyone that thinks otherwise can hit the road! I am always in awe watching them and think they are a heavy favorite to get back to the Final 4...unless the committee screws them!

4.  St. Thomas (1st in North)---I love this team. How they are so overlooked in the D3 Poll is beyond me. 12th place? Really? You're going to punish them for losing to a quality Capital team early on but reward Hopkins for a terrible 0-1-2 run of form when it counts...? Come on D3Soccer Poll you're better than that! The Tommies will make another run!!!! I'd bet Mr. Right 150 bananas on it  ;)

5. Lycoming (4th in Mid-Atlantic)---Speed and athleticism mixed with a strong defense and aggression will make them difficult to beat. After watching them arguably outplay Messiah I think everyone can agree they are a serious contender come NCAA's...unless the committee screws them!

6. Chicago (1st in Central)---Offensively dangerous and will be overly prepared come NCAA's after the gauntlet of the UAA. Look for Chicago to make a nice push in the tournament.

7. Oneonta St. (1st in East)---How can you not include the Red Dragons? Fierce, fast and ferocious! Only caught a glimpse of them this season but I am confident slotting them here from that glimpse.       

8. Rowan (1st in South Atlantic)---Ah yes Rowan. Just because I don't think they will make the Final 4 doesn't mean I can't value the quality they do have. Offensive firepower mixed with confidence will take them far but defensive struggles and potential over confidence might trip them up. If they can clean some things up in the back look for them to compete.

9. Springfield (6th in New England)---Quality wins over multiple teams has me head scratching at the poor regional ranking. The record also agrees with how talented they are. Let's see how they do in NCAA's...if the committee doesn't screw them too!

10. St. Joe's-Maine (Not ranked in New England) ---This team hasn't allowed a goal all year....still undefeated and a nice win over Bowdoin proving once again they can compete with the best of the NESCAC when needed...this has me confident they can compete with the very best. Not being regionally ranked is yet another crime...0 goals...0 losses...2nd round NCAA's last year and fully reloaded and looking stronger this year yet still no respect. Just flat out terrible by the committee.   

RV (11-25): Trinity (Tx), Brandeis, John Carroll, Lynchburg, Amherst, Cortland, North Park, Buffalo St, Drew, Dean, Newark, Hopkins, Kenyon, W&L, and Oglethorpe.     

lastguyoffthebench


Drew at #7 is interesting.    Could a team that reaches conference finals, potentially finishing 18-1-1, be on the bubble? 

.515 SOS with Catholic and Goucher remaining which should drop it even further.   

Throw in a conference playoff game vs a team with a weak SOS and OOWP, I'm not so sure they qualify to stay in the rankings.   

Go2Goal

Make up your mind Shooter. Your crying for Calvin who has played one of the softest schedules in the country by teams currently ranked in the region. Only 5 of the 45 ranked teams have played easier schedules than Calvin.
Last week your all over Rowan for not having a tougher schedule. Yet the numbers show only 9 of the 45 ranked teams played a tougher schedule than Rowan year to date. And by the way Rowan has a higher SOS than Messiah! Lol

Ejay

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 20, 2017, 09:53:07 AM

Drew at #7 is interesting.    Could a team that reaches conference finals, potentially finishing 18-1-1, be on the bubble? 

.515 SOS with Catholic and Goucher remaining which should drop it even further.   

Throw in a conference playoff game vs a team with a weak SOS and OOWP, I'm not so sure they qualify to stay in the rankings.

Didn't that happen to E-Town in 2015? They were something like 16-2 and didn't get a bid having lost in in conference final. 

PaulNewman

The one I don't get is Springfield who appears to have a very reasonable SoS and yet still suffered vis a vis rankings.

redsoccer06

Quote from: EB2319 on October 20, 2017, 10:09:44 AM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 20, 2017, 09:53:07 AM

Drew at #7 is interesting.    Could a team that reaches conference finals, potentially finishing 18-1-1, be on the bubble? 

.515 SOS with Catholic and Goucher remaining which should drop it even further.   

Throw in a conference playoff game vs a team with a weak SOS and OOWP, I'm not so sure they qualify to stay in the rankings.

Didn't that happen to E-Town in 2015? They were something like 16-2 and didn't get a bid having lost in in conference final.

Ended the season 17-2-1 with wins over Dickinson and Messiah. Drew will definitely be on the bubble even if they reach their conference final because the relative strength of the Landmark conference this year is so weak and arguably their only quality win came over Haverford. Not saying that Drew's SOS will drop this far, but teams with an SOS under .500 aren't even being considered for at large bids. SJC in Maine is 14-0-1 this year without even conceding a goal, but their SOS is under .500, so they aren't even regionally ranked.

NEFutbol90

They are not only undefeated and yet to concede this year, but also statistically show they have players that can compete with some of the regions best teams based on where some players stand with individual stats. Dating back to last year as well they posted impressive defense numbers on the way to reaching the 2nd round for the first time in program history. While I understand they do not take last year into account and the fact they are in one of the worst conferences in the nation, there are two teams ranked in the first regional poll that SJC beat (Johnson & Whales/Bowdoin). After only losing 1 non-impactful player last year, and set to lose only 1 starter this year, with reinforcements ready to play this is a program on the brink of shaking up the order for some of the upper echelon teams in NE.

Shooter McGavin

Quote from: Go2Goal on October 20, 2017, 10:00:35 AM
Make up your mind Shooter. Your crying for Calvin who has played one of the softest schedules in the country by teams currently ranked in the region. Only 5 of the 45 ranked teams have played easier schedules than Calvin.
Last week your all over Rowan for not having a tougher schedule. Yet the numbers show only 9 of the 45 ranked teams played a tougher schedule than Rowan year to date. And by the way Rowan has a higher SOS than Messiah! Lol

You're so caught up with this Rowan thing. Give it a rest. Am I not entitled to my opinion? Didn't think questioning why they played awful teams instead of average teams was a huge deal but apparently for you Jersey Homers it is. If I had any significant issue with Rowan they wouldn't be in my top 10...ever consider that?

Have you watched Calvin? Did you not see them run away to the final before being beat by Tufts? They aren't in a strong conference like Rowan so the SOS will be noticeably different. That's not a good comparison on your behalf it's like apples and oranges. I am assuming you are on the NCAA committee then if you think Calvin shouldn't be higher than #4 in their respective region......

lastguyoffthebench

#269
I think Calvin could be slotted as high as #2, but Chicago should definitely be #1.    I don't have a problem with North Park at #2, but Calvin should at the very least, be ahead of Washington.

Keep in mind, I think when E-town did not make the tournament with 2 losses, their SOS was similar to Calvin...   Calvin will win the AQ and not have to worry.  At the same time, even if they failed to earn the AQ... I cannot see them dropping below #4 in their region at ANY point.   If Dominican or Aurora bump them from a numbers game perspective, then the system has a major problem.

2015 E-town:  17-2-1      SOS .525   RvR 2-1    NO BID
2017 Calvin:   14-0-1       SOS .530   RvR 0-0