2017 Season - National Perspective

[Flying Weasel]

I don't have a strong opinion either was, but curious your reasons for rating Oneonta St. in the Top 10 and ahead of Cortland St.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I don't have a strong opinion either was, but curious your reasons for rating Oneonta St. in the Top 10 and ahead of Cortland St.

I feel that Oneonta St is the better team right now and historically have been more effective come November so for those reasons I have them ahead of Cortland right now. I was impressed when I watched both briefly this season and both should make NCAA's and have a good crack at a run to a Sweet 16/Elite 8. 

[Flying Weasel]

I don't have a strong opinion either was, but curious your reasons for rating Oneonta St. in the Top 10 and ahead of Cortland St.

I feel that Oneonta St is the better team right now and historically have been more effective come November so for those reasons I have them ahead of Cortland right now. I was impressed when I watched both briefly this season and both should make NCAA's and have a good crack at a run to a Sweet 16/Elite 8. 

I asked because . . .

(a) Cortland St. won the head-to-head match-up 4-2 with a statistical advantage as well (shots 19-10, SOG 11-4, corners 10-2), and

(b) Out of conference, Cortland beat Brandeis which is a bit more impressive than Oneonta beating Stevens who is sub-.500 outside of the Empire 8 (both games coming opening weekend); both beat St. Lawrence handily at home in early-to-mid September; and Cortland beat Hobart away while Oneonta only tied Vassar away.

Now, you do have Cortland State's home loss to Scranton back the second week of the season.  And Oneonta escaped Buffalo State with a scoreless tie, while Cortland came back home from Buffalo with a 1-0 loss.

I haven't seen either of them play (and don't have an horse in this race), so could only go by what's on paper, and on that basis Cortland State would seem to have the slight edge if any edge was to be had by either side.  So when you had Oneonta State higher, out of curiosity/interest (not to be argumentative) I figured I'd ask.  Given their success in the past 5 to 7 years, I'd tend to give the benefit of the doubt to Oneonta over Cortland, too.

[Part_Bart]

I don't have a strong opinion either was, but curious your reasons for rating Oneonta St. in the Top 10 and ahead of Cortland St.

I feel that Oneonta St is the better team right now and historically have been more effective come November so for those reasons I have them ahead of Cortland right now. I was impressed when I watched both briefly this season and both should make NCAA's and have a good crack at a run to a Sweet 16/Elite 8. 

I asked because . . .

(a) Cortland St. won the head-to-head match-up 4-2 with a statistical advantage as well (shots 19-10, SOG 11-4, corners 10-2), and

(b) Out of conference, Cortland beat Brandeis which is a bit more impressive than Oneonta beating Stevens who is sub-.500 outside of the Empire 8 (both games coming opening weekend); both beat St. Lawrence handily at home in early-to-mid September; and Cortland beat Hobart away while Oneonta only tied Vassar away.

Now, you do have Cortland State's home loss to Scranton back the second week of the season.  And Oneonta escaped Buffalo State with a scoreless tie, while Cortland came back home from Buffalo with a 1-0 loss.

I haven't seen either of them play (and don't have an horse in this race), so could only go by what's on paper, and on that basis Cortland State would seem to have the slight edge if any edge was to be had by either side.  So when you had Oneonta State higher, out of curiosity/interest (not to be argumentative) I figured I'd ask.  Given their success in the past 5 to 7 years, I'd tend to give the benefit of the doubt to Oneonta over Cortland, too.

For what its worth, Cortland beat Hobart on a huge GK flub and Oneonta had more run of play on Vassar, making this a suspect comparison.  Having seen Oneonta play once, and Cortland twice, it confuses me how their head-to-head went down so one-sided.  Pretty sure we'll see them both in the SUNYAC final and I'd tip towards Oneonta.

[just4kix]

The Cortland-Oneonta game itself might have paradoxically been a suspect comparison.  I was able to tune into the stream after Cortland had taken a 1-0 lead and watched Oneonta run circles around them for the remainder of the first half, scoring once to even it.  I had to sign off, but concluded Oneonta was the better side and would likely prevail.  I saw that they scored early in the second half to take a 2-1 lead and decided I was pretty astute.  Yeah, not so much.

I did not see the half of the game that Cortland dominated (first 15 minutes + last 30), but obviously they did.  If there's a rematch, I sure hope I can catch all 90 minutes (or more) because it promises to be good stuff.

[Ommadawn]

For what its worth, Cortland beat Hobart on a huge GK flub and Oneonta had more run of play on Vassar, making this a suspect comparison. 

It's neither here nor there for this argument (there aren't many teams I would pick over Oneonta right now!), but Vassar did outshoot Oneonta 18 (8 on goal) to 12 (5 on goal) and the corners were even in their early season draw.

[just4kix]

For what its worth, Cortland beat Hobart on a huge GK flub and Oneonta had more run of play on Vassar, making this a suspect comparison. 

It's neither here nor there for this argument (there aren't many teams I would pick over Oneonta right now!), but Vassar did outshoot Oneonta 18 (8 on goal) to 12 (5 on goal) and the corners were even in their early season draw.

I wasn't disputing that point in any way.  We are all about gathering relevant information.

I was pointing out that the lopsided result in the head-to-head matchup (which ought to be the most relevant information) may be a bit misleading.

[PaulNewman]

See you guys. Good luck in tournament! I'm out of here.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-newman-daytona-rolex-sells-230249233.html

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Top 15: Playoff Edition
1. Messiah (17-1-0)
2. Calvin (17-0-1)
3. St. Thomas (17-1-0)
4. Tufts (13-1-2)
5. Chicago (15-2-0)
6. Oneonta St. (13-1-2)
7. Lycoming (16-2-0)
8. Rowan (16-2-1)
9. Trinity Tx (18-1-0)
10. St. Joe's (16-0-1)
11. Drew (17-0-1)
12. North Park (15-1-1)
13. Cortland St (15-2-0)
14. Lynchburg (15-1-2)
15. Springfield (13-1-1)

16-25: Newark (18-2-0), JHU (14-1-2), Kenyon (14-2-2), John Carroll (15-2-1), Amherst (11-3-2), Buffalo St. (14-2-3), CNU (13-2-1), Brandeis (12-4-0), Otterbein (15-2-0), W&L (13-3-1)

RV: J&W (15-1-2), UR (11-2-3),  Transylvania (15-1-0), Ogelthorpe (14-2-1), Dean (14-1-2), Bowdoin (10-3-3), CMU (10-3-3),UW-Platteville (11-3-2), Redlands (13-3-2), St. Norbert (14-3-2), Simpson (15-2-2)

[PaulNewman]

Tufts is a clear #1, and IMO it's not a close call. A single own goal allowed all season in the toughest conference in the country with an above average out of conference schedule.

Tufts will beat Messiah in the Elite 8 and then lose decisively to Calvin in a national semifinal.

[truenorth]

Love these bold predictions.  I think it's a bit easier to accurately predict outcomes in the Premier League where the 20 teams are well known, there is a clear balance of power, and the games are played on regulation size pitches.

In D3 college soccer it comes down to some combination of overall team strength and preparedness, momentum coming into the tournament, and no small amount of luck.  I would suggest that it might actually work against a team like Calvin to have no losses coming into the tournament.  One major setback in a tournament game, and they may not have the experience or mental toughness to make the comeback...

[PaulNewman]

Love these bold predictions.  I think it's a bit easier to accurately predict outcomes in the Premier League where the 20 teams are well known, there is a clear balance of power, and the games are played on regulation size pitches.

In D3 college soccer it comes down to some combination of overall team strength and preparedness, momentum coming into the tournament, and no small amount of luck.  I would suggest that it might actually work against a team like Calvin to have no losses coming into the tournament.  One major setback in a tournament game, and they may not have the experience or mental toughness to make the comeback...

I'm just having fun of course.  Calvin may stumble, but it will not be because they don't have the experience or mental toughness.  Their runs to a national semi and a national final the past two years attest to that.  They might be the mentally toughest team in the country and they have a masterful and inspirational coach.

As for Tufts, I am amazed that folks still doubt.  What else does a team have to do to be recognized as the top team or at least one of top 2-3 in the country?

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Own Top 15

1) Tufts
2) Calvin
3) Messiah
4) St Thomas
5) Chicago
6) Trinity (TX)
7) Rowan
8) Lycoming
9) Kenyon
10) Lynchburg
11) Oneonta St
12) Drew
13) Cortland St
14) Bowdoin
15) North Park/Johns Hopkins/Rutgers-Newark (TIE)

[truenorth]

Agreed on Tufts.  Their two national titles in the past three years clearly demonstrate that a team with talent, cohesiveness and sheer determination can get it done, regardless of what their record is coming in to the tournament.  As an occasional college soccer observer located in New England, I admittedly know nothing about Calvin, but runs to the semis and finals in the past two years certainly indicates that they're legit.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Tufts is a clear #1, and IMO it's not a close call. A single own goal allowed all season in the toughest conference in the country with an above average out of conference schedule.

Tufts will beat Messiah in the Elite 8 and then lose decisively to Calvin in a national semifinal.

Tufts-Rowan-Messiah-Trinity/Calvin.... the generic Final Four(Five) prediction at this point.

Tufts over Messiah