2017 Season - National Perspective

[oldonionbag]

Good point...considering the Jumbos were on the bubble last year. We all know how that ended!

[rudy]

the #1 ranking really isn't that strong this year

Does everyone honestly think it's improbable for anyone outside of #1-4 to win this year? Would it really shock you if RUN or Rowan, or Lycoming or Drew, or Cortland or Oneonta or handful of other teams made a run and won it all? Nobody is going to cake walk to the final.

Agree completely. Whatever team is left standing will need some good fortune and maybe even come down to PK shootout along the way. Tufts scraped by a few games last year to win it. Kenyon game easily could have turned out differently for Tufts.  Teams with the best defense and goal keeping are the favorite imo.

[truenorth]

Good point...considering the Jumbos were on the bubble last year. We all know how that ended!

Yes, here's one anecdotal example.  My son played on a very good Bowdoin team that went to the final four in 2010, along with Messiah, Wisconsin Oshkosh, and Lynchburg.  Of the four teams, Lynchburg had the most pedestrian record coming into the NCAA tournament at 14-5-1.  They were playing on inspiration after one of their teammates died during preseason and one of their key starters had suffered a season ending injury.

Although Bowdoin outplayed them in the semis and led 1-0 through 88 minutes, Lynchburg scored the equalizer in the 89th minute and won in OT.  Lynchburg then legitimately outplayed a 21-1-0 Messiah team in the final and led through 85 minutes, before conceding a controversial equalizer and losing in OT.

Either Bowdoin or Lynchburg could very conceivably have won the final that year.  So, again, no matter how good the regular season record is or how storied the program is, anything can happen in the late stages of the national tournament.

[Flying Weasel]

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Tufts	13-1-2	0.607	3-1-2	13-1-2	1
2.	Amherst	11-3-2	0.619	4-1-1	11-3-2	2
3.	Brandeis	12-4-0	0.630	5-4-0	12-4-0	3
4.	Springfield	13-1-1	0.554	3-0-1	13-1-1	4
5.	Bowdoin	10-3-3	0.585	2-1-3	10-3-3	5
6.	Middlebury	11-5-0	0.613	3-3-0	11-5-0	8
7.	Connecticut College	9-3-4	0.602	1-2-3	9-3-4	6
8.	Williams	8-3-5	0.605	0-3-3	8-3-5	7
9.	Clark	9-4-3	0.531	1-2-0	9-5-3	--
10.	Endicott	11-4-3	0.521	1-2-1	11-4-3	--
11.	Mass-Boston	9-5-3	0.556	0-1-1	9-5-3	9
12.	Gordon	12-5-1	0.531	0-2-0	12-5-1	11

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Cortland State	15-2-0	0.580	4-2-0	15-2-0	1
2.	Oneonta State	13-1-2	0.593	2-1-2	13-1-2	2
3.	Rochester	11-2-3	0.586	3-2-2	11-2-3	4
4.	Buffalo State	14-2-3	0.561	2-0-2	14-2-3	3
5.	Plattsburgh State	12-6-1	0.597	1-5-0	12-6-1	--
6.	Hobart	8-4-4	0.573	1-2-1	8-4-4	5
7.	Vassar	9-4-3	0.561	0-2-1	9-4-3	8
8.	Brockport State	10-6-3	0.583	0-3-1	10-6-3	7

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	17-1-0	0.595	7-1-0	17-1-0	1
2.	Lycoming	16-2-0	0.548	4-1-0	16-2-0	2
3.	Johns Hopkins	14-1-2	0.545	3-1-0	14-1-2	4
4.	Gettysburg	13-4-0	0.545	2-2-0	13-4-0	3
5.	Dickinson	10-5-2	0.587	4-4-0	10-5-2	5
6.	Drew	17-0-1	0.521	3-0-0	17-0-1	6
7.	Haverford	10-4-3	0.591	4-4-0	10-4-3	7
8.	Franklin and Marshall	9-5-2	0.596	2-4-2	9-5-2	--
9.	Lebanon Valley	11-4-1	0.535	1-2-0	11-4-1	8
10.	Elizabethtown	10-6-1	0.576	0-4-0	10-6-1	10

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Lynchburg	14-1-2	0.577	2-1-1	15-1-2	1
2.	Rowan	16-2-1	0.594	2-2-0	16-2-1	2
3.	Oglethorpe	14-1-1	0.566	2-1-0	14-2-1	3
4.	Washington and Lee	13-3-1	0.564	3-1-0	13-3-1	4
5.	Rutgers-Newark	18-2-0	0.558	1-2-0	18-2-0	6
6.	Emory	11-5-1	0.636	2-3-1	11-5-1	5
7.	Christopher Newport	12-2-1	0.540	1-2-0	13-2-1	7
8.	Mary Washington	13-4-1	0.552	1-3-0	13-4-1	8

[Flying Weasel]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	15-2-1	0.592	3-2-1	15-2-1	1
2.	Otterbein	15-2-0	0.560	4-1-0	15-2-0	3
3.	Kenyon	14-2-2	0.572	2-2-1	14-2-2	2
4.	Carnegie Mellon	10-3-3	0.636	2-3-3	10-3-3	4
5.	Thomas More	12-4-2	0.567	1-1-1	12-4-2	7
6.	Capital	11-6-1	0.586	3-4-0	11-6-1	8
7.	Ohio Northern	12-5-2	0.574	2-3-0	12-5-2	5
8.	Heidelberg	11-4-1	0.541	2-3-0	11-4-1	6

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Chicago	15-2-0	0.641	6-2-0	15-2-0	2
2.	North Park	14-1-1	0.569	2-0-0	15-1-1	1
3.	Dominican	12-4-0	0.526	2-1-0	12-4-0	--
4.	Calvin	17-0-1	0.511	--	17-0-1	4
5.	Benedictine	14-5-0	0.532	0-3-0	14-5-0	3
6.	Aurora	12-7-0	0.531	1-5-0	12-8-0	--

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	St. Thomas	17-1-0	0.562	3-1-0	17-1-0	1
2.	Loras	12-5-0	0.572	2-1-0	12-5-0	2
3.	Luther	10-4-4	0.577	1-3-2	10-4-4	5
4.	St. Norbert	14-3-2	0.526	2-2-0	14-3-2	6
5.	UW-Platteville	11-3-2	0.561	0-2-1	11-3-2	3
6.	Simpson	15-2-2	0.524	0-2-0	15-2-2	7
7.	Macalester	10-5-2	0.557	0-2-1	10-5-2	4

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Trinity (Texas)	18-1-0	0.529	5-1-0	18-1-0	1
2.	Colorado College	11-3-4	0.540	2-2-2	11-3-5	4
3.	Mary Hardin-Baylor	13-2-1	0.529	1-1-1	13-2-1	3
4.	Texas-Tyler	10-2-2	0.543	1-1-0	10-2-3	2
5.	Redlands	13-3-2	0.543	0-3-0	13-3-2	5
6.	University of Dallas	11-3-2	0.497	1-2-1	12-3-2	6

[Shooter McGavin]

NE and Mid-Atlantic Regions will get the most bids this year depending on the outcomes of the conference tournaments. The East, GL, and South Atlantic will follow. The Central, North and West bring up the rear. The West is a nightmare and will be lucky to be represented at all after Trinity and Colorado College. Once the AQ's begin to take shape then we will be able to see which regions will get what but I can't see the West getting many at all this year.

[PaulNewman]

Pool C's -- Amherst, Cortland St, John Carroll.....only 16 spots left...or is it 15?  The bubble is already getting smaller and tighter.

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, I'll go with Schilling...after considerable research.  You failed to mention Kenyon won 2-1 in 1996!

[rudy]

Pool C's -- Amherst, Cortland St, John Carroll.....only 16 spots left...or is it 15?  The bubble is already getting smaller and tighter.

Lycoming or Messiah will get one from.mid Atlantic after Saturday game.

[backyarddawg]

Pool C's -- Amherst, Cortland St, John Carroll.....only 16 spots left...or is it 15?  The bubble is already getting smaller and tighter.

Pool C
John Carroll, Amherst, Cortland.

I believe Brandeis and Buffalo State get one so five.

Tonight either Hopkins or Dickinson will get one.

6 will be gone after tonight leaving 13 spots.

[Falconer]

Falconer, I'll go with Schilling...after considerable research.  You failed to mention Kenyon won 2-1 in 1996!

Nicely done, Paul, nicely done. As far as I know, Messiah and Kenyon have played just twice, with the other game (as you know) being in the tournament just a few years ago. Both were in Grantham. 1996 was at or near the end of the coaching career of the late Layton Shoemaker, a longtime friend of mine. Because one of his players (Schlling) had a brother (it might be a twin, but I don't trust my memory on that part) who played for Kenyon, Layton promised to arrange a game. I love that: it's what all college sports should be about, namely, the cultivation of relationships that last and enrich us.

Thanks for taking the challenge. I enjoyed offering it. If you ever have one for me, I'll try to do as well as you did with it.

[backyarddawg]

Falconer, I'll go with Schilling...after considerable research.  You failed to mention Kenyon won 2-1 in 1996!

Nicely done, Paul, nicely done. As far as I know, Messiah and Kenyon have played just twice, with the other game (as you know) being in the tournament just a few years ago. Both were in Grantham. 1996 was at or near the end of the coaching career of the late Layton Shoemaker, a longtime friend of mine. Because one of his players (Schlling) had a brother (it might be a twin, but I don't trust my memory on that part) who played for Kenyon, Layton promised to arrange a game. I love that: it's what all college sports should be about, namely, the cultivation of relationships that last and enrich us.

Thanks for taking the challenge. I enjoyed offering it. If you ever have one for me, I'll try to do as well as you did with it.

Hope to see the series continue yearly for Messiah vs Ford.  The programs seem to challenge themselves with non-conference schedules so let's hope this stays.  Messiah leads 2-1.

[PaulNewman]

Pool C's -- Amherst, Cortland St, John Carroll.....only 16 spots left...or is it 15?  The bubble is already getting smaller and tighter.

Pool C
John Carroll, Amherst, Cortland.

I believe Brandeis and Buffalo State get one so five.

Tonight either Hopkins or Dickinson will get one.

6 will be gone after tonight leaving 13 spots.

Now you and rudy are doing a different project, projecting ahead, which also would be interesting.  Obviously at least several more definite Pool Cs are coming, like the Messiah vs Lycoming loser.  I was just counting the ones that already have happened.  I agree Brandeis is a definite.  Not so sure about Buff State.  And some others we might think are sure things could be dependent on outcomes over the next 3 days.  What if Oglethorpe loses.  And if Capital if beats Otterbein, which I would bet on.  OWU could definitely beat Kenyon.  I could go on.  At least a couple of teams that seem like sure fire Pool Cs are going to be left out.

P.S Once you start counting out 18 to 19 Pool Cs and the absolute locks already in place those slots evaporate in a hurry.  Even teams like Kenyon and Otterbein that seem like they should be locks could be in trouble.  Imagine if Springfield also loses, and so on.

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, I'll go with Schilling...after considerable research.  You failed to mention Kenyon won 2-1 in 1996!

Nicely done, Paul, nicely done. As far as I know, Messiah and Kenyon have played just twice, with the other game (as you know) being in the tournament just a few years ago. Both were in Grantham. 1996 was at or near the end of the coaching career of the late Layton Shoemaker, a longtime friend of mine. Because one of his players (Schlling) had a brother (it might be a twin, but I don't trust my memory on that part) who played for Kenyon, Layton promised to arrange a game. I love that: it's what all college sports should be about, namely, the cultivation of relationships that last and enrich us.

Thanks for taking the challenge. I enjoyed offering it. If you ever have one for me, I'll try to do as well as you did with it.

I can't imagine I'll come up with one that good, but I'll try. 

Here's one....without looking, can you name the minute Kenyon missed the sitter off a cross to take the lead in the 2nd half in 2013?

[rudy]

Pool C's -- Amherst, Cortland St, John Carroll.....only 16 spots left...or is it 15?  The bubble is already getting smaller and tighter.

Pool C
John Carroll, Amherst, Cortland.

I believe Brandeis and Buffalo State get one so five.

Tonight either Hopkins or Dickinson will get one.

6 will be gone after tonight leaving 13 spots.

Now you and rudy are doing a different project, projecting ahead, which also would be interesting.  Obviously at least several more definite Pool Cs are coming, like the Messiah vs Lycoming loser.  I was just counting the ones that already have happened.  I agree Brandeis is a definite.  Not so sure about Buff State.  And some others we might think are sure things could be dependent on outcomes over the next 3 days.  What if Oglethorpe loses.  And if Capital if beats Otterbein, which I would bet on.  OWU could definitely beat Kenyon.  I could go on.  At least a couple of teams that seem like sure fire Pool Cs are going to be left out.

P.S Once you start counting out 18 to 19 Pool Cs and the absolute locks already in place those slots evaporate in a hurry.  Even teams like Kenyon and Otterbein that seem like they should be locks could be in trouble.  Imagine if Springfield also loses, and so on.

A couple good teams with very good records that may be on the bubble if they lose in the conference finals...Mr Right commented on RUN already. 

RUN vs Rowan
Drew vs ETown

RUN is #5 (out of  8)  in region and Drew is #6 (out of 10).   

For Drew..ahead of them are Messiah, Lyco, Hopkins, Gettysburg, Dickinson
Messiah vs Lyco - one will get AQ and the other at large
Hopkins vs Dickinson in Cent Conf Semis (Friday)
Gettysburg vs F&M (Friday)

Projecting ahead..at least one team ahead of Drew will be in the Cent conference finals (Dickinson/Hopkins winner and possibly 2 if Gettysburg wins).  It would be in Drew's best interest for F&M to NOT win the conference finals!  Of course if they beat ETown then it will not matter.  But I'm sure tonight they would like to see an F&M loss to insure at least one AQ  will go to a team ranked ahead of them just in case they lose their final with ETown.

Just an exercise in looking at the possibilities..maybe pointless right now but for the sake of speculating..what the heck..