2017 Season - National Perspective

[Ejay]

Here are 14 teams I think are on the bubble for the final 3 spots. The list is sorted by SOS which seems to be soooo important to the committee. I took a few liberties as I don't think all honestly have a chance, but I included them anyway for comparison sake. You're splitting hairs with many of these, so there will be teams who will feel shafted.

1st   2nd   3rd   School   Record   SoS   RvR   Results   Region
4   5   6   Emory   12-5-1 (.694)   0.641   2-3-1   W3-2 Rochester (H)   SA
3   4   4   Carnegie Mellon   10-4-3 (.676)   0.629   1-3-3   L2-1 Case Western Reserve (A)   GL
6   —   5   Plattsburgh State   13-7-1 (.643)   0.615   2-6-0   W3-1 Cortland State (A); L2-1 Oneonta State (A)   E
7   8   6   Capital   12-7-2 (.619)   0.608   4-5-1   W2-0 Heidelberg (H); T1-1 John Carroll (A); L1-0 Otterbein (A)   GL
5   7   8   Williams   8-3-5 (.656)   0.605   0-3-3   D.N.P.   NE
3   6   7   Connecticut College   9-3-4 (.688)   0.602   2-2-3   D.N.P.   NE
6   5   5   Dickinson   11-6-3 (.625)   0.601   4-6-1   W5-0 Haverford (A); T2-2 Johns Hopkins (A); L1-0 Franklin and Marshall (N)   MA
5   7   7   Haverford   10-5-3 (.639)   0.591   3-5-0   L5-0 Dickinson (H)   MA
2   2   4   Texas-Tyler   11-3-2 (.750)   0.562   1-2-0   W1-0 Texas-Dallas (H); L1-0 Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)   W
3   3   4   Gettysburg   13-5-0 (.722)   0.550   2-4-0   L1-0 Franklin and Marshall (N)   MA
6   5   5   Redlands   14-4-2 (.750)   0.549   0-3-0   W3-0 Pomona-Pitzer (H); L2-1 Cal Lutheran (H)   W
8   7   7   Christopher Newport   13-3-1 (.794)   0.546   1-3-0   W3-0 Salisbury (H); L3-1 Mary Washington (H)   SA
—   3   5   Benedictine   14-6-0 (.700)   0.540   1-4-0   L2-1 Dominican (A)   C
4   6   4   St. Norbert   14-4-2 (.750)   0.529   2-2-0   L2-1 Lake Forest (H)   N

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Pool C At-Large Predictions
1. Messiah
2. Amherst
3. Cortland
4. Brandeis
5. Rowan
6. John Carroll
7. Springfield
8. Hopkins
9. Kenyon
10.W&L
11. Bowdoin
12. Rochester
13. Buffalo St
14. Middlebury
15. CT College
16. Dickinson
17. Emory
18. Colorado College
19. Luther
-------------------------------------
Left Out
CMU
Capital
St. Norbert
Gettysburg
ONU
Tx Tyler
CNU
Plattsburgh
Haverford
Heidleberg

[bestfancle]

With Capital, CMU, and ONU dominating the "Bubble", it is hard to not see one of them getting in and adding to the Great Lakes total. As of right now we have Otterbein, Thomas More, and OWU. JCU and Kenyon are basically locks.

I'm not sure what team makes it (ONU less likely than CMU or Capital), but I could see one of the three in for sure.

[Ron Boerger]

Pool C At-Large Predictions
1. Messiah
2. Amherst
3. Cortland
4. Brandeis
5. Rowan
6. John Carroll
7. Springfield
8. Hopkins
9. Kenyon
10.W&L
11. Bowdoin
12. Rochester
13. Buffalo St
14. Middlebury
15. CT College
16. Dickinson
17. Emory
18. Colorado College
19. Luther
-------------------------------------
Left Out
CMU
St. Norbert
Gettysburg
ONU
Tx Tyler
CNU
Plattsburgh
Haverford
Heidleberg

Can't see CoCo getting a bid after losing to an unheralded Southwestern in the first round of the SCAC tourney.   That is probably the final nail in their coffin - IMO they needed to win that game and U of Dallas in the semis to have a shot.

[Shooter McGavin]

Pool C At-Large Predictions
1. Messiah
2. Amherst
3. Cortland
4. Rowan
5. Brandeis
6. John Carroll
7. Hopkins
8. Springfield
9. W&L
10. Kenyon
11. Buffalo St
12. Bowdoin
13. Rochester
14. Middlebury
15. Dickinson
16. CT College
17. Capital
18. Emory
19. Gettysburg

Bubble Burst
CMU
Plattsburgh
Colorado
Luther

[Flying Weasel]

OFFICIAL

POOL C At-Large Berths (19)
Amherst
Bowdoin
Brandeis
Buffalo State
Capital
Connecticut College
Cortland State
Dickinson
Emory
John Carroll
Johns Hopkins
Kenyon
Messiah
Middlebury
Rochester
Rowan
Springfield
Texas-Tyler
Washington and Lee

POOL B At-Large Berth (1)
UW-Platteville

[Dave B]

POOL C At-Large Berths (19)
Amherst
Bowdoin
Brandeis
Buffalo State
Capital
Connecticut College
Cortland State
Dickinson
Emory
John Carroll
Johns Hopkins
Kenyon
Middlebury
Rochester
Rowan
Springfield
Texas-Tyler
Washington and Lee

And Messiah...

[2xfaux]

So both the Messiah men and women are shut out? 

[Dave B]

So both the Messiah men and women are shut out?

No, they're both in.  The men were left off of the At large list on D3Soccer.

[2xfaux]

And the women as well.

[Christan Shirk]

Apologies to anyone truly thrown by the initial absence of Messiah men and women in the Pool C berth lists on D3soccer.com, although most probably knew they were in and just were picking up on my mistake. We got them corrected fairly quickly, but slightly embarrassing nonetheless. Just simple human error on my part, a Messiah alum, and completely bizarre and coincidental that it was Messiah mistakenly omitted both times as I had them both on my hand-written list as I watched the announcements, but somehow missed typing them into the webpage initially.

[Dave B]

Apologies to anyone truly thrown by the initial absence of Messiah men and women in the Pool C berth lists on D3soccer.com, although most probably knew they were in and just were picking up on my mistake. We got them corrected fairly quickly, but slightly embarrassing nonetheless. Just simple human error on my part, a Messiah alum, and completely bizarre and coincidental that it was Messiah mistakenly omitted both times as I had them both on my hand-written list as I watched the announcements, but somehow missed typing them into the webpage initially.

That's ok.  We know you were just checking to see if we were paying attention.   

And - thanks for all you do on the website.

[Christan Shirk]

Also, while I am one here, let me say "Job well done" to our lead columnist Ryan Harmanis on his at-large predictions.  He basically nailed 17 or 18 of the 19 at-large selections, depending on how you want to score it with the 3 of 6 Pick 'em he offered for the final bubble teams.  The miss was going with Gettysburg instead of Texas-Tyler.  If an at-large was going to come from the West (with geography/bracketing being weighed in addition to merit for the final couple selections), Colorado College seemed to be highest-ranked Pool C option, but on second thought Colorado is in the middle of D-III nowhere making a Texas team a much more attractive selection.  He did one better than I, as I did not think Connecticut would be on the bubble, much less the right side of the bubble.  However, I was convinced that Dickinson was getting selected before Gettysburg, while Ryan saw it as a coin-flip.  In either case, once again the Regional Rankings did a great job fore-shadowing the at-large selections, eliminating significant surprises, and making it relatively easy to successfully predict the selections.

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman didn't do too bad.  From posts last night.....

"Locks and virtual locks IMO -- Amherst, Brandeis, Springfield, Midd, Bowdoin.....Messiah, Hopkins....Cortland, UR, Buff St....Rowan, W&L....JCU, Kenyon....

That's 14....

Now come teams with lots of losses, high SOS and or high number of ranked wins, and, IMO, tough to separate....

Dickinson, Gettysburg, Haverford, Conn Coll, Emory, CMU, Capital....and then ONU, Luther...and maybe Colorado Coll or Tex-Tyler...

Frankly, Capital looks surprisingly good for one of those. Strong SOS and 4 ranked wins and 5 wins if OWU ends up ranked.  Compare to Dickinson and Emory for example.

Mr.Right is right that they may throw in an extra West squad for balance and partly on the theory of less opportunities for ranked wins). I think the 5 chosen from 15 to 19 should come from those first 7 teams listed on the bubble."

Paul Newman's initial bracket thoughts....

Starting with my primary region of interest, JCU has just about the toughest draw in the tournament.  Someone early in the season predicted the Blue Streaks would win the national title.  If they do, they will have earned it.  I'll be surprised if they beat OWU, shocked if they beat Calvin, and then triple shocked if they beat Chicago (presuming form holds and no major upsets which of course will happen somewhere in the overall bracket).  That would just get them to the Elite 8, with a team like Lynchburg or Trinity (TX) looming just to get to Greensboro.  Mind you, I watched the JCU OAC tourney game with Capital and was extremely impressed.  They have a handful of real danger players.  JCU is VERY good but the draw is a monster.  With a few exceptions, most teams could lose any game in front of them, and that is certainly true for Kenyon.  I have strong family ties to Transy but I won't be pulling for the Pioneers.  Kenyon beat Otterbein earlier in the season and it's tough to beat a very good team twice.  All that said, I like Kenyon's draw a lot.  Very fair opportunity and I don't see anyone in that whole quadrant that just scares the heck out of me.  In the upper portion of the quad, North Park has a golden opportunity and likely will not have a better chance than they are getting this year.  I don't see a real threat for them until the Elite 8 other than W&L, and W&L has to get there first.  St Thomas has a decent path, although you have to wonder what might happen in a possible 2nd round tilt with under-the-radar but perennial powerhouse Loras.

Elsewhere, a Tufts versus Rowan Sweet Sixteen matchup no doubt at Tufts would be a tasty treat for all of us D3 fans.  But can Rowan get by Johns Hopkins??? Talk about a heck of a 2nd round matchup.  Lycoming has a tricky 2nd round game versus Drew or surging F&M, and then does anyone want to bet against Brandeis surviving the Newark-Bowdoin winner?  A Tufts-Brandeis clash would be a New England classic, and while many are going to pick Lycoming to get through, I'm not sure Tufts is a great matchup for them since Tufts can match and exceed Lycoming's physicality (and Tufts most likely would be at home).  I think Lycoming has to hope they get Rowan or Hopkins instead.

I don't see anyone bothering Messiah much to at least the Elite 8, and even then I don't see a challenger I would bet on.  Messiah has a very attractive draw.  Cortland, Oneonta and Amherst are all good, but I don't see any of them beating Messiah if the Falcons play a reasonably strong game.  How tasty would a Tufts versus Messiah national semi be???

It's put up or shut up time for Chicago.  A good draw at least to the Sweet 16, and then maybe Calvin waiting (although Calvin and OWU tend to alternate years in what has become an almost yearly affair).  Not sure Chicago would be good enough for Calvin and on the other hand likely would have too much firepower for OWU or JCU.  At the bottom of that quad, will Trinity finally break through?  Lynchburg is tough as nails, but they also aren't going to blow teams out so they will be at risk of getting nicked before getting to Trinity, and maybe by the Dickinson- Emory victor. 

My Final Four?  Well, looks like most of us are going to include our own teams, so I'll go with....Kenyon, Trinity, Tufts, Messiah.

[Mr.Right]

I am sorry but I really think Chicago got screwed. They should be sitting right where North Park is and North Park should be where Chicago is. The only reason they are not is because North Park beat them 1-0 about 3 weeks ago. I happened to catch the 2nd Half of that game and Chicago was the better side. I mean I just do not understand how North Park jumped Chicago in the Final ranking without either team losing. Chicago has a significant SOS advantage and RvR advantage. It doesn't make much sense except for 1 game that happened 3 weeks ago that jumped North Park over Chicago this week. Also, the North Park pod looks significantly weaker than any other pod by a long shot.