2017 Season - National Perspective

[blooter442]

I can't say I disagree with the perspective of Rutgers-Newark, but funny to see some shade thrown in their press release about the tournament this weekend.

"The Rutgers University-Newark men's soccer team - the 2017 New Jersey Athletic Conference Champions and owners of the most wins in the entire nation (20) - will surprisingly be on the road for the first weekend of the NCAA Division III Men's Soccer Championship, it was announced Monday by the national office."

[OldNed]

I can't say I disagree with the perspective of Rutgers-Newark, but funny to see some shade thrown in their press release about the tournament this weekend.

"The Rutgers University-Newark men's soccer team - the 2017 New Jersey Athletic Conference Champions and owners of the most wins in the entire nation (20) - will surprisingly be on the road for the first weekend of the NCAA Division III Men's Soccer Championship, it was announced Monday by the national office."

Blooter,

sure, they have the most wins in the country, but they've also played more games than just about anyone.  I did a quick scan on the national rankings and I only saw one other team (Carthage) that had played 22 games.  Some of the other top teams like Calvin, Drew, and Trinity might have matched or surpassed 20 wins if they had the opportunity to play 22 games.

That being said, yeah I think if I were a RUN fan I would be a little annoyed too that they have to go on the road. 

[jknezek]

I'd be a little annoyed also, but when playing 22 games in the NJAC and surrounding area, ending up with only 4 against RROs is pretty sad. You will get at least 2 just from NJAC Conference and NJAC Conference Tournament play. That really doesn't say much about their schedule though of course that can be hard to predict. But still, out of 11 non-conf, non NJAC tourney games, you think they'd have stumbled on at least one or two more.

If you are 11-0 at home on the season though, you probably really want those early round home games. And then you see W&L hosting and it's got to be a little more salt on the wound.

[blooter442]

Ned and jknezek, I agree with you both that seeing the number of wins as being a perhaps misguided sticking point, given 22 regular-season games. Definitely more than the max of 19-20 that I've anecdotally seen around the national rankings. My point was more related to -- and, to be sure, there is no criteria re: hosting sites that says anything about NSCAA rankings being a determinant factor in seeding -- the fact that RUN is #9, Brandeis is #19, and WConn. and Bowdoin are unranked. But, as we've covered in other forums, geography can often trump "seeds," and NSCAA rankings do not constitute official "seeds" by any means, so putting a given pod in MA (as being somewhat central between NJ, CT, and ME) is understandable.

[jknezek]

Ned and jknezek, I agree with you both that seeing the number of wins as being a perhaps misguided sticking point, given 22 regular-season games. Definitely more than the max of 19-20 that I've anecdotally seen around the national rankings. My point was more related to -- and, to be sure, there is no criteria re: hosting sites that says anything about NSCAA rankings being a determinant factor in seeding -- the fact that RUN is #9, Brandeis is #19, and WConn. and Bowdoin are unranked. But, as we've covered in other forums, geography can often trump "seeds," so putting a given pod in MA (as being somewhat central between NJ, CT, and ME) is understandable.

Oh I didn't care about the NSCAA, I more looked at Regional Rankings. The two teams with the lowest percentage of games against RROs in the South Atlantic Region are both on the road in pods, despite being higher in the Regional Rankings than W&L. That's got to stick in your craw. Now I think Ogelthorpe has at least some excuse for their light RRO schedule, sitting on somewhat of a geographic island, but RUN really doesn't. Personally I think Ogelthorpe didn't apply to host, or they definitely got shafted for geography when it wasn't necessary. RUN... well, that area is rich with good teams. Sometimes you just get unlucky and I feel like they probably fall in that category this year with other teams in the PA/NJ area getting pods that in many years might have gone to them.

[PaulNewman]

I'd be a little miffed as a RUN fan too, but in fairness, the last two years Montclair and Rowan were all set to host through to the Final Four.  Neither could get by Tufts at home in the 2nd round.  Which, come to think of it, goes back to the point about ability of a team versus the seeding of a team.  At least in hindsight one might say MSU and Rowan were a tad unlucky to draw Tufts despite at least one of those years Tufts being viewed as borderline to get a bid at all.

[Ron Boerger]

I can't say I disagree with the perspective of Rutgers-Newark, but funny to see some shade thrown in their press release about the tournament this weekend.

"The Rutgers University-Newark men's soccer team - the 2017 New Jersey Athletic Conference Champions and owners of the most wins in the entire nation (20) - will surprisingly be on the road for the first weekend of the NCAA Division III Men's Soccer Championship, it was announced Monday by the national office."

I have to LOL at having the balls to complain about travel when you're no better than fourth in your regional rankings.   

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Here is where things get interesting. These final rankings do then result in another data set of vRRO. The national committee will then consider that new set of vRRO and rearrange if they need to. This is how I understand all committees do in all sports. The fourth set of vRRO is considered and is used by the national committee to make any final changes to the final rankings. Basically, they create a fourth week's rankings, get a final data set of the vRRO, and make their final adjustments accordingly.

Not sure if that helps anyone, but that is how the fourth set of vRRO is used and, no, a fifth set is not suddenly created. It simply brings everything to a close.

I know you know your stuff, so I am sure this is true.  And thanks for sharing your insight and knowledge.

So, than in essence their is a "fifth ranking", or call it a "modified fourth ranking" ("final changes" as you call it), or say it's merely the "at-large regional queue".  It's just semantics, I guess, except that the Pre-Championships Manual makes no mention of a fifth ranking or a modified fourth ranking, probably better to stick with the later description: "at-large regional queue".  Or I guess the initial fourth ranking could be considered a pre-fourth ranking, so that the final order is the official fourth ranking. 

Not sure why the Pre-Championship Manual couldn't spell the process out a bit more, a bit better.  If there is a sequence of two rankings/orderings of teams done Sunday afternoon/evening, than why not just say that in the manual.  And why not clearly say which ranking(s) the RvR data is based on for each of the four five rankings.

This leads to some questions. First, can these "final changes" involve teams moving in and out of the ranking/queue? Or is it only a matter of rearranging the same set of teams that were in the initial fourth ranking?

And, what are the rankings that they release after the tournament fields are announced?  The initial fourth rankings or the modified fourth rankings/fifth rankings/at-large qeue?

Anyway, Paul Newman, seems it does work the way you want it to.  That's fine with me, I just don't know what's so hard about spelling out the process in the Pre-Championships Manual.  And I'll concede that Ryan Harmanis may have been trying to relay to me the possibility of a "fifth" ranking or a reordering and I just couldn't be convinced enough to put that in writing on the website because nothing in the Pre-Championship Manual alluded to that extra step.  Of course the Manual doesn't explain that only one team for each region is on the board at one time.  It's seems to have become well known that it works like this, but again why not simply state that that's how the process works in the Pre-Championships Manual.

The thing to keep in mind is that there are no final rankings until the committee commits to them. So, there aren't any fifth rankings. They take the fourth week rankings from the RACs, make adjustments, and then to be fair to the updated information (vRRO) adjust a last time. It is just an extra step in the process. Yeah, there are a lot of things we wish the Pre-Championship Handbooks would spell out, but a lot of that is to allow the committees some latitude with a lot of the process. You write it out too detailed, you box the committees in to something that may not be wise.

I learn more talking to committee members than I do reading the handbook.

Also, keep in mind the committees are probably doing the work while games are taking place. That isn't always consistent, but I have found some commonalities. Let's use basketball as an example. I know the RACs in both genders are talking in the morning and doing their votes - again with different results based on variables for later results (Rankings 1, Rankings 2, Rankings 3). The national committee then works from the rankings the RACs sent per the outcome/scenarios that took place. On the men's side, they have been working for a few weeks on how they will pick and start the process while games are underway. Occasionally, stopping if they have to wait for games to finish to make a final decision on things. The men have actually had their picks done a short time after all games are complete. The women have waited a bit longer, but still start work in the afternoon.

And yes, teams could absolutely move in or out of the rankings at the very end when the national committee makes the final adjustments. The RACs actually vote on more than just the number posted for their regions. They have to because I know in both the men and women that someone not "ranked" got to the "table" near the end. The RACs may vote on double the number of teams they actually rank. So the national committee sees more teams ranked than are officially posted and can absolutely move a team in or out accordingly - thus possibly dramatically adjusting the vRRO.

The manual may not address specifically how the selections work, but it isn't a secret. I am not sure why it isn't described, that's up to the committees and the NCAA. One team from each region is at the "table" to be considered. The best team from the crop is picked and a team from that respective region replaces the team selected. Then the process starts all over again. No region can have multiple teams at the table at the same time.

Now, a committee may do some prep work and state who they know will be selected and plan for it ahead of time. They still go through the process, but to save time we all know teams that are slam-dunk at-large picks especially if there are upsets in conference tournaments. This allows the committees to work in detail on the harder selections later in the process.

I plan to talk to the men's committee chair in the near future. I will try and "glean" (for those who know what that means LOL) more info. I know individuals on both committees, so I can get more in the coming weeks as well.

[Mr.Right]

                                                                  North Park                Wisc-Platteville       
Westmin. (Mo.) vs Wis.-Platteville                  Wisc-Platteville
                                                                                                                               W&L
N.C. Wesleyan vs Oglethorpe                        Ogelthorpe
Mary Washington vs Washington & Lee          W&L                         W&L     
                                                                                                                                                                 St.Thomas
Wis.-Superior vs St. Thomas (Minn.)             St. Thomas                St. Thomas             
Cal Lutheran vs Loras                                  Loras
                                                                                                                               St. Thomas
Medaille vs Otterbein                                   Otterbein
Transylvania vs Kenyon                                Kenyon                      Kenyon
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chicago vs Lake Forest                                Chicago                      Chicago
Dominican vs. Capital                                  Capital
                                                                                                                                Chicago
John Carroll vs OWU                                    John Carroll
Calvin vs Thomas Moore                              Calvin                         Calvin
                                                                                                                                                                 Chicago
Lynchburg vs. Penn St                                 Lynchburg                   Emory
Dickinson vs. Emory                                    Emory

                                                                                                                                 Trinity
Trinity vs. Texas Tyler                                  Trinity                         Trinity
Mary Hardin vs. Willamentie                         Mary Hardin
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                 Tufts                           Tufts
St. Joe's vs Mitchell                                     St. Joes
                                                                                                                                   Tufts
Rowan vs Cabrini                                         Rowan                        Rowan
Johns Hopkins vs DeSales                            John Hopkins
                                                                                                                                                                  Lycoming
Lycoming vs Lehman                                    Lycoming
F&M vs Drew                                               Drew                          Lycoming
                                                                                                                                   Lycoming
Brandeis vs West. Conn                                Brandeis
RNU vs Bowdoin                                           Bowdoin                    Brandeis

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Messiah vs Castleton                                    Messiah                     Messiah
Buff State vs Hobart                                     Hobart
                                                                                                                                   Middlebury
SUNY Cortland vs Mt. St. Mary                      Cortland                     Middlebury
Middlebury vs Stevens                                  Middlebury
                                                                                                                                                                   Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta v WPI                                    Oneonta                    Oneonta
Rochester vs. Conn College                           Rochester
                                                                                                                                    Oneonta
Amherst vs Salem St                                    Amherst                     Amherst
Springfield vs Endicott                                  Endicott

SEMI-FINAL                       FINAL                  CHAMPION
St.Thomas vs. Chicago           Chicago
Oneonta vs Lycoming              Lycoming                 Chicago

[Saint of Old]

http://gocardinalsports.com/news/2017/11/8/longtime-plattsburgh-state-head-mens-soccer-coach-chris-waterbury-announces-retirement.aspx

Waterbury retires.

This man was real class all round!!
A big shame that Cardinals did not dance this year.

He built a great program over 33 years and is retiring just shy of 500 wins.

Don't make coaches like this anymore.

He was a credit to Plattsburgh, SUNYAC, D3 and College soccer overall.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Here is mine!

Round of 32

NP
Platteville
NCW
MW
St. Thomas
Loras
Otterbein
Kenyon
Chicago
Capital
JC
Calvin
Lynchburg
Emory
Trinity
MHB
Tufts
St. Joe's
Rowan
Hopkins
Lyco
F&M
Brandeis
Newark
Messiah
Hobart
Cortland
Midd
Oneonta
UR
Amherst
Endicott

Sweet 16

NP
MW
Loras
Kenyon
Chicago
Calvin
Emory
Trinity
St. Joe's
Rowan
Lyco
Brandeis
Messiah
Midd
Oneonta
Amherst

Elite 8
NP
Kenyon
Chicago
Trinity
Rowan
Brandeis
Messiah
Oneonta

Final 4
Kenyon
Trinity
Brandeis
Messiah

Final
Trinity
Messiah

Champion
Messiah 2-1 OT
[/quote]

Only half of my Elite 8 teams have survived 

[rudy]

Here is mine!

Round of 32

NP
Platteville
NCW
MW
St. Thomas
Loras
Otterbein
Kenyon
Chicago
Capital
JC
Calvin
Lynchburg
Emory
Trinity
MHB
Tufts
St. Joe's
Rowan
Hopkins
Lyco
F&M
Brandeis
Newark
Messiah
Hobart
Cortland
Midd
Oneonta
UR
Amherst
Endicott

Sweet 16

NP
MW
Loras
Kenyon
Chicago
Calvin
Emory
Trinity
St. Joe's
Rowan
Lyco
Brandeis
Messiah
Midd
Oneonta
Amherst

Elite 8
NP
Kenyon
Chicago
Trinity
Rowan
Brandeis
Messiah
Oneonta

Final 4
Kenyon
Trinity
Brandeis
Messiah

Final
Trinity
Messiah

Champion
Messiah 2-1 OT

Only half of my Elite 8 teams have survived 

For one..don't bet against Tufts.  They find a way to win.  Gotta have them in sweet 16 at least. I suspect they will also take out Hopkins this weekend to get to Elite 8 but that will be a good game.  I took a shot at Kenyon too..should have known better but had to take one underdog.   Hard to go against Calvin as well.   I only picked final 4 so can't fully compare results..

Kenyon - OUT
Messiah
Calvin
Tufts

Kenyon out so I got 3 left until this weekend.  Brandeis has a chance but I wouldn't count on it.   I think the winner of Tufts/Hopkins will move on to final 4.   Calvin and Chicago should be good..I think Calvin wins that one.  Chicago hopes to get over the hump this year but playing Calvin in sweet 16 does not help their chances (ask Messiah from last year..tough loss in 2OT with a minute or so to go before PKs..ugh)

[Shooter McGavin]

Still have 6/8 and 3/4 left but my champion is gone 

Round of 32
North Park (given)
Westminister
Ogelthorpe
W&L
St. Thomas
Loras
Otterbein
Kenyon
Chicago
Capital
OWU
Calvin
Lynchburg
Dickinson
Trinity
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Tufts (given)
St. Joes
Rowan
Hopkins
Lyco
Drew
Brandeis
Bowdoin
Messiah
Buff St
Cortland St
Stevens
Oneonta St
CT College
Amherst
Springfield

Sweet 16
NP
W&L
St. Thomas
Kenyon
Chicago
Calvin
Lynchburg
Trinity
Tufts
Hopkins
Lycoming
Brandeis
Messiah
Cortland
Oneonta
Amherst

Elite 8
NP
St. Thomas
Calvin
Lynchburg
Tufts
Lycoming
Messiah
Amherst

Final 4
St. Thomas
Calvin
Lycoming
Amherst

Final
St. Thomas
Lycoming

Champion
Lycoming 2-2 (wins in PK's 5-4)

[lastguyoffthebench]

Late to the party, but I have Messiah over Calvin....

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Late to the party, but I have Messiah over Calvin....

We have missed you