Mid-Atlantic Region

[SierraFD3soccer]

Midweek Games of Note (Region V)


Over in Lancaster, F&M with a typical, solid 2-1 win over the Muhles. Game was 2-0 after goals in each half, with M scoring pretty late to make it a little nervy. I didn't let the video run too long while spot-checking, but I don't know of the Dips are going to break down better competition with this approach. Switching the point of attack with long diagonal balls is kind of low percentage against teams with better organization.

Being a parent of a F&M player, I've had the chance to see all their games in person. You are correct as to the diagonal balls and being a typical F&M game (only one game where F&M scored three goals and only one win with a 2 goal difference- outside of Stevens no team has scored more than 1 goal).  However, F&M had many other opportunities which it was not able to convert (Muhl keeper had 8 saves).  F&M dominated the possession the first 75 min. and for reasons I won't share the defense went a little sideways and Muhls scored.  Once they gave up the goal, they reestablished its defense and rode out the rest of the game.

F&M had a rough start, but I wouldn't discount them too much yet (1-1-1 in first three since 5-0-1) Often they have 4 or 5 freshmen on the field that are only getting better (6 FR saw time yesterday).  They generally only have 2 or 3 seniors on the field and couple of juniors. So a young team getting better. Like many Centennial teams, they'll grind it out by playing strong defense and taking advantage of other teams while possessing the ball.

[Hopkins92]

Thanks for the recap, Sierra! As I said, I was "spot-checking" which really amounts to time hopping to get a sense of the game and then honing in on a goal, then spot-checking again. I like to find a good 5 minutes or so in the middle of each half to get a good sense of what's going on. But, full disclosure, it's not like I'm getting a full handle on all the nuances.

I will say, as you may gather from my handle, I have a pretty obvious bias... With that said, I have backed off of my overly critical approach to viewing F&M for two main reasons:

1) Results. Kind of speaks for itself. Similar to Tufts and some versions of Amherst. It might be brute-ball or chaos-ball, but it is very effective and leads to trophies and bids to the post-season. There aren't style points, and that's something I've had to... not resign myself to, but just acknowledge that at this stage, it's not the coaches job to play the beautiful game.

2) This coach has a system, and while sometimes things get muddy on the field, there is a purpose and the entire squad is aware of the expectations and they are committed to it. See point #1. (Though, frankly, that wasn't what I saw last night.. not nearly as frenetic as I've seen in the past.)

ETA - Just want to be clear, in terms of discounting them... They are exactly who I would expect them to be, which is pushing for a CC title and/or looking to get out of the first weekend of the NCAAs. If you've seen me talking about my alma mater, I can be pretty critical... That's not because I think they're not a good squad, more that I have high expectations... Same thing goes with a squad like the Dips.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Totally understand as to spot checking. I do it myself, especially as to limited time.

F&M over the last two games has possessed about 70%. McDaniel parked the bus (only had one shot on goal).  Muhl did not do that.  Never got the point about the "chaos" or "brute" tag for F&M. Maybe over the years that was the case as my son has only been there for two years. 

From what I have seen in person and later on video, is that F&M tend to work from the back and mostly down the sidelines.  Teams then try to high press and the backs/gk break the press by putting it up the field. They have a lot of good, good first touch players. They will at times work through the middle, but not often.  They also consistently play east/west.  They play tight defense all over the field and not just in the back 1/3rd which may be where the chaos comes from.  They also will swarm and eliminate most of player with the ball's options which may be the reason for the choas/brute reputation. 

FYI, I played in a D3 program, coached a bit and reffed.  I also totally understand as to your bias which makes sense. JHU has been a very successful program which is great for the Cent. Conf. Our son has had some club teammates play for them and they generally enjoyed their experience.  The final regular season game may be a great game! 

Also when is Homewood getting a new turf field? Kind of looking like the Superdome in the 70's right now.

[Hopkins92]

Please keep posting! It's great to have folks that can help us drill down on specific teams, especially a team with the years and years of success like F&M.

Brute does not apply to the Dips. Chaos, at times, does (IMO). And part of that is the "energy" that comes from the bench, especially when they get up for big opponents. Not a slight of the Muhles, but that was not the vibe last night. They have another gear on the high press (when they need it) and they go from a team of one and two touch, to a team that will launch balls deep and not focus on the possession game as much. It's purposeful and very well-orchestrated.

What I have learned over the years is that they have high quality players, and when they decide to flip a switch, it can very quickly overwhelm even the most disciplined and quality teams. You can high press all you want, you have to convert the chances that it creates, and the Dips are more than capable of doing so.

[Ejay]

I'm sure Hop will put together a great analysis, but I was poking around Region IV & V schedules, so thought I'd share this weekend's games (EJay's GOTW in bold):

Centennial Matchups:
Washington v Ursinus   
Swarthmore v McDaniel
Haverford v Muhlenberg
Dickinson v Franklin and Marshall
Johns Hopkins v Gettysburg

Landmark Conference
Goucher v Sranton
Juniata v Elizabethtown
Susquehanna v Moravian
Catholic v Drew

MAC-Commonwealth
Widener v York (Pa.)
Eastern v Stevenson
Alvernia v Hood      
Lebanon Valley v Albright
Messiah v. Christopher Newport

MAC-Freedom
Valley Forge v FDU-Florham
King's v Stevens
Delaware Valley v Lycoming
DeSales v Wilkes
Arcadia v Misericordia

NJAC
RU-C v New Jersey City   
TCNJ v William Paterson   
Ramapo v Montclair
Stockton v Kean   
Rowan v RU-N

PREDICTIONS:

Johns Hopkins v Gettysburg
On paper this is a battle of offense vs defense.  Hopkins has only conceded 1 goal this season, while Gettysburg has netted 18. Both teams are undefeated and a conference win would massive. Even though Hopkins has struggled to score this year, I think their high percentage of possession eventually leads to a late 2H goal. Meanwhile, the Bullets channel Picket's Charge and throw everything at the visitors but end up on the losing end after coming so close by hitting the woodwork 2-3x.
Hopkins 1 - Gettysburg 0

Catholic v Drew
A week ago I would have predicted a Catholic win. The Cardinals have some very good results this year and are the returning Landmark Champs. Drew's schedule has been relatively soft and the Goucher draw was concerning.  But Catholic's recent form has been off, and their recent loss to an underwhelming Eastern squad is even  more concerning. I think Drew's dynamic duo of Tyson (7g, 4a) and Kiernan (8g, 4a) will be too much for Catholic, and the Rangers grab a win at home.
Drew 2 - Catholic 0

Messiah v. Christopher Newport
Props to Messiah for continuing to test themselves against stiff non-conference competition. They're trying to find a game but have pretty much annihilated everyone.  Even the late 2-1 win over NYU was a bit misleading if you look at the stats (19 shots vs 9, and 8 on goal vs 2). At 7-1, CNU is no pushover and they did pick up back-to-back wins over top 25 teams. But this trip to PA marks only their second road game of the year, and I expect the 1,000 fans will not allow CNU to get comfortable. I also think Messiah will want to make a statement after Chicago's dismantling of North Park.
Messiah 2 - CNU 0 

Arcadia v Misericordia
Arcadia is the 3rd best team in the MAC-F and will need to play their best if they want to grab 3 points. But they've yet to pick up a quality win among their 6 season victories.  Misericordia returns 4 all-conference (two all-region) selections from last year's 12-5-1 team.  And while they're not overwhelming anyone this year, they have more talent and should win easily.
Misericordia 2 - Arcadia 0

Rutgers-Camden v New Jersey City
Game of the week in the NJAC for the simple reason of seeing whether NJCU is for real. RU-C is a .500 team with some bad loses.  NJCU is 6-1 and have only conceded 2 goals, plus they just put up a 6-spot on Rowan for their first conference win since 2013! Are they a contender or pretender??  I think they win, but I don't know that it will ultimately mean much.
NJCU 3 - RU-C 1

[PaulNewman]

^^^^^  Ejay, this is great.  Well done!

[Hopkins92]

^^^^^  Ejay, this is great.  Well done!

Yep, have some karma!

[PaulNewman]

Ejay, your line about Messiah wanting to have a response statement to Chicago rang true as I read it.

Then I wondered if it is true.  These are the sorts of things that fascinate me.

Messiah and Chicago imo are the two teams (at this moment) who believe they should and will win against anyone, including each other.  It's sort of like the advantage SOL talks about for teams that have been to Final 4s or won the whole thing knowing what that feels like with attendant expectations.  Doesn't mean they don't deeply respect their opponents and know they could lose if they don't play well, but any sliver of intimidation goes in the other direction.  A lot of very good teams play a Messiah with a capital "M" or an Amherst with a capital "A," and it's like even though they believe they can win and get really jacked up for the game they're sometimes starting the game almost feeling like they're already down 1-0.  That's a lot to overcome even for very, very good teams.

I thought one of the great things about last year's Final 4 was that all four felt equally confident.  Any of the four could have won and none had any real psychological advantage over the others.  And the games followed suit in terms of how they played out.  Two semifinals that were decided in OT and then a final that went to PKs.

[Flying Weasel]

Messiah v. Christopher Newport
Props to Messiah for continuing to test themselves against stiff non-conference competition. They're trying to find a game but have pretty much annihilated everyone.  Even the late 2-1 win over NYU was a bit misleading if you look at the stats (19 shots vs 9, and 8 on goal vs 2). At 7-1, CNU is no pushover and they did pick up back-to-back wins over top 25 teams. But this trip to PA marks only their second road game of the year, and I expect the 1,000 fans will not allow CNU to get comfortable. I also think Messiah will want to make a statement after Chicago's dismantling of North Park.
Messiah 2 - CNU 0 

This is Messiah's Homecoming (much earlier than typical for Messiah), so the crowd would be much, much larger than 1,000 except that the remnants of Hurricane Ian look to be putting a damper on the Homecoming festivities and the turnout could be much less than typical even if the game is able to be played. 

I agree that it's hard to get a feel for how good CNU is.  I also am not ready to say that Messiah, like Chicago, has separated themselves form the pack.  Hopefully the game gets played and the conditions aren't too bad and we get a quality match.  I doubt the Chicago win over North Park factors in at all, but I may be wrong.   

What I do know is that historically Messiah has had Christopher Newport's number, winning all 7 encounter (5 reg. season, 2 NCAA), most famously the 2008 NCAA Elite 8 match in Newport News, VA when the Captains out-played the Falcons throughout despite going down a player in the first half (2nd yellow) and then losing another (straight red) less than halfway through the second half shortly after taking the lead with a short-handed goal by freshman sensation and handful Winston Mattheisen.  But All-American senior centerback JD Binger's epic game-tying desperation goal with exactly 60 ticks left on the clock forced overtime where sophomore Geoff Pezon's 19th goal of the season and second OT game-winner of the tournament (9 total game-winners that season) cruelly dumped a very dangerous Christopher Newport side out of the tournament after 103 minutes of action.  While there was no love lost between Messiah and Christopher Newport, the Captains earned begrudging respect for the immense effort put forth that day. The Captain's goalscorer Mattheisen was a big, strong forward who wasn't playing like a freshman by that point of the season (if he ever was--he led the team with 16 goals).  Though not that year, he went on to be a 3-time All-American.  Pezon also missed out on All-American honors that fall, but would get recognized the next two years as he completed one of the best offensive careers in Messiah men's soccer history and still the only member of the program's 40-40 club (40+ goals, 40+ assists).

Sorry, I got a bit D-III soccer and Messiah soccer geeky there!  But if I can't do that here, where can I do it?!?!

[PaulNewman]

FW, that's excellent....and indirectly gives some color to why the Captains already feel they're down 1-0.

I tend to agree that Messiah isn't really thinking about Chicago (yet), but I also would bet that the Falcons have noticed.  Partly because they are unlikely to meet before the Final 4 unless something really wonky happens with tourney bracketing.  But on the other hand there are very few teams who start out the season with expectations about the Final 4...and two of them (this year and Messiah maybe every year) are certainly Messiah and Chicago.

Addendum...and this is why I mentioned Calvin.  There may be no coach in D3 better at motivation and the psychological aspects of the journey than Ryan Souders.

[Hopkins92]

Some additional thoughts around the region, which going forward I'll be talking about Region IV and V when I say region... with somewhat of a caveat below. I'm also going to take the crumbs that Ejay left and walk through the games he didn't highlight. (Re-reading this, hopefully it's obvious I'm kidding-- thanks again to Ejay for his excellent coverage and spot-on analysis.)

Edit to Add (ETA): Tropical Storm Ian is going to wreak havoc on a lot of these games. Not sure if we'll see postponements, but the style of play is going to be zany. The Hop-Gbg game is a great example. Favors the Bullets, IMO, as that's on a grass field. Dips game won't be as bad (in theory) bc that's relatively new turf.

* - Just a Captain Obvious note: Both the Messiah v. CNU and the Hopkins v. Gettysburg match-ups pit teams in the Top 25, depending on which poll you favor. FWIW, I think the Bullets take the win with a goal off of long throw in. Messiah is on fire and I don't figure the Captains to slow them down much.

* - In the Centennial, the match-up between F&M and Dickinson is intriguing. I noted earlier in this thread that thought that Dickinson's preseason ranking was too low (9 of 10). They are 6-4, but 2-0 in conf. play good enough for 3rd place. We will see how they measure up against the Dips in Lancaster.

* - Landmark sub-headline feature match is a surprising Goucher (5-1-3) traveling to E-City to take on traditional stalwart Scranton (6-2-1). The (checks web) Gophers haven't had a winning season since 2014, so this start is quite compelling. The Royals' losses came at King's college on the first game of the season and against Catholic, with a tie against Misericordia.

* - MAC Freedom and Commonwealth kick-off conference play this weekend, which I hadn't really realized until scanning the region. In the Commonwealth side of the ledger, let's dial up some drama with Widener (4-4) traveling to play York (5-2-2). Widener started the year with 3 straight losses, but has since ripped 4 from 5, with that loss coming at the hands of the Mighty Ducks up in Hoboken (1-0 scoreline). York has aspirations of larger things (or at least some predicted as much,) and will look to halt a two game skid at the hands of Rochester and Marymount (no slouches to be sure.)

* - MAC Freedom's sub-header feature sees the Ducks (7-0-1) hosting wonky King's College (4-4-2). Probably a fairly easy test for Stevens, but the Monarchs began the season knocking off Scranton at home. They then proceeded to lose 3 in a row including a 5-2 drubbing at home to Immaculata. So... yeah, kind of stretch as a featured game, but important for Stevens to start conf. play off with a solid result.

* - Which brings me to my caveat from above. I have scale of knowledge about these conferences which aligns pretty well with the order listed. I have very little exposure and historical knowledge of the NJAC. I'm going to make an effort to rectify that starting this year, but should be duly noted.

With that said, just on paper in in the standings, I'd put a marker on the Stockton (7-3-1) vs. Kean (4-4-2) tilt. First off, interesting to see if a Kean squad that had a good year last year can right the ship. But Stockton is a team with a decent record that has now started off league play with 2 straight losses. For them, this sure feels like a must-win situation for both the conference aspirations and any hope of Reg. IV rankings going forward.

   

[SierraFD3soccer]

Great analysis.  FYI in the Cent. Conf. only Muhl, McDaniel, and Haverford have grass.  Muhl and Haverford are absolutely ridiculously bad fields, pretty much meadows.  Almost criminal (FYI, both have turf fields - Fords behind their grass field and Muhl has a football field which could have soccer lines)  However, McDaniel has a professional turf field that is pretty amazing.  Probably the best grass field in Maryland at least.

FYI, Dickenson lost to Gettysburg 3-1 on Wed. so they are 4th in the conference.

Unless there is thunder and lightning, the F&M-Dickenson and JHU-Gettysburg games should be played as they are on turf fields.  Right now it looks a little chilly, but not crazy rain for the central PA area.  However that can all change.  Should be a fun weekend.

[Hopkins92]

I don't know why I keep doing that with Gettysburg... Senior moment, as G'burg used to have an ok grass field... last game of my "career" on that field... And, yeah, I got caught relying on the Centennial web site for standings. Thanks for the fix!!

[Hopkins92]

Holy Moly. These Landmark "featured games" sure aren't very competitive. Unless something miraculous/catastrophic happens (perspective), we have two blowouts in the offing.

Middle of the second half, Scranton is up 3-0 on Goucher, Catholic is up 4(!!)-0 on Drew.

Yikes.

[Hopkins92]

Hopkins with another "dominating" performance to take a 1-0 road win. I don't know what possession percentage was, but it must've been close to 70 percent in the second half. Goal came on a bit of bother from free kick, whipped through the six and someone got a touch to ping it in the back of the net. The looked fairly dangerous throughout, but they need guys to just take a half chance/shot more often. I know it's a broken record... but it's just that glaring.

Still only one goal conceded, which is pretty remarkable.

=-=--==

I didn't watch much, but Dips took a t 2-1 win at home. I know it was 2-0 fairly early in the match, so seemed like a pretty comfortable result.

=-=-=-=-=-=

After the Captains took an early and well-deserved lead (in terms of the finish... which was brilliant), the Falcons absolutely ripped them apart in front of a Homecoming crowd on the way to a 4-1 win. Finishes that I saw (first 3) were absolutely stunning. Messiah, as I said in Friday, are on fire right now.