Mid-Atlantic Region

[Falconer]

Just wanted to give a shout out to Widener, who have improved greatly since last season, when the Falcons held them to a single shot in a 6-0 blowout. They are far better than their overall record of 10-5-2, including today's loss to Messiah. The key fact is that they lost their first 3 games of the season by a combined score of 9-4. Since then, they've lost only to Stevens (1-0) and Messiah (3-2). Sean Fatiga is one of the best strikers in the country. He made the Falcons pay when he got behind them early and almost did likewise again later on, when a very good pass to the other forward should have at least been put on frame and is probably a goal if so, given that Pavlevich had come off his line. Fatiga looks bigger than the roster says he is, namely, 5'11" /175 lbs. Much more like 6'1"/ 200 to my eyes. He's very strong and doesn't hesitate to knock defenders down or even run over them. But, highly skilled, so not exactly just a space holder. He wasn't on my radar last year, even though he was named conference offensive player of the year, because the only thing he did in the Messiah game was to collect a YC.

In past years, it was typically Etown and then Lycoming who played excellent second fiddles to the Falcons in the conference. Now that they have both left for greener pastures, this Widener team is doing a decent imitation. Of course, I'm not rooting for them to win the automatic bid, but if they don't I do hope they get an at-large bid. They're big, very physical, and smart, though not particularly fast overall. In my opinion no team has actually played Messiah harder this year, and they could surprise someone if they get to dance.

The Falcons won deservedly, outshooting the Pride 22 (11) to 7 (2). Those 2 SOG were however both high quality goals, and I wouldn't dismiss a claim that their keeper might be the best in the conference. Certainly he played very well and was often tested.

[Ejay]

MAF 2nd Regional Ranking Predictions

Region 4
1. Stevens (13-0-2 and RvR should be 5-0-0)
2. Montclair (12-1-4 and RvR should be 2-0-1)
3. NYU (7-4-2 and RvR should be 1-4-1)
4. Rowan (8-5-4 and RvR should be 1-3-1)
5. Lycoming (9-4-4 and RvR should be 0-4-2)
6. Misericordia (9-3-4 and RvR should be 1-1-0)
7. Lancaster Bible (11-3-3 and RvR should be 0-0-2)

Region 5
1. Messiah (15-0-1 and RvR should be 6-0-0)
2. Hopkins (11-0-5 and RvR should be 4-0-1)
3. F&M (11-1-4 and RvR should be 1-1-2)
4. Catholic (10-2-4 and RvR should be 2-1-2)
5. Elizabethtown (8-4-4 and RvR should be 1-2-0)
6. Drew (11-2-4 and RvR should be 1-2-0)
7. Alvernia (10-2-5 and RvR should be 2-2-1)
HM: Gettysburg (9-3-3 and RvR should be 0-2-2)

So Drew finishes the season 12-2-4, misses the conference tournament, yet currently they sit 5th in the region. Assuming Hopkins/F&M win the Centennial, and Catholic wins the Landmark, what is the possibility they get an at-large? I gotta think tournament 1st round wins for Alvernia, Gettysburg and even Etown should push them above Drew?

[Coach Jeff]

Just wanted to give a shout out to Widener, who have improved greatly since last season, when the Falcons held them to a single shot in a 6-0 blowout. They are far better than their overall record of 10-5-2, including today's loss to Messiah. The key fact is that they lost their first 3 games of the season by a combined score of 9-4. Since then, they've lost only to Stevens (1-0) and Messiah (3-2). Sean Fatiga is one of the best strikers in the country. He made the Falcons pay when he got behind them early and almost did likewise again later on, when a very good pass to the other forward should have at least been put on frame and is probably a goal if so, given that Pavlevich had come off his line. Fatiga looks bigger than the roster says he is, namely, 5'11" /175 lbs. Much more like 6'1"/ 200 to my eyes. He's very strong and doesn't hesitate to knock defenders down or even run over them. But, highly skilled, so not exactly just a space holder. He wasn't on my radar last year, even though he was named conference offensive player of the year, because the only thing he did in the Messiah game was to collect a YC.

In past years, it was typically Etown and then Lycoming who played excellent second fiddles to the Falcons in the conference. Now that they have both left for greener pastures, this Widener team is doing a decent imitation. Of course, I'm not rooting for them to win the automatic bid, but if they don't I do hope they get an at-large bid. They're big, very physical, and smart, though not particularly fast overall. In my opinion no team has actually played Messiah harder this year, and they could surprise someone if they get to dance.

The Falcons won deservedly, outshooting the Pride 22 (11) to 7 (2). Those 2 SOG were however both high quality goals, and I wouldn't dismiss a claim that their keeper might be the best in the conference. Certainly he played very well and was often tested.

Watching today's game I only have one concern for Widener this late in the season, they appeared to be tired 20 minutes into the game.  Hads on the hips bent over and even their big target Fatiga maybe played 40 total minutes.  IMO They controlled the ball better without him on the field

[jdfranklin23]

Having caught only the first half of the Widener vs Messiah, I felt that Widener lived up to their billing for this season.  Fatiga's size, speed and creativity make him very dangerous and this is one of the few games where the Messiah backs made significant errors against a forward.  I think they underestimated him to some extent.  Widener's plan to pressure and play physical worked to some degree to force passes sooner than Messiah has had to in recent games (other than Alvernia).  It'll be interesting to see how the MAC-C playoffs go and wether Widener goes with the same approach if they make the championship game.  Pool C?  Guess we'll know in a little over a week

[PaulNewman]

I don't see a Pool C in Widener's future unless Alvernia stays ranked and Widener beats Alvernia again.  I'd actually give Alvernia a better chance (but can't lose again except to Messiah) on the back of two more impressive ranked wins over Montclair and UR (but UR also could drop out).

Widener should get a nice SoS pop from this week.

[Hopkins92]

Thanks, PN, that's kind of what I was thinking... A little frustrating as Widener handled them quite easily just a couple of games ago.

Hopefully the Pride learn their lesson... You can't wait until your 4th game to start playing. Well, unless you're in the NESCAC I guess.

[Coach Jeff]

Having caught only the first half of the Widener vs Messiah, I felt that Widener lived up to their billing for this season.  Fatiga's size, speed and creativity make him very dangerous and this is one of the few games where the Messiah backs made significant errors against a forward.  I think they underestimated him to some extent.  Widener's plan to pressure and play physical worked to some degree to force passes sooner than Messiah has had to in recent games (other than Alvernia).  It'll be interesting to see how the MAC-C playoffs go and wether Widener goes with the same approach if they make the championship game.  Pool C?  Guess we'll know in a little over a week

I agree that Fatiga size and speed was evident in this game but after watching the entire game, his work rate is a big question mark in his game.  He would lose the ball and just stop playing.  I would also question his fitness level, at this time of the season he probably played only about 40 minutes total.  He needs to step up his fitness to be a top target in the country.

[PaulNewman]

Thanks, PN, that's kind of what I was thinking... A little frustrating as Widener handled them quite easily just a couple of games ago.

Hopefully the Pride learn their lesson... You can't wait until your 4th game to start playing. Well, unless you're in the NESCAC I guess.

Maybe...those first three games look like their toughest 3 game stretch all season, probably by far...Swat when Swat still had high hopes, Cortland, and RUC (see Swat).

[MessageBoardMessi]

Just wanted to give a shout out to Widener, who have improved greatly since last season, when the Falcons held them to a single shot in a 6-0 blowout. They are far better than their overall record of 10-5-2, including today's loss to Messiah. The key fact is that they lost their first 3 games of the season by a combined score of 9-4. Since then, they've lost only to Stevens (1-0) and Messiah (3-2). Sean Fatiga is one of the best strikers in the country. He made the Falcons pay when he got behind them early and almost did likewise again later on, when a very good pass to the other forward should have at least been put on frame and is probably a goal if so, given that Pavlevich had come off his line. Fatiga looks bigger than the roster says he is, namely, 5'11" /175 lbs. Much more like 6'1"/ 200 to my eyes. He's very strong and doesn't hesitate to knock defenders down or even run over them. But, highly skilled, so not exactly just a space holder. He wasn't on my radar last year, even though he was named conference offensive player of the year, because the only thing he did in the Messiah game was to collect a YC.




In past years, it was typically Etown and then Lycoming who played excellent second fiddles to the Falcons in the conference. Now that they have both left for greener pastures, this Widener team is doing a decent imitation. Of course, I'm not rooting for them to win the automatic bid, but if they don't I do hope they get an at-large bid. They're big, very physical, and smart, though not particularly fast overall. In my opinion no team has actually played Messiah harder this year, and they could surprise someone if they get to dance.


The Falcons won deservedly, outshooting the Pride 22 (11) to 7 (2). Those 2 SOG were however both high quality goals, and I wouldn't dismiss a claim that their keeper might be the best in the conference. Certainly he played very well and was often tested.

Watching today's game I only have one concern for Widener this late in the season, they appeared to be tired 20 minutes into the game.  Hads on the hips bent over and even their big target Fatiga maybe played 40 total minutes.  IMO They controlled the ball better without him on the field

Watching and reviewing this game - I have one concern for Messiah - 2 shots and 2 goals.  Both well taken, but both could have been covered. Late in the season means must win games, single elimination,  and further to an older post of mine - GK play has to ready for and up to  moments. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF 3rd Regional Ranking Predictions

Region 4
1. Stevens (14-0-2 and RvR 5-0-0)
2. Montclair (13-1-4 and RvR 2-1-1)
3. NYU (8-4-3 and RvR 2-4-2)
4. Lycoming (10-4-5 and RvR 0-4-3)
5. Rowan (10-5-4 and RvR 1-3-1)
6. Misericordia (11-3-4 and RvR 1-1-0)
7. Lancaster Bible (12-3-3 and RvR 1-0-2)

Region 5
1. Messiah (17-0-1 and RvR 5-0-1)
2. Hopkins (11-1-5 and RvR  4-1-1)
3. F&M (12-1-4 and RvR 1-1-2)
4. Catholic (11-2-4 and RvR 1-1-2)
5. Alvernia (11-3-5 and RvR 2-2-0)
6. Gettysburg (9-3-5 and RvR  0-2-3)
7. Drew (12-2-4 and RvR 1-1-0)

[Falconer]

Thanks, PN, that's kind of what I was thinking... A little frustrating as Widener handled them quite easily just a couple of games ago.

Hopefully the Pride learn their lesson... You can't wait until your 4th game to start playing. Well, unless you're in the NESCAC I guess.

Maybe...those first three games look like their toughest 3 game stretch all season, probably by far...Swat when Swat still had high hopes, Cortland, and RUC (see Swat).

Cortland is the real deal, and they beat Widener 5-2. As for Swat and RUC, regardless of any high hopes they might have had, they now have 27 "blemishes" between them. I don't see evidence here that Widener was actually very good when the season began. They are playing quite a few FY and other younger players. IMO, the evidence suggests that they have very significantly improved since then: they just aren't the same team that lost 2-1 to both of those mediocre teams.

[Hopkins92]

I hope folks understand where I was coming from on Widener: I'm not saying they are a top team in the region, I was just having fun following a team that "traditionally" hasn't really had much success in the last decade or so. And it so happened that once they "righted the ship," they also had a somewhat prolific striker that made it all the more entertaining to track their progress.

So, having read a few posts about "hype" I want to be clear... Fantastic year for the Pride, but I'm not pushing them for a Pool C. They can certainly shock the world (and their conference) but it doesn't seem all that likely. ECAC, maybe?

[paclassic89]

RPI 3rd Regional Ranking Predictions

Region IV

1. Stevens .6619
2. NYU .6315
3. Montclair St. .6161
4. Rowan .5897
5. Lycoming .5862
6. Misericordia .5652
7. PSU Harrisburg .5566

HM Lancaster Bible .5461

RPI has been wrong on Lancaster Bible all season so I assume they stay in the rankings but PSU Harrisburg is right there challenging for a spot.  They play each other in the United East semifinal Friday.  Both are AQ or bust. Top 3 (Stevens, NYU, Montclair) are a tier above everyone else in the region.  4-6 could shuffle around depending on how the committee views SOS and RvR

Region V

1. Messiah .67
2. F&M .6423
3. JHU .6295
4. Catholic .6226
5. Drew .6165
6. Gettysburg .5866
7. Etown .5734

HM Alvernia .5729
HM Widener .5667

F&M leapfrogs JHU with a higher RPI and the H2H win.  JHU could retain the 2 spot due to RvR but I don't see how when H2H is one of the criteria.  The Drew haters are going to be sick but Drew finishes the season with an RPI that puts them 5th in the region and 25th in the country.  Taking nothing else into account, this should be enough for a Pool C.  We'll see how the committee views all the other criteria.  Gettysburg seems to be safe in the bottom part of the rankings looking at their RPI.   The Alvernia loss to Widener midweek hurt them and they could get leapfrogged by Etown but the RvR favors Alvernia.   Widener moves up to the 9th spot after a solid week but they will remain on the outside looking in and are AQ or bust.

[Shooter McGavin]

I hope folks understand where I was coming from on Widener: I'm not saying they are a top team in the region, I was just having fun following a team that "traditionally" hasn't really had much success in the last decade or so. And it so happened that once they "righted the ship," they also had a somewhat prolific striker that made it all the more entertaining to track their progress.

So, having read a few posts about "hype" I want to be clear... Fantastic year for the Pride, but I'm not pushing them for a Pool C. They can certainly shock the world (and their conference) but it doesn't seem all that likely. ECAC, maybe?

Widener has no shot at a Pool C and I don't even feel they will crack the regional rankings.

[Shooter McGavin]

RPI 3rd Regional Ranking Predictions

Region IV

1. Stevens .6619
2. NYU .6315
3. Montclair St. .6161
4. Rowan .5897
5. Lycoming .5862
6. Misericordia .5652
7. PSU Harrisburg .5566

HM Lancaster Bible .5461

RPI has been wrong on Lancaster Bible all season so I assume they stay in the rankings but PSU Harrisburg is right there challenging for a spot.  They play each other in the United East semifinal Friday.  Both are AQ or bust. Top 3 (Stevens, NYU, Montclair) are a tier above everyone else in the region.  4-6 could shuffle around depending on how the committee views SOS and RvR

Region V

1. Messiah .67
2. F&M .6423
3. JHU .6295
4. Catholic .6226
5. Drew .6165
6. Gettysburg .5866
7. Etown .5734

HM Alvernia .5729
HM Widener .5667

F&M leapfrogs JHU with a higher RPI and the H2H win.  JHU could retain the 2 spot due to RvR but I don't see how when H2H is one of the criteria.  The Drew haters are going to be sick but Drew finishes the season with an RPI that puts them 5th in the region and 25th in the country.  Taking nothing else into account, this should be enough for a Pool C.  We'll see how the committee views all the other criteria.  Gettysburg seems to be safe in the bottom part of the rankings looking at their RPI.   The Alvernia loss to Widener midweek hurt them and they could get leapfrogged by Etown but the RvR favors Alvernia.   Widener moves up to the 9th spot after a solid week but they will remain on the outside looking in and are AQ or bust.

I enjoy looking at this style of calculation but I don't see Hopkins getting bumped by F&M despite the H2H win. Hopkins resume with the 4 ranked wins vs F&M 1 ranked win (albeit against JHU) will keep the Bluejays comfortably in 2nd. Wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if F&M was 2nd as you are predicting but I'm not buying it.

Alvernia will remain ahead of Etown as their 2 ranked wins and win% bests Etown mediocre resume. I am most interested to see what happens in 4th thru 7th in region 5. I would think Catholic will hold onto the 4th spot but it's a toss up with Drew being done, yet still boasting a nice resume. Will Gettysburg or Alvernia jump the Rangers? 

Similarly in Region 4, I agree with MAF that Misericordia may slip a bit in the rankings as their SOS will be lower than last week and they lack ranked opponents. 4th thru 6th will be a toss-up there as well.