Mid-Atlantic Region

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Rankings

Region 4 Power
1. Stevens
2. Montclair
3. NYU
4. Lyco
5. Misericordia
6. Rowan
7. LBC

Region 4 Prediction
1. Stevens
2. Montclair
3. NYU
4. Lyco
5. Rowan
6. LBC
7. Misericordia

Region 5 Power
1. Messiah
2. JHU
3. F&M
4. Gettysburg
5. Catholic
6. Drew
7. Alvernia

Region 5 Prediction
1. Messiah
2. JHU
3. F&M
4. Catholic
5. Drew
6. Alvernia
7. Gettysburg

[paclassic89]

RPI 3rd Regional Ranking Predictions

Region IV

1. Stevens .6619
2. NYU .6315
3. Montclair St. .6161
4. Rowan .5897
5. Lycoming .5862
6. Misericordia .5652
7. PSU Harrisburg .5566

HM Lancaster Bible .5461

RPI has been wrong on Lancaster Bible all season so I assume they stay in the rankings but PSU Harrisburg is right there challenging for a spot.  They play each other in the United East semifinal Friday.  Both are AQ or bust. Top 3 (Stevens, NYU, Montclair) are a tier above everyone else in the region.  4-6 could shuffle around depending on how the committee views SOS and RvR

Region V

1. Messiah .67
2. F&M .6423
3. JHU .6295
4. Catholic .6226
5. Drew .6165
6. Gettysburg .5866
7. Etown .5734

HM Alvernia .5729
HM Widener .5667

F&M leapfrogs JHU with a higher RPI and the H2H win.  JHU could retain the 2 spot due to RvR but I don't see how when H2H is one of the criteria.  The Drew haters are going to be sick but Drew finishes the season with an RPI that puts them 5th in the region and 25th in the country.  Taking nothing else into account, this should be enough for a Pool C.  We'll see how the committee views all the other criteria.  Gettysburg seems to be safe in the bottom part of the rankings looking at their RPI.   The Alvernia loss to Widener midweek hurt them and they could get leapfrogged by Etown but the RvR favors Alvernia.   Widener moves up to the 9th spot after a solid week but they will remain on the outside looking in and are AQ or bust.

I enjoy looking at this style of calculation but I don't see Hopkins getting bumped by F&M despite the H2H win. Hopkins resume with the 4 ranked wins vs F&M 1 ranked win (albeit against JHU) will keep the Bluejays comfortably in 2nd. Wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if F&M was 2nd as you are predicting but I'm not buying it.

Alvernia will remain ahead of Etown as their 2 ranked wins and win% bests Etown mediocre resume. I am most interested to see what happens in 4th thru 7th in region 5. I would think Catholic will hold onto the 4th spot but it's a toss up with Drew being done, yet still boasting a nice resume. Will Gettysburg or Alvernia jump the Rangers? 

Similarly in Region 4, I agree with MAF that Misericordia may slip a bit in the rankings as their SOS will be lower than last week and they lack ranked opponents. 4th thru 6th will be a toss-up there as well.

Yeah, this is a case where it would be nice if the manual actually did list the primary criteria in some sort of  priority order.  F&M has the winning %, H2H, and I think SOS advantage over JHU this week.  JHU has the superior RvR.  If nothing else,  the rankings this week will provide some more insight on how highly the committee values RvR

[TMUJ]

Where does a team like Washington College fall for an at-large bid after the Centennial had 5 teams in the tournament last year and this year they finished second in the conference ahead of JHU who has been ranked all season?

Although they don't have the best record outside of the conference they had success in the tournament last year and have had a lot of ties this season which hurt their win total.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Where does a team like Washington College fall for an at-large bid after the Centennial had 5 teams in the tournament last year and this year they finished second in the conference ahead of JHU who has been ranked all season?

Although they don't have the best record outside of the conference they had success in the tournament last year and have had a lot of ties this season which hurt their win total.

WC may have to win the conference and/or get to the final by beating JHU to qualify as it is not in the top 7 regionally.  However, if many of the top 7 automatically qualify because they win their tournaments, WC may have a chance.  IMO WC biggest issue is that they did not  win the important non-conference games that would have made a big difference.  So it may be tough, but they have a shot I believe especially if they end up beating JHU in the semis.

[Hopkins Walk-On]

Watching and reviewing this game - I have one concern for Messiah - 2 shots and 2 goals.  Both well taken, but both could have been covered. Late in the season means must win games, single elimination,  and further to an older post of mine - GK play has to ready for and up to  moments.

Two shots and two goals is pretty darn efficient. Over the course of the season, Messiah has 76 goals on 407 shots - they need only about 5.4 shots to score a goal. Hopkins has 20 goals on roughly 240 shots - they need 12 shots to score a goal.

[MessageBoardMessi]

Watching and reviewing this game - I have one concern for Messiah - 2 shots and 2 goals.  Both well taken, but both could have been covered. Late in the season means must win games, single elimination,  and further to an older post of mine - GK play has to ready for and up to  moments.

Two shots and two goals is pretty darn efficient. Over the course of the season, Messiah has 76 goals on 407 shots - they need only about 5.4 shots to score a goal. Hopkins has 20 goals on roughly 240 shots - they need 12 shots to score a goal.

I was referring to shots and goals scored on Messiah.  Widener had 2 SOG and two goals.  Both could have been covered better by the Messiah GK.....

[Hopkins Walk-On]

Sorry for the confusion. Still, Widener is closer to Messiah in terms of shot efficiency than to Hopkins. 227 shots and 33 goals or roughly 6.9 shots per goal. Would be interesting to see how other schools fare in this and other statistical categories. Looked up F&M for shiggles and the have 246 shots for 24 goals, so about 10 shots per goal.

[Hopkins92]

Must confess: My (kind of) random obsession with Widener this year had me wondering how/if he would fit in on a team like Hopkins. My gut says they're just not a suitable match, but it would be fun if we had D3 EA Sports and you could drop a guy like that's skills into a team like Hopkins.

And I'll reiterate my match write-up of the F&M game (I suspect it was too long for some to read), Hopkins showed a willingness to spray diagonal/deep passes in that game I haven't seen in quite some time. Even Fatiga only slotted in for 15 minutes a half, he would be lethal because Hop has really precision passers coming out of the back. 40-50 yard crosses from the backline right on a dime... Fatiga would kill you with that service.

/fanstasyworld

[Hopkins92]

Upset Watch!

Dickinson 1:0 over Hop deep into the first half. Nice through ball to their striker who made no mistake on the breakaway goal.

Well, scratch that. PK goes to Hop for a drag down in the box (legit) and Hop buries the PK.

1-1

[PaulNewman]

Hop92, I thought about responding to the post you've cited the other day when you posted it, but I was hesitant because I'm sure you know your team far better than I.  And then you gave Kenyon a nice compliment today, so I was even less inclined to comment!  But alas...

What was confusing from my pov is that it had seemed like you earlier in the season had stoutly defended JHU's pattern of winning 1-0 or by a goal with some confidence that the strategy could hold through a deep NCAA run...or at least that was how I read it.  Then, after a stretch of two draws and a loss you seemed almost ecstatic about the JHU offense and sort of laid down a marker about how dangerous they have become in attack.  I followed you argument and got what you were saying but I still wasn't totally sure where the extent of your confidence was coming from.

With that as a backdrop I was interested to watch some of this JHU-Dickinson game.  JHU is clearly superior, and yet, after two draws and a loss, they were down 1-0.  Then, FINALLY, with 14 or so minutes left the goal seemed to fuel some energy and urgency for JHU and suddenly they really were attacking and not waiting for Dickinson to get set.  The question I have about the usual way they approach possession is that it is so methodical it is sort of like a self-check...meaning the other team can get 9-10 guys behind the ball, stay organized and keep their shape, etc.  The speed you referenced didn't really become evident until Dickinson scored.  The good news for JHU from my pov is that they clearly have the ability and indeed had multiple very good chances after the Dickinson goal....so maybe they just need to figure out a way to play with a little more urgency and pace from the jump or at least earlier in the match. 

It's been done before....probably best and/or most recently by Middlebury when the Panthers won the title in 2008 or whenever it was...but imo it's extremely difficult to make a very deep run (Final 4) or win the title with a strategy of winning games 1-0.

[Hopkins92]

Dickinson pulls level at 2-2 with 8 minutes left. Their striker is having quite a nite with 2 in the bag.

=-=-=-=-==

PN - I respond after the game. :-)

[PaulNewman]

A very entertaining game....some fantastic individual plays and saves.

[Hopkins92]

What was confusing from my pov is that it had seemed like you earlier in the season had stoutly defended JHU's pattern of winning 1-0 or by a goal with some confidence that the strategy could hold through a deep NCAA run...or at least that was how I read it.  Then, after a stretch of two draws and a loss you seemed almost ecstatic about the JHU offense and sort of laid down a marker about how dangerous they have become in attack.  I followed you argument and got what you were saying but I still wasn't totally sure where the extent of your confidence was coming from.

I will just say... I don't think I was confident about this approach, at all. Just noting that the team/coach seemed pretty content with it. I was just going back through my (really) old posts looking for something else and I've been kind of annoying complaining about Hopkins' approach for many years.

What you may read as "ecstatic" is simply my relief and pleasure that in contrast to years past (most famously a 2-0 defeat at Messiah where they NEVER broke from their methodical approach), this iteration is absolutely fine smacking (intelligent) long, diagonal balls when the going gets rough*. They just never seemed to do that before.

* - They played with urgency on Saturday because they were down a goal for most of the game. I absolutely agree with you on their need to not wait until they are in a hole to smash the pedal down. They need to go watch Messiah, Kenyon and Chicago... Those guys are always putting the other team on blast. ALWAYS. When Hopkins skips the methodical possession stuff it completely throws the other team off. But, it's this weird lingering overly cerebral approach that catches them out time and again. Tonight is no exception. They go up a goal, take their foot off the gas, and now they're staring at OT and having to go to some pod in Ohio where it snows and they lose.

I like this team. They're fast and smart. But they are HORRIBLE in the air, and they just don't finish enough of their chances. I don't think you want to play them in the Big Dance, but I also think they're the kind of team to lose in the first round... If that makes sense.

[Hopkins92]

A very entertaining game....some fantastic individual plays and saves.

When the Hopkins keeper came off his line to head the ball out of bounds, I almost shed a tear. That's how you play that position!

(Though it scared the living you know what out of my (future) wife and my parents when I pulled that stuff. :-)

[PaulNewman]

Yep, all of that made perfect sense.

Loved your line about ending up somewhere in Ohio.  And based on my track record JHU will beat Kenyon....1-0.