Mid-Atlantic Region

[SierraFD3soccer]

Trap Game tonight?? F&M v. Lancaster Bible at 7. Last year, hard fought 0-0 tie. LBC just tied LVC after being a caught by LVC in the last couple of minutes.

Half. F&M is dominating though only ahead 2-0. LBC hasn't had any luck. F&M could have 4 goals or more. Oscar Horowitz scored his 13th and 14th goal this season (school record is 17).

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Some midweek games of interest around the region:

Drew at Moravian
Catholic at Etown
Leb Val at Alvernia
LBC at Messiah
Gettysburg at Mary Wash
Salisbury at Hopkins
Rowan at RUC
RUN at Montclair

[D3 Dad]

Anyone know why Last night's F&M vs LBC game is not included in Massey ratings?

[SierraFD3soccer]

Anyone know why Last night's F&M vs LBC game is not included in Massey ratings?

Happened last year that the game was overlooked.  I contacted Massey and asked him to include.  May take a few days.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Results added below!

Some midweek games of interest around the region:

Drew at Moravian (3-0)
Catholic at Etown (2-1)
Leb Val at Alvernia (0-0)
LBC at Messiah
Gettysburg at Mary Wash (1-4)
Salisbury at Hopkins
Rowan at RUC
RUN at Montclair

[Hopkins92]

Hop up 1-0 on a really nice cross to the far post against Salisbury. Fairly lopsided affair, but the Gulls had a really good chance off of a (bad) give-away by JHU in the middle of the park during the beginning of their build out.

Mentioned it before... That's their issue to fix right now. No other real chances of note, so...

[SierraFD3soccer]

Hop up 1-0 on a really nice cross to the far post against Salisbury. Fairly lopsided affair, but the Gulls had a really good chance off of a (bad) give-away by JHU in the middle of the park during the beginning of their build out.

Mentioned it before... That's their issue to fix right now. No other real chances of note, so...

Yeah, JHU definitely dominate, been watching out the corner of my eye.  A lot of good chances.

[Hopkins92]

2-0 final at Homewood. Hop get a PK call towards the 20 minute left to go mark. Silly foul, but the dude that drew the foul will do that to you...

On to the weekend tilt..

[Another Mom]

W&L 5 - 1 Guilford. Guilford's goal was an own goal.

[jknezek]

Well, W&L has 2 more games before the whole season hits the line. What should be an easy upcoming pair of Randolph (Saturday) and Bridgewater (Wednesday), both on the road, are followed by CNU (10/21) and Lynchburg (10/25) at home. Then it's ODAC tournament time.

A couple weeks ago I said W&L would have to win the ODAC to make the NCAAs, I suspect now a clean run to the ODAC Finals should be enough for an at-large. Wins in the next 3 I think are required. W&L has no "signature" win this season, CNU is really the best opportunity. They also don't really have a bad loss. Both Ogelthorpe and Roanoke are having solid seasons. But they can't afford a bad loss, and they need that signature win. Lynchburg doesn't provide the pop CNU will, so of the two, a win against CNU is probably more important. A win and a tie against the pair probably would be ok.

We will see if the run of wins against weaker opponents has put W&L back on track in about a week's time.

[Another Mom]

My thoughts exactly! They are looking really good, and playing really well now, but it has been against weak teams. Lynchburg and CNU will really let us see where they are. There has been a lot of moving players around, and as one of the coaches said recently,  it's a happy team now.

[PaulNewman]

It may be helpful to project ranked wins vs signature.  And both CNU and Lynchburg are almost locks to end up regionally ranked leading up to selection day.  W&L's loss to Roanoke won't hurt much at all and Oglethorpe may or may not end up ranked but let's assume they do.  VWU may have an outside shot which would give W&L a ranked win but I wouldn't count on that one.  The draw with Emory should count and possibly Otterbein and/or Stockton will be ranked in terms of other ties.

W&L's winning pct and SoS should be in good enough range so Pool C likely would come down to ranked wins.  CNU and Lynchburg are the opportunities and I suppose they could get another one if they face Lynchburg in the ODAC semis. 

Of course W&L is probably at least a co-favorite to win ODAC tourney which would render all of the above irrelevant except for possibly hosting decisions.

Bottom line...I expect W&L to be in the NCAA field unless they go 0-2 or 0-3 or 0-2-1 in the two to three matches with CNU and Lynchburg.

[jknezek]

It may be helpful to project ranked wins vs signature.  And both CNU and Lynchburg are almost locks to end up regionally ranked leading up to selection day.  W&L's loss to Roanoke won't hurt much at all and Oglethorpe may or may not end up ranked but let's assume they do.  VWU may have an outside shot which would give W&L a ranked win but I wouldn't count on that one.  The draw with Emory should count and possibly Otterbein and/or Stockton will be ranked in terms of other ties.

W&L's winning pct and SoS should be in good enough range so Pool C likely would come down to ranked wins.  CNU and Lynchburg are the opportunities and I suppose they could get another one if they face Lynchburg in the ODAC semis. 

Of course W&L is probably at least a co-favorite to win ODAC tourney which would render all of the above irrelevant except for possibly hosting decisions.

Bottom line...I expect W&L to be in the NCAA field unless they go 0-2 or 0-3 or 0-2-1 in the two to three matches with CNU and Lynchburg.

This is definitely the more bottom line, quant analysis that I tend to favor. I was just being too lazy to go look up the ranked teams. I know W&L snuck back in this week toward the bottom but I haven't followed as closely this year and didn't feel like starting now. So I went with lazy shorthand of signature win knowing that it means nothing to the NCAA vs things like a regionally ranked win vs the last regionally ranked team...

[PaulNewman]

And as you know @jknezek, the regional rankings that matter haven't even started yet...and the only ones that "count" are the 3rd and 4th weeks in November.

[SierraFD3soccer]

W&L is definitely in a good spot with their fate in their hands.

Because of W&L's recent hard work by playing top programs successfully, W&L has raised ODAC's stature in that it does not only have one team (tournament champ) go to the NCAAs. Without doing a deep, deep dive, I am guessing that ODAC had only one team go to the NCAAs for many years. Credit where credit is due.