Mid-Atlantic Region

[SierraFD3soccer]

Watching a little NFL and Middlebury v. Conn while looking around W&L's soccer history. Who says we can't multitask.

Look at one of Rolf Piranian's last seasons 2014 and noticed a familiar name, Ross Liberati, asst coach.  He was an asst. coach for Rolf and Mike Singleton. Now the coach for Widener for the last 5 years!

[Hopkins92]

Nice pull!

I'm a big fan of looking at historically "meh" or underperforming teams and seeing that delta where "something" happened to turn around a program. I did a similar dive on Widener last year, but without this interesting "coaching tree" context.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Nice pull!

I'm a big fan of looking at historically "meh" or underperforming teams and seeing that delta where "something" happened to turn around a program. I did a similar dive on Widener last year, but without this interesting "coaching tree" context.

Thanks.  Back in mid 80's, Rolf and his wife had a son. Couple of times he had us over and I seem to remember him running around. He couldn't have more than 5. Now he's the coach at Wilkes. Even more personal, hahaha

https://gowilkesu.com/staff-directory/michael-piranian/245

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Posting two different sets of rankings. The first are my normal "power" rankings and the second are my predictions for the first regional rankings that come out on Wednesday from the NCAA.

MAF Power Rankings (10/16)

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Leb Val
3. Kean
4. Stevens
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. RUC

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. JHU
4. Wash College
T5. Muhles
T5. Lycoming
7. Widener



MAF 1st RR Predictions

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Kean
3. LVC
4. Stockton
5. Stevens
6. Rowan
7. RUC

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Wash College
4. Hopkins
5. Lycoming
6. Muhles
7. Scranton



A couple things to note for the NCAA RR predictions:

-Region 4 is a toss up. Montclair should be the unanimous #1 with both record, SOS, etc. Once RvR is factored into the 2nd rankings I believe that will solidify them at #1 for the remainder of year-assuming they go at least 1-1-1 in their last 3 matches.

-Kean I think will get the edge over LVC for the pure fact of being unbeaten. I also think they will edge out LVC with SOS, so those two things combined will give them the nod for 2nd.

-Stockton looks better on paper than Stevens right now. I give the slight edge to them, which slots Stevens at 5 for the time being.

-Slots 6 and 7 are up for grabs. Take your pick but I think Rowan is safely in at 6th. That 7th slot is anybody's best guess. It could be any of RUC, PSU-Abington, FDU, or PSU-Harrisburg. Others that could find themselves in the 7th slot by the end of the year are NYU and RUN. Both are a smidge under .500 right now but will have strong SOS when all said and done (which the CMTE tends to favor).

-Region 5 is more standard but still some room for ambiguity amongst the CMTE. 1 and 2 are no brainers with Messiah and F&M securing those.

-Slots 3 thru 6 could go a few different ways. I think WC will edge out JHU in the first rankings for the same reason Kean edges out LVC in region 4-still unbeaten. The CMTE will let these 2 decide over the next week and a half when they face each other and potentially in conference playoffs.

-Slots 5 and 6 are also up for debate. Lycoming has gained some traction after their back to back losses at JHU and MW earlier in the year. My best guess is they will have a similar SOS than the Muhles. It's a slim margin and I am going off the data plus the eyeball test. I think Lycoming is better right now but I would not be surprised one bit if they were reversed. Both of these teams are comfortably in the top 6 in some capacity.

-And slot 7...another toss up and will more than likely be the case for the remainder of the year. There are a handful of teams that could sneak into this spot. Widener, Scranton, Dickinson, Drew, and Catholic all come to mind. Alvernia and Etown both have an uphill battle to jump these other teams where they currently stand. Widener has the record but have dropped both "challenges" they have faced. I fear that the Pride's SOS will be too low to hold onto a regional ranking spot. They may jump Scranton in the 1st rankings, but I don't see them holding on once RvR comes into play. I give the nod to Scranton with also 2 losses but a stronger SOS and more signature results (ie: W over Muhles and T w/Kean & Catholic).

Only time will tell if the CMTE agrees! 

[SierraFD3soccer]

Thanks MAF for the great analysis!

MAF 1st RR Predictions

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Kean
3. LVC
4. Stockton
5. Stevens
6. Rowan
7. RUC

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Wash College
4. Hopkins
5. Lycoming
6. Muhles
7. Scranton

Definitely agree as to Region 4 as to Kean at 2 and LVC at 3.  One way that it can be looked at and even though not regional games, but Kean beat F&M 1-0 and LVC lost to F&M. May not mean much as to the people ranking Region 4.

As to Region 5, this could clearly be what happens in the first week and maybe next week as well.  With the Cent. Conf. getting down to critical games, Wash College plays JHU (currently 4th on points) this Wednesday, Muhls (3rd) on Sat. and then F&M (2nd) the following Saturday. So all can rise or fall by next week's regional rankings or even the following week's.  Also Muhls other loss besides to F&M is to Scranton which was their first game of the season.  Muhls also tied JHU.   

As to Widener (losses to Stockton and Messiah), if they can win out and Wash Coll get swept or lose two out of three then Widener could be back in the run regionally.

Lots, lots of great games coming in both regions! 

[Shooter McGavin]

Here are my thoughts for the upcoming regional rankings:

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. LVC
3. Kean
4. Stevens
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. PSU-Abington

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. JHU
4. Wash College
5. Muhles
6. Lycoming
7. Scranton or Widener (flip a coin)

[paclassic89]

Region IV -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 1

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Rank	School	RPI	D3 SOS	Prev Rank
1	Montclair State	.6229	.5621	-
2	LVC	.6186	.5427	-
3	Stockton	.6161	.5881	-
4	Stevens	.6026	.5812	-
5	Kean	.5951	.5197	-
6	Rowan	.5741	.5732	-
7	Rutgers-Camden	.5518	.5247	-
8	PSU-Harrisburg	.5477	.5525	-
9	FDU-Florham	.5415	.4859	-

Region V -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 1

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Rank	School	RPI	D3 SOS	Prev Rank
1	Messiah	.6955	.6059	-
2	F&M	.6792	.6199	-
3	Muhlenberg	.6205	.5634	-
4	Widener	.6166	.5401	-
5	Johns Hopkins	.6162	.5954	-
6	Washington College	.6143	.5453	-
7	Catholic	.5885	.5942	-
8	Lycoming	.5817	.5534	-
9	Alvernia	.5793	.5800	-

Couple of notes:  These are just my RPI ratings.  I'll leave the actual ranking predictions to others but this is usually pretty close, especially for the first rankings without RvR.  There are some spots where the RPI numbers are close but there is a large discrepancy in SoS which is usually where the regional rankings may deviate.   I also don't directly track SoS as a metric (it's built into my formulas) but these are quick approximations.  They should be close but I tend to get slightly lower SoS numbers compared to NCAA for some reason.  I've checked a couple of them with someone who has access to the data sheet  and they're close enough.  Also, I included 9 teams instead of 7 to show a couple of teams that may be on the bubble

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Some games to watch this week...

-F&M @ Dickinson
-Hopkins @ WC
-Fords @ Hopkins
-Gettysburg @ F&M
-WC @ Muhles
-Alvernia @ Messiah
-LBC @ PSU Harrisburg
-PSU Abington @ PSU Harrisburg
-Stockton @ RUC
-Montclair @ RUC
-Drew @ Scranton
-Drew @ Lycoming

[Hopkins92]

A slightly lazy question, but I don't feel like going back and doing the research...

Any sense of how high in the regional rankings you need to be to feel "safe" for getting an at-large bid?

[College Soccer Observer]

Depends on several factors.  What region are you in?  Do the teams ranked in front of you need the Pool C bid because someone stole the automatic bid in the conference tournament.  Look at the strength of schedule.  In PA Classic's RPI data, take Middlebury as an example.  They are 4th in Region I with a .6439, but that would put them first in Region 2, Region 4, and Region 8. 

[paclassic89]

Like CSO said, there are a lot of factors.  It's tough to say by regional ranking spot because there are substantial differences in strength between regions.  I checked my data from last season and the lowest ranked at large team by RPI was 40th.  There were a lot of conference tourney upsets last season so I think in a normal season a team would probably want to be at least top 50 RPI to feel like they have a realistic chance.  Top 35 might be the safe zone.  Barring a collapse where they drop points against both Haverford and Dickinson and then get bounced in the Centennial playoffs early, I think Hopkins is in a pretty good place to receive an at large if they don't win the Centennial.

[SierraFD3soccer]

As to Hop, I think winning tomorrow night against WC would be huge.  The last two games should not be an issue.

[Hopkins92]

Yeah, agreed, feel like the game against the best logo in the league is pretty huge.

[Another Mom]

The score in the W&L Bridgewater game was 9-0, W&L.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Very, very nice W&L!!  As to CNU loss, that could be an issue as to when W&L beats CNU this weekend. In my opinion, it will be definitely mean something, but maybe not as much as it could possibly be if CNU hadn't lost. Also CNU could be more motivated now. May be small, but W&L seemed to not do as well at Newport News, but better at home which it will be. Only can control what they can control.

F&M just beat Dickinson 2-0 on their tough grass field (F&M clearly plays better on turf).  One goal early then the second in last 6 min. or so. Wasn't a walk over or dominant performance by F&M. Dickinson definitely had their chances and F&M's defense played much better this game by keeping it clean most of the game.

Hop v. WC - Hop up 1-0 on a very nice goal in the first 15 min or so. WC had a great chance but no luck. I would give Hop the advantage as to play, but WC is playing tough. 15 min left in 1st half. 

Muhls 0-0 against Swarthmore end of first half.