Mid-Atlantic Region

[Freddyfud]

I would say it can be helpful but one can't overlook chemistry.   Beginning of season, Mary Washington (without any grad transfers...at least listed) handled JHU and what stood out was Mary Washington's chemistry...they looked like they never dropped a beat from last year's Final 4 team.   And remember JHU had its own success making the Elite 8.   Now that we are deep into the season, JHU chemistry does seem to be there once again.

Yes, definitely an advantage, but we will see obviously in the next few weeks. Having opportunities for students to go to a great university while as graduate students may only be short term.  Question will be if there will be a hangover experience/recruitment wise in the next couple of years once this ends.

FYI JHU womens won the nat'l championship last year with 9 grad students and are doing well this year with 6 grad students.

When I read the bios of the 6 grad students on the JHU women's team, it seems a bit of a joke.  Most of them have either legitimate D1 experience for middling to good (e.g. Wake Forest) teams, or many games of starting experience with leading D3 programs (e.g; Pomona, Hamilton, etc.).  This doesn't strike me as particularly fair...but I'm probably old fashioned...

Fair or not I think the counter to this is they only got 3 years at those programs.  Either way to your point there are still impacts today.  And not sure about the women's side but certainly for the men there is a compounding effect of growth in international student athletes within D1.  For these reasons I'd expect the overall standards for D3 soccer have risen with these tides and will continue to do so in the future.  As mentioned in sporadic other posts, these are not your parent's Hopkins teams.  (No offense to the respected Hopkins alum on these boards of course.)   I'm hopeful this means someday there will be many more fans paying attention to D3 soccer.  If so let's just hope the platform is an internationally recognized content provider as opposed to a conference-based paywall?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

A lot of intriguing results over the last week which made this a struggle for both personal rankings and regional predictions. My power rankings and best guesses below!

MAF Power Rankings (10/23)

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Leb Val
3. Kean
4. Stevens
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. PSU-Harrisburg

-Swapping out Camden for PSU-Harrisburg as they have been on a skid over the last 2.5 weeks. 0-4-2 in their last 6 isn't good enough for me
-Stockton and Rowan face off in the season finale. Right now I have Stockton with the edge but Massey has Rowan by the slightest of margins. Winner gets 5th in my next rankings 
-LVC at Stevens this weekend will be a fun one to watch and tell us more about both teams. I expect a rematch in a few weeks for the conference final 

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. JHU
4. Wash College
5. Lycoming
6. Scranton
7. Muhles

RV: Widener & Catholic

-Messiah & F&M with a stronghold on the top 2 spots
-JHU and WC battled it out and JHU came out on top. They get the nod at 3 ahead of WC but I wouldn't be surprised to see these 2 switched in the RR
-Lycoming continues to impress me. They get the nod over Scranton and Muhles this week
-Take your pick at #6 and #7 but I am going Scranton with the H2H win over Muhles
-Slotting the Muhles at 7th but easily could be out. 1-2-1 in their last 4 and trending in the wrong direction
-Widener and Catholic on the outside looking in but both could trump the Muhles or Royals over the next few weeks


MAF 2nd RR Predictions

Region 4
1. Montclair--They are the cream of the crop in this region. No one is close and they will be #1 for the next 3 rankings. Looking at a 3-1-0 RvR and solid SOS
2. Kean--Still unbeaten but the SOS is very low. Will they balance each other out? RvR is 2-0-1 or 2-0-2 w/Montclair left
3. LVC--They keep plugging away. A win vs Stevens would brighten their at-large chances. Somewhat low SOS and 1-1-0 RvR
4. Stevens--1-2-1 or 1-1-1 RvR with a strong SOS. They might inch higher than this as spots 2 through 5 are tight
5. Stockton--Close behind but still what I'd consider the next tier in this region. 1-2-3 RvR or 0-2-3 RvR. SOS is only thing saving them
6. Rowan--0-3-2 RvR with one chance left. At-large bid looks slim unless they beat Stockton. SOS is strong per usual for the Profs
7. PSU-Harrisburg--0-3-0 or 0-3-1 RvR but a strong SOS will keep them ahead of others and in the final slot

Region 5
1. Messiah--easy #1 w/either a 6-0-0 or 5-0-0 RvR and strong SOS
2. F&M--easy #2 w/5-1-0 RvR and strong SOS
3. Wash College--I have WC ahead in my power rankings but think they stay ahead of JHU here. Most likely a 2-1-1 RvR this week and solid SOS
4. Hopkins--H2H over WC but looking at 1-2-2 RvR maybe 2-2-2 RvR at best and a high SOS. The H2H might be enough for them to jump WC, especially if they get 2 ranked wins
5. Scranton--A lower SOS but potential for 2-0-2 or 2-1-2 RvR. Can't overlook the RvR and H2H results compared to others in the region including H2H over Muhles
6. Muhles--No ranked wins will haunt the Muhles. RvR of 0-2-1 or 0-3-1 will see them slip further down the region. A good SOS keeps them in this week but not by much. Look for them to drop out completely if they can't pick up a ranked win in the next week and a half.
7. Lycoming--One of the hottest teams in the region at 9-1-2 since their back to back losses against JHU and MW. Looking at 0-3-2 or 1-3-3 potential for RvR and a good SOS. Could still be on the outside looking in. Would not be surprised to see Widener or Catholic or both in over Scranton, Muhles or Lyco.

Others:
Widener--A sloppy tie with Stevenson and lower SOS will hurt the Pride's chances of cracking the rankings. 1-2-0 RvR won't be enough to offset the SOS and other's resumes. They could still be in at #7 with the ranked win helping their cause. I don't think they are the same caliber as the others predicted ahead of them. 
Catholic--A high SOS but a hefty amount of losses for the Cardinals, including a projected 0-3-0 RvR. Potential for 0-3-1 or 0-3-2 if Lyco/Scranton get ranked ahead of them. I see them slipping out this week with the RvR factored in although they could stay ahead of Scranton/Lyco. 1 more chance for a ranked win vs MW this week.

Slots 5-7 are going to be battled out by the last 5 teams on the board. All depends what the CMTE values. We know SOS is a big factor, but can be offset by RvR, H2H, common opponents, and win% as we dive into the 2nd release of the regional rankings.

[SKUD]

Good stuff MAF how many of these teams & who, do you see playing in the NCAA tournament?

[Ejay]

Scranton has a monster game Saturday vs Moravian. Winner makes the paywall conference tournament while the loser is most likey out. Catholic already has the#2 seed locked up but still has an outside shot at the #1 with a win vs Juniata combined with a Lycoming loss to Elizabethtown.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Good stuff MAF how many of these teams & who, do you see playing in the NCAA tournament?

Thanks SKUD! Right now it's too hard to tell. A lot will depend on the next 2 weeks and how conference playoffs go. Which teams will earn the AQ and which teams will fight for seeding in the regional rankings. I will try and break it down with Locks, Good Shape, Bubble, and Most Likely Out.

Locks:
Messiah, F&M and Montclair--regardless if they get the AQ or an at-large these 3 are practically locks to go dancing one way or another. Montclair might not feel this way just yet after what happened to them last season, but I think they are more comfortable this year with a better SOS, RvR and overall resume in a weak region. They should be first off the board in Region 4. Messiah and F&M will be the first 2 off the board in Region 5.

Good Shape
Hopkins, Wash College, Stevens, LVC--all of these teams have a good shot at winning the AQ and if they don't, it more than likely means one of the teams ahead of them or next to them have gotten it. The loser of Stevens vs LVC will have a chance to come off the board early for an at-large but it will depend how their resume stacks up against the other regions. Region 5 seems stronger this year than region 4 so I would guess you'll see more teams come from this region for at-large bids than the other. Just depends on how the AQs break down.

Bubble
Kean, Stockton, Rowan, Lycoming, Catholic, Scranton, Muhles--all of these teams have a chance to be regionally ranked and also win their AQ. If they don't win the AQ will they be ranked high enough to come off the board? These are the definition of pure bubble teams.

Most Likely Out
Widener, Alvernia, Dickinson, PSU-Harrisburg--these teams pretty much need the AQ to get into the dance. A couple may stay in the regional rankings but they won't have a chance at an at-large bid to the tournament.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Scranton has a monster game Saturday vs Moravian. Winner makes the paywall conference tournament while the loser is most likey out. Catholic already has the#2 seed locked up but still has an outside shot at the #1 with a win vs Juniata combined with a Lycoming loss to Elizabethtown.

Big weekend ahead in the Landmark. From what I can tell only a few teams are locked in.

Lycoming and Catholic are battling for the 1 seed but both have secured 1st round byes and home field advantage for the semifinals. A Catholic win and Lycoming loss/tie gives Catholic the 1 seed. A Catholic loss/tie gives Lycoming the 1 seed. A Lycoming win gives Lycoming the 1 seed. 

Etown has secured the #3 seed and this won't change regardless of weekend results. Drew has clinched a playoff berth but could be seeded either #4 or #5. They will most likely be #4.

Scranton, Moravian and Goucher are all fighting for the last 2 spots. Scranton and Moravian face-off while Goucher travels to Wilkes.

All of the midweek games are non-conference so this won't be set until Saturday afternoon 

[Shooter McGavin]

Got 11 or 12 of the 14 for the 1st rankings (never flipped the coin  )

Here are my 2nd regional rankings:

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. LVC
3. Stevens
4. Kean
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. PSU-Harrisburg

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Wash College
4. Hopkins
5. Widener
6. Scranton
7. Catholic

Lycoming or Muhles could also be ranked.

Here are my thoughts for the upcoming regional rankings:

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. LVC
3. Kean
4. Stevens
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. PSU-Abington

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. JHU
4. Wash College
5. Muhles
6. Lycoming
7. Scranton or Widener (flip a coin)

[paclassic89]

Region IV -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 2

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Rank	School	RPI	D3 SOS	Prev Rank
1	Montclair State	.6294	.5548	1
2	Stockton	.614	.5735	3
3	LVC	.6091	.5344	2
4	Stevens	.5989	.5604	4
5	Kean	.5926	.5193	5
6	Rowan	.5707	.5498	6
7	Penn State-Harrisburg	.5617	.5627	8
8	Rutgers-Camden	.5505	.5478	7
9	FDU-Florham	.5318	.4829	9

Region V -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 2

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Rank	School	RPI	D3 SOS	Prev Rank
1	Messiah	.6807	.5847	1
2	F&M	.6733	.6061	2
3	Johns Hopkins	.6221	.6003	5
4	Washington College	.6113	.5546	6
5	Widener	.6082	.5331	4
6	Muhlenberg	.6003	.5623	3
7	Catholic	.5957	.5859	7
8	Lycoming	.594	.5566	8
9	Alvernia	.5912	.5995	9

Estimated SoS numbers.  MAF did a great job of going over the RvR which I don't track. From this ranking on, the purely RPI based predictions are slightly less accurate.  Top 7 for Region IV seems pretty set to me.  Montclair clear #1.  2-7 could still shift a lot as we go through the final games of the regular season and conference playoffs.  Region V top 2 (Messiah and F&M) are set.  JHU and Washington College are looking good.  I think Muhlenberg might be in trouble if they don't make a deep playoff run. They play Cabrini and McDaniel to end the regular season which will hurt their SoS (if they manage to tie or lose one of those games then they are really in trouble).   Widener potentially dropping out this week (despite still having a decent RPI) with Lycoming or Alvernia slotting in one of the last spots.  Lots of talk about Scranton but RPI has them at 11 in region V.  Low SoS right now but good RvR so who knows how the cmte will view them

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Love this breakdown. Thanks for pulling it together! +K

Region IV -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 2

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Rank	School	RPI	D3 SOS	Prev Rank
1	Montclair State	.6294	.5548	1
2	Stockton	.614	.5735	3
3	LVC	.6091	.5344	2
4	Stevens	.5989	.5604	4
5	Kean	.5926	.5193	5
6	Rowan	.5707	.5498	6
7	Penn State-Harrisburg	.5617	.5627	8
8	Rutgers-Camden	.5505	.5478	7
9	FDU-Florham	.5318	.4829	9

Region V -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 2

 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Rank	School	RPI	D3 SOS	Prev Rank
1	Messiah	.6807	.5847	1
2	F&M	.6733	.6061	2
3	Johns Hopkins	.6221	.6003	5
4	Washington College	.6113	.5546	6
5	Widener	.6082	.5331	4
6	Muhlenberg	.6003	.5623	3
7	Catholic	.5957	.5859	7
8	Lycoming	.594	.5566	8
9	Alvernia	.5912	.5995	9

Estimated SoS numbers.  MAF did a great job of going over the RvR which I don't track. From this ranking on, the purely RPI based predictions are slightly less accurate.  Top 7 for Region IV seems pretty set to me.  Montclair clear #1.  2-7 could still shift a lot as we go through the final games of the regular season and conference playoffs.  Region V top 2 (Messiah and F&M) are set.  JHU and Washington College are looking good.  I think Muhlenberg might be in trouble if they don't make a deep playoff run. They play Cabrini and McDaniel to end the regular season which will hurt their SoS (if they manage to tie or lose one of those games then they are really in trouble).   Widener potentially dropping out this week (despite still having a decent RPI) with Lycoming or Alvernia slotting in one of the last spots.  Lots of talk about Scranton but RPI has them at 11 in region V.  Low SoS right now but good RvR so who knows how the cmte will view them

[Kuiper]

Muhlenberg beats 1-0 on Cabrini in a close game. 

I think it's time to give credit to Cabrini and its coaching staff and players for the way they have fought in what is the last season of their existence (and maybe the second-to-last game of their existence tonight).  The team is currently 6-7-3 overall, but 3-2-1 in the Atlantic East Conference and in second place.  The coaches appear to have done a great job rallying the team to play for each other down the stretch.  I don't know that they have the guns to beat Neumann (they lost to them 2 weeks ago 3-2), but what a thrill if they were able to win the conference tournament and qualify for the NCAA tournament one last time before everyone scatters in the wind to new colleges.  I'm here for the underdogs.  It would be a great story and a great way to go out with a bang.

[Christan Shirk]

REGION IV - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2023

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Montclair State	14-2-1	0.554	3-1-0	14-2-1	Y
2.	Stockton	10-2-5	0.574	1-2-3	10-2-5	Y
3.	Stevens	8-2-4	0.561	1-2-1	8-2-4	Y
4.	Lebanon Valley	11-1-3	0.539	1-1-0	11-1-3	Y
5.	Kean	10-0-6	0.525	2-0-1	10-0-6	Y
6.	Rowan	7-3-5	0.557	0-3-2	7-3-5	Y
7.	Penn State-Harrisburg	6-4-7	0.573	0-3-0	6-4-7	Y

REGION V - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2023

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	15-0-1	0.584	5-0-0	15-0-1	Y
2.	Franklin and Marshall	13-1-2	0.607	5-1-0	13-1-2	Y
3.	Johns Hopkins	9-3-4	0.603	1-2-2	9-3-4	Y
4.	Washington College	10-1-5	0.556	2-1-1	10-1-5	Y
5.	Muhlenberg	9-3-2	0.563	0-2-1	9-3-2	Y
6.	Widener	12-2-1	0.533	1-2-0	12-2-1	Y
7.	Lycoming	10-3-4	0.554	0-3-2	10-3-4	--

[SierraFD3soccer]

W&L playing Lynchburg. Very nice goal for W&L 1-0 in the first 5 min.  Could be a very important game for each besides who wins the ODAC.

[SierraFD3soccer]

W&L playing Lynchburg. Very nice goal for W&L 1-0 in the first 5 min.  Could be a very important game for each besides who wins the ODAC.

Good game, but commentators talk way, way, way too much.

[FBALLISLIFE]

W&L playing Lynchburg. Very nice goal for W&L 1-0 in the first 5 min.  Could be a very important game for each besides who wins the ODAC.

Beautiful assist from Another Mom's son.  Go Gennies.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Also Montclair v. Kean. 1-0 MSU just scored. Important game for Kean based on their regional rankings. Could be first loss by Kean. But a lot, lot of game still. FYI it was not Amer Lukovic.

W&L game - W&L smacked cross and the post. Lynchburg the cross bar as well. Pretty wide open game so far with W&L probably ahead as to possession and more dangerous.