Mid-Atlantic Region

[d3tactico]

Updated Centennial Conference Playoff Predictions:

6th) Swarthmore

Since my last prediction, Swat crumbled against two tough opponents in WAC and JHU. While I will make no comment on their style of play as I do believe they offer a good brand of soccer, it is hard to ignore the results. Inevitably, a couple of weeks ago I had said that Swat fails to rise up to the occasion against big name conference opponents and as we have seen they failed once again. Fortunately, I believe the lower half of the Centennial will not produce any more notable results with the only exception being Gburg offering a potential sneak in into the playoffs. Swat is a solid 6th place team and I don't see them moving up or down more than one position.

5th) WAC

WAC has been on a great run of form in the past four games, but their upcoming conference games will prove to be the true test of their strength. GBurg (H), JHU (A), Muhlenburg (H), and F&M (A) are all very tough matchups and that is the main reason behind giving them such a low rank. However, I do feel as if their form will help them and offer them the chance to upset a higher ranked team. The most crucial and important time of their season is right now.

4th) Dickinson

Unfortunately, still not able to buy the Dickinson hype. You can throw Massey, NPI, and any other metric at me, but I will stand to make the prediction that they take losses against F&M (A) and JHU (A). 6 points in their final four conference games is how I view their conference campaign ending thus putting them at a fourth position.

3rd) Muhlenburg

The past couple results have been fairly disappointing for Muhlenburg as they have not shown the same offensive prestige compared to years past. They lost two pivotal players in Chris Richards and Taylan Akdag that has almost certainly impacted their squad. However, unlike their Centennial competitors, they have a fairly simple road ahead. Ursinus (H), Swat (A), WAC (A), and Mcdaniel (H) is a far easier schedule compared to a WAC or Dickinson. I can see them getting 7-9 points out the next four games and see them as a surprising 3rd place pick.

2nd) JHU

Unfortunately, I have JHU dropping for two main reasons. Their tie against Salisbury, who notably has lost to both Dickinson and WAC, and defeat to Gburg has been a gut punch to their midseason form. Beyond that, I believe F&M who is ahead of them is salivating at the opportunity to put them in the rear view mirror following their next game. I see JHU placing second after their final four games, BUT if they beat F&M then I can see them mounting pressure on the dips to maintain their top spot.

1st) F&M

The dips have come to play and their Centennial record thus far has been impressive. Their lopsided schedule has allowed them to gain momentum and establish a good run of form heading into their most important part of their season. Their most recent result against Muhlenburg was most impressive as they scored four in the first half and established a style of play. The dips play a brand of fluid counter-attacking soccer that relies on the individual brilliance of Koa Kaliebe, hold up play of striker Nathan Schlessinger, and most importantly a resilient defense. A couple of weeks ago I named them as an "at best 3rd place team", but it is hard to ignore their results. Their next games against JHU (A), Dickinson (H), GBurg (A), and WAC (H) can act as the ribbon to place atop of their season or the catalyst for their dismantling. Bear in mind they are still notably missing their All-American striker in Oscar Horowitz.

[Ejay]

Updated Centennial Conference Playoff Predictions:

4th) Dickinson
Unfortunately, still not able to buy the Dickinson hype. You can throw Massey, NPI, and any other metric at me, but I will stand to make the prediction that they take losses against F&M (A) and JHU (A). 6 points in their final four conference games is how I view their conference campaign ending thus putting them at a fourth position.

You're not alone...

https://youtu.be/mcGmvMJioTI?t=2260

[SierraFD3soccer]

1st) F&M

The dips have come to play and their Centennial record thus far has been impressive. Their lopsided schedule has allowed them to gain momentum and establish a good run of form heading into their most important part of their season. Their most recent result against Muhlenburg was most impressive as they scored four in the first half and established a style of play. The dips play a brand of fluid counter-attacking soccer that relies on the individual brilliance of Koa Kaliebe, hold up play of striker Nathan Schlessinger, and most importantly a resilient defense. A couple of weeks ago I named them as an "at best 3rd place team", but it is hard to ignore their results. Their next games against JHU (A), Dickinson (H), GBurg (A), and WAC (H) can act as the ribbon to place atop of their season or the catalyst for their dismantling. Bear in mind they are still notably missing their All-American striker in Oscar Horowitz.

Can with agree everything. Pretty sure all coaches have some twist to limit Kaliebe's impact which has been very difficult. While he has 6 goals and 2 assists, he does so much more. One person that may not be on your radar is Adam Green. I think he might lead all teams in sitters. So many opportunities. He has been so dangerous (2 goals with 18 SOGs and 38 shots). He just wants to make things difficult seems like. If he gets even more going, then he'll add a whole lot.

One other thing is that F&M has a very tall team. They have 14 players over 6-2 with, including the keeper, 7 regular starters. Two centerbacks are 6-2 super senior who has played since day one and 6-6 freshman who missed a few due to injury but is back. Both are very good at their positions. That is D1 heights.

As to Dickinson and its soft schedule, I agree. They haven't shown us much at all. However and not just to be a contrarian, WC also had some very soft schedules most years.  2021 they won the Cent. Conf. and lost in the 3rd round in the NCAAs to Tufts, 2-1. Last year, they won the Cent. reg. season, lost in the semis to JHU and made it to the final 4 where they lost to St. Olaf. IMO, Dickinson will definitely have to show that they are real, but, with an ex. like WC, they can be very competitive in the end.   

Will definitely depend on who gets hot late with three teams tied in 2nd with 10 points.

[justakidfromakron]

Updated Centennial Conference Playoff Predictions:

1st) F&M

The dips have come to play and their Centennial record thus far has been impressive. Their lopsided schedule has allowed them to gain momentum and establish a good run of form heading into their most important part of their season. Their most recent result against Muhlenburg was most impressive as they scored four in the first half and established a style of play. The dips play a brand of fluid counter-attacking soccer that relies on the individual brilliance of Koa Kaliebe, hold up play of striker Nathan Schlessinger, and most importantly a resilient defense. A couple of weeks ago I named them as an "at best 3rd place team", but it is hard to ignore their results. Their next games against JHU (A), Dickinson (H), GBurg (A), and WAC (H) can act as the ribbon to place atop of their season or the catalyst for their dismantling. Bear in mind they are still notably missing their All-American striker in Oscar Horowitz.

D3tactico I'd love to know your predictions for the JHU v F&M game. Also Im a bit surprised to see Dickinson over WAC in your predictions. I see it the other way around and think WAC is a more complete team then Dickinson. Also do we have any update on Horwitz's health. The D3 world awaits his return #dondeestaOH5 ??

[Kuiper]

MAF Power Rankings (10/14)
1. Dickinson
2. F&M
3. Montclair
4. Hopkins
5. York
6. Muhles
7. PSU-Harrisburg
8. Lycoming
9. Messiah
10. Stevens

The USC coaches rankings differs a bit, putting York ahead of Hopkins and including Washington College and Swarthmore.  Montclair is #1 in Region IV and Stevens is ahead of PSU-Harrisburg in that ranking.  Messiah is omitted entirely.

Region V - Poll 6 - October 15, 2024
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Dickinson College    1    11-1-1
2    Franklin & Marshall College    2    7-0-6
3    York College (Pa.)    4    9-0-4
4    Johns Hopkins University    3    7-3-3
5    Washington College (Md.)    8    7-2-4
6    Muhlenberg College    5    7-3-3
7    Swarthmore College    7    9-3-1
8    Lycoming College    6    7-3-3

Region IV - Poll 6 - October 15, 2024
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Montclair State University    1    10-2-1
2    Rowan University    2    5-4-5
3    Stevens Institute of Technology    3    5-2-3
4    Penn State University-Harrisburg    4    11-3-1
5    Lebanon Valley College    6    7-4-2
6    Rutgers University-Newark    5    7-5-2
7    Stockton University    NR    5-4-4
8    Cairn University    NR    7-2-4

[SierraFD3soccer]

D3tactico I'd love to know your predictions for the JHU v F&M game. Also Im a bit surprised to see Dickinson over WAC in your predictions. I see it the other way around and think WAC is a more complete team then Dickinson. Also do we have any update on Horwitz's health. The D3 world awaits his return #dondeestaOH5 ??

For me, JHU v. F&M anyone's guess, but always a chess match between the most successful coaches in the CC. Both teams will be ready to play.

As to WC and Dickinson, I can see why as Dickinson, while soft, has only lost the Muhls and WC lost to McD. They tied earlier in the season. I definitely think the Muhls are better than McD. IMO Dickinson definitely better on paper right than WC. A lot more to play.

As to Horwitz, week to week, but, even if he gets back, he may need some time to get going. While he had an amazing last year, Kaliebe showed his quality which comes out even more without Oscar this year. He is going to be incredibly hard to replace next year. 

[d3tactico]

F&M v Hopkins will have the same flavor to the game as it has for the past 10 years. F&M will look to capitalize on errors from Hopkins, and will be sure to target their goalie who looks shakey in possession. Hopkins will look to keep possession and work to build up their chances. As for a prediction, I am hesitant to pick one over the other as I see this game playing out as a draw. This game will resemble the old Liverpool vs Man City games when they were both battling for the title. A gegenpressing team vs a overly possession based team.

[Hopkins92]

2-0 Dips.

tactico nailed this teams Achilles heal. The last 3 or so GKs* for Hopkins ranged from "could probably play in the field" to "highly competent with their feet."

In this system, he can't afford mistakes and once the trust issues start with those three, things get wobbly. They typically like to use the GK to bail out situations where the 2 man build-up hits a snag.

I predict a similar game to Rowan, where a competent press pops loose a goal at some point in the first half. Hop will try to be patient but they will start to get more risky and concede another somewhere in the second.

* - I just did a quick scan back to 2017 or so and each one of those goalies was excellent with the ball at their feet.

[Freddyfud]

2-0 Dips.

tactico nailed this teams Achilles heal. The last 3 or so GKs* for Hopkins ranged from "could probably play in the field" to "highly competent with their feet."

In this system, he can't afford mistakes and once the trust issues start with those three, things get wobbly. They typically like to use the GK to bail out situations where the 2 man build-up hits a snag.

I predict a similar game to Rowan, where a competent press pops loose a goal at some point in the first half. Hop will try to be patient but they will start to get more risky and concede another somewhere in the second.

* - I just did a quick scan back to 2017 or so and each one of those goalies was excellent with the ball at their feet.

Been watching Meyer and he is very good at his job.  It almost seems like others around him may not be on the same page yet.  If you are referring to Rowan's second goal you can see Meyer was directing the ball to go somewhere else before the give away.  Turns out he was probably right.  Hopefully he is not getting frustrated.

[Hopkins Walk-On]

2-0 Dips.

I predicted the same score in the weekly pool.

The last 3 or so GKs* for Hopkins ranged from "could probably play in the field" to "highly competent with their feet."
* - I just did a quick scan back to 2017 or so and each one of those goalies was excellent with the ball at their feet.

It's worth pointing out that Hopkins has switched goalies this year. The grad transfer who began the year as the starter, Loucas Costeas, is no longer starting. Sophomore Simon Turner has started the last four games. Based on my observations, neither is as skilled with their feet as the last few JHU goalies. Turner looks like his positioning is better but he is undersized (5'11"). I predict F&M scores at least one goal on a corner kick.

Been watching Meyer and he is very good at his job.  It almost seems like others around him may not be on the same page yet.  If you are referring to Rowan's second goal you can see Meyer was directing the ball to go somewhere else before the give away.  Turns out he was probably right.  Hopefully he is not getting frustrated.

My former teammates and I have complained amongst ourselves about the way Meyer is being used. He is probably the best player on the team and spends too much time playing even with the center backs. Even so, he leads the team in goals.

[justakidfromakron]

F&M v Hopkins will have the same flavor to the game as it has for the past 10 years. F&M will look to capitalize on errors from Hopkins, and will be sure to target their goalie who looks shakey in possession. Hopkins will look to keep possession and work to build up their chances. As for a prediction, I am hesitant to pick one over the other as I see this game playing out as a draw. This game will resemble the old Liverpool vs Man City games when they were both battling for the title. A gegenpressing team vs a overly possession based team.

So you are comparing Dan Wagner to Klopp? Seems a bit disrespectful to me, Klopp hasn't been to NCAA's 10 years in a row. As for Dips v JHU I think your analysis is correct, high pressing counter attack v Guardiola esq. possession. What surprises me year after year is JHU's inability to adapt or change within this matchup specifically. Dips always come out with high pressing forwards and a conservative back 4 or 5 at times and JHU has not been able to effectively break them down through possession or even play through them at times. (last years 4-2 Dips victory). Considering the Dips have won the past 3 matchups you have to wonder if Appleby has ever considered a more direct stye of play to bypass and mitigate the Dips greatest strength, their high press. Maybe it's pride or maybe its belief in their system but on paper there is no doubt JHU has the talent and personnel to win this matchup. Should be a great matchup this weekend, especially if Horwitz is healthy. I predict 3-1 Dips win. 

[justakidfromakron]

(last years 4-2 Dips victory).   

*4-3, although Dips were up 4-1 late in the second half.

[Hopkins92]

Meyer is great.

I've been on this site for 7 years stating that Hop needs to adjust their tactics when hitting a brick wall.

/fin

[SierraFD3soccer]

2-0 Dips.

I predicted the same score in the weekly pool.

The last 3 or so GKs* for Hopkins ranged from "could probably play in the field" to "highly competent with their feet."
* - I just did a quick scan back to 2017 or so and each one of those goalies was excellent with the ball at their feet.

It's worth pointing out that Hopkins has switched goalies this year. The grad transfer who began the year as the starter, Loucas Costeas, is no longer starting. Sophomore Simon Turner has started the last four games. Based on my observations, neither is as skilled with their feet as the last few JHU goalies. Turner looks like his positioning is better but he is undersized (5'11"). I predict F&M scores at least one goal on a corner kick.

Been watching Meyer and he is very good at his job.  It almost seems like others around him may not be on the same page yet.  If you are referring to Rowan's second goal you can see Meyer was directing the ball to go somewhere else before the give away.  Turns out he was probably right.  Hopefully he is not getting frustrated.

My former teammates and I have complained amongst ourselves about the way Meyer is being used. He is probably the best player on the team and spends too much time playing even with the center backs. Even so, he leads the team in goals.

Said it before somewhere, F&M probably has the tallest team in the conference. JHU not so much which is I guess is deliberate. Many teams are purposely looking for tall center backs.   They also push all the tall guys up for corners, long throws and free kicks.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Last year was definitely a crazy match with the high press working really well and Horwitz finishing 4 times with Kaliebe with all 4 assists.  They did almost get caught by the excellent play of Griffin Meyer who scored 3.

The year before at JHU they won 1-0 off a glancing header from Shay Adamson off a free kick. This was JHU's only loss all year. The defense played really well covering for each other. In 2021, they won 2-0 with late goals by Kaliebe and Horwitz who was still a back at that time.

I've said before, F&M has studied all the tapes and will have something to attack or adjust when playing JHU especially with a week off. JHU might try to get it up more direct to counter the press. I would as they have the players with the skill as opposed to always trying to build out of the back.

Further, depending how F&M does, they are not afraid to make changes in the second half like it did against the Muhls while up 4-1. Two years ago, down 1-0 against Gettysburg they made some major changes in the 2nd half and tied it and almost won that game with it changes in the 2nd half.  If Horwitz is not available, I would definitely watch for Adam Green up top. I just think he's figuring it out. In the past if the keeper went right, he went right. So many chances to slot goals.