Mid-Atlantic Region

[Freddyfud]

Been reading the comments about JHU and thinking.  What is the consensus on a successful season for them?  Making the NCAA tournament?  Going far in the NCAA tournament?

We can see their schedule for the rest of the regular season as well as their current NPI.  Is this considered a must win game vs F&M?

It seems the program is based on a system of play style.  If so everything from recruiting to training would seemingly support this.  Could it be the play style requires time to be mastered and perhaps this year is an anomaly with a mix of underclassmen and transfers?*  In any case unless it is truly do or die wouldn't it be unreasonable to abandon all of that for one game or even more?

Or are the criticisms in favor changing the play style permanently?  Even though they have qualified for the NCAA tournament and done pretty well in the past?

Sorry for all of the questions!

*I'll revert to the Meyer example again of directing teammates and finding spaces as a good deep playmaking 6 does.  For him the game seems to be auto mode but maybe this isn't the case yet for some of the others? 

[d3tactico]

I think its too harsh to rule this game against F&M as a must win, but there is a lot riding on this result. A combination of how other Centennial teams are performing, and the point in time of the season adds a really nasty layer of complexity for them in terms of how they might approach this match. F&M should be well aware of the fact that a win against Hop could hurt and help them as I absolutely see Hop making the playoffs, and if F&M beats them then I imagine there is a good chance they will be on the same side of the bracket come playoff time.

I have no problem with their style of play and I imagine coach Appleby doesn't either. I touched upon it in the past, but Hopkins has the luxury of recruiting pretty high caliber players due to their academic strength and program prestige. No matter the year they will have the talent to play good soccer, and its respectable that the coach is so adamant on playing a unique brand of soccer within the d3 space. However, their lack of adaptability is what hinders them the most. Their approach against a team like Swat should not be the same as an approach to face F&M/GBurg. Their stubbornness to not change their approach is naïve at best and arrogant at worst. While I do believe they have one of the most talented rosters in the Centennial, I don't think they are that much better than the rest to justify keeping possession in their own 18/high risk areas.

In regards to Meyer, in my opinion, he is one of if not the best pure midfielder in the Centennial. Kaliebe and Ethan Jarden I see more as forwards with how advanced they get and where they operate best.  Meyer, as a deep lying playmaker/regista is excellent in possession and is a fundamental component to Hopkins' success. Sure he lacks the traditional d3 size, but he walks into any starting 11 on any centennial team and probably the entire region.

[Hopkins Walk-On]

A successful season for Hopkins is contending for the Centennial title and making the NCAA tournament. I don't expect them to win the conference title every season but they should be in the mix and do well enough to make the NCAAs.

The reason why the game vs. F&M might be a "must win" is because I'm not sure they make the NCAAs if they lose and don't win the conference tournament.

As to the Hopkins system, they do seem to be less flexible/willing to change than many other teams. The system requires two very skilled center backs, two speedy outside backs with strong crossing ability, and a goal keeper with good ball skills. All of them need significant experience in the system to master it. This season, I would say they have one very skilled center back (Mikkel Andersen, the transfer from St. Joe's) and two excellent and experienced outside backs (Will Andrus and Logan Falzarano).

Meyer has been compensating for the lack of a second elite center back and staying too far in the rear to affect the play as much as he could.

What really makes Hopkins good is when they have a truly dynamic forward. Griffin Meyer on last year's team was an excellent example. Before him, you have to go all the way back to Achim Younker from 2016-2019.

As d3tactico indicated, they will always be decent but I'm not sure they will ever get over the hump unless they have all the components I mentioned and are willing to be a little more flexible in their approach.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Great questions and great analysis d3tactico. I typed this before I read yours.

JHU - Top level academics with a very competitive soccer program which can set up a kid for beginning of his live. Other positive is that that can bring in D1 grad students. A lot of envy from all of the other schools in the conf. Down sides is that JHU has a big barrier as to the pool of players since they have to be super smart much like Amherst or Williams. Also, I really think many 18 yr old players know that they may never or only see some field time, since JHU takes in so many older players coming in every year which would definitely think that some potential recruits not consider JHU. Interestingly JHU does not seem to take many int'l players like several other programs.

Question more is "Will NPI make coaches change styles if they are close to not making the NCAAs?" I believe not this year, but maybe next for some teams.

How JHU does against F&M may not be dealbreaker as they play Dickinson at the end of the year. Problem is that Dickinson has to continue to win in order to make it a big win. They definitely have a chance to win it all to automatically qual.

I think JHU is having problems with consistent offensive pressure, for ex. Gettysburg. When your lead scorer has 4 goals and is in the midfield that's tough.

In my opinion, many programs are now not interested in building from the back as there are so many issues - like can your keeper play well with his feet or can you break a press. F&M actually could do this a few years ago, but chose to hit the players in the midfield after maybe one or two passes in the back. Check out this -

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6747736/6335943b664b200d40e91944

F&M keeper consistently did this in HS, club and college which made the keeper a real option. Great way to break presses as long as you have solid players on the sidelines. Got a couple of other examples. During this period and unless F&M had a big lead, they would play out of the back and look to switch fields to the next level quickly.

 

[SierraFD3soccer]

Other examples. He could do it with his right and left foot and would flip the field quickly out of the back. Eventually, teams just decided not to press as much. They never did it through the middle which I think JHU does at times.

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6747736/618898e7b01870040c0b4418

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6747736/61b3641115f663081cc00dda

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6747736/61889d2d3df5ff0664e1a384

This one shows how dynamic Koa Kaliebe is.  F&M did not punt much unless he could see a clear adv like Koa who is very fast at the other end. That was Horwitz at the other end.  So some teams would get sucked into F&M's side and the keeper would go very long to a one v. one situation.

http://www.hudl.com/v/2JAu1w

[smoova]

Vanzela spent this past spring/summer trying to find 2025 GKs with strong foot skills - even going so far as asking recruits to send him highlight videos comprised entirely of game footage of them handling under pressure. The staff certainly understands the challenge presented by the system.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Vanzela spent this past spring/summer trying to find 2025 GKs with strong foot skills - even going so far as asking recruits to send him highlight videos comprised entirely of game footage of them handling under pressure. The staff certainly understands the challenge presented by the system.

Baltimore Blast legend! Great guy.

He actually coached my son at his club. Very, very good coach and probably the best coach in the immediate Balt. area. Son's club always played out the back mostly because their players were all D1 talent (only one went D3 which was Tufts) and could. In fact, son maybe punted 2 or 3 times in his last season with the club. He used his punting skills with his HS team as they did not have the same skills and had a very good downhill striker. GK at his club knew that he had to be good with his feet or would not play. Son definitely appreciated Will's coaching though not his main gk coach.

[Hopkins Walk-On]

Also, I really think many 18 yr old players know that they may never or only see some field time, since JHU takes in so many older players coming in every year which would definitely think that some potential recruits not consider JHU. Interestingly JHU does not seem to take many int'l players like several other programs.

I think people on this board and perhaps in the Centennial Conference writ large are making too big a deal out of this. The significant number of grad students on the Hopkins roster the past few years is a COVID-caused aberration. Hopkins has a number of excellent grad programs and several students chose to use their COVID-year eligibility to play while in grad school. JHU has not traditionally had large numbers of grad students on the roster. This is the last year for most players to use their COVID-year eligibility. I expect next year's roster to return to normal, with few, if any, grad students on it.

[Hopkins92]

I don't have a lot to add, as a lot of what has been covered is firmly in the "broken record" column for me. To summarize:

* - Talented roster every year due to a national footprint. Grad transfers have augmented in recent years, but the COVID years are drying up and should revert to the norm.
* - Season is considered a success if contending for the CC title and getting past the first round of the NCAA. (Which is not how the players and coaches look at it, I'm sure.)
* - Their success and overall quality turns on two issues - A reliable scorer and quality in the back, which includes the GK's foot skills.
* - They are stubborn in terms of their style, which limits their ceiling. Opposing teams all know what they are going to do and many alter their style to take advantage of this.
* - Overall, they are not likely to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament because their style requires extreme cool in pressure situations, which is only heightened by the time we get into November. It's a lot less stressful to just pin your ears back and press.

[Freddyfud]

However, their lack of adaptability is what hinders them the most. Their approach against a team like Swat should not be the same as an approach to face F&M/GBurg. Their stubbornness to not change their approach is naïve at best and arrogant at worst.

Can you name another D3 program with an identity at least partly based on a distinct playstyle but can adapt it game by game?

Sure he lacks the traditional d3 size

If this is really a D3 soccer thing especially in the context of a 6 then it would be one of the reasons some D3 soccer is unwatchable.  Not disagreeing as I think I am seeing some examples of this.  But for the sake of my sanity during free Saturday or Sunday afternoons with access to a streaming device I hope this is just a view of the minority.  Or I guess I will just have to follow the JHU schedule to watch Meyer.

[Hopkins92]

Freddy - I'm, obviously, not speaking for tactico, but...

It's not rocket science to see that trying to painstakingly work the ball out of the back, primarily by breaking the press through the middle, which we all know is high stakes, takes a lot of skill and poise.

These are smart kids. When that tactic(o) is being shutdown, popping the ball over the top of the press, or just lumping it up past the midfield altogether isn't all that difficult to fathom and execute. Hop is very good recovering the ball, so this isn't even stressing a weakness.

It's almost impossible for a high press team with little background or skillset in the back to play possession. The reverse is not true at all.

[Falconer]

Messiah leads unbeaten York, 3-0, at the half. The game is not as close as the score. This is the unquestionably the best the Falcons have played in 11 months. Total domination on both ends. York has one great shot, a rocket from outside the box right at the keeper. Otherwise they've struggled to generate chances. Messiah could very well have six goals. I don't exaggerate.

I hope York is actually as good as their excellent record. If so, then the Falcons have righted the ship. Even if not, they're playing beautiful soccer again.

[SierraFD3soccer]

At JHU v F&M, great 1st half. Both with goals. JHU all counter today which is working sort of. I think their goal was off an offside, but will have to see on the big screen. Adam Green got the F&M goal off a really nice shot while being heavily marked. Almost another, JHU GK  made a nice save.

[Hopkins92]

Gonna have to tip the cap to Coach Appleby... That switch of tactics is exactly what we've been talking about.

2-1 win in a pretty massive game in Baltimore.

[Hopkins92]

This isn't the first time Hop has adjusted like this... BUT... I feel like that was the most direct style of play I've seen from them in a very long time.

And, thing is... They were very dangerous with this style!! They were getting in on goal with a decent amount of frequency and had a number of chances.

The number of corner kicks for F&M was INSANE. 11-2 differential and at least 6 or so were in the last 15 minutes or so (don't check my math, but it was a LOT.)