Mid-Atlantic Region

[Falconer]

Nice results over the weekend for Swat, Eastern, Drew, Hopkins, LVC, Kings

Expected results from Messiah, Lyco, F&M (tied), Dickinson

Gettysburg faces off with Haverford today at 2pm.

Messiah travels to Hopkins on Monday night in what looks to be the game of the year thus far for this region and has critical implications for the region. Game time is set for 7pm.

If I had my crack at it I would predict Messiah pulls this one out 3-1 despite being on the road with a turf surface. Nick West and the now healthy Falcons will prove to be too much for a struggling Hopkins side that will throw everything they can at the Falcons. 1-1 at halftime followed by an early second half goal from Messiah. As JHU pushes to tie it Messiah will seal it with a counter hence a 3-1 prediction. This is a must watch game for anyone who has the time!

Last year's game in Grantham was a barnburner most of the way, with Hopkins actually outplaying the Falcons in stretches. There are at least three important changes from last year. (1) The Falcons generally don't play as well on turf (as you obviously know, MAF). (2) Nick West has emerged as perhaps the most dangerous attacker in D3 (as I have argued elsewhere; with better luck, he could have scored 4 goals instead of just 2 vs Hood last night). (3) Hopkins lost to graduation the man I regarded as the best keeper in D3 (lots of people shared that opinion, since he was voted 1st team AA). This is soccer and anything can happen on any given day, but I think (2) and (3) are larger factors than (1), so I share your view that the Falcons will win--more easily than they did last fall.

Another factor would favor JHU: the Falcons played last night, so it's quick turnaround. However, they used the whole bench (including the GK) for very long periods last night, especially in the 2nd half when I can't recall any starter being in the game the final 30 minutes. That's when Hood scored, incidentally. McCarty was obviously looking ahead to tomorrow night.

[Falconer]

I caught the 1st Half of Messiah's match with Hood. I thought Hood and its GK played well for the first 20 minutes but once Messiah broke thru the floodgates opened. I thought Messiah looked really solid but the kid Joe King might be a weakness for opponents to go after and attack / press. Under pressure he gave the ball away at least 3-4 times last night. Obviously, he is a solid player but maybe a bit suspect and someone Hopkins might want to go at. I believe he was the RB last night.

I didn't notice that problem with Joe King last night, but honestly I wasn't watching him that carefully and it's not as though Hood really threatened at all. The one goal they got, came in garbage time when all the starters were resting for the game tomorrow at JHU.

King has played both sides defensively this season, since Shay Quintin (an AA quality LB, IMO, but he won't get that honor since he's missed almost the entire season) hasn't played one minute since partway through the mugging against Cortland. Until last night, when Quintin started and looked his good old self, but (I assume owing to conditioning) he soon left and Joe King then switched sides (I think) from RB to LB. The same thing might have happened again in the second half. Mr Right, perhaps you are correct in your observations, or perhaps you were watching someone else part of the time, since I believe King switched sides a couple of times.

Generally, King has played LB in place of Quintin, but he's just as comfortable at RB, where he started both halves last night, but he also played partly at LB last night. Also in general, King has been terrific on both ends all season. A big surprise to me, at least. As a freshman, sometimes he played at outside back and sometimes he was a forward on the outside, so he's had collegiate experience on both ends of the field. I think he's most effective in the back, partly b/c (like Quintin) he is capable of bringing the ball very far forward and joining the offense as the situation warrants.

[Falconer]

For Paul Newman: Did you get a chance to stream the Falcon game last night? If so, what did you think of West? (You'd said you would try to watch his next game to see whether you agree with my view that he's the most dangerous attacker in D3 this season. I think you're a very knowledgeable and objective soccer fan, so I am honestly interested in your opinion.)

West sat on the bench more than usual, since the Falcons had a big lead and were looking ahead to a quick turnaround at JHU tomorrow night. While in there, however, I thought he looked as dangerous as he has all season. But, on the stream you might have missed his greatest play--a backheel shot from close in that was either blocked or saved--even in live action it happened so quickly and far from my seat that I didn't quite see it. It was a brilliant play, even though he didn't score. He also just missed a goal less than two minutes before he got the first goal. Neither of West's goals are shown on the highlights this time, but on the way home from the game one of the play-by-play guys still picked West as player of the game--after giving other guys fair consideration. West scored the first goal in each half, and (as the man said) that's what you want from your target.

If you didn't watch last night, Paul, try to watch tomorrow vs Hopkins. I'd bet many here will do that. If West plays nearly as well as he has been against everyone else, then you're in for a treat--whether or not he scores. But, he has scored at least one goal in every single game except opening night against Cortland--the one game where they weren't actually looking for him over the top. As far as I can tell from my seat in the stands, that strategic change apparently took place at halftime in the second game (vs Whitworth). That change turned a scoreless game into West's first hat trick.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Here is my view on the region's top 10 after Haverford dismantled Gettysburg today. The region is starting to take form and I think we have a well established top 6.

MAF Top 10
1. Messiah (8-0-1)
2. F&M (8-0-2)
3. Lyco (8-1-1)
T4. Dickinson (6-3-1)
T4. Hopkins (7-3-0)
6. Drew (8-2-0)
7. Gettysburg (5-3-1)
8. Eastern (6-2-1)
9. Swat (6-3-1)
10. LVC (5-3-1)

Others: Manhattanville (7-3-0), Moravian (5-2-2), Haverford (4-4-0)

[Shooter McGavin]

This is how the region sits in my eyes after this past weekend of play. 1 through 7 stays the same with some shifting at 8 through 10. 

Shooters Power Rankings
1. Messiah (8-0-1)--Still the clear number 1 in the region with a road trip to Hopkins up next up for the Falcons
2. F&M (8-0-2)--Close behind Messiah but a draw with Swat keeps them in sole possession of the second slot
3. Lycoming (8-1-1)--6 straight wins for the Warriors has them in 3rd place through 10 games
4. Drew (8-2-0)--Would have liked to see them faceoff with NYU as the strength of schedule will drop without that one on the schedule
5. Dickinson (6-3-1)--Just a smidge ahead of Hopkins in my view
6. Hopkins (7-3-0)--A result vs Messiah would be huge
7. Gettysburg (5-3-1)--Struggling to score goals would have me worried if I was a Bullet fan
8. Eastern (6-2-1)--Strength of schedule is the biggest concern for the Eagles
9. Swat (6-3-1)--Great result to stay in the mix as they tied F&M over the weekend
10. Moravian (5-2-2)--Challenged themselves in the non-conference and doesn't get easier by traveling to Lyco next

Others: Manhattanville (7-3-0), LVC (5-3-1), Mules (3-3-2), Fords (4-4-0)

[D3soccerwatcher]

Nice results over the weekend for Swat, Eastern, Drew, Hopkins, LVC, Kings

Expected results from Messiah, Lyco, F&M (tied), Dickinson

Gettysburg faces off with Haverford today at 2pm.

Messiah travels to Hopkins on Monday night in what looks to be the game of the year thus far for this region and has critical implications for the region. Game time is set for 7pm.

If I had my crack at it I would predict Messiah pulls this one out 3-1 despite being on the road with a turf surface. Nick West and the now healthy Falcons will prove to be too much for a struggling Hopkins side that will throw everything they can at the Falcons. 1-1 at halftime followed by an early second half goal from Messiah. As JHU pushes to tie it Messiah will seal it with a counter hence a 3-1 prediction. This is a must watch game for anyone who has the time!

Last year's game in Grantham was a barnburner most of the way, with Hopkins actually outplaying the Falcons in stretches. There are at least three important changes from last year. (1) The Falcons generally don't play as well on turf (as you obviously know, MAF). (2) Nick West has emerged as perhaps the most dangerous attacker in D3 (as I have argued elsewhere; with better luck, he could have scored 4 goals instead of just 2 vs Hood last night). (3) Hopkins lost to graduation the man I regarded as the best keeper in D3 (lots of people shared that opinion, since he was voted 1st team AA). This is soccer and anything can happen on any given day, but I think (2) and (3) are larger factors than (1), so I share your view that the Falcons will win--more easily than they did last fall.

Another factor would favor JHU: the Falcons played last night, so it's quick turnaround. However, they used the whole bench (including the GK) for very long periods last night, especially in the 2nd half when I can't recall any starter being in the game the final 30 minutes. That's when Hood scored, incidentally. McCarty was obviously looking ahead to tomorrow night.

On paper it doesn't look like this should be that much of a game.  #1(USC)/#2 (D3S.com) nationally ranked  and undefeated Messiah versus unranked JHU with 3 losses already this season.  JHU has lost 2 of it's last 4 games.  And JHU played a hard fought game on Saturday night versus a .500 team in Muhlenberg.  A game where JHU was badly outshot but they still managed to barely eke out a 1-0 win with a late goal. So unlike Messiah they were not able to rest their starters last night.

[daddyEzK]

This is how the region sits in my eyes after this past weekend of play. 1 through 7 stays the same with some shifting at 8 through 10. 

Shooters Power Rankings
1. Messiah (8-0-1)--Still the clear number 1 in the region with a road trip to Hopkins up next up for the Falcons
2. F&M (8-0-2)--Close behind Messiah but a draw with Swat keeps them in sole possession of the second slot
3. Lycoming (8-1-1)--6 straight wins for the Warriors has them in 3rd place through 10 games
4. Drew (8-2-0)--Would have liked to see them faceoff with NYU as the strength of schedule will drop without that one on the schedule
5. Dickinson (6-3-1)--Just a smidge ahead of Hopkins in my view
6. Hopkins (7-3-0)--A result vs Messiah would be huge
7. Gettysburg (5-3-1)--Struggling to score goals would have me worried if I was a Bullet fan
8. Eastern (6-2-1)--Strength of schedule is the biggest concern for the Eagles
9. Swat (6-3-1)--Great result to stay in the mix as they tied F&M over the weekend
10. Moravian (5-2-2)--Challenged themselves in the non-conference and doesn't get easier by traveling to Lyco next

Others: Manhattanville (7-3-0), LVC (5-3-1), Mules (3-3-2), Fords (4-4-0)

Fords have now beaten two of your top ten (and lost in OT to F&M)  Early woes (two losses on very wet small turf fields) may have helped this  team to get it itself together to challenge in the Centennial Conference.

[FelixCloudy]

 
Fords have now beaten two of your top ten (and lost in OT to F&M)  Early woes (two losses on very wet small turf fields) may have helped this  team to get it itself together to challenge in the Centennial Conference.

Agree... also interesting that the Fords held JHU and Getty scoreless. 

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, I've got my own problems....watching Kenyon completely spit the bit against CWRU (a very good team btw) in an embarrassment for Lords nation...and then hearing about playing half the next game with 10 men and barely squeaking by a 2-7-1 Denison squad. 

I did not catch any of the Hood game...or any games this past weekend with family in town.  I will try to catch part of the game tonight. 

I don't have any doubts about how good West is and/or that he is a serious POY candidate especially if Messiah gets deep in the tournament.  What I cannot do is put him in any historical perspective as my knowledge really begins around 2012-2013.  I do maintain that Koh and Lopez for Chicago are very, very good...and I believe Emory has an excellent player as well who has had a strong career.  I may be too out of touch, but I'm actually not aware of who the major D3 superstars are currently (beyond those named, Vegter, maybe the kid at Lynchburg who rudy has mentioned).  I can't think a single player in all of NESCAC who is truly dominant above all others.  Tufts is stacked with very good players and I think will be very difficult for anyone to beat come tourney time, but there is not one name on their team that in my mind stands out above all others.  Not sure there is a Santos, Hoppenot or Kayne or even Majumder, but they are deep and seem to have a formula that is pretty tough to unlock especially with the confidence of their recent years of success at their backs.

At any rate, I'll let you know when I've developed more of an impression with West.  BTW, is his brother the Messiah GK in 2013 and 2014?

And have we exhausted all of the Robbins crew, or are there one or two more on their way from North Carolina???

[FelixCloudy]

At any rate, I'll let you know when I've developed more of an impression with West.  BTW, is his brother the Messiah GK in 2013 and 2014?

Yes, Nick's older brother Brandon was the GK at Messiah and is now the head coach of the women's team at Eastern. http://www.27east.com/news/article.cfm/general-interest-eh/91990/west-finds-perfect-fit-at-messiah. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rutgers-Camden @ Haverford for TUES 2 OCT has been PPD.  With the weather and the field situations so far this season; teams scrambling to make up or fit in, who knows if this will even be played in the future.

[PaulNewman]

Falconer....I did catch large portions of the game last night.  First, kind of a strange one....Messiah mostly playing and probing in the JHU half for the entire game with JHU having limited shots, but that said JHU easily could (and maybe should) have scored a couple more on great missed chances.  The way regulation ended I too was surprised that JHU was able to hang on for the draw.

As for West, I actually missed the goals and glanced up in time to see the celebrations.  I know that dogpile tradition must go way back for Messiah, but every time I see it I'm surprised that there are no injuries.  I must be really, really old as I both don't really get it and if the coach would be terrified of a serious injury.  At any rate, I was definitely impressed with West.  Two goals inside of 10 minutes to pull Messiah level speaks volumes, even if the goals did look a bit like right place at the right time (which of course is part of the deal with great players).  My assessment is that he is powerful, very quick with impressive initial burst of speed in addition to his obvious top end speed, shiftier than I expected such that the combo of his acceleration in any direction combined with a feint here and there makes him an extremely difficult cover.  JHU obviously was very focused on him and he still was close to breaking free on multiple occasions.  I also was impressed with his decision-making, and how quickly he will make a good pass to someone in open space when he does feel reasonable containment on him.  He appears tireless and relentless as well, so he is primed to take advantage of any loss of coverage which is bound to happen even with good teams at least a few times over 90 minutes.

So, in short, I endorse your praise while still leaving the historical rankings to you and others.  I do wonder why he is having such a breakout season this year and wasn't so obviously dominant in prior years.

[Hopkins92]

I'm no expert on Messiah/West, but I'm pretty sure moving him to a central striker role, as opposed to having him out wide, is a major factor.

[Mr.Right]

He also looks a ton stronger especially on the ball

[Falconer]

I'm obliged to have your opinion, Paul--a measured, articulate assessment of what you saw. And, I'm no less obliged to have the other opinions too.

The sudden increase in West's productivity (he was plenty productive in 2017, but already has more goals than he scored all last season) is undoubtedly a result of two things. (1) Moving him from the wing into the middle, which I admit I didn't agree with at first. (So glad to have been so wrong.) (2) Looking for him regularly over the top. As far as I can tell, that didn't start until the second half of the second game (vs Whitworth), but of course I'm not privy to conversations on the sidelines and maybe I just didn't see it earlier. Traditionally, the Falcons go over the top only once in a while. They almost never did it in the Brandt years. I sense it was almost point of honor for Brandt always to stick with winning the battle of wills against an opponent, by imposing his brand of beautiful soccer on each and every opponent, just as it was a point of honor for Bob Knight to disdain fast breaks and zone defense and full-court pressure and always to stick with winning the battle of wills by imposing the motion offense on each and every opponent. McCarty has been a bit more willing to dump and run, though obviously it's not become a bad habit. West makes that such an obvious option that you can expect it now in any game. JHU did a terrific job preventing it--especially Cole Rosenberger, who with the GK get the game balls IMO. The keeper was a lot better than I had expected, given the fact that they graduated the AA who played ahead of him.

What the change to target did, which I hadn't anticipated, is to reveal West's full skill set. We always knew he was dangerously fast and inexhaustibly energetic, such that he could burn you in the final minute or the opening minute just as easily. We always knew that he could initiate assists--and sometimes goals for himself--from either sideline. We knew he could mix it up inside, too, when perchance that's where the ball sent. What I didn't know (let me change to I from we) is that he could score on free kicks and was such an extraordinarily dangerous man with the ball at his feet near the box--the type of play that DMac was so good at. He's such a deadly shooter from any reasonable distance with either foot, moving in any direction except backwards. I had not realized that before. (It's instructive to compare his shot percentages with the two-headed striker at Chicago. The difference jumps right out at you.) In other words, as an attacker he has no weaknesses, not even in the air even if that's not his strength (he got one with his head last night). And, he's just extraordinarily good at some things. The complete package, at least at a D3 level.

I've never seen anything quite like him, at least not on the Falcons since several years before Brandt started coaching. There was indeed another striker a very long time ago who had huge scoring numbers, but I never saw him play--and, I think the Falcons had not yet joined the NCAA at that point, so the context was not comparable.

I'll try not to revisit this topic again myself, unless perhaps it's after the season and cases are being made for possible POY. Thanks to all who indulged me or tolerated my noise about this.